Yes an intriguing question is whether or not folks with minimal to no symptoms have in fact a partial immune recognition for components of covid-19, perhaps particularly Spike protein components or perhaps other component proteins. But if yes it's an interesting question to try to understand the enormous differential manifestations of infection and inflammation across such a wide spectrum from virtually no immune system arousal to lethal septic levels of inflammation.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Yes an intriguing question is whether or not folks with minimal to no symptoms have in fact a partial immune recognition for components of covid-19, perhaps particularly Spike protein components or perhaps other component proteins. But if yes it's an interesting question to try to understand the enormous differential manifestations of infection and inflammation across such a wide spectrum from virtually no immune system arousal to lethal septic levels of inflammation.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Are you old enough to remember chickenpox parties ?
Not quite in the same vein, but pre-schools can sell 'a day with the kiddies' to olde farts hoping for exposure to non lethal, cross reactive viruses. A couple hours in the sand box should do it.
Joking aside, this idea does suggest a mechanism of Covid inflammatory syndrome: Immune system priming from Covid-19 exposure, followed by immune dysregulation upon subsequent exposure to other, usually benign, viruses.
Yes it will be interesting to see as our understanding of this syndrome in kids evolves whether it's cross-reactivity or autoimmune or who knows what? And yes I am old enough to remember chicken pox parties. Although my parents were not big on the idea!
Similar to my GA chart above, here's a chart of the daily positives and tests for FL through 05/14:
As with GA, the positives are declining while testing is increasing. No reopening issues so far (when did FL reopen, anyway?). Positivity is down to 3-5%.
I would really like to know who and what was being tested up to 04/15. The positivity between 03/22 and 04/15 was remarkably stable at around 10%, so the apparent outbreak was almost solely due to the increase in testing. After 04/15, positivity dropped quickly to 5% or so. If there was active spreading up to 04/15 then the positivity should have been increasing, not staying stable, assuming the population being tested was similar throughout.
Are these tests truly detecting CV19 or something else?
As with GA, the positives are declining while testing is increasing. No reopening issues so far (when did FL reopen, anyway?). Positivity is down to 3-5%.
I would really like to know who and what was being tested up to 04/15. The positivity between 03/22 and 04/15 was remarkably stable at around 10%, so the apparent outbreak was almost solely due to the increase in testing. After 04/15, positivity dropped quickly to 5% or so. If there was active spreading up to 04/15 then the positivity should have been increasing, not staying stable, assuming the population being tested was similar throughout.
Are these tests truly detecting CV19 or something else?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Pretty sure they are quite specific to the actual sequence for the virus. (The same cannot be said for most antibody tests so far.)
Most states view a PCR positive test result as a confirmed case. Whereas other criteria (not including the PCR test) render it a "probable" case only. Every state is a bit different so you have to read up on the details.
I'm not sure that much has been opened in the actual epicenters of Miami, etc. I heard this morning they are opening up restaurants to dine-in at 50% capacity. It'll be interesting to see how things pan out over the next 2-3 weeks, that's for sure.
I am hoping that the warmer weather really does help knock things back slightly, in conjunction with continued increases in testing & tracing. Maybe that will be enough to keep Rt less than 1. Maybe they are doing a better job of targeting their testing, too. If they're opening back up these public establishments with dining inside, the clock will be ticking on purging the virus from the population. It's a difficult thing to control when one person can produce 153 cases, unless it starts at a low level... Hopefully as many people as possible will be wearing masks. A big outbreak would also have a very negative effect on business.
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Here's a chart of NY's Positivity and Tests:
I'm obviously no epidemiologist ... but it looks like an outbreak to me. The percent of people testing positive basically follows an epidemic curve, so even though the daily cases would be amped up by the testing increase, there was a true increase underlying it.
Here's FL's chart:
Very different. The increase in FL "cases" was basically due to the increase in testing up to 04/06. I guess you could make the case that FL's epidemic started earlier than NY's, so the FL chart is starting right around the middle of its peak.
I started both charts after the numbers stabilized. Before these dates, the numbers fluctuated wildly from single digits to 100%.
I'm obviously no epidemiologist ... but it looks like an outbreak to me. The percent of people testing positive basically follows an epidemic curve, so even though the daily cases would be amped up by the testing increase, there was a true increase underlying it.
Here's FL's chart:
Very different. The increase in FL "cases" was basically due to the increase in testing up to 04/06. I guess you could make the case that FL's epidemic started earlier than NY's, so the FL chart is starting right around the middle of its peak.
I started both charts after the numbers stabilized. Before these dates, the numbers fluctuated wildly from single digits to 100%.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Yes and no. I don't think it can be said with authority how COVID-19 compares to influenza.
COVID-19 has higher R0 (is more contagious) than influenza (in large part because of influenza vaccinations). Therefore, since COVID-19 affects more people more quickly it is likely pulling forward influenza deaths (older patients with commodities) that could be occurring in the future.
Also some hospital policies were designed to protect healthcare workers partly due to shortage of PPE and bed space which increased mortality rate. As figure out best course of treatment and hospital workers/ care takers get their PPE mortality will decrease.
What appears to be similar between influenza and pneumonia vs COVID-19 is that men are more likely to die than women. If I had to guess - because of smoking.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
"Authority" is a moving target, but now you know why so much effort has been spent on figuring out the IFR overall and for demographic slices.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I'd look at the deaths vs. time. Obviously it's lagging, and it is a scaled version of the cases, convolved with the infection-to-death time "impulse response," but I think it gives a better idea of the actual behavior of the epidemic. The impulse response is about 30% of an impulse, followed by a long tail (there's a significant number of people who die very quickly). (There was a paper in the last couple days outlining this - I think it might have been the French modelling paper.) So it does show some of the exponential rise if you plot that, and it's not obfuscated by the undertesting.
