Here's the correct data and link, as of this posting:
3605 deaths out of 99963 cases.
2020 coronavirus pandemic in Asia - Wikipedia
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Here's the correct data and link, as of this posting:
3605 deaths out of 99963 cases.
2020 coronavirus pandemic in Asia - Wikipedia
You'll have to forgive her, she has been busy. After a four-year wait Tesla started deliveries in Iceland so she picked up her Model 3.
Nafnlaus on Twitter
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Well, a sporting event I've been preparing for has been cancelled. Looks like the organizers got a call from the government.
I can finally shed all my social responsibilities and hole up.
Where I live there;s only 50 cases, so this move is pretty drastic on top of that. I heard of army deployment in the 3 major cities so I expect quarantine measures to be announced soon.
I can finally shed all my social responsibilities and hole up.
Where I live there;s only 50 cases, so this move is pretty drastic on top of that. I heard of army deployment in the 3 major cities so I expect quarantine measures to be announced soon.
Not an original thought but the similarity between how the typical human mind in our culture processes coronavirus and climate change info is really striking.
Draw all the charts, graphs and projections you want. We seem collectively incapable of relying on science to make decisions until there are dead bodies lying in the street. And even then, we'll rationalize that they were old, feeble, nothing could be done ....
The weird thing is there is no corona virus lobby like there is with climate change. No vested interest that benefits from it. Just knee-jerk reactions "trumping" data.
Draw all the charts, graphs and projections you want. We seem collectively incapable of relying on science to make decisions until there are dead bodies lying in the street. And even then, we'll rationalize that they were old, feeble, nothing could be done ....
The weird thing is there is no corona virus lobby like there is with climate change. No vested interest that benefits from it. Just knee-jerk reactions "trumping" data.
All valid points, but it’s too easy to compare with likes of Korea when Taiwan is just 1/3 the land size and they didn’t have to deal with a secretive cult sharing the virus around before it got noticed late.
However, it is a model to look at for large metropolitans in the US and EU that has had enough warning time.
Unfortunately, most people will ignore an issue until it hits them in the face and then things get real.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Hospitals and insurance companies should lobby like mad. They have the most to lose and doctors/nurses too.
linux-works
Active Member
just one more and I'll give the washyourlyrics site a rest. been listening to diana krall lately, so:
True, although I would say everyone should be lobbying like mad since public health and the entire economy are being put at risk.
FWIW, nurses in SF have been protesting against inadequate training and equipment:
Nurses Hold Day Of Action To Protest CDC's Coronavirus Containment Measures
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Doing that mental exercise. Assuming R0 of 2 and virus spread unchecked since November. The whole world should be infected by now. And many people report being hit by a truck around the Nov Jan time by the flu. Assuming that there was an older more mild strain that was spread from China. Then herd immunity was built. Then the new evolved strain with higher mortality started spreading and is hitting those that doesn't have herd immunity.
The final research conclusion will be so interesting to see. On why certain countries got hit so hard while others doesn't. Countries like Germany and India which I assumed would be hit very hard isn't. So a lot of logical deductions went out the windows.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
How do you figure? Show me that math...
Let’s say end of November for the start.
Say 5 days per transmission cycle. Supposed to be about right.
100 days is 20 doublings. All a very crude model of course.
That is only ~1 million. Seems pretty close to the real number - especially given there were containment efforts and certainly quite a few cases have not been counted.
Lots of crazy assumptions in your post that have no basis in reality that I am aware of. Any spread results in mass die off of older people. It is pretty obvious. Why is it necessary to posit any of this info about an earlier less dangerous strain? Seems like a lot of complication for something that is perfectly explained by existing facts!
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Honestly, whenever I see bigger countries with a low case number I have doubts if I can trust the data. No tin foil hat needed, i am not saying these governments are necessarily lying. I am suspecting inadequate testing.
This thing started in November, but China only admitted at the end of the year. Travel bans only started the last few weeks and even that was gradual. So I suspect there could have already been thousands of cases everywhere, just simply blending in with season cold and flu as 80%+ of patients recover on their own.
The only thing I can naively hope is that there will be some learnings and global action plans for the next one. If China had issued a personal travel ban in November or December in the affected regions for 2-3 weeks, a lot of this could have been prevented. In absence of that, a total global travel ban in January could have seriously crippled the spread.
This situation clearly shows how little coordination is present among world governments for global issues like this.
PS: Even though my country is small, only 10M people, i am also doubting our numbers of only 13 cases. It's the flu season and half the country is sick with something anyway. Mostly light cases, but many on this commuter train I am sitting on right now are quietly coughing or blowing their noses. Wanna bet if even 1% of them are tested by there doctors for Corona? They say gentlemen don't bet on a sure thing...
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Relax, just doing back of napkin mental exercise. Not saying I believe it.
But using R0 of 2 and early Hubei estimate of incubation to spreading time of 1.4 to 3 days (eyeballed it and set it to 2). Put it in google sheet and let it expand.
If I did some more complex modelling I would've posted it.
2.00
4.00
8.00
16.00
32.00
64.00
128.00
256.00
512.00
1,024.00
2,048.00
4,096.00
8,192.00
16,384.00
32,768.00
65,536.00
131,072.00
262,144.00
524,288.00
1,048,576.00
2,097,152.00
4,194,304.00
8,388,608.00
16,777,216.00
33,554,432.00
67,108,864.00
134,217,728.00
268,435,456.00
536,870,912.00
1,073,741,824.00
2,147,483,648.00
4,294,967,296.00
8,589,934,592.00
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah ok, 7 days sounds like it is closer to the mark (thankfully!!!), based on actual epidemiologist opinions.
Trevor Bedford on Twitter
This tweet has the link to the paper with the full fitted model.
If they apply the same strict standards to everywhere, that shouldn't happen. But if they were to do it only to Lombardy, then other regions would end up in exactly the same situation.
(Well, perhaps not as bad, as at least the healthcare system has a "heads up" this time)
Amazing name for that car!
I was tempted to get a personalized license plate that read "SYND" (Sin), but I figured it'd make him a police magnet
Still need to get him wrapped and ceramiccoated. Will try to pick a shop today, tomorrow or this weekend. Lots of accessories to install, lots of reading of the manual to make sure I've got all of the functionality down, lots of friends promised test drives... so much remaining to do
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