Coronavirus

[eevee-fan]

Chamath Palihapitiya on stock selloff: I suspect we are nowhere near the lows

Takeaways:

1. 1.6T in junk debt in energy sector alone that needs a bid
2. Travel impact alone may be 5% of GDP
3. Stimulus needs to be TARP in size
4. Predicts impacts like great recession but long slow market recovery like .com bubble

When Chamath speaks, we should listen.

If not for the pandemic, it would have been appropriate to drop money from helicopters.

 

[SageBrush]

I honestly do not know how printing money is going to change the economy dynamic. Are people going to start taking vacations ? Pile into fancy eateries ? Throw parties ? Will it convince industry to crank out goods that people staying at home without a paycheck will buy ?

Trump has been agitating the Fed to lower interest rates for the better part of a year now and took advantage of Covid-19 to get his wish but other than Trump being Trump I don't see the point.

 

[KSilver2000]

I honestly do not know how printing money is going to change the economy dynamic. Are people going to start taking vacations ? Pile into fancy eateries ? Throw parties ? Will it convince industry to crank out goods that people staying at home without a paycheck will buy ?

Trump has been agitating the Fed to lower interest rates for the better part of a year now and took advantage of Covid-19 to get his wish but other than Trump being Trump I don't see the point.

I cannot like this enough. It’s been my sentiment since he pushed for the rate cut last time. Expectations are that we get the additional 1/2 cut next week. But, the markets will drop again IMO like last time.

 

[lascavarian]

This is exactly what I think is going on. People vary in the constellation and progression of symptoms but some will be something like this:

1. Runny nose, 'sinus' complaints, 'allergy' complaints and sneezing; then
2. Scratchy throat, occasional cough; then
3. More prominent cough; then
4. Fever and malaise; then
5. Pleurisy or progressive dyspnea

When is a person first symptomatic ? A physician will say (1), but depending on how careful the history is obtained (2), (3) or (4) may be reported.

---
Somewhat tangentially, the NYT has an interesting report on the success of Taiwan in containing Covid-19. Two of the pillars of infection detection were fever (4) and self reporting of symptoms and high risk contacts. I wonder if the Taiwanese are just much better educated and self report from (1) or other factors are in play. Their success is certainly indirect evidence that the math model is wrong.

The most basic problem with the 'asymptomatic and infectious' notion is that it goes against a century of understanding viral respiratory disease epidemiology and pathophysiology. Symptoms are indicative of significant cytopathic effect, itself indicative of viral load. Spread is via cough and sneezing; and to a lesser degree rhinitis, all symptoms of infection.

I seem to remember our docs specifically saying upper respiratory symptoms like runny nose is not a symptom. Runny nose is more an upper respiratory allergy symptom. Don’t want simple allergy complaints getting mixed in. Covid-19 tends to be lower respiratory and fever. Not a Dr so do ur own research.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The Democrats are stupid, this is something that is actually impeachable and they blew their impeachment load on some idiotic Ukraine thing. If endangering the entire country's population for political gain isn't impeachable then nothing is, but that opportunity has already been wasted.

Yes, I’m pretty sure Republicans were also saying that impeachment on those terms was stupid.

 

[KSilver2000]

Santa Clara County is perfectly tracking that daily 33% growth. Now there are 66 cases with half requiring hospitalization, and half of those (~25% overall) in the ICU—not the 15-20% figure that’s being thrown around.

Anyone that still thinks this is “just a flu”, or a hoax, or a nothingburger deserves it.

 

[Paracelsus]

Hundreds of hungry monkeys terrorize Thai city after coronavirus drives tourists away

 

[linux-works]

I work for a US branch of a chinese company.

we just heard that our china central office is sending us a few thousand masks, due here in the next few days. for the local office to use.

aint that a kick - china is helping the US thru a health care crisis.

please, voters: remember this come november. we had to resort to china sending us masks. think about that for a while.

 

[Paracelsus]

First positive case in Anchorage reported

 

[TMThree]

please, voters: remember this come november. we had to resort to china sending us masks. think about that for a while.

Why is mask suppliers a political issue? Clinton did a lot to offshore our medical supplies to China. Odds are high Trump starts taking that back shortly.

 

[JRP3]

Why is mask suppliers a political issue? Clinton did a lot to offshore our medical supplies to China. Odds are high Trump starts taking that back shortly.

