Coronavirus

[pilotSteve]

<snip> So anytime somebody starts out with the arguments that Trump was right about hqc, you should be very skeptical. It may have some therapeutic effect, if it's taken early enough in terms of softening the trajectory for some patients but we don't even know that. In any case this guy is talking out of the side of his head.

We each have our opinions, I found his explanation of how low O2 saturation is related to this disease and how other therapies (possibly CHQ) offer equal or better solutions to ventilators by enhancing hemoglobins oxygen binding efficiency, especially in early stages of the disease.

 

[JRP3]

How about the definition of someone who believes they are not smart enough to know for certain whether God exists or not? Or, (using not very politically correct vernacular), believes that God is the father of all men or no men?

.

Straying too far off topic here, DM me if you wish to discuss further.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I can leave the house without my phone and often do. The people most likely to not comply can and will too.

You don't need 100% compliance. Most people can't survive more than an hour without Facebook and Instagram.
Businesses could also require a phone to enter. Non compliance could end up requiring social distancing anyway.

 

[dfwatt]

We each have our opinions, I found his explanation of how low O2 saturation is related to this disease and how other therapies (possibly CHQ) offer equal or better solutions to ventilators by enhancing hemoglobins oxygen binding efficiency, especially in early stages of the disease.

That's his claim not anything that someone has verified. Where has that been verified is the question you have to ask?

 

[eevee-fan]

You don't need 100% compliance. Most people can't survive more than an hour without Facebook and Instagram.
Businesses could also require a phone to enter. Non compliance could end up requiring social distancing anyway.

Speaking of Facebook, they are already tracking you via bluetooth and GPS.

 

[TEG]

Your implication is that the task force did not recommend Remdesivir because there is not data behind it's use. This is not correct.

Remdesivir is in EXTREMELY limited production and Gilead is passing it over to only selected hospital pharmacies. Before this, it was "compassionate care" use only and literally had to be shipped one treatment at a time to the prescribing physician.

The data, actually, are far better for Remdesivir (both efficacy and side-effect profile) than HCQ.

The underlying problem is this is an investigational medicine, and there simply is not that much of it out there. It's made in batches, then stored for clinical trials, so that everyone in the trial gets the drug from the same batch (i.e. remove one variable that could confound the results).

HCQ has been around for 40+ years, it's easy to make, and it out there because it is used for other conditions.

The recommendation was made because of relative availability, nothing more, nothing less.

So what about mass produced Chinese Remdesivir "copycat" medication?
Chinese firm copies Gilead's remdesivir, the most promising drug against the new coronavirus

...Amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, Gilead Sciences’ experimental remdesivir has emerged as the most promising candidate against the deadly pathogen....
...The Chinese pharma BrightGene has successfully copied remdesivir, the company said ...
...What's more, the Suzhou-based firm said it has already mass-produced remdesivir's active ingredient and is in the process of turning it into finished doses...

Are they using that in China, but not available elsewhere due to international patents?

---------------------

Hmm:
China’s BrightGene successfully copies Gilead’s coronavirus hopeful remdesivir
China slaps down local biotech over claims it could produce Gilead’s experimental coronavirus drug

 

[Daniel in SD]

Speaking of Facebook, they are already tracking you via bluetooth and GPS.

iOS does not allow Facebook to use bluetooth and you can turn off location services on an app by app basis (which you should do!).
It is funny that the vast majority of people are fine with private companies tracking their every movement to target ads. That's why I said it's a marketing problem, not a technological one.

 

[defc0n]

Admittedly, both the mortality rate and just how contagious this thing is ended up being worse than I originally thought. I also did not foresee the issue of hospitals not being able to handle the peak number of patients in their care.

But with all the numbers being thrown out there by people who you think would be smart and know better, I think Maddox is probably pretty close to the truth here:

Full video here:

TLDR: about a 0.5% true mortality rate. Which is still very bad of course. And obviously depends on individual risk factor.

 

[winfield100]

Time for a poll:
If your daily fare is magic bullet stuff -- vaccine, meds, herd immunity ...

A question: Do you wear a mask outside the home ? We don’t go anywhere.
Do you wash your hands before eating or preparing food ? and afterwards
Do you wash your hands after you go to the bathroom ? Sigh, not always
Do you maintain social distancing outside the home ? We stay in front yard.

