Coronavirus

[madodel]

I hesitated on writing "congestion" because her nose isn't clogged up or runny. She describes it as "pressure" behind her eyes. She had terrible headaches for a couple of days. I assume this is due to some sort of inflammation and/or coating.

How do you lose your sense of smell and/or taste???

A year old Harvard study says it's damage to olfactory support cells from COVID-19.
How COVID-19 Causes Loss of Smell Olfactory support cells, not neurons, are vulnerable to novel coronavirus infection

Though it seems that most do get those senses back, at least according to this post-1 year study. So the damage must be reversible.
Clinical Outcomes for Patients With Anosmia 1 Year After COVID-19 Diagnosis

 

[eevee-fan]

Why is Texas all gray?

State refuse to release data or maybe we sold TX to Mexico.

 

[eevee-fan]

Alabama GOP governor says 'start blaming the unvaccinated folks' for rise in Covid cases

Alabama Republican Gov. Kay Ivey on Thursday called out "the unvaccinated folks" for the rise in Covid-19 cases in her state, a remarkable plea at a time when many GOP leaders are refusing to urge people to get vaccinated even as Covid-19 cases surge in many parts of the country.

www.cnn.com

I guess the right wing finally realized they are losing voters by being obstructionists to getting the virus under control.
:0

 

[scottf200]

Why is Texas all gray?

From that site (link above):
" Counties with no vaccination data available are displayed as "no data" and shaded in white with diagonal stripes in the maps below."

I'm not sure who the other site that I posted has data for TX:

US Covid-19 Hot Spots Map

asset.wsj.net

 

[TespaceX]

I can't believe the timing of a family matter after posting that Disneyland picture earlier.
So, our family was supposed to get together tomorrow for our mom's birthday. But, we just got a call from my brother that his family won't be stopping by. Apparently, sister-in-law's work had a private dinner event for employees and any SO in a relatively spacious outdoor back patio of a restaurant few days ago. Out of 17 people, all fully vaccinated, two people who were strangers just got confirmation of positive test today. Some had masks and some did not. These two did not wear masks. No confirmation on their symptoms (or lack thereof). But, I would assume they are symptomatic because why would they seek a test otherwise? My brother and wife don't have any symptoms but they say they will get tested out of abundance of caution.
Obviously, it's not 100% verified (as of now) that the transmission between these two individuals happened at this event. They could have gotten it individually from somewhere else. But the chance seems pretty good.

Maybe not remarkably convincing as it's a small number, but goes to show that a mask can be useful even among fully vaccinated.

Forgot to provide an update on what happened.

My brother and his wife both tested negative.
Sister-in-law does not know the status of everyone else who was there. But, she is aware that one other person tested positive and seven others were negative. So, for sure, nine (including themselves) tested negative and three tested positive, leaving five unknown.

Her department has been all remote and this was the first time they gathered together in a very long while. So, she does not know any further on the five unknowns as not everyone shared their test status (or whether they even got tested), and it’s not like someone is absent from work. Possible that either these remaining others are asymptomatic or negative since she says they still are actively working remotely.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

How do you lose your sense of smell and/or taste???

How COVID-19 Causes Loss of Smell

Olfactory support cells, not neurons, are vulnerable to novel coronavirus infection

hms.harvard.edu

I think the understanding is probably not complete though. I'd guess it's not even clear whether in all cases the neuronal cells are not impacted. I know a couple people I've talked to who had COVID who still have no smell/taste after several months.

It's threads like this that are a little concerning:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416560771656560645

My comments:
1) It's possible this was a vaccinated adult -> unvaccinated child -> vaccinated adult transmission.

2) The vaccinated index case had been hanging out in multiple locations in the prior week inside with individuals with unknown vaccination status, all unmasked.

3) Dose probably matters.

4) Maybe one or more of the people involved were super spreaders with very high viral loads (bad luck).

I would say...try to avoid the point #2? And masks probably reduce dose and give your immune system a chance to crush the infection. Seems to me it is a good idea to mask indoors even if all adults are vaccinated, if there are any unvaccinated children around, to eliminate that potential (dose-amplifying) transmission path. This wouldn't apply if all the adults are being very careful outside the house though. (E.g. a family is probably fine to remain unmasked with their children, as long as no adult is going outside the home, then not using a mask in indoor locations like shopping/restaurants etc.)

 

[wdolson]

I hesitated on writing "congestion" because her nose isn't clogged up or runny. She describes it as "pressure" behind her eyes. She had terrible headaches for a couple of days. I assume this is due to some sort of inflammation and/or coating.

How do you lose your sense of smell and/or taste???

COVID can attack neurological tissue. People have posted about why people may lose their sense of taste/smell. I think there is a combination of olfactory cells involved and neurons affected. But that's just my speculation. It's probably a somewhat low priority for researchers right now.

I'm no doctor, but I'd be concerned about the pressure behind her eyes and the headache. It might be nothing, but I'd get it checked.

