Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

So, according to Worldometers, Japan's rate was 7 deaths/Million, and Taiwan's was 0.3 deaths/Million. Japan was an order of magnitude worse than Taiwan, what's their excuse?

Japan looks amazing compared to the US, but terrible compared to Taiwan. Asia, as a whole, did far far better than other regions, in particular, Western Europe and North America. The differences are vast. How is it that the best performing European nations still did worse than the worst-performing East Asian nations?

I wish the answer were as simple as smart behavior, but I think the answer has to be far more complex.

Ask the guy keeping the stats. I can see Japan and Europe being ultra-diligent....Taiwan, Malaysia, India, not so much. When the number of cv19 deaths are this low, it's tempting for those in power to fudge half of them to heart attack.

 

[SageBrush]

And for sure the first step enabling any kind of scientific progress is to admit that we don't understand something very well.

We DO understand that SMART behavior makes a huge difference. Let's not ignore the big picture.

 

[dfwatt]

We DO understand that SMART behavior makes a huge difference. Let's not ignore the big picture.

For sure Sagebrush and I agree with you smart Behavior (prevention) has to be our lead card so to speak because right now I do think that's about all we've got. However, there are other hidden insights potentially garnered from understanding better the biology of covid-19 infection, that may allow us to seriously reduce suffering and illness. I'm sure as a physician that you would agree with that statement!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I focus on deaths. And I think daily deaths will be 75% lower in a month.

At the time of this (obviously wrong at the time) prediction, the daily deaths were around 2k per day (if we want to be charitable and pick a high number). So 500 per day was the bar. Oops (we didn't even get below that bar on a single day exiting Memorial Day weekend, with minimal reporting).

We should still limp over the 100k death mark some time in June.

Did we hit 100k yet? I'm seeing 94.6k and slowing(aka limping).

Oops. Yes, we've hit 100k, no problem (in May, not June). I don't see any signs of limping, and I don't see June on my calendar this week.

This was a pretty difficult prediction to get wrong. I'm all for optimism, but still have to be realistic.

I think it is unlikely that we'll be below 500 deaths per day in a month, unfortunately. That would mean that we'd need to be below 50-100k new cases per day in a couple weeks, at the most.

Seems pretty likely that we'll be over 100k counted deaths by the end of May.

We've had 53k deaths minimum in the last 30 days, and I don't see why we'd have fewer than 43k in the next 34 days.

As expected, those low case counts obviously didn't happen (I predicted elsewhere we would be above 750 deaths per day at the end of May, which seems will be "accomplished" no problem, unfortunately). We still seem to be rolling up new cases at 100k-120k per day or so in the US, so we are currently locked in to death rates of an average of about 750 deaths per day, even in mid-June, even if we suddenly started doing everything right, starting right now. Looks like over 130k deaths on the Johns Hopkins tracker by the end of June is pretty likely. (I'd guess 135k-140k.)

Sad state of affairs. I wonder if June will be the month we take action to stop people from dying? Or will we accelerate the deaths? The projection tools are showing Rt above 1, nationwide, now. Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah are places to keep an eye on. They are showing evidence of Rt rebounding to near 1.1, even before the Memorial Day weekend results get incorporated...

Will we get to the 1.3 million tests per day that are required to bring a quick halt to this? Or will we let case growth scale up again so that we need 5 million tests per day instead? Or are we banking on the summer to fix things? What is our plan? Are we planning to make masks mandatory when in proximity to other people, for a couple months?

 

[SageBrush]

For sure Sagebrush and I agree with you smart Behavior (prevention) has to be our lead card so to speak because right now I do think that's about all we've got. However, there are other hidden insights potentially garnered from understanding better the biology of covid-19 infection, that may allow us to seriously reduce suffering and illness. I'm sure as a physician that you would agree with that statement!

Bar none, the best treatment is to not get infected in the first place; and SMART behavior is extra-ordinarily effective in not getting infected.

I appreciate basic science as much as the next lab rat but I really would like to not dilute the message.

 

[ram1901]

Once again, this Virus panic needs to be put into perspective:
From the CDC website: Number of deaths for leading causes of death: (Per Year)
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
( Insert: as of today: The Covid-19: 100,600**) **[unfortunately, this number is distorted by deaths reported as covid when in fact they were the result of pre existing conditions that were inflamed by Covid AND with what we know now, this number could have been greatly reduced had precautions been taken early at long term care facilities.]