We are in SW Floriduh, ~2.5+ mortality, Lee County.
We have idjits who brag about “freedom and such”, who travel out of state and back, to restaurants
We have short term rentals, _finally_ cracked down on (under 30 days)
I expect to venture out again maybe August, but will re-evaluate

 

[eevee-fan]

Word from the top...

Social distance at home, no Sunday Service.
Alabama church is struck by lightning on Easter Sunday as tornados hit Deep South

 

[TEG]

...about a 0.5% true mortality rate. Which is still very bad of course. And obviously depends on individual risk factor.

[ Captain Obvious here... ] Do keep in mind it is a bit apples/oranges to compare that to other viruses (like flu) where people already have immunities including having taken yearly vaccines to avoid getting it.
Covid-19 is extra scary due to easy spread and chances are that most people have no immunity. So multiply that mortality rate by the number of people that contract it.

 

[bkp_duke]

So what about mass produced Chinese Remdesivir "copycat" medication?
Chinese firm copies Gilead's remdesivir, the most promising drug against the new coronavirus


Are they using that in China, but not available elsewhere due to international patents?

---------------------

Hmm:
China’s BrightGene successfully copies Gilead’s coronavirus hopeful remdesivir
China slaps down local biotech over claims it could produce Gilead’s experimental coronavirus drug

If they are actually using that in China, I hope Gilead sues them into oblivion. It's a clear cut case of IP theft. Gilead has given up zero rights to the drug, and the Chinese pharma companies would be required to get permission and pay a license fee to synthesize it.

 

[dqd88]

Hi, I haven't followed the coronavirus discussion here much, trying to catch up some, and seeking more reasoned thinking (ie imagine how the discussion would flow between Elon and other science-based thinkers). I have mostly been on twitter, reddit, youtube... and reading many articles and watching doctors/scientists opine. The discourse on those other social platforms though I find to be too choppy and full of low-value ramblings and knee-jerk fear mongering. (But the doctors/scientist are good)

If I may ask - what is the overall sentiment on this board?

* Is it optimisitc? Ie, the virus is waning, the curve is flattening, we see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's getting brighter by the day? The economy took a big hit but can recovery reasonably well over the next couple quarters.

Or

* Is it pessimistic? Ie, we can't let off the brakes for many months because the virus will return and many people will die. We are heading for another "great recession"?

Or somewhere in the middle or in some neutral zone?

Or a mix of all of the above?

I've read some of the posts here but without context it's hard to get a read. I think I'd have to start back several hundred pages to get context and that would take too long. Thanks

 

[defc0n]

[ Captain Obvious here... ] Do keep in mind it is a bit apples/oranges to compare that to other viruses (like flu) where people already have immunities including having taken yearly vaccines to avoid getting it.
Covid-19 is extra scary due to easy spread and chances are that most people have no immunity. So multiply that mortality rate by the number of people that contract it.

yeah you can play with the number of how many people will contract it (it will be some high percentage) and the likelihood of having any decent better treatments than what we have today in a reasonable time, and your number of deaths should look very bleak indeed. Even worse if we took no social distance measures of course.

It is looking like it is about 5x worse than I thought it would be, maybe a bit more.

 

[bkp_duke]

Hi, I haven't followed the coronavirus discussion here much, trying to catch up some, and seeking more reasoned thinking (ie imagine how the discussion would flow between Elon and other science-based thinkers). I have mostly been on twitter, reddit, youtube... and reading many articles and watching doctors/scientists opine. The discourse on those other social platforms though I find to be too choppy and full of low-value ramblings and knee-jerk fear mongering. (But the doctors/scientist are good)

If I may ask - what is the overall sentiment on this board?

* Is it optimisitc? Ie, the virus is waning, the curve is flattening, we see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's getting brighter by the day? The economy took a big hit but can recovery reasonably well over the next couple quarters.

Or

* Is it pessimistic? Ie, we can't let off the brakes for many months because the virus will return and many people will die. We are heading for another "great recession"?

Or somewhere in the middle or in some neutral zone?

Or a mix of all of the above?

I've read some of the posts here but without context it's hard to get a read. I think I'd have to start back several hundred pages to get context and that would take too long. Thanks

Pick your location

NYC - you are @#$%'d
CA - going to suck being home for months, but you are fine

everywhere in the middle = varying degrees of idiots



There is no herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2. You let us social distancing, you can expect Wave #2 incoming 1-2 weeks later.

