Coronavirus

[eevee-fan]

They recently upgraded to FoxPro

I guess they mean 10x more than what they got before covid-19.

I think they're using MS Excel 2010.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

South Korea's daily new deaths over the last 3 days (including today's incomplete number) are as high as ever.

Yep. A few of those are new cases converting to deaths, but most are from people who have been lingering for over month in the ICU and finally give up. There are still 59 cases in critical condition. Even though they've only been adding ~75 cases per day for a while. So many of those 59 cases are long-term critical, since we know the conversion % to critical, and the approximate illness duration.

All these other countries are varying degrees of chaos, with us about the worst. You can fill in that chaos with whatever conclusions you like, but the two properly tested countries are telling a clear story.

Yes. I don't really get you, since you talk both sides of this. South Korea is at 1.4% death rate. 1.5% if you use the case count from 5-6 days ago in the denominator.

I see no evidence that Germany will be substantially different than that. I could believe as low as 1% (assuming no miracle therapy). Check back in a week. It'll be close to 1%. And rising.

I mean, we have all the historical data. You can see that I am right that the CFR is going up, not down, in Germany.

 

[BerkshireEV]

It'll definitely be different in California and Washington. There's no reason to think we'll ever see that high a positive rate here. NY City is a giant sh**show since the virus was allowed to breed undetected (there were probably quite a few deaths that were due to COVID-19 that were not detected in the early going) for weeks, with multiple starts from international travelers. Haven't seen any phylogenetic analysis of the early cases there, but probably they were introduced prior to the travel ban, in January. With additional introductions from Europe later.

It also suffers from high density and public transport. There's just a lot of a very contagious virus wandering around.

It's going to be a disaster of epic proportions in NY. I hope I am wrong. I expect a minimum of 10k deaths in NY, and I would not be surprised at 20-30k.

Not so sure about Cali. LA and SF have densities not far off NYC and if it gets into the homeless population in either or both that is a whole other issue. Garcetti indicated tonight that LA is likely to shelter in place for months, I believe.

Yup. A big part of that is due to increased testing. It's just showing cases we have had but didn't know we had. We're around 200k cases in the nation right now, most likely (a lot will never be identified of course - though they will spread to others).

Agree 100%. We'll be at 200k sometime next week at present rate.

Over 1000 deaths in the US now, as expected.

 

[byeLT4]

I was thinking maybe Elon hadn't updated them to MCU2

 

[Daniel in SD]

Goin' all Magic 8 Ball on us, huh?

Thank you. Now I have a name for this category of post.

 

[eevee-fan]

The White House did not followed the Playbook for this pandemic response?!?

Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yes. I don't really get you, since you talk both sides of this. South Korea is at 1.4% death rate. 1.5% if you use the case count from 5-6 days ago in the denominator.

I see no evidence that Germany will be substantially different than that. I could believe as low as 1% (assuming no miracle therapy). Check back in a week. It'll be close to 1%. And rising.

I mean, we have all the historical data. You can see that I am right that the CFR is going up, not down, in Germany.

Everyone agrees and understands that deaths lag. What we for some reason refuse to acknowledge is the massive percentage of infections that are symptom free. There are not 9,170 total cumulative infections in South Korea, that's almost physically impossible with a virus that spreads like this one.

Months and years after major pandemics a lot more people get tested and we start to get a large enough arbitrary test sample size and the real mortality rate appears.

Will the real infection rate end up 5x the identified cases or 30x or more? Who knows, but it's pretty glaringly clear that nowhere near 1% or 2% of infected humans die.

 

[Daniel in SD]

This will likely dwindle down toward .2% when all is said and done just like SARS.

Again, where are you getting this number. SARS had a CFR of 9.6% according to wikipedia. Does it need an edit?

 

[Dr. J]

The White House did not followed the Playbook for this pandemic response?!?

Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook

Monday morning quarterbacking on the prior Saturday morning.

 

[Daniel in SD]

here are not 9,170 total cumulative infections in South Korea, that's almost physically impossible with a virus that spreads like this one.

Almost is not impossible. How the hell did they get it under control without catching the vast majority of the cases? That is also impossible with a virus that spreads like this one. I guess it's a paradox! Though the most logical explanation is that they have been able to track the contacts of almost every infection.

