Coronavirus

[Tiger]

Interesting summary:

Comparison studies
- Omicron N = 52,297, cases with Omicron variant infections
- Group 2, non – omicron (delta) N = 16,982, cases with Delta variant infections

Omicron variant infection, reduced risk of hospitalization across age and comorbidity categories

Less severe in vaccinated and unvaccinated

Also common cold Cross-reactive memory T cells associate with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in COVID-19 contacts

 

[golfcart]

^^^
Thanks for the link to the video, that was very informative. Seeing similar values in this study out of the Statens Serum Institut.

Danish Omicron Study

57125 confirmed Omicron cases and only 18 deaths in those people. IFR would be flu-ish based on those numbers though the high transmission means lots more cases at once of course. Surprising that these data are out and there is no real coverage, I had to go looking pretty hard to find any Omicron IFR estimates from credible sources.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

^^^


se. Surprising that these data are out and there is no real coverage, I had to go looking pretty hard to find any Omicron IFR estimates from credible sources.

1) It’s too early to determine IFR even if you could.

2) IFR is very difficult to ascertain.

3) It’s irresponsible to talk definitively about it without knowing underlying vaccine status.

However, it seems clear that we got lucky and Omicron is comparatively mild overall. It does look substantially worse than influenza on average if you are not vaccinated. Not a walk in the park. It’s not clear yet what its exact virulence properties are if you are vaccinated.

It’s still a highly virulent pandemic virus, and not to be trifled with without vaccination. An IFR of 0.3%, for example, would be awful. Your quoted 0.03% - could be reasonable for a mostly vaccinated population (looks like it was about 90% for the sample in question in the Danish summary). Still higher than desired but potentially getting to a manageable situation.

 

[NikolaACDC]

1) It’s too early to determine IFR even if you could.

...

That.
According to Worldometer Denmark's 7-day average for infections hasn't even peaked yet, or at least might only just about now.
A short term peak was on Jan 5.

Denmark COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Denmark Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Much too early to count the hospitalized and dead.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Article
Covid loses 90% of ability to infect within 20 minutes in air – study

about a study (not yet peer-reviewed)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.08.22268944v1.full.pdf

"Coronavirus loses 90% of its ability to infect us within 20 minutes of becoming airborne – with most of the loss occurring within the first five minutes, the world’s first simulations of how the virus survives in exhaled air suggest.
The findings re-emphasise the importance of short-range Covid transmission, with physical distancing and mask-wearing likely to be the most effective means of preventing infection. Ventilation, though still worthwhile, is likely to have a lesser impact."

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Article
Covid loses 90% of ability to infect within 20 minutes in air – study

about a study (not yet peer-reviewed)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.08.22268944v1.full.pdf

"Coronavirus loses 90% of its ability to infect us within 20 minutes of becoming airborne – with most of the loss occurring within the first five minutes, the world’s first simulations of how the virus survives in exhaled air suggest.
The findings re-emphasise the importance of short-range Covid transmission, with physical distancing and mask-wearing likely to be the most effective means of preventing infection. Ventilation, though still worthwhile, is likely to have a lesser impact."

I’m not sure I quite follow how ventilation gets the shaft here. Dilution is the solution to pollution.

 

[Doggydogworld]

^^^
Thanks for the link to the video, that was very informative. Seeing similar values in this study out of the Statens Serum Institut.

Danish Omicron Study

57125 confirmed Omicron cases and only 18 deaths in those people. IFR would be flu-ish based on those numbers though the high transmission means lots more cases at once of course. Surprising that these data are out and there is no real coverage, I had to go looking pretty hard to find any Omicron IFR estimates from credible sources.

Here's the actual study with 52,297 Omicron and 16,982 non-Omicron (almost all Delta) confirmed infections. I can't find the 18 deaths in the Omicron group. I only see one. But Figure 1 shows virtually all Omicron infections occurred in the last half of December with the vast majority in the final week. These people didn't have enough time to die by January 1, or in most cases not even enough to be hospitalized.

This study focused on the relative risk between Omicron and Delta. I don't see how to use this data to estimate IFR/CFR.

 

[Krugerrand]

1) It’s too early to determine IFR even if you could.

2) IFR is very difficult to ascertain.

3) It’s irresponsible to talk definitively about it without knowing underlying vaccine status.