Diabetes: 83,564 Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633 Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Bottom line: you have a higher risk of dropping dead of a heart attack, an accident, cancer, lung disease, stroke, Alzheimer's than from the Covid-19 Virus as of today's date.
Add to that the combined total of deaths from diabetes, flue & pneumonia, liver or kidney failure or suicide.
If we so fear death we may as well stay locked up in our homes until we end up dying anyway.
We really need to get back to reality. Heart patients are suppose to change diet & exercise habits,
With Covid-19 we are suppose to use common sense to avoid getting it or passing it on.
There will always be idiots who do NOT use common sense, fortunately, they're not the majority.

 

[dfwatt]

Once again, this Virus panic needs to be put into perspective:
From the CDC website: Number of deaths for leading causes of death: (Per Year)
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
( Insert: as of today: The Covid-19: 100,600**) **[unfortunately, this number is distorted by deaths reported as covid when in fact they were the result of pre existing conditions that were inflamed by Covid AND with what we know now, this number could have been greatly reduced had precautions been taken early at long term care facilities.]

Diabetes: 83,564 Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633 Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Bottom line: you have a higher risk of dropping dead of a heart attack, an accident, cancer, lung disease, stroke, Alzheimer's than from the Covid-19 Virus as of today's date.
Add to that the combined total of deaths from diabetes, flue & pneumonia, liver or kidney failure or suicide.
If we so fear death we may as well stay locked up in our homes until we end up dying anyway.
We really need to get back to reality. Heart patients are suppose to change diet & exercise habits,
With Covid-19 we are suppose to use common sense to avoid getting it or passing it on.
There will always be idiots who do NOT use common sense, fortunately, they're not the majority.

Your notion that everybody that dies with a comorbidity is not dying from covid-19 has been debunked and already debunked several times in this thread including by this author– It's biologically specious and misleading. Additionally roughly 60% of American adults have a so-called comorbidity. So the risk of a serious illness including hospitalization and death is not trivial simply because most people are not going to die. Additionally, there's more and more evidence that folks who have had a serious case of covid-19 and were seriously ill do not get 'all better' in a matter of weeks and instead may have long-lasting health problems.

Putting all that aside, the most sensible point of emphasis is on the failure of Common Sense and the way in which Common Sense (or its absence) has been turned into some kind of political litmus test. Since that is what is costing lives unnecessarily, perhaps you might direct your attention to that issue. It's pretty refractory in this country. That's why we're doing so badly.

What do you think underpins the many and all too obvious failures of common sense?

 

[SageBrush]

perspective

The current USA mortality is from infection of ~ 4% of the populace.

I await your arithmetic

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

flue

Another guy inexplicably comparing coronavirus to chimneys.

If we so fear death we may as well stay locked up in our homes until we end up dying anyway.

I don't think there's any fear here. Just common sense and a desire to stop unnecessary deaths.

No reason to stay locked up in your homes. Get out and enjoy life and some beautiful spring weather, by yourself, or with your family, only. There are so many things to do that don't require visiting public restrooms, and allow near complete detachment from potential infection sources. For women, get a pee tube to avoid public restrooms, and pick a respectful location & method for doing your business that maintains reasonable public health (bring a shovel or trowel and keep away from water sources). Common sense and easy. Life goes on.

 

[SDRick]

For another perspective...

It’s a mess out there now. Hard to discern between what’s a real threat and what is just simple panic and hysteria. For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900.

On your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war. Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.

On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, the World GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy.

When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren’t even over the hill yet. And don’t try to catch your breath. On your 41st birthday, the United States is fully pulled into WWII. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.

Smallpox was epidemic until you were in your 40’s, as it killed 300 million people during your lifetime.

At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish. From your birth, until you are 55 you dealt with the fear of Polio epidemics each summer. You experience friends and family contracting polio and being paralyzed and/or die.

At 55 the Vietnam War begins and doesn’t end for 20 years. 4 million people perish in that conflict. During the Cold War, you lived each day with the fear of nuclear annihilation. On your 62nd birthday you have the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, almost ended. When you turn 75, the Vietnam War finally ends.

