Coronavirus

[Eugene Ash]

Short version: I'm looking for different points of view and opinions on a portfolio shift I'm contemplating; namely to move all the money in market tracking funds into cash for (guess of the day) 3-9 months until I see evidence that the US response is focused on the medical crisis, rather than the potential political and/or economic crisis.
..........

As Greater Seattle inhabitant, love your "don't test - don't tell" recap. Exactly how i feel. ~1200 tests done so far, it looks like in WA, with >10% positive. Happy to see private sector step [Bill] step up and fund testing efforts, as people are uneasy, especially ones with symptoms.

Now, my thinking:
Yes, with a botched response like this, we'll see a body count, a large body count of most vulnerable. We might even go into a recession. I think it is at least 6-9 months ordeal, optimistically. My horizon is long, and I'm a net buyer, so I am thinking of pulling forward my 401k contributions to the next 3-4 months, which will be ugly. My data points (I work with large companies, including internationally): a lot of companies have cancelled travel, meetings, some - coming to office.

I think everything will be on sale, especially highly-globalized internationals, who will feel supply chain shocks. TSLA is in better position than most auto manufacturers.
Plus, we'd possibly see inflation coming back, at least as a blip, with all that commodities stockpiling rush.

However, once vaccine is found, stock market and we will rebound quick and smarter too. Ignoring CDC, not stock-piling tests, ignoring the whole crisis will sink this sitting President.

So I stay invested, and pulling forward tax-advantaged contributions.

 

[EVNow]

There has been some talk of people infecting others before they are symptomatic. This pre-pub paper suggests that is the case.

So, important to establish general social distancing rather than just isolation of known cases.

Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections : COVID19

The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset.
​

 

[Singer3000]

Uncoordinated "rolling quarantines" are going to be so useless. China already has cases where people returned to quarantined areas with virus they picked up overseas. It's going to be impossible to control the pandemic in a reasonable fashion unless countries all coordinate and initiate quarantine at the same time. Otherwise people will keep reinfecting previously quarantined areas.

They are not useless if they prevent localised spikes that swamp the health system

 

[KSilver2000]

I gotta hand it to Elon. He‘ll probably be the last CEO in the Silicon Valley to suggest that non-essential employees work from home.

Even my friend, who does not let his team work from home on Fridays while the rest of the department did, finally caved in.

 

[linux-works]

another company I had an interview with (not recently) - I asked them what their telecommute policy was. the hiring manager said something like 'I prefer everyone be here, at the office'. I asked about the occasional time to be home for a apartment maintenance issue or something like that - and he said that would be ok, on the odd occasion.

I didn't like the vibe I was getting so I declined the job.

I wonder if that company is now singing a different tune.

they all BETTER be, for those that *can* work at home. this "I need to WATCH you work" BS is now over. fully over, until the virus gets under control. sitting shoulder to shoulder - that's also now gone.

and if employers force people to be too close - and someone gets very sick - LAWSUIT. yes, seriously. if the employee can't decline, then its on the employer.

this is gonna get ugly. I know silicon valley. the SV of 2020 is just not ready for this. 30 years ago, yes, the work-at-home we-trust-you mentality was in full swing, but last few decades have been highly regressive.

 

[bkp_duke]

As someone that manages a company that all works remotely, I can appreciate the hesitation to allow people to work from home. Some people simply take advantage of it.

On MANY an occasion I've caught people in their car when they were supposed to be at their desk working on a client issue. This was without giving their manager the appropriate heads up of "hey, gotta run and pick up my kid real quick", etc. Since then we had to implement a 3 strikes policy and start doing random phone calls to staff when they are not active in their respective chat rooms. Sad, but necessary.

 

[linux-works]

I prefer to give employees freedom, and as long as they are getting their job done, its not the boss' job to babysit.

it varies a lot based on the kind of work you do. I write software, sometimes do hardware integration, but I can do all the sw stuff at home and my home hardware lab is better than most bay area companies - so I don't mind doing that kind of work at home, too.

when you are up at 6am, logging in, working until maybe 9am, hitting the road for the office, working thru lunch (grab some food, take it back to your workstation), and then there's a 6pm conf call with china that you must attend. when you work those kinds of hours for a flat salary - no one wants a babysitter for a boss. if you don't meet your milestones, you won't do well at any company.

the managers that want to watch over you are the ones that usually have the problem, sorry to say.

but again, it highly depends on the work and dedication of the employees. but I have not found dedication to *increase* when you are on a leash...

 

[MC3OZ]

another company I had an interview with (not recently) - I asked them what their telecommute policy was. the hiring manager said something like 'I prefer everyone be here, at the office'. I asked about the occasional time to be home for a apartment maintenance issue or something like that - and he said that would be ok, on the odd occasion.

I didn't like the vibe I was getting so I declined the job.

