I saw that on ABC. That is so sad. There are still a lot of people who say it's a hoax <edit add> or are just afraid to take the vaccine because it isn't tested</edit>. My wife won't even talk about it any more.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
With 20% of Americans thinking that nanobots are being injected, it's not much of a surprise. The education and critical thinking levels in this country are appalling.
My father was born just after (in 1920). He said his grandfather died from the flu pandemic in 1919. The family was twitchy about disease when he was a kid. He had an incredible immune system though. He never got any of the childhood diseases.
In WW II he was in a special photographic unit that was attached to various bomber units in the Pacific. When they got back to the states in the spring of 1945 the other half of his unit was slated to go to the Aleutians. The day before they were supposed to ship out an officer in that part of the unit got an appendicitis and couldn't go. They needed a replacement and went through all those just back from the Pacific. Only two were not sick with tropical diseases and one was married. My father got tagged to go because he was single and healthy.
He got promoted from a corporal to a 2nd lieutenant, but it was little consolation.
My partner was saying last night she smells a wrongful death lawsuit against the conservative news sources that have been spreading misinformation about COVID. It could turn into a class action lawsuit that could bankrupt or badly hurt those companies. The fact that Newscorp took it serious enough to mandate everyone get vaccinated but allowed anti-vaxer conspiracy theories to be peddled as news is very damning.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
My "back-of-the-envelope" estimates for a typical vaccinated person (obviously it depends on age and many other factors), vaccinated with Pfizer against coronavirus (Delta or otherwise) for a typical (not concentrated) exposure are:
1 in 5 chance of getting infected so that a positive test would result.
1 in 8 chance of feeling kind of crappy (symptomatic).
1 in 50 chance of feeling really seriously ill. Perhaps hospitalized 1 in 100 (obviously that would be REALLY dependent on age).
Just my estimates that I keep in mind, the only solid number is the second one.
At 1 in 5 I don't like my chances, even though that is an EXCELLENT vaccine that will likely squash the virus at a population level (R0 would have to be greater than 5 in infected vaccinated individuals for that to not be the case), when used properly. So, I wear a mask indoors, even in the rock-climbing gym. Dose matters. A mask will definitely keep the dose down, and may make it so that your immune system just gets exercised a little bit. Don't want too big a challenge!
Free-dumb!
www.businessinsider.com
A man hospitalized with COVID-19 told CBS he'd still rather be sick than get a shot — and it shows how hard it'll be to convince everyone to get vaccinated
"Am I going to get a vaccine? No," Scott Roe told a CBS News reporter from his hospital bed in Baton Rouge.
www.businessinsider.com
My state is reported to have 20% of new cases in the country. So what do we hear from our governor who is more interested in being reelected than saving lives? As Florida cases surge, DeSantis stays the course on Covid
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
And with these numbers, with 70% of the population vaccinated (representing the most heavily vaccinated areas), with 15% of the remaining population with natural immunity, assuming that offers similar protection to the vaccine (we don't really know), you'd expect something like ( 0.7/8 / (0.7/8 + 0.15/8 + 0.15) = 34% of the cases to be vaccinated cases. (This is very approximate and may have some errors in the assumptions but I don't think it is too far off.)
The higher the vaccinated %, and the more the natural immunity, and the more effective the natural immunity, the higher the % of cases will come from vaccinated individuals. (To be clear, people should not try to get natural immunity - vaccination is way better.)
Personally, I think in all but the least vaccinated areas, this wave won't run for more than a few more weeks. It's just going to run out of gas, since it will quickly find all the remaining unvaccinated folks. Hopefully I'm not wrong. Might be, though. Could be, if it's a LOT more contagious than I think.
I guess he's decided that natural immunity is easier than figuring out how to convince people to get vaccinated? Never mind the consequences, I guess.
With Florida's low vaccination levels he might end up seeing some pretty high case counts on his watch. It's a bold strategy, I suppose. He probably knows his constituents, though.
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The above links to COVID patient in Louisiana says he'd opt for hospitalization again over vaccine with a bit more with Mr. Roe, the anti-vaxxer. You can either watch the video or search the text for Roe.Free-dumb!
A man hospitalized with COVID-19 told CBS he'd still rather be sick than get a shot — and it shows how hard it'll be to convince everyone to get vaccinated
"Am I going to get a vaccine? No," Scott Roe told a CBS News reporter from his hospital bed in Baton Rouge.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Those are some pretty crazy forecasts. So something like a 13k - 115k 7-day average by August 14th. With some substantial outliers on the high side! (There are ensemble members predicting 200k per day average by mid-August...I think they must have questionable assumptions...)
I like the look of the middle trajectory which peaks in mid August with an average of 50k/day. I think we'll do that, except with a peak scaled up to around 80k per day average in middle of August. No idea though!
At that point we'll be infecting or vaccinating 1.2% of the population per week 7*(4*80k+250k), so how long will that be able to continue...
Well at least I will get to see my daughter in Germany next week. Only going myself. We are supposed to meet her in Italy end of August but looks like Americans will be banned from the rest of the world yet again. One giant COVID cesspool. Freedumb.
Today's (7/22) Worldometers count for the USA was 61k. Unless that's just a short spike we will see more than a 50k average by August.
Reading this
UK scientists back Covid boosters as study finds post-jab falls in antibodies
"Prof Matthew Snape, a vaccinologist at Oxford University, said: “Studies such as this do not in themselves provide evidence of waning protection from vaccines but are really important to help us understand what’s going on if population-based studies showed any drop-off in protection with increasing time since immunisation.
