Certainly. I take no exception to your points, and I agree it's probably the source of Elon's frustration. I am eager for these measures to be adopted, both for the sake of my investment in Tesla, and for my own work life. My point is that Elon isn't choosing elevate this more nuanced argument. Yes, he has appended his commentary with more reasonable suggestions and observations. His core message is still inflammatory and unhelpful. If it weren't, it would not have sparked such controversy among reasonable people on this forum.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Certainly. I take no exception to your points, and I agree it's probably the source of Elon's frustration. I am eager for these measures to be adopted, both for the sake of my investment in Tesla, and for my own work life. My point is that Elon isn't choosing elevate this more nuanced argument. Yes, he has appended his commentary with more reasonable suggestions and observations. His core message is still inflammatory and unhelpful. If it weren't, it would not have sparked such controversy among reasonable people on this forum.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
What a bunch of negative Nancies. The lack of imagination and defeatism is so un-American.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Yeah, and nearly 2 months later we still don't have more CV deaths than 2018 flu season. That's the point.
This idea that the "hard lockdown" is preventing spread is silly. We aren't in a hard lockdown, I just sat in traffic trying to pick up a furnace part I ordered. Yesterday in Philly there were crowds of hundreds congregated to watch the Blue Angels flyover. The fact that schools are cancelled for the year is just stupid.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Yeah, upper income people, like me and I suspect, you.
How do you reconcile this with your earlier claims that unemployment benefits are too generous right now?
Did South Korea, China, Australia, and New Zealand make a mistake? Or is your argument that it's impossible for us to do what they have done?
Kind of curious why no one thought this article was important enough to post here.
Dr. Anthony Fauci says Gilead’s remdesivir will set a new ‘standard of care’ for coronavirus treatment
Dr. Anthony Fauci says Gilead’s remdesivir will set a new ‘standard of care’ for coronavirus treatment
EVNow
Well-Known Member
What demo are you going to protect ?
- Above 60
- BMI > 25 (or > 30 or > 40) ?
- Hypertension
- Hyperlipidemia
- Diabetes
- Respiratory problems
- Cancer survivors
- Any other immune issues
How many does that leave ?
We should also seriously consider what happens when
- Someone in the office / restaurant etc is tested positive. Are we going to shut it down for a day and deep clean ? How about a large building - will you shut it down and deep clean ? Ask everyone who may have been in contact (including using rest rooms / elevators) self-quarantine for 14 days ?
- Someone in the office gets seriously ill / dies. How likely are others to feel ok to keep going to office ? How about someone who works in a restaurant dies ?
When the economy "opens" - its going to be chaotic. People are going to act unpredictably depending on news and events beyond the control of individual businesses.
What will Tesla do - for eg - if here is an outbreak of Covid in the factory. Shut it down for a week - what if the county orders them to close for a week ?
Let no one think once the economy "opens" it will be business as usual.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
or this ...
Live updates: As ‘quarantine fatigue’ spreads, Fauci says second wave of coronavirus is ‘inevitable’
ps :
Looks like it could help individuals - but don't think it alters the fundamentals of the pandemic.
- Fauci said the median time of recovery for patients taking the drug was 11 days, compared with 15 days in the placebo group.
- The results suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group, according to a statement from the National Institutes of Health released later Wednesday.
MXLRplus
Active Member
My thoughts were the government would squander the money on themselves and the rich and do little to help the middle and lower class.
I don't believe I misread the situation.
We were 6th in deaths per million last month. Now we are 10th. I'm not sure we suck as bad as people are hoping we do.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
And you think the majority of those participating in the economy have these issues? Ok....
As with everything else, common sense must be used. People who are young and fit should be allowed to get back to work to help support the economy and in turn support those who cannot work. I don’t see how anyone can disagree with that.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I think we're in agreement then?
I'm definitely not in favor of squandering money on the rich but I do feel that the changes made to unemployment insurance are good. If you look at polls, it's not poor people who are in favor of "opening up" the economy.
Personally I think we should compare ourselves to countries that are successfully suppressing the virus. Comparing ourselves to failures seems like loser talk.
My concern about this thread is that anyone who posts some encouraging news (that isn't the result of a large controlled study) is challenged heavily and often laughed at "smily 'funny' meme" for showing this optimism. We are deemed unscientific and unworthy of consideration. Now Fauci, who holds a reputation for being very scientifically-based in his decision making, says the evidence is sufficient to consider remdesivir to be the "new standard of care" in COVID19 patients.
@EVNow , the reason we don't see recent posts of your article about the second wave is that it is not news. Optimists and pessimists alike realize a second wave will materialize.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Goalposts moved!
Do we really need to delve into a debate on the merits of per capita measurements, when incidence in all the countries in question is below 10%, outbreaks tend to occur in clusters, and we have massive density differences as compared to other countries?