A year old Harvard study says it's damage to olfactory support cells from COVID-19.
How COVID-19 Causes Loss of Smell Olfactory support cells, not neurons, are vulnerable to novel coronavirus infection

Though it seems that most do get those senses back, at least according to this post-1 year study. So the damage must be reversible.
Clinical Outcomes for Patients With Anosmia 1 Year After COVID-19 Diagnosis

My sense of smell has been extremely sharp my entire adult life (I didn't have one as a child because of chronic allergies to smog in Los Angeles). After losing it for a couple of days it came back to what it was before the infection. I still drive my partner crazy smelling things she can't. Her sense of smell is normal to a little below normal.

How COVID-19 Causes Loss of Smell

Olfactory support cells, not neurons, are vulnerable to novel coronavirus infection

hms.harvard.edu

I think the understanding is probably not complete though. I'd guess it's not even clear whether in all cases the neuronal cells are not impacted. I know a couple people I've talked to who had COVID who still have no smell/taste after several months.

It's threads like this that are a little concerning:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416560771656560645

My comments:
1) It's possible this was a vaccinated adult -> unvaccinated child -> vaccinated adult transmission.

2) The vaccinated index case had been hanging out in multiple locations in the prior week inside with individuals with unknown vaccination status, all unmasked.

3) Dose probably matters.

4) Maybe one or more of the people involved were super spreaders with very high viral loads (bad luck).

I would say...try to avoid the point #2? And masks probably reduce dose and give your immune system a chance to crush the infection. Seems to me it is a good idea to mask indoors even if all adults are vaccinated, if there are any unvaccinated children around, to eliminate that potential (dose-amplifying) transmission path. This wouldn't apply if all the adults are being very careful outside the house though. (E.g. a family is probably fine to remain unmasked with their children, as long as no adult is going outside the home, then not using a mask in indoor locations like shopping/restaurants etc.)

I read last year that the level of exposure has a big impact on how big a case people get. This case proves that vaccinated people can transmit COVID. And it supports the case that exposure levels impacts how sick you get. For vaccinated people a heavy exposure may transmit it to other vaccinated adults, but the case will be less severe.

I don't believe all infectious diseases follow this pattern, but I've read small pox did. Before cow pox was found to be a safer vaccine a technique of inoculation against small pox (which came from the Ottoman Empire) was to give someone a small dose from one infected blister. People would get sick with small pox, but the death rate and serious case rate was much lower.

I would surmise that pubic places like stores are probably safe for vaccinated people, especially if masked. The likelihood of high exposure in a store is relatively low because you're not going to be close to anyone for any period of time. But spending any time with someone, especially unmasked, could open people up to getting infected.

The overwhelming majority of people who end up in the hospital are unvaccinated, which makes the case that being vaccinated is definitely a benefit.

The exposure level relating to case severity could explain some small outbreaks that hit everyone hard like the Manatee County, FL IT department case. 7 people who worked closely together exposed, 1 who was vaccinated was fine, the test ended up in the hospital or dead. There was a similar case in Washington state early in the pandemic of a church choir in which a large percentage got seriously ill and a couple died after a choir practice.

 

[Doggydogworld]

20% of June LA County cases were fully vaccinated. That's up from 5% in April and 11% in May. Officials spin this as to be expected as more people get vaccinated, but the LA County Dashboard shows the number of fully vaccinated only grew 30% from mid-April to mid-June (not by 4x). Another data point indicating reduced efficacy against Delta, as Pfizer CEO acknowledged.

20% of cases coming from the 60% of the eligible population who were fully vaccinated by mid-June implies 83% efficacy. A crude adjustment for higher efficacy against non-Delta gives us Delta efficacy just under 80%. There are too many uncontrolled variables between the vax/unvax populations to make this any better than a first order approximation, but note the pre-Delta April results align quite well with the 94-95% efficacy found in the original controlled studies.

If Delta R0 is really in the 5-6 range, we'd need almost 100% vaccination rate at 80% efficacy to achieve herd immunity. States like Vermont at 70%+ vaccination rate are probably safe with limited precautions like indoor masking. States well below 50% with no precautions could see more infections this fall than last winter. Death rates should be a lot lower, since the hospitalization ratios strongly support the theory that vaccinated people are much less likely to get severely ill. And vaccination rates among high risk groups are quite high.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

20% of June LA County cases were fully vaccinated. That's up from 5% in April and 11% in May. Officials spin this as to be expected as more people get vaccinated,

But a LOT more people ARE fully vaccinated now than in April…so it is nearly exactly what you would expect for a working vaccine.

In early March, 1.6mil had received a dose (providing immunity by April), and 4.9mil by May 1st (providing immunity by June). So you’d expect to go from 5%->15% not even accounting for exposure factors (most vulnerable to severe disease, the first vaccinated, would certainly be less likely to be exposed on average, as seen in the per capita case rates by age group).

20% of cases coming from the 60% of the eligible population who were fully vaccinated by mid-June implies 83% efficacy.

