Coronavirus

[Earlian]

More Data on the timing and were every country stands today:

More interactive graphics inside:

COVID-19 Facts - Algebris Investments

• Other countries are following in the path of Italy, with a lag.

• In terms of confirmed total cases per 10'000 inhabitants, Spain is today where Italy was 8/7 days ago. France, has a 9 days lag.

• Belgium, the Netherlands , and Germany are today where Italy was 10 days ago.

• Switzerland is today where Italy was 5 days ago, whereas the UK and US are where Italy was 13/14 and 16 days ago, respectively.

• We can expect the daily increase of total COVID-19 cases to peak across the EU top-4 countries around the end of March 2020

 

[eloder]

I've been trying to wrap my head around why this pandemic has captured society so much more than previous ones.

Is it possible that the media interconnected algorithms are just that good and far more ingrained than we thought? We all know how the "business news" acts as an amplifier for investors talking points, and we've even seen it leech its way into "regular media".

If all the algos were teetering on selling anyway, wouldn't a massive disruption in oil and a potential pandemic incentivize the spread of negative sentiment to manufacture a buying opportunity?

If I'm a computer, that's sure as hell what I'd do.

I noticed my Facebook feed today was filled with perfectly rational people sharing apocalyptic articles from mostly business audienced media outlets. Google anything about coronavirus and HALF the results are Fortune/Business Insider/ect...

Unless this view is perhaps curated for me?

You are going through extreme normalcy bias. Life has changed drastically for Italy, one of the largest economies in the world. In a span of three weeks they went from completely normal to the most extreme peace-time western martial law in generations, a state in which they will continue in for at least two months. In two weeks, life in the US will be unrecognizeable for many cities at a minimum--the data guarantees it at this point.

Returning to normalcy requires a vaccine several months into the future (whose history has been *extremely* shaky for coronaviruses, for example no MERS vaccine), significant anti-viral developments (the thing that took decades for AIDS/HIV), or a hope that this thing doesn't mutate like the cold or flu and that we achieve herd immunity after it infects 70%+ of the world (resulting in tens of millions dead or more). The best case scenario is a nightmare for practically all western countries at this point.

SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc. never achieved community spread in the western world. This thing is orders of magnitude more contagious and is a perfect storm of lethal, extremely long treatment time for 10-20% of cases, long incubation time, no unique symptoms, and asymptomatic shedding. And it's not only theory at this point, it's most assuredly everywhere in the US. We can hide it without tests, but we won't be able to hide the death count as it overloads hospitals in the same spirit of Italy within weeks.

 

[bkp_duke]

Understood and agreed on all basic points but don't you think that the very short interval suggests particularly when combined with the incubation.period data that this may be contagious at the late pre-symptomatic stages? And of course defining pre-symptomatic is a little bit tricky because often times people have very slight prodromal symptoms before they become febrile and develop significant cough . I defer to your greater expertise in this but it certainly is scary to have such a short transmission interval.

I have a friend that is an ID doc, and agree with their take on this: likely there is little viral shed till symptoms, but the symptoms are mild (low-grade fever - 99.5 or less, scratchy throat, etc.). I agree we don't have the full picture here. For example the short transmission interval could be overcome by the higher relative infectivity. ID researchers are going to have a field day with this virus for years to come.

 

[EVNow]

More Data on the timing and were every country stands today:

View attachment 520907

More interactive graphics inside:

COVID-19 Facts - Algebris Investments

• Other countries are following in the path of Italy, with a lag.

• In terms of confirmed total cases per 10'000 inhabitants, Spain is today where Italy was 8/7 days ago. France, has a 9 days lag.

• Belgium, the Netherlands , and Germany are today where Italy was 10 days ago.

• Switzerland is today where Italy was 5 days ago, whereas the UK and US are where Italy was 13/14 and 16 days ago, respectively.

• We can expect the daily increase of total COVID-19 cases to peak across the EU top-4 countries around the end of March 2020

Seems to me - every country will take its own path.

For eg., Germany has few (no?) deaths because the avg age of the confirmed is 40. Its similar in South Korea - esp. because the cult at the center of the spread consists mainly of younger people.

Looks like in US the fatalities may be mainly linked to nursing homes.

 

[dfwatt]

I have a friend that is an ID doc, and agree with their take on this: likely there is little viral shed till symptoms, but the symptoms are mild (low-grade fever - 99.5 or less, scratchy throat, etc.). I agree we don't have the full picture here. For example the short transmission interval could be overcome by the higher relative infectivity. ID researchers are going to have a field day with this virus for years to come.

