Coronavirus

[Compton]

I'm still finding it ironic that the people saying that society is overreacting keep citing car crashes and air pollution as bigger concerns when the response will definitely lower the number of deaths due to due to car crashes and air pollution.
Anyway, the concern isn't the current number of deaths! Left unchecked how many deaths do you think COVID-19 will cause?
Also, the flu gets a lot of media coverage.

A million coronavirus related deaths would be a nothing burger in the grand scheme of things. 100 fold increase in deaths from the present situation (~14000) would result in 1.4 million deaths. You haven't lost any sleep over the 1.2 million malaria related deaths over the last three years. I wouldn't lose sleep over 1.4 million coronavirus related deaths. 5-20 million would start to get more significant.

 

[Daniel in SD]

A million coronavirus related deaths would be a nothing burger in the grand scheme of things. 100 fold increase in deaths from the present situation (~14000) would result in 1.4 million deaths. You haven't lost any sleep over the 1.2 million malaria related deaths over the last three years. I wouldn't lose sleep over 1.4 million coronavirus related deaths.

How are you calculating 1.4 million?
That seems very low.
EDIT: We're talking global, right?

 

[DanCar]

I doubt it will do anything over the next 14 days. People don't just drop dead, it takes a couple weeks.

471 deaths now and has been rising at 30% per day. So if the trend continues in one week we will see 471 * 1.3 ^ 8 = 3,842 . We will be passing China in eight days in number of deaths.

 

[Norbert]

A million coronavirus related deaths would be a nothing burger in the grand scheme of things. 100 fold increase in deaths from the present situation (~14000) would result in 1.4 million deaths. You haven't lost any sleep over the 1.2 million malaria related deaths over the last three years. I wouldn't lose sleep over 1.4 million coronavirus related deaths. 5-20 million would start to get more significant.

Note to Corona: Once we are at 2 million deaths, please stop so that Compton doesn't lose any sleep.

 

[eevee-fan]

419 as of close today. If we estimate 30% daily increase (looks about right)...

7 days = 2,629
14 days = 16,498
21 days = 103,520
28 days = 649,573
33 days = 2.4M

Was 2.4M our 'quota' for Corona deaths?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

419 as of close today. If we estimate 30% daily increase (looks about right)...

7 days = 2,629
14 days = 16,498
21 days = 103,520
28 days = 649,573
33 days = 2.4M

Was 2.4M our 'quota' for Corona deaths?

That's not how it works. We have a finite supply of 87 year old diabetics. My apologies for being so cavalier, but this is getting absurd.

 

[Compton]

How are you calculating 1.4 million?
That seems very low.

Italy seems to be worst hit (around 5500 deaths) and there are approximately 28 million people in Northern Italy. World has some 7 billion people. If the situation over the entire world would be similar, we would get (7 billion:28 million)*5500 = 1.4 million deaths. Assuming that the infection is in the middle of it’s course now in Italy, we would get 1.4*2 = 2.8 million deaths world wide. Add another 50% to be on the safe side and we get 1.5*2.8 = 4.2 million deaths.

So half of the annual deaths caused by smoking and the same as outdoor air pollution. My country just increased the price of cigarettes by a few cents. But they are flushing the economy down the toilet because of this.

 

[DanCar]

...
28 days = 649,573
33 days = 2.4M
Was 2.4M our 'quota' for Corona deaths?

35K positive test cases now according to https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
If make the assumption that actually 5 times that are infected then:
(35,000*5) * 1.3 ^ 33 = 1 billion. So the virus should start to burn itself out around 650K deaths or 28 days if current trend continues and assumptions are correct.

(35,000*5) * 1.3 ^ 28 = 271 million. U.S. population = 327 million, close enough.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That's not how it works. We have a finite supply of 87 year old diabetics. My apologies for being so cavalier, but this is getting absurd.

What percentage of the population of the US do you think already has the Coronavirus or is immune?

 

[eevee-fan]

What percentage of the population of the US do you think already has the Coronavirus or is immune?

 

[Norbert]

35K positive test cases now according to https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
If make the assumption that actually 5 times that are infected then:
(35,000*5) * 1.3 ^ 33 = 1 billion. So the virus should be burning itself out around 1 million.

No, because the current number of deaths 419 (or actually 452 meanwhile) is related to the number of known cases about 2 weeks ago. So when the number of known cases will top out, the number of deaths might still go up for a few more weeks.

 

[Thekiwi]

Italy seems to be worst hit (around 5500 deaths) and there are approximately 28 million people in Northern Italy. World has some 7 billion people. If the situation over the entire world would be similar, we would get (7 billion:28 million)*5500 = 1.4 million deaths. Assuming that the infection is in the middle of it’s course now in Italy, we would get 1.4*2 = 2.8 million deaths world wide. Add another 50% to be on the safe side and we get 1.5*2.8 = 4.2 million deaths.

So half of the annual deaths caused by smoking and the same as outdoor air pollution. My country just increased the price of cigarettes by a few cents. But they are flushing the economy down the toilet because of this.

you realise though that Italy deaths includes the benefit they are getting from their belated lockdown procedures. Even though they are late, they are preventing a large amount of further deaths.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Italy seems to be worst hit (around 5500 deaths) and there are approximately 28 million people in Northern Italy. World has some 7 billion people. If the situation over the entire world would be similar, we would get (7 billion:28 million)*5500 = 1.4 million deaths. Assuming that the infection is in the middle of it’s course now in Italy, we would get 1.4*2 = 2.8 million deaths world wide. Add another 50% to be on the safe side and we get 1.5*2.8 = 4.2 million deaths.

