Coronavirus

[wdolson]

I guess that belief will go on for decades. There are people 50 years later thinking the moon landing never occurred.

A lot of people these days are denying provable reality. The flat Earth theory has made a come back too.

It's a sad blowback of theinternet

 

[madodel]

This isn't just plain denial anymore. The US appears to be developing a much more serious problem dealing with reality.

My wife came home today and said that her hospital is getting COVID numbers close to where they were back in April. She said there are units with quite a few patients face down on vents. And it isn't even Thanksgiving yet. Going to be a long winter here in Pennsylvania. These deniers don't get to see what is really going on until they're the ones face down on a vent.

 

[EVNow]

Oh, absolutely. They're extremely useful. They're just not quite good enough for me to say that we should test everybody and then send them back to class. We really need to close schools that are still open and then beat the numbers down a LOT before reopening. Otherwise, schools are a perfect vector for spreading it to the rest of the population

Rapid tests are for those who have to work (mostly service industries). Ask them to test at home everyday before heading to work.

 

[wdolson]

My wife came home today and said that her hospital is getting COVID numbers close to where they were back in April. She said there are units with quite a few patients face down on vents. And it isn't even Thanksgiving yet. Going to be a long winter here in Pennsylvania. These deniers don't get to see what is really going on until they're the ones face down on a vent.

I wonder if any hospitals will collapse over this. Between patient load, healthcare workers that are already running on fumes, and growing shortages of supplies some hospitals are going to be pushed to their limits.

 

[Norbert]

Keeping track: 7-day average of US new cases, compared to Sept 27th:

Oct 11th: + 20%
Oct 15th: + 30%
Oct 20th: + 46%
Oct 24th: + 62%
Oct 26th: + 70%
Oct 28th: + 81%
Nov 2nd: + 107%
Nov 5th: + 131%
Nov 7th: + 156%
Nov 12th: + 224% (today). This is 3.24x the Sept 27th value. (Testing has increased less than 50% approx)

Since this value is now so large that it is out of any context, the values are not very informative anymore.
The death rate, after some delay, is now following the rise, so I will start keeping track of it instead.

The 7 day average of daily deaths, compared to Oct 11th: (1 month ago)
Nov 12th: + 49%

Alan hasn't posted from @covid19tracking for a while. The 7-day average for "Currently Hospitalized" is now above 60,000, higher than at any time this year before, even higher than the initial peak April/May.

The 7 day average of daily deaths, compared to Oct 11th: (1 month ago)
Nov 12th: + 49%
Nov 18th: + 74% (today)

The 7 day average Deaths/Day crossed 1,200 (1,265) today and is now higher than at the second peak in July/August.
The last time it was that high was May 22.

The number currently hospitalized is almost 80,000, more than 30% higher than both of the previous peaks earlier this year.

The US has 3-4 times more new cases per day than the next country, India. Yet India's population is about 4 times as large.

 

[EVCollies]

My wife came home today and said that her hospital is getting COVID numbers close to where they were back in April. She said there are units with quite a few patients face down on vents. And it isn't even Thanksgiving yet. Going to be a long winter here in Pennsylvania. These deniers don't get to see what is really going on until they're the ones face down on a vent.

Our system has surpassed COVID numbers seen in May by 50%, ICUs full even with 2 patients per room. Yesterday we were all asked where we would like to be redeployed. Could be a long winter in Colorado as well...

 

[alloverx]

Not sure if the Denmark mask study has been published here or not.

I found it on Seattle Times website but link above is for New York Times.

Summary
Researchers in Denmark reported on Wednesday that surgical masks did not protect the wearers against infection with the coronavirus in a large randomized clinical trial. But the findings conflict with those from a number of other studies, experts said.

 

[madodel]

I wonder if any hospitals will collapse over this. Between patient load, healthcare workers that are already running on fumes, and growing shortages of supplies some hospitals are going to be pushed to their limits.