Yes while it's having a field day with our ribosomes!

 

[bkp_duke]

"What you have read" is not quite the full story. If you can believe the NYT, here's the rest of the story.

Source: ‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response

As Washington State debated with the federal officials over what to do, the C.D.C. confronted the daunting task of testing more widely for the coronavirus.

The C.D.C. had designed its own test as it typically does during an outbreak. Several other countries also developed their own tests.

But when the C.D.C. shipped test kits to public labs across the country, some local health officials began reporting that the test was producing invalid results.

The C.D.C. promised that replacement kits would be distributed within days, but the problem stretched on for over two weeks. Only five state laboratories were able to test in that period. Washington and New York were not among them.

By Feb. 24, as new cases of the virus began popping up in the United States, the state labs were growing frantic.

The Association of Public Health Laboratories made what it called an “extraordinary and rare request” of Dr. Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the F.D.A., asking him to use his discretion to allow state and local public health laboratories to create their own tests for the virus.

“We are now many weeks into the response with still no diagnostic or surveillance test available outside of C.D.C. for the vast majority of our member laboratories,” Scott Becker, the chief executive of the association, wrote in a letter to Dr. Hahn.

Dr. Hahn responded two days later, saying in a letter that “false diagnostic test results can lead to significant adverse public health consequences” and that the laboratories were welcome to submit their own tests for emergency authorization.

But the approval process for laboratory-developed tests was proving onerous. Private and university clinical laboratories, which typically have the latitude to develop their own tests, were frustrated about the speed of the F.D.A. as they prepared applications for emergency approvals from the agency for their coronavirus tests.

Etc., etc. more bungling, more delays, more infections, more deaths.

I'm not defending the CDC, but do want to throw something out there for consideration.

Testing for a SPECIFIC variant of a virus is not that easy for rapid assays. I.e. it is very hard to make an ELISA (the type of test used for this) that is both highly specific and highly sensitive. For the confirmatory PCR testing, yes, that is possible (but that's basically sequencing part of the virus to confirm identity - and that takes a lot more time).

I would not be surprised in the least if the initial kits sent out by the CDC cross-reacted with other coronaviruses and generated a lot of false positives, and that was the problem. Coronaviruses are, after all, one of the many viruses that cause the common cold, and they are prevalent.

From my understanding, China has been doing PCRs to confirm all of their presumptive positive tests, which the CDC would be doing as well.

Would be nice if the CDC told us if this is the case, but they probably don't want the public to go bonkers that there is possibly a "bad test" out there and the repercussions of the loss of faith in getting tested.

 

[Cal1]

Quote from MarvinatOrz "Dunno if someone posted this yet, but Norway just called it. Strict quarantine measures in effect for 14 days, but likely extended. Strictest social control measures in place ever in national history, during times of peace.

All childcare, schools and universities closed. All sports games and other gatherings banned. All restaurants and food serving places are required to keep >1 meter distance between people, or close. All swimming pools, personal service businesses such as hairdressers & spas, all gyms closed. All employees of non-critical infrastructure strongly recommended to work from home, or stay away from work. Critical infrastructure workers (hospitals, power, utilities, food distribution) will have childcare provided.

Mandatory quarantine for 14 days after all travel outside the Nordics. Royal family already put in quarantine due to this rule, due to their recent international travel. Self-quarantine very strongly advised for anyone who shows any symptoms of respiratory infection of any type, or for anyone exposed to a confirmed Covid-19 patient. Everyone is asked to display solidarity and comply with measures, to protect the elderly and at-risk groups."

This is truly leadership at the national level. The idea that a gov would leave attendance or playing to a league like the NBA or NFL is just plan childish. This is a national emergency and unfortunately our leaders are not able to think at that level. Denial isn't going to work this this time. Trump spent this morning literally blaming European visitors for the US outbreak, restricting most incoming traffic from Europe. But strongly recommended US citizens not travel to Europe. This isn't leadership. You have leadership, willing to make the hard choices necessary to contain and reduce the effects. Our daughter's norwegian exchange student's family just canceled their visit next month. Not sure how she (the exchange student) is going fair when she goes home this summer.

 

[NicoV]

Looks like I’ll be teleworking for a few weeks as all “non-critical” European Commission staff are ordered to work from home.

And I heard Belgium might be going lockdown, so started with my panic buying!

View attachment 520905

If you have enough beer, you won’t mind running out of toilet paper.

 

[bkp_duke]

If you have enough beer, you won’t mind running out of toilet paper.

Bidet sales must be through the roof right now . . .