Think of everyone on the planet born in 1900. How did they endure all of that? When you were a kid in 1985 and didn’t think your 85-year-old grandparent understood how hard school was. And how mean that kid in your class was. Yet they survived through everything listed above. Perspective is an amazing art. Refined and enlightening as time goes on. Let’s try and keep things in perspective. Your parents and/or grandparents were called to endure all of the above – you are called to stay home and sit on your couch.

 

[tcpilot]

Once again, this Virus panic needs to be put into perspective:
From the CDC website: Number of deaths for leading causes of death: (Per Year)
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404...

Diabetes: 83,564 Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633 Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Bottom line: you have a higher risk of dropping dead of a heart attack, an accident, cancer, lung disease, stroke, Alzheimer's than from the Covid-19 Virus as of today's date.
Add to that the combined total of deaths from diabetes, flu & pneumonia, liver or kidney failure or suicide.
If we so fear death we may as well stay locked up in our homes until we end up dying anyway.
We really need to get back to reality. Heart patients are suppose to change diet & exercise habits,
With Covid-19 we are suppose to use common sense to avoid getting it or passing it on.
There will always be idiots who do NOT use common sense, fortunately, they're not the majority.

@ram1901, I'm sure this has been mentioned before (and I've been lurking on this thread since it began, and have read all 815 pages), we're just about 42% of the way through 2020 and are at >100k deaths for Covid. IMO (and this is solely my observational opinion) there are basically 3 possible short-term outcomes:

1) As a society, we tilt towards more responsible behavior and infection rates fall - regardless of successful drug/vaccine treatment discoveries (least likely)

2) The USA continues on the path we're on - localized & fragmented behavior, with varying effectiveness, resulting in a more or less consistent infection rate - and the rate of new infections/deaths stays about the same (more likely)

3) Our fearless leadership continues to push for reopening, restarting the economy, ignoring science and undermining responsible individuals, health/medical organizations, ideas & behaviors, and we experience a large second wave, similar to the 1918-1920 flu pandemic; infection rates dramatically increase (most likely)

For option #1 that will land Covid somewhere just below cancer and well above Alzheimer's.

For option #2, it would put us on track for roughly 250k deaths in 2020 assuming the math stays consistent and no effective treatments are discovered before the end of the year. This would put Covid as the 3rd leading cause of death.

For option #3, prediction is a little more difficult for a non-medical professional like myself, but will most certainly approach cancer and heart disease as the most common causes of death, by the time 2020 is over. And if we don't get a handle on it by 2021....well...I don't want to think about that.

Again, this is all my opinion/observation and I'm no doctor, epidemiologist or public health professional.

/TCP

PS: There is always the chance that an anti-black swan event will somehow make the coronavirus disappear, but as they say in the military, hope is not a strategy.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

but as they say in the military, hope is not a strategy.

Yep. It's well known in disaster mitigation and infectious diseases that overreaction is far preferable to under-reaction, because you can always dial back strategies if they are too strict and things are better than expected. But it's not possible to react if you don't react soon enough (for example, if we had acted and closed 1 week earlier (as called for in this thread at the time), we would have saved 60k lives or so vs. where we are now).

COVID-19 Projections | United States

On the other hand, if we'd been a week later, we'd be at close to 250k deaths at this point. So I guess you can say we're winning?

COVID-19 Projections | United States

Exponentials are sh**ty.

Here's some current Rt estimates:

COVID-19 Infections Tracker

 

[KG M3]

I have seen in Whole Foods, even though there is someone at the door handing out masks, groups of people will walk past and into the store without masks.

It is time to have designated stores for morons.

Was there a time when Whole Foods was otherwise?

 

[dfwatt]

Another guy inexplicably comparing coronavirus to chimneys.



I don't think there's any fear here. Just common sense and a desire to stop unnecessary deaths.

It was this guy with the flue comment - his spelling aint much better than his common cents (sic). It's a mystery as to why Moron Spray is not sold out everywhere.

 

[Norbert]

Once again, this Virus panic needs to be put into perspective:
From the CDC website: Number of deaths for leading causes of death: (Per Year)
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
( Insert: as of today: The Covid-19: 100,600**) **[unfortunately, this number is distorted by deaths reported as covid when in fact they were the result of pre existing conditions that were inflamed by Covid AND with what we know now, this number could have been greatly reduced had precautions been taken early at long term care facilities.]

