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Reported numbers should go up.

Given that Azar, the administration, has told us that 1 million test "kits" went out on Monday, there should be a very large increase in reporting for the US. In fact, this testing will include a number of labs that have their own "kits" who have been waiting for CDC to allow the testing. This will include new patients, but also previous patients whose tests were sent into the labs but were on a waiting list for tests to be allowed.

This should be a spike in data, not from a spike in cases, but from a spike in testing. If there is no reported spike in the data, something is wrong.

If the tests went out on Monday, and the tests take 2-4 days to get results, we should be getting data tomorrow or Monday. If the tests were sent overnight.
 
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Belgium closes schools, bars and restaurants. At least until begin april.

Edit: Also, All recreational activities (sports, culture etc) are cancelled. Non essential shops have to close during the weekend, but can stay open during the week.
 
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Reported numbers should go up.

Given that Azar, the administration, has told us that 1 million test "kits" went out on Monday, there should be a very large increase in reporting for the US. In fact, this testing will include a number of labs that have their own "kits" who have been waiting for CDC to allow the testing. This will include new patients, but also previous patients whose tests were sent into the labs but were on a waiting list for tests to be allowed.

This should be a spike in data, not from a spike in cases, but from a spike in testing. If there is no reported spike in the data, something is wrong.

If the tests went out on Monday, and the tests take 2-4 days to get results, we should be getting data tomorrow or Monday. If the tests were sent overnight.

has anybody got independent confirmation of how many test kits were actually sent ?
 
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... which means that in all families with children at least one of the parents has to stay home for 1,5 month (assuming the kids don’t go to their - vulnerable - grandparents). The economic impact must be huge.

Edit: Ohio and Maryland are also closing all schools, for a minimum of three and two weeks.
 
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... which means that in all families with children at least one of the parents has to stay home for 1,5 month (assuming the kids don’t go to their - vulnerable - grandparents). The economic impact must be huge.

From the article:

All classes at school will be suspended, but schools will be asked to provide care, especially for parents who are unable to look after their children during school hours. The Prime Minister has called for children not to be taken care of by grandparents.
 
Chamath Palihapitiya on stock selloff: I suspect we are nowhere near the lows

Takeaways:

1. 1.6T in junk debt in energy sector alone that needs a bid
2. Travel impact alone may be 5% of GDP
3. Stimulus needs to be TARP in size
4. Predicts impacts like great recession but long slow market recovery like .com bubble


When Chamath speaks, we should listen.