I wonder if that company is now singing a different tune.

they all BETTER be, for those that *can* work at home. this "I need to WATCH you work" BS is now over. fully over, until the virus gets under control. sitting shoulder to shoulder - that's also now gone.

and if employers force people to be too close - and someone gets very sick - LAWSUIT. yes, seriously. if the employee can't decline, then its on the employer.

this is gonna get ugly. I know silicon valley. the SV of 2020 is just not ready for this. 30 years ago, yes, the work-at-home we-trust-you mentality was in full swing, but last few decades have been highly regressive.

I was on a conference call with a customer this morning, 2 of the staff had already switched to working from home...
I've worked from home for 7+ years..
Companies need to trust their staff, and there are ways of determining if they are getting the job done...
Not everyone can work from home, but face-to-face meetings are over-valued ..
The last time I had a video conference with my work was 3 years ago...
We go out to lunch once a year....
95% of communication is email with 5% phone for urgent matters...
Places like schools, hospitals, factories and call centres, shops a certain amount of face-to-face human interaction is needed.
Office/IT work, it depends on the job...

What office workers working from home will do is reduce patronage on normally crowed peak hour public transport, that is going to slow down the spread even if some people still need to commute into the office... No one will sit next to anyone on a train, if there is a spare seat elsewhere.

 

[adiggs]

As Greater Seattle inhabitant, love your "don't test - don't tell" recap. Exactly how i feel. ~1200 tests done so far, it looks like in WA, with >10% positive. Happy to see private sector step [Bill] step up and fund testing efforts, as people are uneasy, especially ones with symptoms.

Now, my thinking:
Yes, with a botched response like this, we'll see a body count, a large body count of most vulnerable. We might even go into a recession. I think it is at least 6-9 months ordeal, optimistically. My horizon is long, and I'm a net buyer, so I am thinking of pulling forward my 401k contributions to the next 3-4 months, which will be ugly. My data points (I work with large companies, including internationally): a lot of companies have cancelled travel, meetings, some - coming to office.

I think everything will be on sale, especially highly-globalized internationals, who will feel supply chain shocks. TSLA is in better position than most auto manufacturers.
Plus, we'd possibly see inflation coming back, at least as a blip, with all that commodities stockpiling rush.

However, once vaccine is found, stock market and we will rebound quick and smarter too. Ignoring CDC, not stock-piling tests, ignoring the whole crisis will sink this sitting President.

So I stay invested, and pulling forward tax-advantaged contributions.

Thanks. I'm seeing and expecting something similar.

My trigger to get back in and ride the market up and down wherever it goes isn't a price or sentiment on the market side - it's what I see going on with the US medical response. I need to see sustained actions that create confidence in me, instead of what I've been seeing which have the effect of destroying confidence for me.

Two actions I can think of:
1) CDC back to daily briefings with CDC medical experts doing the briefing. White House is in the background providing the experts support and not doing status briefings. (Makes it clear this is a medical problem, with medical people handling the problem, with the politicians providing all the resource support the experts need)

2) Tests for the virus become widely and easily available. Not just people with pneumonia to tell if they've got it this way, or some other; ultimately easily enough available that it's just about anybody can ask in.


Anyway - that's how I see it, and am playing it.

 

[renim]

As far as I know, just nasal and back of throat swabs.

Thankyou

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Informative, timely, and very recent-- and under 30 minutes (from 60 Minutes Australia):

Yet another reason we should all be happy that Tesla is nearly 100% vegan now, and for everyone to stop buying, killing, and eating animals . . . .

More details for those that care about our only planet's future:

COWSPIRACY: The Sustainability Secret

 

[linux-works]

Yet another reason we should all be happy that Tesla is nearly 100% vegan now, and for everyone to stop buying, killing, and eating animals . . . .

one thing I never quite understood: if we're not supposed to eat animals, how come they're made of meat, then?

I do support PETA, though (people eating tasty animals).

 

[azaz]

Elon’s hubris at times is amazing and still out of control. Those tweets are embarrassing and professional epidemiologist were laughing at his hubris on Twitter today. Every single epidemiologist is warning how precarious our HC system is but Elon from his Bev Hills mansion is here to not just say something like people should stay calm but to flat out call them dumb. Childish.

 

[shootformoon]

I wonder where to find reliable stats for critical cases% death % in each age group in different areas/countries?

 

[sundaymorning]

Conditions are improving in China, plasma therapy is working. With less and less patients entering everyday China starts to closedown its hospitals, from CNBC.


Coronavirus live updates: Wuhan shuts down 11 makeshift hospitals as China cases slow

You can see that China has a game plan to tackle this virus: from quarantine to opening massive amounts of hospitals to effective treatment that goes beyond providing patients with IV and oxygen. Believe me when I say their treatment works for patients.

• China reports 40 new confirmed cases and 22 additional deaths as of Mar. 8, bringing the total number of cases in the mainland to 80,735 and the cumulative death toll to 3,119.
• Following the discharge of most patients, 11 of the 14 makeshift hospitals in Wuhan that were built for treatment of the new coronavirus have closed, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said.
• In the U.S., the number of confirmed cases now stands at 511, according to data compiled by NBC News, and there are at least 21 deaths attributable to the virus.