All hospitals should have prepared for this by now. They've had months of warning of what is to come. I've been told (not by my wife who wouldn't know this) that after the horror of last April and May, our local hospital has purchased a large stockpile of supplies and is even more importantly made plans to try to continue at least some elective services while dealing with COVID patients. Hopefully their plans work. They were pretty close to major financial problems after 2 months of nothing but COVID in the spring. Hopefully the nursing staff holds together like they did the first go round. If there is no or minimal staff then all the hospital beds in the world aren't going to keep these people alive. The question is will rural hospitals especially in states which deny reality as a matter of course be able to survive the onslaught?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Not sure if the Denmark mask study has been published here or not.

I found it on Seattle Times website but link above is for New York Times.

Summary
Researchers in Denmark reported on Wednesday that surgical masks did not protect the wearers against infection with the coronavirus in a large randomized clinical trial. But the findings conflict with those from a number of other studies, experts said.

It did make a statistically insignificant difference, 1.8% in masked group vs. 2.1% unmasked. Half of the mask group say they didn't use the masks as recommended and I have no idea how honest Danes are.

Based on the lowest adherence reported in the mask group during follow-up, 46% of participants wore the mask as recommended, 47% predominantly as recommended, and 7% not as recommended.

Obviously recommending masks only works if people actually use them. It would be interesting to have another group with better masks (N95, KN94, KF94, etc. or my favorite, P100 ).

 

[Jeff N]

So, at first glance, we should not expect the first rush vaccines to significantly protect against transmission (if it does, that's a bonus).

But the next generation should provide transmission protection.

I’m guessing the first-gen vaccines will be good at keeping viral loads low enough to prevent effective infectiousness for at least 6 months after vaccination in most people.

Meanwhile, this new study is good news for immunity following natural infections:

“Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response, researchers reported.”

Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint

 

[Doggydogworld]

Not sure if the Denmark mask study has been published here or not.

I found it on Seattle Times website but link above is for New York Times.

Summary
Researchers in Denmark reported on Wednesday that surgical masks did not protect the wearers against infection with the coronavirus in a large randomized clinical trial. But the findings conflict with those from a number of other studies, experts said.

I've seen similar studies. I don't think cloth or surgical masks do much to protect the wearer. They're good public health policy because an infected person wearing a mask is less likely to spread it to others.

Yesterday we were all asked where we would like to be redeployed.

New Zealand?

 

[cwerdna]

This isn't just plain denial anymore. The US appears to be developing a much more serious problem dealing with reality.

Developing? It's been going on at a seemingly rapid pace in the last four years, with a certain set of millions of people, unfortunately.

For those folks, reality and the facts just don't matter, for some reason.

 

[renim]

I’m guessing the first-gen vaccines will be good at keeping viral loads low enough to prevent effective infectiousness for at least 6 months after vaccination in most people....

Generally sars-coronavirus-19 doesn't kill people, it's their own immune response after the infection is basically defeated that kills people. The contagious stage is generally sickness free/mild.

(Generally is not Always,. Timing is everything with this disease). Point is people seem to become infectious real early, not all immune responses work against infections before they pass from 'outside' membrane to internal blood.

 

[wdolson]

Developing? It's been going on at a seemingly rapid pace in the last four years, with a certain set of millions of people, unfortunately.

For those folks, reality and the facts just don't matter, for some reason.

Distortion of reality has been a problem for the last 20-30 years. In the US it's been the worst, but it's happening all over the world. It's been increasing throughout that time, got crazy about 4-5 years ago and went insane since COVID started. Not only is COVID denial a problem, but some people are convinced that 5 G phone networks created the COVID pandemic.

As Neal DeGrasse Tyson has said, "you can have your own opinion, but you can't have your own facts." (Or something close to that.) Unfortunately some people are trying very hard to have their own facts.

Generally sars-coronavirus-19 doesn't kill people, it's their own immune response after the infection is basically defeated that kills people. The contagious stage is generally sickness free/mild.

(Generally is not Always,. Timing is everything with this disease). Point is people seem to become infectious real early, not all immune responses work against infections before they pass from 'outside' membrane to internal blood.

The flu doesn't generally kill people either, it weakens their system so other bugs can get a foothold.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Surpassed 2k dead today.

Might be above 200k new cases tomorrow.

But it's good to know that the gubmint is prepared once the wave hits.
White House says U.S. is prepared for surge as CDC warns of accelerating Covid deaths

 

[madodel]

Surpassed 2k dead today.

