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Some datapoints based on German hospitalization data:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30316-7/fulltext

"Methods
In this observational study, adult patients with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, who were admitted to hospital in Germany between Feb 26 and April 19, 2020, and for whom a complete hospital course was available (ie, the patient was discharged or died in hospital) were included in the study cohort. Claims data from the German Local Health Care Funds were analysed. The data set included detailed information on patient characteristics, duration of hospital stay, type and duration of ventilation, and survival status. Patients with adjacent completed hospital stays were grouped into one case. Patients were grouped according to whether or not they had received any form of mechanical ventilation. To account for comorbidities, we used the Charlson comorbidity index.

Findings
Of 10 021 hospitalised patients being treated in 920 different hospitals, 1727 (17%) received mechanical ventilation (of whom 422 [24%] were aged 18–59 years, 382 [22%] were aged 60–69 years, 535 [31%] were aged 70–79 years, and 388 [23%] were aged ≥80 years). The median age was 72 years (IQR 57–82).
Men and women were equally represented in the non-ventilated group, whereas twice as many men than women were in the ventilated group. The likelihood of being ventilated was 12% for women (580 of 4822) and 22% for men (1147 of 5199).
The most common comorbidities were hypertension (5575 [56%] of 10 021), diabetes (2791 [28%]), cardiac arrhythmia (2699 [27%]), renal failure (2287 [23%]), heart failure (1963 [20%]), and chronic pulmonary disease (1358 [14%]). Dialysis was required in 599 (6%) of all patients and in 469 (27%) of 1727 ventilated patients.
The Charlson comorbidity index was 0 for 3237 (39%) of 8294 patients without ventilation, but only 374 (22%) of 1727 ventilated patients. The mean duration of ventilation was 13·5 days (SD 12·1).
In-hospital mortality was 22% overall (2229 of 10 021), with wide variation between patients without ventilation (1323 [16%] of 8294) and with ventilation (906 [53%] of 1727; 65 [45%] of 145 for non-invasive ventilation only, 70 [50%] of 141 for non-invasive ventilation failure, and 696 [53%] of 1318 for invasive mechanical ventilation).
In-hospital mortality in ventilated patients requiring dialysis was 73% (342 of 469). In-hospital mortality for patients with ventilation by age ranged from 28% (117 of 422) in patients aged 18–59 years to 72% (280 of 388) in patients aged 80 years or older."
-------------------
Somewhat outdated since treatment and survival rate has improved since.
 
Rep. Louie Gohmert aide suggests his staffers have been 'berated' for wearing masks

"Gohmert tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday after repeatedly refusing to wear a mask in Congress..."

"...the congressman "requires full staff to be in the office" despite the coronavirus pandemic "so that 'we could be an example to America on how to open up safely.'"
"The anonymous aide went on to suggest that staffers in Gohmert's office have actually been discouraged from wearing masks, writing, "When probing the office, you might want to ask how often were people berated for wearing masks."

"In his statement, Gohmert also baselessly floated the possibility that he could have contracted the virus from wearing a mask."

"...flood of emails from Republican staffers who say they too are being forced to come to the Hill without a mask now."
----------------

"...we could be an example to America on how to open up safely"

How _not_ to open up safely?

This thing is like the proverbial band-aid.
You either rip it off fast and hard and get on with your live,
or you pull slowly and the pain will go on and on and on and on...oops, a pain flare-up because you pulled that hair out...and on and on...Happy New Year to you all!
 
"The “Black Lives Matter” movement is partnered with the nonprofit group, Thousand Currents. This is important because the Vice Chair of the Thousand Currents nonprofit, is Susan Rosenberg. Susan Rosenberg is a convicted terrorist. In 1985, Rosenberg was convicted for possessing hundreds of pounds of explosives. She and her organizations involved in multiple robberies, police officer assassinations, and bombings. Rosenberg was sentenced to 58 years in prison. She spent 16-years in federal prison before being pardoned by Bill Clinton on his last day in office. Now, Rosenberg is leading the fundraising efforts for Black Lives Matter. ..." Posted: July 9, 2020, KUSI Newsroom (KUSI-TV is an independent television station licensed to San Diego, California)
Was this a Fox or Sinclair news station?
 
Rep. Louie Gohmert aide suggests his staffers have been 'berated' for wearing masks

"Gohmert tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday after repeatedly refusing to wear a mask in Congress..."

"...the congressman "requires full staff to be in the office" despite the coronavirus pandemic "so that 'we could be an example to America on how to open up safely.'"
"The anonymous aide went on to suggest that staffers in Gohmert's office have actually been discouraged from wearing masks, writing, "When probing the office, you might want to ask how often were people berated for wearing masks."

"In his statement, Gohmert also baselessly floated the possibility that he could have contracted the virus from wearing a mask."

"...flood of emails from Republican staffers who say they too are being forced to come to the Hill without a mask now."
----------------

"...we could be an example to America on how to open up safely"

How _not_ to open up safely?

This thing is like the proverbial band-aid.
You either rip it off fast and hard and get on with your live,
or you pull slowly and the pain will go on and on and on and on...oops, a pain flare-up because you pulled that hair out...and on and on...Happy New Year to you all!
Not only that, but my Congressperson Susan Wild says Gohmert sleeps in his office. That's disgusting and puts his staff at even more risk.
 
Cases in red states miraculously stop increasing and start decreasing the day case reports stopped going to the CDC.