 

[HG Wells]

Looking like Trump is going to fire Fauci.

Trump just retweeted conspiracy theorist demanding #FireFauci after Fauci appears on cable news

 

[Papafox]

Hi, I haven't followed the coronavirus discussion here much, trying to catch up some, and seeking more reasoned thinking (ie imagine how the discussion would flow between Elon and other science-based thinkers). I have mostly been on twitter, reddit, youtube... and reading many articles and watching doctors/scientists opine. The discourse on those other social platforms though I find to be too choppy and full of low-value ramblings and knee-jerk fear mongering. (But the doctors/scientist are good)

If I may ask - what is the overall sentiment on this board?

* Is it optimisitc? Ie, the virus is waning, the curve is flattening, we see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's getting brighter by the day? The economy took a big hit but can recovery reasonably well over the next couple quarters.

Or

* Is it pessimistic? Ie, we can't let off the brakes for many months because the virus will return and many people will die. We are heading for another "great recession"?

Or somewhere in the middle or in some neutral zone?

Or a mix of all of the above?

I've read some of the posts here but without context it's hard to get a read. I think I'd have to start back several hundred pages to get context and that would take too long. Thanks

Right now, this thread is far from a consensus on what's coming with Coronavirus and how best to respond. That's a good thing because uncertainty still rules within the scientific community.

1) Wait for robust scientifically-controlled clinical tests to come in before using various anti-viral therapies or look at a less-reliable data and do something in the meantime if physician believes risks are outweighed by potential benefits and government allows that use for COVID-19. This is one of the hottest controversies at the moment.

2) The number of people in a given country who presently have or already have had the coronavirus is a small, single digit percentage vs. those who believe the virus might be more widespread than than the official numbers, possibly by a factor of 10X or more

On the other hand, there's general consensus so far:
a) wear a mask when out in public
b) social-distancing and shelter-in-place are needed until more robust testing, greater availability of N95 masks and PPEs for health providers, and several other requirements are met

 

[renim]

Some 97+ percent of the population are susceptible. It is nonsensical to advocate testing them all every couple of days.

Ok, scan them, not test them.

Hands up who has a watch/band that scans resting heart rate. Ok we now have a population with a viral indicator that arrives before fever.

Hands up who has a watch/band that scans so2 oxygen saturation. Ok we now have a population with a lung pathology response.

And place thermal scanners are building entrance.

Mask are only useful if they are useful. Preliminary Covid19 Testing has demonstrated that dental face masks are basically useless, so a false sense of protection for the community and the user. Which is dangerous because that encourages a reduction in social distancing.

2 days ago i was explaining to my daughter why a particular mans mask at the shopping centre was cosmetic value only. He had a beard, so airflow inhalation would go straight through there. It had a valve, so airflow exhalation would go straight through there. It was probably a very good mask, could've been used to protect a healthcare worker instead.

We have an expression in Oz,
as useful as tits on a bull.

 

[TEG]

So what about mass produced Chinese Remdesivir "copycat" medication?
Chinese firm copies Gilead's remdesivir, the most promising drug against the new coronavirus

If they are actually using that in China, I hope Gilead sues them into oblivion. It's a clear cut case of IP theft. Gilead has given up zero rights to the drug, and the Chinese pharma companies would be required to get permission and pay a license fee to synthesize it.

Sort of a moral dilemma if the inventor isn't in a position to manufacture enough of a medication ( that is proving effective and it could save many lives) but isn't willing to let someone else infringe during a crisis...
But drug companies tend to have some form of making money for shareholders in their mission statements, so, yeah, "by the book" no matter what...

Chinese Drugmaker Starts Mass-Producing Experimental COVID-19 Drug

 

[TEG]

Ok, scan them, not test them.
Hands up who has a watch/band that scans resting heart rate. Ok we now have a population with a viral indicator that arrives before fever.
Hands up who has a watch/band that scans so2 oxygen saturation. Ok we now have a population with a lung pathology response.
And place thermal scanners are building entrance.
...

US Health Weather Map by Kinsa

Fever-tracking smart thermometers may see the spread of COVID-19 in this online map
This map uses smart thermometers to detect potential surges in COVID-19 cases
This company claims its smart thermometer could help detect coronavirus hot spots faster than the CDC
Digital thermometer data may provide insight into COVID-19 surges

Your Sacrifices are Saving Lives