Are you accounting for natural immunity in your calculations? It’s probably another 10-15% of the population with some significant immunity…

0.12*0.6/(0.12*0.6+0.15*0.15+0.25) = 21%

I’m sticking with the 85-90% efficacy against Delta (it’s possible this includes the effect of individual behaviors of course!) from PHE until a good quality study suggests otherwise.

This was a good article related to some prior discussion regarding increasing rates of vaccinated cases and other aspects of vaccination. I do not have to register…might have to modify private browsing settings or something:

Why are fully vaccinated people testing positive for Covid?

Despite rising ‘breakthrough infections’ most cases remain mild and are in line with expectations

amp.ft.com

The link in here might work better?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418687703814529027

 

[bkp_duke]

One way or another . . . the unvaccinated population is going to be dropping. . .

 

[JRP3]

One way or another . . . the unvaccinated population is going to be dropping. . .

The concern is how many of the rest of us might they take out along the way?

 

[bkp_duke]

The concern is how many of the rest of us might they take out along the way?

Life's not perfect. We do what we can to protect ourselves.

Your odds of dying in a car crash are higher than dying from COVID-19 (if you've been vaccinated).
Life is just one big pile of statistics.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Life's not perfect. We do what we can to protect ourselves.

Your odds of dying in a car crash are higher than dying from COVID-19 (if you've been vaccinated).
Life is just one big pile of statistics.

On average, odds of dying in car crash are higher, but not for higher risk elderly groups, even with vaccination. Anyway, it's important for individuals to realize at this point that layered protections can be very effective. The vaccine is your backstop - but it does not prevent infection completely. If you want to avoid infection, that risk can be quite well controlled through behaviors, and quality masking.

The issue I'm personally encountering is the semi-mandatory return to work (hybrid 3 days per week). Risk has increased about 20x in San Diego county over the last 3 weeks, yet no one has yet mentioned a return to potential WFH. I may have to start wearing the P100 to work. It's by far my highest risk exposure (over 97% of the office population is vaccinated), followed by rock climbing at the gym once a week (I wear a vented N95 for maximum personal protection and comfort).

Just a matter of time at current trajectory before COVID enters the office. The clock is ticking.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Life's not perfect. We do what we can to protect ourselves.

Your odds of dying in a car crash are higher than dying from COVID-19 (if you've been vaccinated).
Life is just one big pile of statistics.

It’s not the odds I’m worried about, it’s the result.

 

[wdolson]

I ran some numbers on herd immunity with R0 and vaccine effectiveness. With a 90% effective vaccine, herd immunity becomes impossible above R0=10. If R0 is as high as 5 or 6 with delta herd immunity threshold is going to be very high.

 

[uujjj2]

We're not trying to contain this virus anymore. That ship has sailed.

I think at this point the endgame is inevitable. COVID is an endemic disease that will circulate continuously. Vaccination doesn't stop the virus, just downgrades it to a regular cold. Your "booster shot" will be periodic exposure to the virus and its variants.

Once everyone has gotten their initial immunity (via the shot or the virus), I don't think any further mitigation measures will serve any purpose.

 

[uujjj2]

On average, odds of dying in car crash are higher, but not for higher risk elderly groups, even with vaccination. Anyway, it's important for individuals to realize at this point that layered protections can be very effective. The vaccine is your backstop - but it does not prevent infection completely. If you want to avoid infection, that risk can be quite well controlled through behaviors, and quality masking.

The issue I'm personally encountering is the semi-mandatory return to work (hybrid 3 days per week). Risk has increased about 20x in San Diego county over the last 3 weeks, yet no one has yet mentioned a return to potential WFH. I may have to start wearing the P100 to work. It's by far my highest risk exposure (over 97% of the office population is vaccinated), followed by rock climbing at the gym once a week (I wear a vented N95 for maximum personal protection and comfort).

Just a matter of time at current trajectory before COVID enters the office. The clock is ticking.

If you've had the shot (or previously had the virus) it's basically just a cold. Let's face it we're all gonna get periodic exposure to this virus for the rest of our lives. I'm not sure there's anything to be done about it. Forget social distancing. Just get your periodic exposure so you don't lose all immune resistance.

 

[eevee-fan]

 

[eevee-fan]

Forget social distancing. Just get your periodic exposure so you don't lose all immune resistance.

Does this apply to those vaccinated for STDs too? Asking for a friend.

 

[Doggydogworld]

But a LOT more people ARE fully vaccinated now than in April…so it is nearly exactly what you would expect for a working vaccine.

I used vax numbers from middle of each month. There was only a 30% increase from April to June while percentage of fully vaxed cases grew from 5% to 20%.

Are you accounting for natural immunity in your calculations? It’s probably another 10-15% of the population with some significant immunity…

0.12*0.6/(0.12*0.6+0.15*0.15+0.25) = 21%

I just assumed previous infections affect the vaxed and unvaxed in equal proportion. Some I know who had it got the shots once available, some didn't.

Kids are included in the case count ratio but excluded from % vaccinated. Adjusting for this would skew efficacy down a little more.