So half of the annual deaths caused by smoking and the same as outdoor air pollution. My country just increased the price of cigarettes by a few cents. But they are flushing the economy down the toilet because of this.

I have no idea how you're determining that it's near "the middle" in northern Italy. The number of deaths per day keeps going up. I suggest you look at the data from South Korea to see when a country is near the middle.
Also, Italy has taken dramatic measures to slow the spread. Though probably not extreme enough. You seemed to be arguing against those measures.

 

[Compton]

I have no idea how you're determining that it's near "the middle" in northern Italy. The number of deaths per day keeps going up. I suggest you look at the data from South Korea to see when a country is near the middle.
Also, Italy has taken dramatic measures to slow the spread. Though probably not extreme enough. You seemed to be arguing against those measures.

Number of deaths on sunday were 18% lower than on saturday. First time we have seen a reduction in the number of deaths. So I admit that I took a wild guess.

 

[Daniel in SD]

No, because the current number of deaths 419 (or actually 452 meanwhile) is related to the number of known cases about 2 weeks ago. So when the number of known cases will top out, the number of deaths might still go up for a few more weeks.

Exactly. Deaths trail infections. Korea just report 7 daily deaths, the same number they had when their new cases peaked 3 weeks ago.

 

[Mad@gascar]

What was her NJ region, or municipality? What hospital?

She lived in Franklin Township/Somerset County. Don't know which hospital, may have been outside Somerset County.

 

[Compton]

you realise though that Italy deaths includes the benefit they are getting from their belated lockdown procedures. Even though they are late, they are preventing a large amount of further deaths.

Yep, of course. But the hysteria and the measures are still out of proportion to the number of deaths in relation to other health problems that most people give zero F about every year. And to be clear, I'm not advocating doing nothing at all. But instead of e.g. closing down factories and schools, the isolation measures could be targeted preferentially to the risk groups until the situation would calm down.

 

[FoverM]

Here's to hoping that Italy is turning the corner. Their trend-line on my Excel graph is now below 10% new cases per day (cases_today - cases_yesterday) / cases_yesterday. I thought they had turned the corner last week in the 3500 cases/day range. Now they're in the 5000 cases/day range.

I don't think you can make any assumptions on the US data out on worldometers.info because testing has increased significantly. That reasoning applies to both new cases and deaths because a test can remap a death to CV (e.g. someone dies of "pneumonia" then their test comes back positive for CV). Using the total cases numbers as is, the trend of the daily growth rate here is positive ... not good! However, we're basically only looking at NY, and NYC in particular, because they totally dominate the US case numbers now (an order of magnitude higher number than any other state). US death rate is 1.3% of total cases (452 / 34,717).

WA has a nice website with their data. I think other states should standardize on their website. Anyway, their daily growth % has been in the 10-20% range for a week.

It would be really nice to have a breakdown of who is being tested, both here in the US and overseas. For example, NY has a whopping total case number of 16,900 while the surrounding states (CT+MA+NJ, similar total population to NY) have only 2783 (most of that in NJ).

Data:
United States Coronavirus: 34,717 Cases and 452 Deaths - Worldometer
Coronavirus tracker in Washington State - Washington State Hospital Association

 

[dhanson865]

AppleNews had this article with a map from Kaiser Health News showing the U.S. and where there were sections of the country without any ICU beds or even hospitals in the counties. Pretty frightening to think about given the pandemic now. What really struck me looking at the map was where those ICU bed-less areas were located. Mostly in middle America—from Texas in spots, north to the Canadian border, and extending some westward and eastward. These are the areas if I’m not mistaken that haven’t had many confirmed cases yet and have been Red states. Some wide open areas of the country with a lot of hard working farmers. I find this scary to think about on several levels. So many small farms are struggling to stay afloat as it is.

Not sure if the link from AppleNews works or not but here it is (“Millions Of Older Americans Live In Counties With No ICU Beds As Pandemic Intensifies”) by Fred Schulte, Elizabeth Lucas, Jordan Rau, Liz Szabo and Jay Hancock • March 20, 2020: Millions of older Americans live in counties with no ICU beds — Kaiser Health News
The same article appeared in USAToday but without the map on my mobile phone. Tried looking for the Map on Kaiser Health News but didn’t see it so failing on both fronts hope the above map and article are visible for everyone.

A quote from the article: “Overall, 18 million people live in counties that have hospitals but no ICU, about a quarter of them 60 or older, the analysis shows. Nearly 11 million more Americans reside in counties with no hospital, some 2.7 million of them seniors.”

While those numbers are high, from what we are learning is that a high percentage (still under 50%) become seriously ill and are under 50 years of age.

Holy crap, Knoxville only has 250 or so ICU beds, seems small to me, then I look at Memphis and they have about 275 with more population.

Either city has a metro area of 1 million or so, Memphis being more dense, Knox being more spread out. Either way under 300 beds for a metro area that large seems small vs the outbreak to come.

 

[Cosmacelf]

FYI hospital ship Mercy is being deployed to San Francisco while its sister ship Comfort is heading to NYC. Mercy should arrive within the week, while Comfort will take 3-4 weeks to arrive. Meanwhile emergency field stations are being set up in NYC, San Francisco, and in Washington. IIRC from today’s WH press briefing it’s something like 1,000 beds to NYC and to Washington and CA gets 2,000 beds.