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Canada has a large land border with a country that has a relatively poorly educated population and a lot of difficulty implementing the sort of controls necessary.The US has a large land border with a country that has a relatively poorly educated population and a lot of difficulty implementing the sort of controls necessary.
Good management can keep numbers down compared to other places with land borders, but being a literal island helps a lot more.
I did some digging. The latest data on new cases:
Oregon: 560/million per week
Germany: 891/million per week
New Zealand: 10.58/million per week
[...]
Canada has a large land border with a country that has a relatively poorly educated population and a lot of difficulty implementing the sort of controls necessary.
tl dr
those with a recent documented corona common cold, are also more likely to get documented for catching covid-19 (perhaps they are people who catch the cold easily) but, the severity of their outcomes are much gentler than those without a recent documented corona common cold. about an order of magnitude lower odds for intensive care unit (ICU) admission
Wait, so does that mean we should all be infecting ourselves with a mild coronavirus to protect us from the nasty one?
Maybe we aren't "looking for the cure for the common cold", but rather 'the cold is the cure for the common covid-19?"
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.341479v1.full.pdf
another avenue regarding differing immune response, Abnormal antibodies to self-carbohydrates in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients
''. Since the surface of the virus is heavily glycosylated,49-51 responses to glycans could be triggered, contributing to many aspects of the illness.''
Interesting, thanks. I don’t mean this as a joke, but what about bats or pangolins? There are many other animals that have the potential to contribute to zoonotic spread.Molecular mimicry between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and mammalian proteomes: implications for the vaccine
View attachment 601148
so, this coronavirus seems more likely to not be zoonotic, than to be zoonotic. In particular this is relevant for validity of vacinne trials in animals. It seems particularly not relevant to use monkeys as a proxy for humans in regards to safety.
- A massive heptapeptide sharing exists between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and human proteins. Such a peptide commonality is unexpected and highly improbable from a mathematical point of view, given that, as detailed under the “Methods” section, the probability of the occurrence in two proteins of just one heptapeptide is equal to ~ 20−7 (or 1 out of 1,280,000,000). Likewise, the probability of the occurrence in two proteins of just one hexapeptide is close to zero by being equal to ~ 20−6 (or 1 out of 64,000,000).
- Only the viral peptide sharing with the murine proteome and, at a lesser extent, with the rat proteome keeps up with that shown by human proteins;
- Domestic animals, rabbit, and the three primates analyzed here have no or only a few peptide commonalities;
- Likewise, the proteomes of the three human coronaviruses HKU1, 229E, and OC43, which were used as viral controls, have no or only a few peptides in common with the spike glycoprotein. In this regard, it seems that the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein is phenetically more similar to humans and mice than to its coronavirus “cousins”.
Looking at the data, a critical piece of missing information is the positivity rate.Very likely to be a much younger age distribution right now for the infections, so that means IFR will likely be much lower for the current set of infections. This is likely the dominant driver of lower IFR, not treatment, viral inoculate, or anything else. Though some of those factors probably help too. Regardless, hospitalizations are rising, so deaths will rise further as well.
a critical piece of missing information is the positivity rate.
Almost certainly back in March/April we were missing a huge number of cases. Based on the death rate and hospitalization rate, I suspect the infection rate was easily in the 100,000-150,000 daily cases rate back in March/April
I mean, comparing the March/April spike to the August spike in hospitalizations, it simply does not make sense that less than half the cases led to the same number of people in the hospital.
we will exceed the August surge.
It is interesting that the even though the hospitalization and daily case rate was cut in half from August to recently, the death rate did not also get cut in half as one might expect, but instead was only reduced by maybe 35-40% eyeballing the charts.
As I said, Germany had (and still has) another outbreak it didn't contain. However for about two months, it was down to
about 42 / million per week.
So 10 times better than Oregon currently according to your numbers, even if 4 times worse than NZ. Oregon, in turn, is a few times better than US average, how many times depends on the exact numbers you compare.
And I see no reason to think Germany can't get that back.
Good point. Canada was down to about 65/million per week, for some time.
Maybe the herd immunity strategy was not so intelligent:
Cognitive deficits in people who have recovered from COVID-19 relative to controls: An N=84,285 online study
https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1318967587796099074/photo/1
Huge UK Study: Cognitive deficits in recovered COVID patients are significant—even for mild cases & increase w/disease severity. Cognitive tests administered weren't IQ tests but the deficit that was observed in severe disease group would equate to 8.5-point drop on IQ test
Possible revered causality: Maybe the group who dropped in IQ, ie people with dementia, got more severe disease than people who didn’t drop in IQ, ie young people.