Diabetes: 83,564 Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633 Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Bottom line: you have a higher risk of dropping dead of a heart attack, an accident, cancer, lung disease, stroke, Alzheimer's than from the Covid-19 Virus as of today's date.
Add to that the combined total of deaths from diabetes, flue & pneumonia, liver or kidney failure or suicide.
If we so fear death we may as well stay locked up in our homes until we end up dying anyway.
We really need to get back to reality. Heart patients are suppose to change diet & exercise habits,
With Covid-19 we are suppose to use common sense to avoid getting it or passing it on.
There will always be idiots who do NOT use common sense, fortunately, they're not the majority.

If you extrapolate New York City's actual deaths, including above-average deaths, to the US, you get more than 1 million deaths, and NYC is still far from herd immunity. So the potential of danger is on the scale of the sum of the numbers you posted here. At least for cities.

 

[dfwatt]

Bar none, the best treatment is to not get infected in the first place; and SMART behavior is extra-ordinarily effective in not getting infected.

I appreciate basic science as much as the next lab rat but I really would like to not dilute the message.

Fair enough but maybe I'm just a hopeless Optimist and I believe that the American brain can handle two thoughts at once. On second thought forget about that idea.

 

[bkp_duke]

Once again, this Virus panic needs to be put into perspective:
From the CDC website: Number of deaths for leading causes of death: (Per Year)
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
( Insert: as of today: The Covid-19: 100,600**) **[unfortunately, this number is distorted by deaths reported as covid when in fact they were the result of pre existing conditions that were inflamed by Covid AND with what we know now, this number could have been greatly reduced had precautions been taken early at long term care facilities.]

Diabetes: 83,564 Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633 Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Bottom line: you have a higher risk of dropping dead of a heart attack, an accident, cancer, lung disease, stroke, Alzheimer's than from the Covid-19 Virus as of today's date.
Add to that the combined total of deaths from diabetes, flue & pneumonia, liver or kidney failure or suicide.
If we so fear death we may as well stay locked up in our homes until we end up dying anyway.
We really need to get back to reality. Heart patients are suppose to change diet & exercise habits,
With Covid-19 we are suppose to use common sense to avoid getting it or passing it on.
There will always be idiots who do NOT use common sense, fortunately, they're not the majority.

As previously pointed out, the FLAW in that logic is that for every single thing you listed there is a form of treatment or vaccine. I.e. a good intervention. Heart disease is a byproduct of the US being a fat ass nation. It's a choice of lifestyle.

There is NO INTERVENTION for SARS-CoV-2 except social distancing, masks, and hand washing. For the sickest patients there is an antiviral, but that only has moderate efficacy.

Once again, those promoting this analogy really haven't thought it through very well.

 

[Norbert]

Taiwan is Japan + early border controls + aggressive TTQ.

As far as your superficial look at mortality stats goes, you have to correct for differences in age demographics. The important lesson we should take from Japan is that Covid-19 severe morbidity and death is not (as the trumpers say) a trade-off between massive death and police state. 95 - 98% of the human toll can be avoided by smart behavior.

Bar none, the best treatment is to not get infected in the first place; and SMART behavior is extra-ordinarily effective in not getting infected.

I appreciate basic science as much as the next lab rat but I really would like to not dilute the message.

South Korea, with TTQ, also did 1.4x better than Japan (5/million vs 7/million), and is proud of their TTQ.

While your emphasis on "smart" behavior is certainly valid, and you are free not to dilute your own personal message, your dismissive remarks about TTQ (and perhaps other measures) are not valid.

 

[Norbert]

Fair enough but maybe I'm just a hopeless Optimist and I believe that the American brain can handle two thoughts at once. On second thought forget about that idea.

The only way to get R0 down is a combination of as many measures as possible. T brain currently doesn't handle anything at all, but that can't stop any of the ongoing efforts.

 

[SVMike]

It was this guy with the flue comment - his spelling aint much better than his common cents (sic). It's a mystery as to why Moron Spray is not sold out everywhere.

View attachment 545665

Moron Spray isn't sold out because they were looking for Moran spray