 

[Dr. J]

That NYT story is consistent with what I said about federal regulations stifling test kit availability. The rules required the FDA to approve lab developed tests. When the Trump admin realized this was a roadblock, they rescinded that rule. Did they realize it fast enough? No, of course not. But my point is that too much federal regulation was the problem in this instance.

"Too much federal regulation": to someone with a hammer everything looks like a nail. My point was, yes, the regulation stood in the way for a few days, but there was plenty of other bungling before and after, and even rescinding the regulation was bungled. It's not the regulations, it's the continual bungling.

 

[Dr. J]

I'm not defending the CDC, but do want to throw something out there for consideration.

Testing for a SPECIFIC variant of a virus is not that easy for rapid assays. I.e. it is very hard to make an ELISA (the type of test used for this) that is both highly specific and highly sensitive. For the confirmatory PCR testing, yes, that is possible (but that's basically sequencing part of the virus to confirm identity - and that takes a lot more time).

I would not be surprised in the least if the initial kits sent out by the CDC cross-reacted with other coronaviruses and generated a lot of false positives, and that was the problem. Coronaviruses are, after all, one of the many viruses that cause the common cold, and they are prevalent.

From my understanding, China has been doing PCRs to confirm all of their presumptive positive tests, which the CDC would be doing as well.

Would be nice if the CDC told us if this is the case, but they probably don't want the public to go bonkers that there is possibly a "bad test" out there and the repercussions of the loss of faith in getting tested.

While that is interesting speculation, it's also true WHO already had a CV test which the US could have adopted instead of spending 6-8 weeks rolling their own. Occam's Razor says: it's CDC bungling.

 

[dc_h]

Here's the correct data and link, as of this posting:

3605 deaths out of 99963 cases.

2020 coronavirus pandemic in Asia - Wikipedia

And many have not recovered yet. Death rate in Italy is closer to 7% and only 8% recovered so far.

 

[bkp_duke]

While that is interesting speculation, it's also true WHO already had a CV test which the US could have adopted instead of spending 6-8 weeks rolling their own. Occam's Razor says: it's CDC bungling.

Actually, Occam's Razor says the WHO is probably just running confirmatory PCRs on everything as well. I would bet my license that their rapid ELISA is not that accurate either.

Having worked in a lab and having a Ph.D. in molecular biology, ELISAs are a PITA to deal with. But they give clinicians what they want: a rapid answer (i.e. something actionable). Accuracy be damned.

 

[dc_h]

"Too much federal regulation": to someone with a hammer everything looks like a nail. My point was, yes, the regulation stood in the way for a few days, but there was plenty of other bungling before and after, and even rescinding the regulation was bungled. It's not the regulations, it's the continual bungling.

Federal regulation? I’m confused, China and S Korea have a standard WHO test kit. The fed govt contracted instead to buy from a former Trump owned company for the tests. What does this have to do with regulation? The rest of the world has 4 hour tests, we have a corrupt team still not focused on solving the problem and thinking about economic stimulus for people who may be locked in their homes.

 

[KSilver2000]

Bidet sales must be through the roof right now . . .

Funny you mention this.

So, I posted a few days ago that I had bought a portable (handheld) bidet. Since, I’ve been tracking the prices on Amazon to possibly buy more for my parents on both sides. Well, they now cost 20% more (on Amazon) from all non-Amazon sellers compared to just earlier this week.

Better get a bidet now before there’s a run on those, too.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

What is Governor Idiot Inslee doing? Why hasn't he declared quarantine of WA state yet? Seattle right now is Wuhan on Jan 1st. There are probably thousands of cases walking around already, every week the cases will double, what the dextrose is he waiting for?

 

[KSilver2000]

Sources: Mitchell now second Jazz player with virus

Not sure how accurate the report is, but sounds like Gobert exemplified the swipe culture of the young ones these days, and not putting others in the best interest.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

No, let’s not start that bidet nonsense again!

And try to keep politics out of this thread too. There’s a dedicated thread for Trump bashing.

 

[N5329K]

Federal regulation? I’m confused, China and S Korea have a standard WHO test kit. The fed govt contracted instead to buy from a former Trump owned company for the tests. What does this have to do with regulation? The rest of the world has 4 hour tests, we have a corrupt team still not focused on solving the problem and thinking about economic stimulus for people who may be locked in their homes.

Be thankful they didn't revive Trump University to develop a vaccine.
Robin

 

[linux-works]

LOL

Porn site allows Italians to watch all of its content for free amid coronavirus lockdown | Daily Mail Online