View attachment 610112

Might be above 200k new cases tomorrow.

But it's good to know that the gubmint is prepared once the wave hits.
White House says U.S. is prepared for surge as CDC warns of accelerating Covid deaths

Perhaps that means they have stockpiled refrigerated trailers. Certainly not masks gloves, gowns or medical professionals.

 

[wdolson]

Considering how many people are going to see family at Thanksgiving, the spiral will be even worse in about 3 weeks.

Expect an insane spike in new cases about December 10, then that spike will translate into hospitalizations by Christmas, and the death toll from Thanksgiving will hit around Inauguration Day.

Some years we have gone to a Thanksgiving buffet at a local place called the Edgefield. Unbelievably they are doing it this year. I'm not sure how with Oregon's gathering restrictions.

It wasn't even a consideration for us. Thanksgiving at home this year with possibly a Zoom call with my sister and Facetime with friends who have iPhones.

The social restrictions this year have not been so bad for us and for our more introverted friends. It's a convenient excuse to not socialize when we don't want to. The extroverts we know have been climbing the walls though.

 

[Fred42]

Considering how many people are going to see family at Thanksgiving, the spiral will be even worse in about 3 weeks.

Expect an insane spike in new cases about December 10, then that spike will translate into hospitalizations by Christmas, and the death toll from Thanksgiving will hit around Inauguration Day.

Some years we have gone to a Thanksgiving buffet at a local place called the Edgefield. Unbelievably they are doing it this year. I'm not sure how with Oregon's gathering restrictions.

It wasn't even a consideration for us. Thanksgiving at home this year with possibly a Zoom call with my sister and Facetime with friends who have iPhones.

The social restrictions this year have not been so bad for us and for our more introverted friends. It's a convenient excuse to not socialize when we don't want to. The extroverts we know have been climbing the walls though.

No Thanksgiving for us, and we're rescheduling Christmas for June. But we'll reconsider this later because there might not be enough doses by then, and the winter surge might be so great that, even with a good drop-off in warm weather, contact might still be dangerous.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Rapid tests are for those who have to work (mostly service industries). Ask them to test at home everyday before heading to work.

If they existed, they would be good for that. Unfortunately the FDA requires they be approved for medical use, rather than for public health use, and that makes it basically impossible to get them approved in a timely fashion. (Dr. Mina has more explanation on this.)

As it is, they don't really exist in this country. We should be doing 50 million rapid tests a day. It would be no problem if we wanted to do it.

No Thanksgiving for us, and we're rescheduling Christmas for June.

The government should have rescheduled these holidays months ago. I guess the turkey manufacturers would have been angry, but I'm sure they could have used the DPA to make some freezers, or maybe we could have just had extra big & juicy turkeys in May.

 

[dgatwood]

I disagree with this. Schools (especially elementary) are the highest priority, and should be the last thing to close. There is some evidence suggesting that with mitigation in place, schools do not drive outbreaks. They don’t seem to result in superspreading events.

I have a hard time believing such claims. Every year at the start of the school year, within the first two or three weeks, the entire student body brings home whatever bug one kid came back from summer with, and those kids spread it to their families. There's simply no realistic chance that COVID-19 won't behave in the same way; it's pure fantasy.

The problem is, the folks trying to determine how much schools affect things aren't actually measuring what they think they're measuring. A large percentage of young kids show zero symptoms whatsoever, but still continue to spread the virus. So you can't try to measure illness among the kids themselves and hope to get an accurate assessment of their impact on public health, because kids don't get tested unless they feel sick, typically.

Instead, what they need to compare is adults with kids to adults without kids within a given area, and do so in areas that did and did not reopen schools, and compare the ratios. Unfortunately, I don't think anybody is doing that.

If we have easy, cheap and numerous antigen tests, it would be even easier to keep them open, until the last workable moment. I suspect daily "instant" antigen tests for every student & staff member in elementary school would work pretty well, as long as they maintain all the other layers.

Except that AFAIK, unless you happen to work for the White House, you can't actually get antigen tests to use on people who aren't showing symptoms.