 

[Fact Checking]

New There has been some talk of people infecting others before they are symptomatic. This pre-pub paper suggests that is the case.

Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission is common with most viruses, including the flu. AFAIK current flu epidemiological models are adding about 10%-20% extra transmission due to this.

China and South Korea would probably not have been able to contain the outbreak so quickly if this was the dominant transmission channel though, South Korea new infections dropped down from a peak rate of 40%-50% to just 3.7% yesterday:

# "South.Korea" daily new infections log:
Feb 18:     1 new cases,     30 total cases ( +3.2%) 
Feb 19:    27 new cases,     57 total cases (+46.5%) 
Feb 20:    53 new cases,    110 total cases (+47.7%)  #
Feb 21:    96 new cases,    206 total cases (+46.3%)  ###
Feb 22:   232 new cases,    438 total cases (+52.8%)  ########
Feb 24:   397 new cases,    835 total cases (+47.4%)  #############
Feb 25:   144 new cases,    979 total cases (+14.6%)  #####
Feb 26:   284 new cases,   1263 total cases (+22.4%)  #########
Feb 27:   505 new cases,   1768 total cases (+28.5%)  #################
Feb 28:   571 new cases,   2339 total cases (+24.4%)  ###################
Feb 29:   813 new cases,   3152 total cases (+25.7%)  ############################
Mar 01:   586 new cases,   3738 total cases (+15.6%)  ####################
Mar 02:   599 new cases,   4337 total cases (+13.8%)  ####################
Mar 03:   851 new cases,   5188 total cases (+16.4%)  #############################
Mar 04:   435 new cases,   5623 total cases ( +7.7%)  ###############
Mar 05:   467 new cases,   6090 total cases ( +7.6%)  ################
Mar 06:   505 new cases,   6595 total cases ( +7.6%)  #################
Mar 07:   449 new cases,   7044 total cases ( +6.3%)  ###############
Mar 08:   272 new cases,   7316 total cases ( +3.7%)  #########

So, important to establish general social distancing rather than just isolation of known cases.

This will happen generally, people will self-quarantine by choice usually proportional to the level of outbreak in their own areas of living, which drops R0 significantly.

Fast incubation time also helps in terms of shortening the 'social distance' a particular host can travel before onset of the symptoms, and limits transmissions 'only' to the closest contacts such as family. There were documented cases of infected people traveling and infecting no-one on the plane/bus they were traveling on.

One important policy measure appears to be to close schools: most children appear to be asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, and they are the backdoor transmission channels into many families and communities. Chinese schools are still closed.

 

[KSilver2000]

Word from the the CA Office of Emergency Services regarding the docking of the ship in Oakland, CA. (The plan that Ben Carson, who was tasked by the WH to lead, could not say what it was when asked by Stephanopoulos on TV today)

Update on Grand Princess Cruise Ship – Cal OES News

Looks like they tested about 50 people the other day, and that is all they’re testing before disembarking the ~2,500 passengers.
A lot more confirmed numbers coming right up.

 

[sundaymorning]

Word from the the CA Office of Emergency Services regarding the docking of the ship in Oakland, CA. (The plan that Ben Carson, who was tasked by the WH to lead, could not say what it was when asked by Stephanopoulos on TV today)

Update on Grand Princess Cruise Ship – Cal OES News

Looks like they tested about 50 people the other day, and that is all they’re testing before disembarking the ~2,500 passengers.
A lot more confirmed numbers coming right up.

These passengers will not be released into the general public. Passengers who require acute medical treatment and hospitalization will be transported to health care facilities in California. If passengers do not require acute medical care following health screenings, those who are California residents will go to a federally run isolation facility within California for testing and isolation, while non-Californians will be transported by the federal government to facilities in other states. The crew will be quarantined and treated aboard the ship, but importantly, the ship will only stay in Port of Oakland for the duration of disembarkment. This ship will depart Oakland as soon as possible and will remain elsewhere for the duration of the crew’s quarantine.

 

[Causalien]

Word from the the CA Office of Emergency Services regarding the docking of the ship in Oakland, CA. (The plan that Ben Carson, who was tasked by the WH to lead, could not say what it was when asked by Stephanopoulos on TV today)

Update on Grand Princess Cruise Ship – Cal OES News

Looks like they tested about 50 people the other day, and that is all they’re testing before disembarking the ~2,500 passengers.
A lot more confirmed numbers coming right up.

From an outsiders point of view. It looks like usa is deliberately messing this up and actually wants the virus to spread.

 

[deffu]

From an outsiders point of view. It looks like usa is deliberately messing this up and actually wants the virus to spread.

While I agree response from u.s gov has been slow and disappointing. I do not believe it's becoming a pandemic in America. we are not going to see a repeat of Italy/S. Korea here in the united states.