 

[Doggydogworld]

History shows that when Elon is wrong, he goes wrong BIG.

This is one of those times.

He's probably right about inflection. Case count grew by an almost rock-steady 34% per day the past three weeks. There's barely a ripple in the log-normal chart from 3/04-3/24:

But growth was "only" 25% yesterday and 20% today. That's partly because the hottest spot (NYC) reduced their testing and partly because we've been partially locking down hotter areas over the past couple of weeks. But there's something bigger at work. The virus spreads fast, but not 34%/day fast. Our case count grew 34%/day for three weeks because our testing grew 34%/day (sub-1k to 420k+ in 21 days). We started out way behind the curve, but we've been gradually catching up.

Expanding lockdowns will help testing catch up even faster. If the "true" case count is 200k today, current lockdowns may keep new cases at 10k/day (two week doubling rate). We found ~11k yesterday and 11k today. I am not saying 11k is the peak, with ~130k undetected cases we can find more than 10k/day for weeks. But I do believe we're past the point where a 34% increase in testing will produce a 34% increase in cases.

This inflection is good and will help advance the "lockdowns work" meme. But we still need to figure out how to contain this beast without lockdowns. And that's hopeless without tons of asymptomatic testing based on contact tracing. We're a long way from that.

 

[Daniel in SD]

South Korea's daily new deaths over the last 3 days (including today's incomplete number) are as high as ever.

Draw your own conclusions.

My conclusion is that people are on ventilators for weeks after falling ill. It's really starting to look like this is worse than the flu.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

massive percentage of infections that are symptom free.

Are they also non-contagious? Again, you would have to make that logical leap.

Are you going to trust the German data then?

Germany's numbers show a .5% mortality rate. This will likely dwindle down toward .2%

So, why did you quote the 0.5% CFR, if you were talking about the IFR? And when you say 0.2%, are you talking about the CFR or the IFR? (Sounds like you're claiming that's the IFR, and you are supposing that 80% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic and non-contagious.) Anyway - CFR/IFR - You can't mix them up.

 

[Yuri_G]

After tomorrow the US will have the most confirmed cases of Covid on the planet. I think the public perception in this country will start to shift to equal the severity of this outbreak and how much of an impact it will leave on our society.

 

[Norbert]

Yep. A few of those are new cases converting to deaths, but most are from people who have been lingering for over month in the ICU and finally give up. There are still 59 cases in critical condition. Even though they've only been adding ~75 cases per day for a while. So many of those 59 cases are long-term critical, since we know the conversion % to critical, and the approximate illness duration.

I'm not surprised. You could take it as sign they are really doing their best.

[Alan's response to TalkingMule]

Yes. I don't really get you, since you talk both sides of this. South Korea is at 1.4% death rate. 1.5% if you use the case count from 5-6 days ago in the denominator.

I see no evidence that Germany will be substantially different than that. I could believe as low as 1% (assuming no miracle therapy). Check back in a week. It'll be close to 1%. And rising.

I mean, we have all the historical data. You can see that I am right that the CFR is going up, not down, in Germany.

CFR will go above 1%. In any case, yes, up.

 

[EVNow]

With 13k confirmed today, US is on track to surpass China confirmed numbers tomorrow ? May be Italy as well.

Spain has more new confirmed cases than Italy today - and nearly as many fatalities. Spain will be worse than Italy, looks like. NY right behind ?

 

[BerkshireEV]

My conclusion is that people are on ventilators for weeks after falling ill. It's really starting to look like this is worse than the flu.

This is not a flu and that is what people don't grasp. H1N1 was a form of influenza. This is more like pneumonia on steroids.

 

[Norbert]

My conclusion is that people are on ventilators for weeks after falling ill. It's really starting to look like this is worse than the flu.

Yeah, something is off.

 

[eevee-fan]

With 13k confirmed today, US is on track to surpass China confirmed numbers tomorrow ? May be Italy as well.

... so tired of winning...

 

[BerkshireEV]

With 13k confirmed today, US is on track to surpass China confirmed numbers tomorrow ? May be Italy as well.

Spain has more new confirmed cases than Italy today - and nearly as many fatalities. Spain will be worse than Italy, looks like. NY right behind ?

Italy tomorrow, yep, and 80k total bu EOD