scottf200
Well-Known Member
That daily looks pretty different than the last 7 days two that I look at.
1) COVID Data Tracker
2) US Covid-19 Hot Spots Map
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
1) COVID Data Tracker
2) US Covid-19 Hot Spots Map
Agree, it is really frustrating to have so many different ways of tracking supposedly the same data, and the most important insights I would like to see are the case breakdown between unvaxed, half-vaxed and fully vaxed. I agree with the WaPo editorial of a few days ago that if this info were published daily, 1) vax-hesitancy would fall over FOMO on living; 2) those of us who are vaxed and want to avoid hot spots based on our risk can stand a chance of reducing our specific risk to new variants. (and my thinking may be wrong, but it seems if a hotspot is only dangerous to people who are unvaccinated, then my risk should be lower; but if case rates among vaccinated people is rising, that may indicate some variant of Delta, or new variant, has greater breakthrough potential)
linux-works
Active Member
they're trying, yet again, to leave the union. grey is the correct color for that, isn't it?
Well…. we have reached an average of over 50,000 U.S. daily new cases in only 2 weeks rather than the 3-4 weeks that I was speculating about back on July 14.
Will we reach 100,000 new cases per day in the next 2 weeks? Or 3-4 weeks? It seems likely now.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
We'll see. Have to be a little careful about Simpson's paradox here. The component pieces of this surge may only have so much potential at this point (though some are reaching close to all-time highs - so maybe there is a lot of potential!!!) . I guess at this point I wouldn't be surprised at all about a 100k 7-day moving average, but I'm still not sure it's certain. I guess I'd definitely still take the over on my 80k prediction by mid-August, though. Haha.
I think it will be interesting to see what happens in LA County over the next week or so, to see whether restrictions have any impact.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Resolution of the weird "40% effective" data on Pfizer vs. Delta that came out of Israel a week ago. Seems that it was likely data taken from a 95% vaccinated population, but they applied the nationwide vaccination rate instead to gauge effectiveness. That would really screw things up! (Doesn't even account for healthcare-seeking behaviors, either.)
So, seems like the efficacy estimate remains 88% for symptomatic infection, until more data is available.
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When I was out running errands yesterday I had NPR on in the car. I didn't hear the entire story, but they interviewed someone who was an expert on COVID testing. She thinks we need to change the PCR test to include the viral load because it's now showing way too many false positives among vaccinated people. She pointed out that the PCR test shows positive even for extremely low viral loads and someone who is fully vaccinated, but tests positive, especially with no symptoms, should not be counted as a breakthrough infection if the viral load is low because the vaccine is doing exactly what it is designed to do. The person has a bit of virus, but the immune system is fully up to the job and they are not going to get sick, and with a low viral load the odds they can pass it on are very low.
It doesn't help things that the media narrative focuses on breakthrough infections rather than the vaccine is holding the line and stopping the vast majority of people who are exposed from getting sick. Among the unvaccinated they see these stories and conclude the vaccine doesn't work.
It doesn't help things that the media narrative focuses on breakthrough infections rather than the vaccine is holding the line and stopping the vast majority of people who are exposed from getting sick. Among the unvaccinated they see these stories and conclude the vaccine doesn't work.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
There is, of course, no such thing as a false positive for PCR tests, for all intents and purposes.
Yes, this was discussed earlier, in the context that it's possible to be positive but not be actually really infected. That's of course possible because it's a really sensitive test, and this would show up in the Ct value, which is correlated roughly with viral load.
The problem is that the PCR test result and the Ct value is just a snapshot in time. It's basically impossible to determine whether you happen to have had a low quality swab, or happened to catch an infection very early in its course, etc. Of course on average you'll end up with higher Ct values for vaccinated individuals - that's fully expected and has already been documented.
Still, positive is positive. There's not really any other way to deal with it right now. You can't have people wandering around who are PCR positive, whether they've been vaccinated or not.
Certainly statistics on Ct values would be nice to have to provide additional granularity & meaning to the rates of positive PCR in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. It actually would have been nice to have had Ct values recorded in the regular course of reporting (rather than limited to special studies) from the very beginning of the pandemic (note that there are different values for different epitopes so it's a bit difficult to interpret). But anyway, any positive test still counts as a breakthrough, regardless. But we can't even get good data on the basic breakthrough rates, so it seems like we should attempt to get that data first.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
scottf200
Well-Known Member
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
“A plateau slightly sloping up.”
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
The hospitalizations in Florida are really pretty shocking. This delta variant really does seem very bad, though I can’t imagine pretending the virus doesn’t exist, refusing vaccines, and prohibiting mitigation measures is helpful either. I wonder when they will stop increasing?
But, it does seem that Florida is finally getting their wave everyone thought was going to come for the last 18 months.