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak

 

[Causalien]

This is exactly what I think is going on. People vary in the constellation and progression of symptoms but some will be something like this:

1. Runny nose, 'sinus' complaints, 'allergy' complaints and sneezing; then
2. Scratchy throat, occasional cough; then
3. More prominent cough; then
4. Fever and malaise; then
5. Pleurisy or progressive dyspnea

When is a person first symptomatic ? A physician will say (1), but depending on how careful the history is obtained (2), (3) or (4) may be reported.

---
Somewhat tangentially, the NYT has an interesting report on the success of Taiwan in containing Covid-19. Two of the pillars of infection detection were fever (4) and self reporting of symptoms and high risk contacts. I wonder if the Taiwanese are just much better educated and self report from (1) or other factors are in play. Their success is certainly indirect evidence that the math model is wrong.

The most basic problem with the 'asymptomatic and infectious' notion is that it goes against a century of understanding viral respiratory disease epidemiology and pathophysiology. Symptoms are indicative of significant cytopathic effect, itself indicative of viral load. Spread is via cough and sneezing; and to a lesser degree rhinitis, all symptoms of infection.

Taiwanese as a culture care a lot about the wellbeing of others to the point of being nosey. Also as this happened during an election where China took steps to meddle the water. There was a sort of solidarity to stand together and face this threat. This is part of the difference that is hard to account for and makes government policies easier to enforce.

You certainly don't see as many ppl who value their freedom more than the quarantine order. But there are still some. Just less.

Another benefit is that everyone basically "masked up" the moment the pandemic was known and still at less than 1000 infected in China. Sure, their strategic reserve of masks eventually got depleted, but rationing and manufacturing eased the shortage.

USA just recently signed a free trade agreement with Taiwan, so I am suspecting that the us wants to start importing mask from Taiwan if China is feeling vengeful.

 

[bkp_duke]

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak

About 50 pages back, I posted a breakdown of the CDC global outbreak budget for the last 10 years. This was NOT affected by any budget changes in Obama or Trump.

The BI article is false on that mark.

EDIT - found it here:
The U.S. Government and Global Health Security

Image that sums up this part of the CDC budget for Global Health Security:

EDIT 2 - the 2015 surge was for response to Ebola.

 

[Causalien]

has anybody got independent confirmation of how many test kits were actually sent ?

Someone find out who is the contractor and short their stock?

 

[JRP3]

About 50 pages back, I posted a breakdown of the CDC global outbreak budget for the last 10 years. This was NOT affected by any budget changes in Obama or Trump.

The BI article is false on that mark.

So this didn't happen?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/

"Two weeks ago, the CDC began notifying staffers and officials abroad about its plan to downsize these activities, because officials assume there will be “no new resources,” said a senior government official speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss budget matters. Notice is being given now to CDC country directors “as the very first phase of a transition,” the official said. There is a need for “forward planning,” the official said, to accommodate longer advance notice for staffers and for leases and property agreements. The downsizing decision was first reported by the Wall Street Journal."
"Countries where the CDC is planning to scale back include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China,..."

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak
"In 2018, for instance, the CDC cut 80% of its efforts to prevent global disease outbreaks because it was running out of money. Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10.

Here are some other actions the Trump administration undertook to dismantle government-spending programs related to fighting the spread of global diseases, according to Foreign Policy:

• Shutting down the entire global-health-security unit of the National Security Council.
• Eliminating the US government's $30 million Complex Crises Fund.
• Reducing national health spending by $15 billion.
• Consistently attacking Mark Green, the director of the US Agency for International Development."

 

[bkp_duke]

So this didn't happen?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/

"Two weeks ago, the CDC began notifying staffers and officials abroad about its plan to downsize these activities, because officials assume there will be “no new resources,” said a senior government official speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss budget matters. Notice is being given now to CDC country directors “as the very first phase of a transition,” the official said. There is a need for “forward planning,” the official said, to accommodate longer advance notice for staffers and for leases and property agreements. The downsizing decision was first reported by the Wall Street Journal."
"Countries where the CDC is planning to scale back include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China,..."

Trump spent the past 2 years slashing the government agencies responsible for handling the coronavirus outbreak
"In 2018, for instance, the CDC cut 80% of its efforts to prevent global disease outbreaks because it was running out of money. Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10.

Here are some other actions the Trump administration undertook to dismantle government-spending programs related to fighting the spread of global diseases, according to Foreign Policy:

• Shutting down the entire global-health-security unit of the National Security Council.
• Eliminating the US government's $30 million Complex Crises Fund.
• Reducing national health spending by $15 billion.
• Consistently attacking Mark Green, the director of the US Agency for International Development."

