Well, I think any good news will be instantly exaggerated by the media and politicians, and the market will rebound. I'm trying to be ready. Every lab in the world is working on this problem, and I think someone will find something to turn the mood around, even if it isn't as good a solution as we really need.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Well, I think any good news will be instantly exaggerated by the media and politicians, and the market will rebound. I'm trying to be ready. Every lab in the world is working on this problem, and I think someone will find something to turn the mood around, even if it isn't as good a solution as we really need.
Norbert
TSLA will win
That was my thought, that the other numbers are even less meaningful. The number for South Korea, with better testing, and a less dynamic situation by now, as far as I understand, is 3% of closed cases.
I guess it means that in the US we have been recognizing (at the time when the closed cases where tested) mostly only very serious cases.
I can't understand the continued absence of extensive testing.
Actually it has been shown several times that during economic downturns, people smoke and drink *more* not less. They find the money for these things, and cut back elsewhere, like healthcare and food.
Wealthy enough to buy a Tesla.I think the economy will bounce back quite quickly. Like I said earlier I think there is a lot of recency bias in people assuming a long slow recovery like the Great Recession. I agree that my financial security is probably biasing my opinions, I don't know how people who have lost their jobs feel.
Thank you for this honest response.
I don't think many people understand my perspective. It's somewhat unique, but closest to what @KarenRei has been advocating. I fear we're making bad decisions with bad data.
The data we have definitely suggests we should practice social distancing. On what scale? What are the long term social effects? Should pre-schoolers stay home (they seem unaffected by this virus)? Working from home with a 2 year old is a productivity killer. How many can effectively work at home (I think we're about to find out that more than we thought overall).
I see a lot of positives and negatives in our reaction. Everyone is modeling disease spread and overload of hospitals. These are great things to be focused on! But not the only thing.
lack of extensive testing in the USA was incompetence (rejection of using international test solutions in favour of floored US one) and political (US case number can’t go higher if you don’t test for it - remember Trump himself said he didn’t want the infected cruise ship passengers allowed off the ship because it would make the official US numbers worse. He was doing everything he could to hide the reality, and thereby worsening the effort to contain it)
you're screwed.
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/coronavirus the race is on, to get a vaccine that can be used for high risk people. Until then, we should just abolish the idea that any restrictions are short term (ie 2 week lockdowns are not sufficient). We cannot hammer and dance out of this, because its too contagious and pervasive. The control measures will need to be sustained.
I do think there are protocols that can reduce ICU demand, and there are techniques that reduce fatality rate. CoVid19 is a barely fatal infection, right at the cusp of not being fatal (compared to a Henipavirus like Nipah). Improve pre-infection health, and lower dosage of initial infections (to allow the body more time to respond) should help. Coronavirus has certain qualities that make it an ideal virus for catching from healthcare locations, manage that well (drive through testing, sufficient rest and protection for health professionals, use novel student medical staff (etc) and the mortality would drop.
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MXLRplus
Active Member
The economy will not bounce back for years if the sub-tier suppliers default, and large companies outsource their procurement offshore. This happened in 2001 once already.
We will have cut the economy off at the knees. Tesla for one, will foreign source nearly their entire car since they are very frugal with their US vendors who will collapse earlier than most subtiers. But the same will apply to many companies.
Then the government will decide the only way to pay the bills is to tax the remaining companies enough to compensate for the lost tax base.
Without enough high paying US jobs, the US consumer market will recede, and probably take down many other countries with it.
The US Congress has just decided to fight for more personal perks rather than enact emergency relief. They would rather destroy the country than allow it to continue. That is a pretty accurate paraphrase. It was said by the minority leader in the Senate, that social engineering must be considered more important than relief, and if they can't get it, they will burn the house down.
We will have cut the economy off at the knees. Tesla for one, will foreign source nearly their entire car since they are very frugal with their US vendors who will collapse earlier than most subtiers. But the same will apply to many companies.
Then the government will decide the only way to pay the bills is to tax the remaining companies enough to compensate for the lost tax base.
Without enough high paying US jobs, the US consumer market will recede, and probably take down many other countries with it.
The US Congress has just decided to fight for more personal perks rather than enact emergency relief. They would rather destroy the country than allow it to continue. That is a pretty accurate paraphrase. It was said by the minority leader in the Senate, that social engineering must be considered more important than relief, and if they can't get it, they will burn the house down.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Well that number was worldwide for 122,247 closed cases, but yes the number of asymptomatic and mild cases must be much larger. However that means for the actual percentage to be around 1%, there would have to have been more than 1,000,000 actual infections already a few weeks ago.
EDIT: With "that number" I am referring to the one in my own post, 13%.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
This assumption is not correct, and is being propagated as fact, when it is not true. Yes, old school teaching made an assumption that DNA was more robust than RNA, because it is one strand versus two. If that were the only consideration, yes it would be true. But when you take into account the types of replication mechanisms involved and if they were subject to proofreading by the polymerases during the process, the assumption breaks down.
Replication FIDELITY is not just determined by single vs. double strandedness (and RNA in some instances is doublestranded, FYI), but is also determined by whether or not a viral replication has a robust proofreading mechanism built into it and the efficiency of that proofreading mechanism in the polymerase reading the DNA. SARS-CoV-2 has a LOWER MUTATION rate than influenza (which trends to about one major antigenic shift per year) because it actually has a proofreading mechanism built into it's polymerase. Influenza, by contrast, does not.