Unfortunately, Florida only plots the last 30 days on their website (I was hoping for an epidemic curve with date of disease onset for cases, and date of death). Maybe the data is elsewhere (Worldometer has it, but I think it is probably by date of report, not date of death - and not by date of onset for the case data.)
The other issue (depending on your data source) is that cases are not plotted by date of disease onset. The states do track this data, and if they provide it, it often makes the curve look a bit more exponential in spite of the testing limitations.
But fundamentally, regardless of the location, if you're missing 90% of the cases, it's going to be tough to see the outbreak curve. It was so dense an infection in New York it kind of looked exponential anyway. That's why I prefer to use deaths - they tend to be better counted, in spite of there being a lag.
Certainly the exponential growth rate in Florida seems a lot lower than New York. Not too surprising. It's an inherent advantage. Possibly the weather is a small advantage, too.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
In terms of IFR: I don't need to be an authority to be confident that it is at least 10x more deadly than a typical flu (which is typically under 0.1% - swine flu was about 0.02%).
This is undoubtedly true, and it results in lifespan reduction, which is kind of a big deal (most of the improvements in longevity over the last 100 years have been due to public health measures, not medical technology/advancements). The ~0.1% of people infected between 30 and 60 who die (about one quarter of whom were perfectly healthy) will also be removed from future mortality statistics.
EDIT: Corrected my statistics, which were from memory, and overly pessimistic. These numbers are based on IFR numbers from Spain, which seem slightly low to me, but may prove to be correct (we will see).
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I came back from my moron cave as you guys like to put it just to fact check your fake data.
What I bolded and underlined is just simply fake.
Take a look at the Spain (one of the most affected places as you guys love to say around here ) antibody study, adjusted for age and tell me where you see that ~0,3% of people infected between 30 and 50 die. You missed that by 10x at best.
Attachments
People manipulating stats to instill fear should be a felony. Of course I'm kidding.
They should be shot...
Hmm . . .so what's the penalty for people pedaling psychotic conspiracy theories to obfuscate the corruption and gross incompetence of government officials aligned with powerful special interests and to promote a cult of personality surrounding the Orange Moron?
dqd88
Member
A insightful peer into Sweden today.
@1:00
"I think this is a virus that will stay with us for a long time, and I think that we have to go through it"
@1:17
"it's evolution"
@6:13
"There's a number of side effects of closing the society down that we are trying to avoid"
@10:29
"I get so many questions all the time where people are saying Sweden is doing this crazy experiment. My response is you're doing a crazy experiment, because the world has never shut down to this extent."
"... we don't know what is going to work out for the best in the long-run."
Some people speaking common sense; refreshing to hear and very sad that so much of the world is being led by unfounded fear and taking drastic measures with no actual evidence to support.
@1:00
"I think this is a virus that will stay with us for a long time, and I think that we have to go through it"
@1:17
"it's evolution"
@6:13
"There's a number of side effects of closing the society down that we are trying to avoid"
@10:29
"I get so many questions all the time where people are saying Sweden is doing this crazy experiment. My response is you're doing a crazy experiment, because the world has never shut down to this extent."
"... we don't know what is going to work out for the best in the long-run."
Some people speaking common sense; refreshing to hear and very sad that so much of the world is being led by unfounded fear and taking drastic measures with no actual evidence to support.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Thanks for the review.
I apologize for the incorrect data - I will correct it - I went back and forth on this number a few times - putting down 0.1% at one point - I've calculated it before, and this was my recollection, but I may have got it wrong. I'll look through the numbers and make a more correct statement. It does get a bit confusing sometimes, because it has been so hard to nail down the actual number of infections. I should not have done it from memory!
I've corrected the statement to reflect the approximate Spanish numbers, and expanded the age range to 30-59. This results in about 0.073%, which I've rounded to 0.1%.
This is a very bad number.
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dqd88
Member
Thought of the day:
One thing we should realize is that the absolute worse-case scenario of Coronavirus is a known (ie we know fairly well what it would look like if every single person got infected).
But, the absolute worse-case of shutting down is an unknown.
Team-FEAR has not done the mental homework of exploring that unknown in any deliberate or intellectually honest way. Prove me wrong.
One thing we should realize is that the absolute worse-case scenario of Coronavirus is a known (ie we know fairly well what it would look like if every single person got infected).
But, the absolute worse-case of shutting down is an unknown.
Team-FEAR has not done the mental homework of exploring that unknown in any deliberate or intellectually honest way. Prove me wrong.
Last time I checked South Korea and Germany numbers mortality rate was 3-6x higher than influenza. Anyway, we truly do not know COVID-19' IFR as we are just starting large scale serology testing to get good estimate on cases.
~7.5 otherwise healthy people, between 30-50, out of 1000 will die of COVID-19? That is a wide and unusual age range group. Where do you get this data from?
I doubt that avg life span will be affected in this age group.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Look through my posts. I didn't say shutdown everything. I said open Fremont factory back up, as well as most businesses, but with the absolute requirement of social distancing and masks.
Don't wear a mask, get a fine.
And of course nothing absolutely insane like large gatherings (sporting events, concerts, religious services).
Sadly . . . common sense is not common (see my post from earlier today about my wife going back to work).
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