Coronavirus

[steve3]

Gabriel Leung (@gmleunghku) is an epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong.

He says “we must all prepare for several cycles of a “suppress and lift” policy — cycles during which restrictions are applied and relaxed, applied again and relaxed again, in ways that can keep the pandemic under control but at an acceptable economic and social cost.”

In this letter to the editor, he presents a “formal framework for how governments could monitor the state of this pandemic much more accurately than many seem to be doing now, and how then, acting on the evidence, they could tune their interventions quickly enough to stay ahead of the outbreak trajectory.”

Opinion | Lockdown Can’t Last Forever. Here’s How to Lift It.

 

[Daniel in SD]

There is good news. New York thinks that infections and deaths are starting to level off.
I think the market is way underestimating the length of time required to start relaxing current restrictions.
@Papafox, maybe the market found out that HCQ has Dr. Zelenko's 100% success rate.

 

[eevee-fan]

There is good news. New York thinks that infections and deaths are starting to level off.
I think the market is way underestimating the length of time required to start relaxing current restrictions.
@Papafox, maybe the market found out that HCQ has Dr. Zelenko's 100% success rate.

Market price increase can also be a result of short squeeze... see case of TSLA. But I think people are just reacting to the recent reduction in % incr of daily deaths and the updated UW projection.

 

[abasile]

Requiring a mask is rather draconian, probably unconstitutional. Perhaps employers can require them in the workplace, but requiring them out in public is a bit much (in terms of freedom). For example, if I'm taking a jog outside, I don't want to be wearing a mask...

In a state of emergency, the government has a lot more latitude.

I agree about outdoor exercise in uncrowded areas, though. Some of the trails where we live are used very lightly, and the terrain is gentle enough that one can go well off the trail to avoid others when necessary. My wife and I just returned from a hike in the snow. We were the only people out. Wearing a mask just isn't necessary in these conditions. Our local post office is another story!

 

[Norbert]

ps : Like this Bill Ackman tweet.

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.​

Is he confusing 50x with 50% ?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Is he confusing 50x with 50% ?

Reading his twitter feed, apparently not.
I wish this belief were true but it seems impossible given what we know. Also, you'd think actual epidemiologists would know better than a hedge fund manager.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Disconnect between reality and the market ? Don't they know the # of cases is tied to # of tests at this point ?

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

Investors were encouraged by data that shows a slowing in the number of daily U.S. coronavirus cases, although it is still early to determine a lasting trend. There were about 30,000 new cases on Thursday, 32,100 cases on Friday, 33,260 cases on Saturday, and then a slowing to just 28,200 new cases Sunday, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins.
​

ps : Like this Bill Ackman tweet.

Dow soars 1,600 points as growth rate of new coronavirus cases appears to slow

I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.​

I do find this a bit mysterious, but there was good news, as has been mentioned (the Bill Ackman tweet is ridiculous, of course - but if the market is making decisions based on that....). For what it is worth, the models were adjusted to predict fewer deaths and a slightly shorter tail. And New York expressed optimism. At least, it appears that all this social distancing is helping, rather than doing nothing.

That being said, I do think that the market is starting to think restrictions will be lifted at the end of April (consistent with the agreed timeline). I don't think there is any way that this will happen, though. At least, I don't think it would be a good idea at all, and would lead to a massive second wave. It is entirely possible that Trump will go down that path, though. It's just going to take too much time for infections to die down in all parts of the country, and there is too much infrastructure (temperature, test, trace, & track, etc.) to put in place to allow re-opening - can't all be done in just three weeks.

In any case, it seemed to me that today the market was pricing in a bit more optimism than warranted. Fauci, after all, said "we may never go back to normal" <without a vaccine>. It's going to be an "80% economy" or so until there's either a broadly effective therapy, a spectacular real-time test, trace, and track infrastructure, or a vaccine. A large number of people won't want to fly, in-person sporting events won't happen, etc. They simply can't. For sure everyone will need to wear masks (probably mandatory in enclosed spaces and crowds is my guess), but I don't think that's going to be a magic bullet to prevent super spreading events.

I just feel like the market can't possibly be pricing in that 80% economy. There is some chance of a miraculous treatment, or a pre-existing proven vaccine being truly effective (like the BCG), and that does have to be priced in conditionally, but it seems like that's being given too much weight.

Of course, it's also possible that the market expects Trump to simply build up a massive infrastructure of ventilators (10x or 100x what we currently have) and temporary hospitals, and a massive pipeline of PPE which effectively protects medical workers (full hazmat suits for everyone?), and then just let things rip (with the ensuing 2 million deaths).

All quite mysterious. The market is very mysterious though. I guess it's possible these are bargain prices and the best thing to do is to just go all in (rather than 20% or whatever). Just having a hard time justifying making that move.

 

[deonb]

Is he confusing 50x with 50% ?

He's confusing math with 'pulling numbers out of thin air'.

