I hope Italy can get this under control because it starts looking worse every day.
Italian daily coronavirus deaths jump 57% to 366
Italian daily coronavirus deaths jump 57% to 366
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Singer3000
Member
The month long lockdown in North Italy is in my view something that will end up being repeated pretty much everywhere. It all just depends on timing differences of when the peak is forecast in each place. For example, in the UK this is forecast for Easter week.
Aaargh. I just got the latest guidelines from my hospital. They say tests are limited. Only test people that are High Risk, meaning Fever and Cough, and who have had contact with an infected person, or traveled to certain countries. Seems to ignore the fact that it is already in the US and probably spreading quickly....
I would post the entire document, but it specifically says it is confidential and not to distribute. Some key info, however, is 73% of cases over age 40, Median age 51. Time of progression to severe pulmonary symptoms is 5-7 days. Roughly half the patients accociated with more severe disease do NOT have other comorbidities....
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Italy is unbelievable. I wonder whether US goes the way of Italy or South Korea.
Italay cases are going up 20%+ daily. Even though, protocol is for anyone with symptoms to isolate at home and come to hospital only after some days / if things get bad. So, they are not testing much - which accounts for very high fatality rate.
People visiting Italy and going back to their home countries are reporting infection. So, looks like Italy is as bad a China in terms of spreading he virus now.
Not sure how much weight I put into that graph.
That particular figure shows Iran is the model county everyone should be copying.
Are they doing stool tests?
Is Prevotella contemporaneous with severity of Covid19?
https://www.researchgate.net/public...es_in_China_and_Hong-Kong_shows_unequivocally
EVNow
Well-Known Member
We should just ignore Iran numbers at this point. I don't think they are trying to test … they have a completely break down of their healthcare system. Photos of people fallen in front of the hospital with none to take care. Ambulance not responding etc.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Canadians and one Australian tested positive after returning from Vegas and Colorado.
linux-works
Active Member
well, this, here ... its a *kind* of a test.
more of a challenge, I would say.
try your skill! how badly do you want that?
note, a Taco Bell is just a block away. if that matters.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Andy O
Member
You might consider ocean cruise lines at the same time. There are tremendous cruise ship last minute bargains available today.
(I won't be taking one.)
sundaymorning
Active Member
OLDEST PATIENT to RECOVER from CV
There’s been a lot of chatter about the success of plasma therapy being used to combat Corona Virus, not everyone labeled “old” or “at risk” due to having a history of other medical problems will succumb to the disease, this 100 year old man with a compromised health made it through just fine.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost...virus-the-oldest-patient-to-beat-illness/amp/
A 100-year-old Chinese man has fully recovered from the coronavirus, making him the oldest known patient to pull through the deadly illness, state media reported.
The centenarian patient, who marked his milestone birthday last month, was discharged Saturday from a hospital in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
He was admitted to Hubei’s Maternity and Child Health Care hospital on Feb. 24 with the coronavirus infection, the report said.
The man suffered from underlying health issues such as Alzheimer’s disease, hypertension and heart failure, the outlet said.
He was treated using antiviral medication, convalescent plasma therapy and traditional Chinese medicine, according to the report. The elderly man was then cleared along with more than 80 other patients Saturday to leave the hospital.
There’s been a lot of chatter about the success of plasma therapy being used to combat Corona Virus, not everyone labeled “old” or “at risk” due to having a history of other medical problems will succumb to the disease, this 100 year old man with a compromised health made it through just fine.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost...virus-the-oldest-patient-to-beat-illness/amp/
A 100-year-old Chinese man has fully recovered from the coronavirus, making him the oldest known patient to pull through the deadly illness, state media reported.
The centenarian patient, who marked his milestone birthday last month, was discharged Saturday from a hospital in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
He was admitted to Hubei’s Maternity and Child Health Care hospital on Feb. 24 with the coronavirus infection, the report said.
The man suffered from underlying health issues such as Alzheimer’s disease, hypertension and heart failure, the outlet said.
He was treated using antiviral medication, convalescent plasma therapy and traditional Chinese medicine, according to the report. The elderly man was then cleared along with more than 80 other patients Saturday to leave the hospital.
Singer3000
Member
I’ve re-read Elon’s most recent tweets several times to make sure I’m not missing something that justifies him interjecting against experts in a field outside his own.
But I don’t get his point. Of course there’s a natural end to exponential growth. No one is suggesting there will be more infections than humans. Not even close.
Depending on the country, health authorities are modelling an absolute worst case infection rate of 60-80%. And this is without preventive and delaying measures. But 10% - 20% seems a reasonable base case.
As for his hope that lots of mild infections got missed. Well that’s certainly true in some places where there are 5% mortality rates. But the WHO say there’s little evidence of it in China generally and most professionals seem comfortable forecasting circa 0.5% if we’re lucky but probably closer to 1% CFR.
As for hospitalisation rates, lots of dispute about that but if you set very wide bands of 5-15% you probably cover it. Length of stay is as much of a problem, seems quite a lot of people need 2-3 weeks before discharge. Relative demographics will be a driver. Central China has bad pollution and lots smokers. Italy has lots of smokers and an older population. The US has much higher rates of Type 2 diabetes. The UK and Australia have particularly high rates of asthma.
Elon is a smart man. Has he not done the sums to see what happens to health systems when you multiply out those numbers in a short space of time? Good to see Andrea James gently nudging him to think again.
But I don’t get his point. Of course there’s a natural end to exponential growth. No one is suggesting there will be more infections than humans. Not even close.
Depending on the country, health authorities are modelling an absolute worst case infection rate of 60-80%. And this is without preventive and delaying measures. But 10% - 20% seems a reasonable base case.
As for his hope that lots of mild infections got missed. Well that’s certainly true in some places where there are 5% mortality rates. But the WHO say there’s little evidence of it in China generally and most professionals seem comfortable forecasting circa 0.5% if we’re lucky but probably closer to 1% CFR.
As for hospitalisation rates, lots of dispute about that but if you set very wide bands of 5-15% you probably cover it. Length of stay is as much of a problem, seems quite a lot of people need 2-3 weeks before discharge. Relative demographics will be a driver. Central China has bad pollution and lots smokers. Italy has lots of smokers and an older population. The US has much higher rates of Type 2 diabetes. The UK and Australia have particularly high rates of asthma.
Elon is a smart man. Has he not done the sums to see what happens to health systems when you multiply out those numbers in a short space of time? Good to see Andrea James gently nudging him to think again.
I don’t know whether stocks is the right vehicle of investment with airlines right now. Do you remember whether there were any rumors of airline industry handouts by the government at that time?
Uncoordinated "rolling quarantines" are going to be so useless. China already has cases where people returned to quarantined areas with virus they picked up overseas. It's going to be impossible to control the pandemic in a reasonable fashion unless countries all coordinate and initiate quarantine at the same time. Otherwise people will keep reinfecting previously quarantined areas.
N. Korea fires weapons after threatening 'momentous' action
Do they really have to do this right now of all times? Can’t this be postponed like everything else due to Covid-19?
Do they really have to do this right now of all times? Can’t this be postponed like everything else due to Covid-19?
Well, that makes good show for internal audience, who might need a distraction from the virus. It is fascinating to see how different countries' media spaces react, especially the dictatorships...
“Isolation has finally paid off!”
Similar threads