Relevant articles:
Coronaviruses: an RNA proofreading machine regulates replication fidelity and diversity. - PubMed - NCBI
Mutations can reveal how the coronavirus moves—but they’re easy to overinterpret | Science | AAAS (this is an editorial, not original data, but the references are sound).
End result:
SARS-CoV-2 is seeing slow antigenic drift (i.e. random mutations) at a rate about 1/4 that of Influenza (which doesn't have proofreading built into it's replication mechanism). It's not quickly mutating.
Why is this important? Because it means if we can get a vaccine out there, we have an excellent chance of wiping this virus out of the population.
Mad@gascar
Teslanaire Extraordinaire
Constantly following the skyrocketing infection and death numbers kind of numbs you to the terrible reality of this disease - until it hits somebody you know. My in-laws' neighbor just died of covid-19. I had talked to her a couple of times in the pool. Lovely lady. So sad. She's just one of 419 in the US (at the time I'm writing this), each of them a breathing, feeling, precious human being, leaving behind bereaved children, spouses, friends & relatives. It hit me like a punch in the gut.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Are you also counting lives saved and injuries avoided because of the reduced vehicle use? How about reduced work related injuries and deaths? Improved air quality?
Air quality and its effects on health we track closely. The others, we do not.
If you meant this as a "gotcha" I don't appreciate the reply. We're just trying to get better data.
Back to air quality - the research replicates well. Bad air is really bad for people. Especially the poor (for logical reasons).
linux-works
Active Member
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I think the reason you got the "gotcha" reply is that it sounds like you're looking for a particular result. Why do you "expect" an increase?
Could people's emotional response to pandemic news also be affecting their health? How are you going to control for that?
I'm not looking for a particular result. I sent my elderly relatives into self isolation weeks ago. I, personally, am going to profit from this outbreak. I don't like that.
If I can convince my parents to listen to me (they won't) they'll be fine. If they don't, they'll die years earlier than they should (US healthcare and all).
It's very frustrating that people posting in an investment forum are unaware that people can have different, nuanced opinions.
This has been going around and it is an outstanding read.
WHY do we need to shut down the entire country? This is why.
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
WHY do we need to shut down the entire country? This is why.
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
Apparently people love to read that horror movie stuff. 10 million people will die in the US alone! (based on an online calculator).
Probably will get 50 million views this time.
lets be clear, shutdowns will need to be sustained until vaccines or effective treatments for the most vulnerable become reality.
hammer and dance over estimates how effective their hammer is, unfortunately. expect stronger strategies for longer periods of time than 'hammer and dance' but with more precise targeting and feedback.
Here is a remdersivir stroy I heard from Yahoo Gilead Conversations
I hope it is true and FDA will soon approve its use before it is too late
Delia
20 hours ago
This is from my friend in our Line group
"Uncle has recovered from Corona virus and moving out of ICU. Here's my first hand experience.
My uncle, 65 yrs old, was diagnosed with Corona virus on 3/12 in San Jose CA (Santa Clara county) near the Berryessa exit. His daily routine only involved traveling to Fremont by bus/light rail for work, and he rarely travels outside his routine. It is suspected that he contracted the virus from being in close quarter to others on the public transportation.
He had flu-like symptoms before being admitted to the hospital, and immediately transferred to the ICU. We received a phone call from CDC that afternoon stating that his respiratory system has failed and probably not going to survive. CDC gave up early and has written him off for dead. We got a call later that evening from the doctors who were still trying to save him and have requested the experimental Gilead Remdesivir on a compassionate basis. It was approved and administered Intravenously the next day.
The shocking thing was the CDC's refusal to test my aunt who was in close contact with him. The lack of testing meant that there were hidden carriers on the bus that passed it to others in the area. The failure to recognize and track the spread early is why we are in such dramatic lockdowns. This could've been contained back in Feb but it was ignored to make the infection numbers look better than reality. Sad!
Remdesivir was effective in treating his condition and his condition improved over the week. While he's on ventilator the oxygen support level have gone from 80%, 50%, and down to 40%. He recovered very well and have been taken off the ventilator and breathing on his own. Will be moving out of the ICU today.
I hope it is true and FDA will soon approve its use before it is too late
Delia
20 hours ago
This is from my friend in our Line group
"Uncle has recovered from Corona virus and moving out of ICU. Here's my first hand experience.
My uncle, 65 yrs old, was diagnosed with Corona virus on 3/12 in San Jose CA (Santa Clara county) near the Berryessa exit. His daily routine only involved traveling to Fremont by bus/light rail for work, and he rarely travels outside his routine. It is suspected that he contracted the virus from being in close quarter to others on the public transportation.
He had flu-like symptoms before being admitted to the hospital, and immediately transferred to the ICU. We received a phone call from CDC that afternoon stating that his respiratory system has failed and probably not going to survive. CDC gave up early and has written him off for dead. We got a call later that evening from the doctors who were still trying to save him and have requested the experimental Gilead Remdesivir on a compassionate basis. It was approved and administered Intravenously the next day.
The shocking thing was the CDC's refusal to test my aunt who was in close contact with him. The lack of testing meant that there were hidden carriers on the bus that passed it to others in the area. The failure to recognize and track the spread early is why we are in such dramatic lockdowns. This could've been contained back in Feb but it was ignored to make the infection numbers look better than reality. Sad!
Remdesivir was effective in treating his condition and his condition improved over the week. While he's on ventilator the oxygen support level have gone from 80%, 50%, and down to 40%. He recovered very well and have been taken off the ventilator and breathing on his own. Will be moving out of the ICU today.
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