That sharp elbow almost a 60 degree turn is physically and perhaps even biologically impossible. Infection rates have to moderate, transmission reduces slowly and R subscript comes down, but even if it does you simply don't see that kind of righthand turn unless it's a reporting artifact. In this case we really do have to assume it's simply cooking the books, in other words an intentional reporting artifact. What else is new. The more we see of Trump the more it's clear there is no limit on what lies he will tell in order to maintain power
 
On the topic of delays in death reporting, a nice little tracker:

mbevand/florida-covid19-deaths-by-day

The initial slope of the lines (if you take into account weekends) give you an idea of when the deaths have peaked. They probably haven't yet (though honestly a little hard to tell without modifying the plot axes to zoom in on the initial region).

Looks like we'll be rocking about 180-200 deaths a day (by day of report) for a little while yet. Note that due to the death impulse response long tail, there's generally a slow settling response for deaths per day even if daily cases plateau (i.e., a step function input will lead to a delayed ramp in deaths, followed by slow settling). It's like a pole-zero doublet of death.

EeH9k2tUYAAQsc7.png
 
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https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014?query=TOC

More fuel for the fire. For those here hoping (@Papafox) this would be effective in more moderate cases, it is not looking promising.

"Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care."
 
A note on Worldometers today:

"57,581 new cases and 1,197 new deaths in the United States

NOTE: Texas: there has currently been a steep discrepancy in the total number of deaths reported by state and county official sources since July 27, when the Texas Department of State Health Services started counting deaths marked on death certificates as caused by COVID-19, whereas previously the state relied on local and regional public health departments to verify and report deaths.
The city of Houston (representing the most notable example of such discrepancies, with Harris County reporting 685 total deaths while the state's dashboard reports 1,182 deaths) says it plans to switch to the state’s method of reporting deaths in the next few days, according to reports citing Dr. David Persse, Houston Health Authority.
Counties affected are, among others: Harris, Bexar, Cameron, Galveston, Fort Bend, and Denton. Worldometer is monitoring the situation closely and trying to reconcile the conflicting reporting as best as possible pending a timely reconciliation between the two sources"
 
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014?query=TOC

More fuel for the fire. For those here hoping (@Papafox) this would be effective in more moderate cases, it is not looking promising.

"Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care."

I seldom visit this thread anymore, but since I was alerted to this post by name, let me respond. The study above uses the wrong dose for HCQ, 400mg instead of the safer 200mg used in the successful HCQ studies. Further, the study leaves out an essential ingredient in the treatment, which is zinc. The whole purpose of the HCQ was to give zinc access to the cells. This is a study that was designed to produce a failure. I'm not surprised by the findings.
 
California, at 40M population is 11.9% of the US population and accounts for ~ 12.7% of the cases today
Florida, at 21.5M population, is 6.5% of the US population and accounts for ~ 14.25% of the cases today
Arizona, at 7.28M population is 2.2% of the US population and accounts for ~ 5.2% of the cases
... ...
You should calculate the other leading red states before you draw conclusions. You will find that the red states are ~ 2.5x worse than California.

Great reality check. Thanks for running the numbers....
 
I seldom visit this thread anymore, but since I was alerted to this post by name, let me respond. The study above uses the wrong dose for HCQ, 400mg instead of the safer 200mg used in the successful HCQ studies. Further, the study leaves out an essential ingredient in the treatment, which is zinc. The whole purpose of the HCQ was to give zinc access to the cells. This is a study that was designed to produce a failure. I'm not surprised by the findings.
This was waiting for a peer review, How long does the review take? Zinc-hydroxychloroquine Found Effective In Some COVID-19 Patients: Study
 
And only one county in Washington state below 80%. Lewis County, I'm not surprised. Lewis and Cowlitz counties (just south of Lewis) are very different from most of the rest of the I-5 corridor. My SO was doing some legal work in Cowlitz county some years ago. A Hispanic attorney she knew was defending a Hispanic client and the attorney asked the jury pool how many would be prone to judge his client guilty because he's Hispanic. About half raised their hands. Then he asked how likely it was they would judge his client guilty because his attorney was Hispanic, about 80% raised their hands.

I would say the 90% mask usage around here is pretty accurate. I saw one guy in a store who was holding his mask standing behind us in a pharmacy line. But when I noticed him (didn't even glare), he quickly put his mask back on.
 
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Reactions: NikolaACDC
I seldom visit this thread anymore, but since I was alerted to this post by name, let me respond. The study above uses the wrong dose for HCQ, 400mg instead of the safer 200mg used in the successful HCQ studies. Further, the study leaves out an essential ingredient in the treatment, which is zinc. The whole purpose of the HCQ was to give zinc access to the cells. This is a study that was designed to produce a failure. I'm not surprised by the findings.

Papafox nailed the main points, 2X the dosage of the Henry Ford HS 2,500 patient peer reviewed study (and 2X dosage of Zelenko’s claimed results with 141 patients in pre-print as well), and no inclusion of zinc.

What’s more, this new study not showing improved outcomes was in hospitalized patients, like the HF study, but unlike that successful HF study there is no indication of any effort to begin HCQ+ within the first 48 hours of hospitalization.

I wouldn’t say I’m certain, but it sure looks like this comes down to, with the correct RX, with the inclusion of zinc, and in the initial stage of the disease, this is a very powerful tool. incorrect RX, exclusion of zinc, and in more advanced stage of covid, not of help.

fwiw, I did not vote for Trump in ‘16 & will not now. I just look at this a drug to follow the science on rather than “Trump’s drug.”