But, it does seem that Florida is finally getting their wave everyone thought was going to come for the last 18 months.
Deaths shouldn't be too bad since probably most everyone over 50 is vaccinated and outside playing golf.
Florida Coronavirus Vaccination Progress
How is Florida progressing in its mission to vaccinate the population? See how many people are fully vaccinated state-wide and parse the numbers by demographics.
usafacts.org
however, masks even when theoretically required are either optional or don’t cover the nose for many including employees of places requiring and it’s “honor system” for wearing masks and vaccinations
I would personally wait a week or 2 and check statistics vis a vis Florida infections and hospitalization and morbidity.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Deaths lag hospitalizations by 10-14 days.
In about 2-3 weeks, we are going to have (sadly) SOLID data about how lethal the delta variant is.
In about 2-3 weeks, we are going to have (sadly) SOLID data about how lethal the delta variant is.
In Florida we are truly boned. Our Governor is much more interested in appealing to Trump voters than in slowing the progression of Covid. He has outlawed any local government requiring masks. Over two months ago they announced all physical schools must open in August. He has outlawed the use of Covid passports. He has outlawed cruise ships from requiring shots. He even quit having daily case numbers released to media. A few businesses are having mask requirements but they are in the minority.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'm not saying don't use masks, but I want to put this into perspective:
If the R0 of the delta variant is really in the 5-6 range as some have said (with some, limited, data to back that up), then masks are going to have limited effectiveness.
When people bring this up, I point out the following:
1) 1 in 6 infections during the peak of the pandemic were healthcare providers and their families. These are the people that KNOW how to use PPE, like masks, the best, and they still had a high infectivity rate.
2) are you disposing of a mask, or washing it, after every usage? This virus can live on surfaces for days. A "dirty" mask is of little usage.
Just food for thought, I still advocate masks and social distancing, but just want people to realistically understand that unless they are hermits and completely isolate from society, their risks are elevated. The BEST possible protection is 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Source? You should dissect this statistic…
1) There are a lot of healthcare providers and their families in this country. Possibly more than 1 in 6 people! We should at least know the numerator here! Without it, this “1-in-6” number is largely meaningless.
2) What are the statistics on the source of infection for these workers?
3) I’d also be interested in statistics from healthcare workers who consistently used PPE and subsequently got vaccinated (I’d like to remove people who were not vaccinated subsequently from the set of people we are looking at for effective PPE use prior to vaccination - because people who did not get vaccinated did not care as much about infection so may have been lax in their protocols).
My understanding is PPE and masking has been extremely effective for the medical profession. It’s a…respiratory virus.
A high R0, as you know, does not necessarily imply that masking is not helpful. There are many factors that play into the resultant R0 in a given population, such as infectious dose, infectious period, pre-symptomatic infectious period (a factor for SARS2, and largely nullified by mask wearing), etc. It’s possible that the increased R0 of the Delta variant is effectively nearly fully countered by mask wearing (for example if it has a longer infectious period).
Agreed though - the best protection is a two-dose mRNA vaccine and an N95 mask when appropriate (indoors), with care taken to not contaminate the inside of the mask (mask reuse is perfectly fine when done carefully).
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Had to google it, b/c I knew it had been several months:
Sorry, 1 in 7, not 1 in 6. That's per the WHO.
This should NOT be surprising, TBH. As healthcare workers, we are usually vaccinated against all the infectious diseases we have to treat, and for those that we cannot be (Tuberculosis, etc.) we dawn PPE on a "next level" that is nothing comparable to what the general public can get. EVEN with those protections, we still have higher incidence of infections to many of the diseases we treat. Literally, in every hospital I worked in, we were required to have annual screening for TB, no exceptions allowed.
Couple things to correct you on, this is a respiratory DROPLET virus, not just a respiratory virus. That means it's not just airborne, but contaminates surfaces and lasts for a prolonged period of time on those surfaces. That is a VERY important distinction. Respiratory droplet viruses almost always have higher R0 than respiratory only viruses that cannot survive on surfaces.
Again, I didn't state masking was NOT helpful, I stated it is NOT a panacea and given how poorly implemented by the general public, should be viewed as having "DEFINED, but LIMITED" effectiveness. Seriously, how often do you 1) toss your disposable masks (in the hospital it is after EVERY room we enter we have to get a new mask) or 2) wash your "reusable" masks? The virus can survive just fine on an exposed N95 mask. Do you touch your mask with your hands? (presumed yes to this) Do you wash your hands after every time you touch your mask? (assuming it is not a disposable mask). The outside of the mask can easily be contaminated, leading to contamination of the inside of the mask.
You should view any reusable mask as a source of infection unless it is brand new, or just fresh out of the wash. ESPECIALLY now that we are talking about a virus with an R0 of 5-6, compared to the ones of the past year with an R0 of 2-3.
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