Try comparing NY, NJ, CT, and MA to the top 10 countries.
To me, success looks like defeating the virus. That's what real Americans would do.
In other news, my wife just showed me the tweets from Elon that she saw (which I captured above), and she was very upset (picture attached). She says she doesn't want to support anyone like that. So, she's not going to be getting a Model Y - she'll stick with her Spark EV. Probably better for the environment anyway. She asked (I'm not kidding), "Do you talk about THAT in your forum?" Proudly, I said yes, I had compared the tweets to a stupidity contest with Donald Trump (which to my surprise received a bunch of disagrees, which I find to be inexplicable, because it's not a stretch at all to say that...just the unfortunate truth).
Real consequences, folks.
Last edited:
bubb
Member
Sure, shutting down every bar/restaurant/sporting event/concert/public gathering/most businesses is just a trifle. Or, just maybe, you are setting your priors to fit your (at this point very belabored) point regarding these lockdowns. I'll stick with the peer-reviewed science (both theory and observation from prior outbreak locations) over "best guesses" from randos and I'm glad my local officials are doing the same.
Amazing that we are only ~6 weeks into SIP (compared to almost 11 weeks with much more severe measures in Wuhan) and it's now clear we never had a chance at unity long enough to get out of this quagmire anytime soon.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Anything that reduces mortality and reduces the length of hospital stays is good. I hope that the results hold up in more severe cases. Doesn't look like it's going to be a game-changer either way, unfortunately. Has to be administered with an IV drip, and hospital stays are still quite long.
We need to keep focused on defeating (eliminating) the virus - that we know can be done with near 100% certainty. Treatments are uncertain (and even in the best case won't work for everyone, and may not eliminate long-term consequences of infection).
No one is going to feel THAT much better knowing there's an IV drug waiting for them in the ICU for when they get sick. Can't really see that jumpstarting the economy. Personally, I just want to know I can't get the virus. Seems reasonable.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
So less than half the population? And most of those probably account for many of the other issues listed too (hypertension, diabetes...etc.). Seems to me like obesity causes a lot more deaths and strain in the health care system that Covid-19 and should probably be a main focus going forward, but since it isn’t contagious, we mostly don’t give it a second thought. But this is a whole other can of worms.....
All of this to say that there is a significant portion of the population which is young and fit enough to return to work. They should be allowed to do so immediately.
Actually I think you're misinterpreting the smiley icon. That is given out frequently as a negative comment but it's not given out for encouraging news, such as there is encouraging news. It's giving out for pieces of covid-19 denial, cooked or cherry-picked statistics or poorly collected data or poorly done studies that support that denial and the like.
Personally, I do feel positively about remdesivir at least from the possibility that it may be moderately effective and may help some people survive who otherwise wouldn't. But even that cautious optimism has not been proven as this last study only showed a trend towards declining mortality. Perhaps better powered trials with larger numbers will tease that out. But it's not a game changer and that's really the point. And last but not least, it's likely to be expensive although I suspect in a pandemic the patent holder will probably not get away with gouging people. But I will emphasize the positive in the spirit you are suggesting, such that this could be the beginning of some kind of cocktail that might actually significantly reduce mortality, analogous to the cocktail in HIV.
It doesn't in any way really change the USA's failure in relationship to the grunt work of covid-19 epidemiology which is testing, contact tracing, and various forms of intervention aimed at breaking transmission chains. While we have gotten the Rt below 1 in a lot of States we've done it with a Brute Force approach that can't be sustained indefinitely. The question is can we keep Rt under one with any semblance of a normal economy, at least until we have a reasonably effective vaccine. if you don't hear people jumping up and down on the forum it's because it's really not clear how to do that . . .at least not in these United or should I say disunited States of America, where we still look 100 miles away from adequate testing, and where various forms of mitigation are seen as an affront to our 'Murican gun-toting rights. And I for one hate being told that I can't go out in public!
Last edited:
Singer3000
Member
Good to hear Remdesivir isn’t a total wash. Someone I trust and in a position to know has told me for a month or more that it’s likely to be useful to some extent but not a silver bullet and won’t change the game by itself. Social distancing here to stay at some level until the vax.
It puzzles me why markets still brush off this unsettling likelihood but trading volumes are pretty low. I have a suspicion that the worm may turn when the worst of Work From Home is over for the bigger funds and investment houses. The bosses tend to get tingly when their traders are out of ear and eye shot from Risk, Compliance and Investment Committee and cap their risk taking behaviours. Which might be one explanation for the lower volumes.
If volumes pickup and the rally sustains, even through the advent of the second waves, then I’ll unpick my newly placed macro shorts and admit defeat.
Similar threads