 

[ZeApelido]

Requiring a mask is rather draconian, probably unconstitutional. Perhaps employers can require them in the workplace, but requiring them out in public is a bit much (in terms of freedom). For example, if I'm taking a jog outside, I don't want to be wearing a mask...

Live Free Or Die Kill Others

 

[PhaseWhite]

I do find this a bit mysterious, but there was good news, as has been mentioned (the Bill Ackman tweet is ridiculous, of course - but if the market is making decisions based on that....). For what it is worth, the models were adjusted to predict fewer deaths and a slightly shorter tail. And New York expressed optimism. At least, it appears that all this social distancing is helping, rather than doing nothing.

That being said, I do think that the market is starting to think restrictions will be lifted at the end of April (consistent with the agreed timeline). I don't think there is any way that this will happen, though. At least, I don't think it would be a good idea at all, and would lead to a massive second wave. It is entirely possible that Trump will go down that path, though. It's just going to take too much time for infections to die down in all parts of the country, and there is too much infrastructure (temperature, test, trace, & track, etc.) to put in place to allow re-opening - can't all be done in just three weeks.

In any case, it seemed to me that today the market was pricing in a bit more optimism than warranted. Fauci, after all, said "we may never go back to normal" <without a vaccine>. It's going to be an "80% economy" or so until there's either a broadly effective therapy, a spectacular real-time test, trace, and track infrastructure, or a vaccine. A large number of people won't want to fly, in-person sporting events won't happen, etc. They simply can't.

I just feel like the market can't possibly be pricing in that 80% economy. There is some chance of a miraculous treatment, or a pre-existing proven vaccine being truly effective (like the BCG), and that does have to be priced in conditionally, but it seems like that's being given too much weight.

Of course, it's also possible that the market expects Trump to simply build up a massive infrastructure of ventilators (10x or 100x what we currently have) and temporary hospitals, and a massive pipeline of PPE which effectively protects medical workers (full hazmat suits for everyone?), and then just let things rip (with the ensuing 2 million deaths).

All quite mysterious. The market is very mysterious though. I guess it's possible these are bargain prices and the best thing to do is to just go all in (rather than 20% or whatever). Just having a hard time justifying making that move.

Not long ago the market massively under appreciated TSLA, then decided it was worth 5x the price less than a year later...

We won’t see the real impacts to earnings for another 3 months but at some point unemployment and loan defaults will matter. Stocks are trading like we won’t have but a minor recession or any recession at all.

 

[Mad@gascar]

For the armchair arithmeticians amongst us --
I was staring at my Log normal daily mortality per capita graph I post daily and realized that the curve is kinda sorta an ellipse.
Since the area of an ellipse is A*B*Pi, it is easy to calculate total expected mortality once the peak is evident.

Would the armchair mathematicians please stop throwing around the term "log normal graph". Log normal does not mean what you think it means. The term you are looking for is "semi log plot".

(You might also want to rethink your theory as to how to integrate a curve that looks like an ellipse in a semi log plot. Hint: It has nothing to do with the area of an ellipse.)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Speaking of Navarro...not a medical doctor, but he is an economist. Apparently (perhaps) not quite as senile as he sounds:

Maggie Haberman on Twitter

(Though, perhaps, he focused too much on the silly travel ban, which simply delayed things. Gotta follow through...)

 

[renim]

Australian prime minister covid19 status report

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is pretty darned outstanding, they are only one step away from mandating masks in public and retail enclosures. At that point they will have the pieces needed in place for effective social distancing without a lockdown.

As for the rest of the country ?
Probably weeks away, and who knows in the brain dead, trumper and evangelical infected Southern states.

You know. That’s the second time you’ve made a blanket insult to “southern states”. You sir, are on ignore.

 

[eevee-fan]

So much for flattening the curve, I guess we will be seeing a big spike restart again in about 2 weeks... (see first minute of video)

 

[MXLRplus]

You know. That’s the second time you’ve made a blanket insult to “southern states”. You sir, are on ignore.

Laredo, Texas was perhaps the first city to put teeth in their 'mask rule' - $1000 fine.

 

[Daniel in SD]

FYI the women pictured is not the president of the AMA, though she has the same opinion. I just thought the chyron was hilarious for some reason. I have a dark sense of humor.

 

[dhanson865]

To be certain I'm still pro cheap mask, just saw this being covered elsewhere and thought it was worth sharing. Anyone pro mask will have to debunk the significance of this for the anti mask crowd.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/...sks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison

"Discussion: Neither surgical nor cotton masks effectively filtered SARS–CoV-2 during coughs by infected patients."

“We do not know whether masks shorten the travel distance of droplets during coughing. “

 

[FoverM]

Here are the top 20 states in terms of Positives/Million as of today:

Of this grouping, NY and NJ are outliers on the high side while WA is on the low side. Most states are in the channel in the center. The Log2 plot makes it easy to see the doubling times.

Data from covidtracking.com, pop data from census.gov.

 

[SMAlset]

The number of staff at this Detroit hospital that tested positive is rather mind blowing.

More than 700 employees at one Detroit hospital system test positive for coronavirus