“A decline in antibodies in the blood following immunisation is to be expected, and does not necessarily correspond to an increase risk of disease. Protection against infection could well be down to whether or not there are antibodies in the respiratory lining, and protection against progression to severe disease following infection may be provided by T cells.
“However, it’s clear that ongoing protection from vaccines for months to years after immunisation can’t be assumed, hence the importance of ongoing vigilance for any increase in breakthrough infections.”
---------------
I was wondering - does anybody have some insight into if there is a difference between immune responses driven by antibodies or memory (T/B) cells?
Would a body with a high antibody count mount a faster and/or stronger immune response than a body that relies on memory (B/T) cells because after a long time antibody count is low?
If so there would be a case for booster shots while the 'rona is rampant.
UK scientists back Covid boosters as study finds post-jab falls in antibodies
"Prof Matthew Snape, a vaccinologist at Oxford University, said: “Studies such as this do not in themselves provide evidence of waning protection from vaccines but are really important to help us understand what’s going on if population-based studies showed any drop-off in protection with increasing time since immunisation.
“A decline in antibodies in the blood following immunisation is to be expected, and does not necessarily correspond to an increase risk of disease. Protection against infection could well be down to whether or not there are antibodies in the respiratory lining, and protection against progression to severe disease following infection may be provided by T cells.
“However, it’s clear that ongoing protection from vaccines for months to years after immunisation can’t be assumed, hence the importance of ongoing vigilance for any increase in breakthrough infections.”
---------------
I was wondering - does anybody have some insight into if there is a difference between immune responses driven by antibodies or memory (T/B) cells?
Would a body with a high antibody count mount a faster and/or stronger immune response than a body that relies on memory (B/T) cells because after a long time antibody count is low?
If so there would be a case for booster shots while the 'rona is rampant.
Update on our breakthrough case, if anyone's interested. Eight days in and my wife's doing fine but there are two lingering issues: fatigue and lost sense of taste/smell. She takes a nap every day, which is unusual for her. The main thing that's driving her batty is the total loss of taste. I've tried all sorts of things: kosher pickles (which she hates), shrimp with spicy cocktail sauce, straight bourbon (which she also hates), spicy wings, etc. She can't smell or taste any of it. It's crazy. I know that this bug is interfering with her sense of smell due to congestion but you'd think that some of the more intense flavors would get through. Nope! I don't understand it.
She's released from quarantine on Saturday and is chomping at the bit to go out and do stuff. I've thought about going to one of our favorite restaurants ... but then think, what's the point, she won't be able to taste any of it.
Anyway, in summary, three people were initially exposed and one (my wife) got sick. One person (me) was massively exposed and three others were exposed in the workplace for one day. All seven involved were vaccinated and three of them had cv19 last year. Only one sickness.
She's released from quarantine on Saturday and is chomping at the bit to go out and do stuff. I've thought about going to one of our favorite restaurants ... but then think, what's the point, she won't be able to taste any of it.
Anyway, in summary, three people were initially exposed and one (my wife) got sick. One person (me) was massively exposed and three others were exposed in the workplace for one day. All seven involved were vaccinated and three of them had cv19 last year. Only one sickness.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
"New feature: Interactive county vaccination coverage by case rate map. A way to identify areas that are more likely to have ongoing disease transmission. Teal/aqua is preferable to red here." -- Cyrus Shahpar COVID-19 Data Director, emergency physician, epidemiologist, ...
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov
Update on our breakthrough case, if anyone's interested. Eight days in and my wife's doing fine but there are two lingering issues: fatigue and lost sense of taste/smell. She takes a nap every day, which is unusual for her. The main thing that's driving her batty is the total loss of taste. I've tried all sorts of things: kosher pickles (which she hates), shrimp with spicy cocktail sauce, straight bourbon (which she also hates), spicy wings, etc. She can't smell or taste any of it. It's crazy. I know that this bug is interfering with her sense of smell due to congestion but you'd think that some of the more intense flavors would get through. Nope! I don't understand it.
She's released from quarantine on Saturday and is chomping at the bit to go out and do stuff. I've thought about going to one of our favorite restaurants ... but then think, what's the point, she won't be able to taste any of it.
Anyway, in summary, three people were initially exposed and one (my wife) got sick. One person (me) was massively exposed and three others were exposed in the workplace for one day. All seven involved were vaccinated and three of them had cv19 last year. Only one sickness.
Odd she's congested. At least the original COVID didn't tend to impact the nose other than the sense of smell. I lost my sense of smell with no congestion at all.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yep. That’s why I said 80k (7-day average) as a peak with similar timing seemed like it might be closer. We’ll see! Definitely would pick the over on that number if I had to choose.
Was freaking out today because the CDC data (nytimes, this plot I think, etc.) showed such a low vaccination rate for San Diego county (43%). But it is actually 59%. I do not know what is the discrepancy - maybe border-crossing ex-pats are counted in our numbers, but I do not think so? Nearly 2 million fully vaccinated with a population of 3.35 million. Anyway if isn’t even close and I don’t know why.
Why is Texas all gray?"New feature: Interactive county vaccination coverage by case rate map. A way to identify areas that are more likely to have ongoing disease transmission. Teal/aqua is preferable to red here." -- Cyrus Shahpar COVID-19 Data Director, emergency physician, epidemiologist, ...
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.covid.cdc.gov
I hesitated on writing "congestion" because her nose isn't clogged up or runny. She describes it as "pressure" behind her eyes. She had terrible headaches for a couple of days. I assume this is due to some sort of inflammation and/or coating.
How do you lose your sense of smell and/or taste???
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