I personally in my post 50 pages ago linked the ACTUAL CDC budgets. There was no 80% cut in the budget responsible for things like this. There were overall cuts.

WaPo is twisting the truth there. So much of what the CDC does has grown and expanded that it is not directly applicable to an outbreak like this.

 

[Dr. J]

About 50 pages back, I posted a breakdown of the CDC global outbreak budget for the last 10 years. This was NOT affected by any budget changes in Obama or Trump.

The BI article is false on that mark.

EDIT - found it here:
The U.S. Government and Global Health Security

Image that sums up this part of the CDC budget for Global Health Security:
View attachment 521111

EDIT 2 - the 2015 surge was for response to Ebola.

That graph is misleading. The "2015 surge for Ebola" was actually spent over 5 years and ran out in September 2019. Trump's budgets have consistently called for cuts in this area. Why would a xenophobic isolationist America-Firster want to fund international programs that enhance US security? He wouldn't, obviously.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/

The CDC programs, part of a global health security initiative, train front-line workers in outbreak detection and work to strengthen laboratory and emergency response systems in countries where disease risks are greatest. The goal is to stop future outbreaks at their source.

Most of the funding comes from a one-time, five-year emergency package that Congress approved to respond to the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. About $600 million was awarded to the CDC to help countries prevent infectious-disease threats from becoming epidemics. That money is slated to run out by September 2019. Despite statements from President Trump and senior administration officials affirming the importance of controlling outbreaks, officials and global infectious-disease experts are not anticipating that the administration will budget additional resources.

.....
Countries where the CDC is planning to scale back include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda and Congo. Last year, when Congo experienced a potentially deadly Ebola outbreak in a remote, forested area, CDC-trained disease detectives and rapid responders helped contain it quickly.

....
Without additional help, low-income countries are not going to be able to maintain laboratory networks to detect dangerous pathogens, Frieden said. “Either we help or hope we get lucky it isn’t an epidemic that travelers will catch or spread to our country,” Frieden said.

The U.S. downsizing could also lead other countries to cut back or drop out from “the most serious multinational effort in many years to stop epidemics at their sources overseas,” said Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

CDC spokeswoman Kathy Harben said the agency and federal partners remain committed to “prevent, detect and respond to infectious disease threats.”
...
The CDC has about $150 million remaining from the one-time Ebola emergency package for these global health security programs, the senior government official said. That money will be used this year and in fiscal 2019, but without substantial new resources, that leaves only the agency's core annual budget, which has remained flat at about $50 million to $60 million.

Officials at the CDC, the Department of Health and Human Services and the National Security Council pushed for more funding in the president's fiscal 2019 budget to be released this month. A senior government official said Thursday that the president's budget "will include details on global health security funding," but declined to elaborate.

Read more:

CDC Director Brenda Fitzgerald resigns because of conflicts over financial interests

 

[MikeQ]

Trump calls it a "foreign virus"--like coronavirus knows where it's from. It just reinforces who he is and the xenophobia of the base:
Why Trump Intentionally Misnames the Coronavirus

I noticed that dog whistle also.

The only silver lining I have read from the White House lately is that Pence intends to keep shaking hands.

He likely said that because China is running stories on their state media saying that the US military unleashed Coronavirus in Wuhan.

China, pushing conspiracy theory, accuses US Army of bringing coronavirus to Wuhan

 

[bkp_duke]

Lets back this up a second here, and let me ask a question:
What would you have the CDC do with all the extra funds? Specifically, what would they do to impact COVID-19?


In the HISTORY of the modern world, the ONLY thing that has EVER shown to slow the progression of an AIRBORNE virus are A) vaccines, and B) social distancing. We don't have A (and won't for 9-18 months).

An increase in the CDC budget would allow for more testing, but what does that give us with ACTIONABLE data? It gives us pretty dataset, but nothing that we don't already really know from the worldwide data. There is nothing that an increased CDC budget would do that would have kept this off our shores. Period.


And from 2 days ago, this is a really good interview with someone who works in this field:

 

[Dr. J]

He likely said that because China is running stories on their state media saying that the US military unleashed Coronavirus in Wuhan.

China, pushing conspiracy theory, accuses US Army of bringing coronavirus to Wuhan

No, that's not why he said that. RTFA.