However, it seems clear that we got lucky and Omicron is comparatively mild overall. It does look substantially worse than influenza on average if you are not vaccinated. Not a walk in the park. It’s not clear yet what its exact virulence properties are if you are vaccinated.

It’s still a highly virulent pandemic virus, and not to be trifled with without vaccination. An IFR of 0.3%, for example, would be awful. Your quoted 0.03% - could be reasonable for a mostly vaccinated population (looks like it was about 90% for the sample in question in the Danish summary). Still higher than desired but potentially getting to a manageable situation.

Word from an ICU is that only those with auto-immune disorders are dying from Omicron. Otherwise symptoms are predominantly very sore throat, severe headache, diarrhea.

On a personal note, the nursing home mom is in had their FIRST resident case of COVID. To go two years with not a single case and now that all residents and staff are vaccinated AND boosted, then whamo! -

Anyway, everyone got tested and a second resident was positive on a different floor. One week later and second test for everyone; cases now on all floors with the most cases being on the dementia/violent floor.

The home is following all the protocols they’ve followed since day 1, including things like everyone has to stay in their rooms, meals in rooms, no showers/baths (only bed baths), full PPE for all staff and changing after leaving each room, no visitors unless specified primary caregiver (who must be fully vaccinated and boosted) and the resident is dying, and so on. This variant just doesn’t give a flying monkey’s butt what you do.

Mom tested negative. They’ll test everyone again next week.

 

[bkp_duke]

COVID (Omicron) rampant here. Neighborhood of about 50 homes, half of them are positive. Good number of cases at the school.

I've had symptoms for about a week, very mild (head cold basically), and today I lost my sense of smell. Otherwise fine, but I'm assuming I have it. Not going to waste a test to confirm, as at this point it doesn't matter, testing would not change anything.

 

[Tranquil Rage]

COVID (Omicron) rampant here. Neighborhood of about 50 homes, half of them are positive. Good number of cases at the school.

I've had symptoms for about a week, very mind (head cold basically), and today I lost my sense of smell. Otherwise fine, but I'm assuming I have it. Not going to waste a test to confirm, as at this point it doesn't matter, testing would not change anything.

Hope you feel better soon.

 

[bkp_duke]

Hope you feel better soon.

I'm all good. Honestly, had worse colds. But thanks for the well wishes.

Vaccine-primed immune response is doing it thing. I just wish I could SMELL again! LoL.

 

[Norbert]

1) It’s too early to determine IFR even if you could.

2) IFR is very difficult to ascertain.

3) It’s irresponsible to talk definitively about it without knowing underlying vaccine status.

However, it seems clear that we got lucky and Omicron is comparatively mild overall. It does look substantially worse than influenza on average if you are not vaccinated. Not a walk in the park. It’s not clear yet what its exact virulence properties are if you are vaccinated.

It’s still a highly virulent pandemic virus, and not to be trifled with without vaccination. An IFR of 0.3%, for example, would be awful. Your quoted 0.03% - could be reasonable for a mostly vaccinated population (looks like it was about 90% for the sample in question in the Danish summary). Still higher than desired but potentially getting to a manageable situation.

[See EDIT below]

Using US numbers for deaths Jan 5 - Jan 12, compared to case numbers 14 days earlier, Dec 22 - Dec 29, I get using worldometers.info numbers:

Cases: 54698241 - 52524348 = 2173893
Deaths: 867197 - 854709 = 12488
Ratio: 0.6% (rounded from 0.574%, not calling it IFR or CFR since this is not a scientific method, for example the offset of 14 days is somewhat arbitrary, and it may be heavily influenced by remaining Delta cases)

0.6% would be about 20x compared to a ratio of 0.03%, so while this isn't scientific, I don't think that the actual US numbers support the idea of such a low IFR. (At least not yet.)

EDIT: Checking some more numbers I found that end of December the percentage of Delta (vs Omicron) was still so high as to make this calculation quite meaningless. Omicron might very well have a quite low death rate.

 

[bkp_duke]

Using US numbers for deaths Jan 5 - Jan 12, compared to case numbers 14 days earlier, Dec 22 - Dec 29, I get using worldometers.info numbers:

Cases: 54698241 - 52524348 = 2173893
Deaths: 867197 - 854709 = 12488
Ratio: 0.6% (rounded from 0.574%, not calling it IFR or CFR since this is not a scientific method, for example the offset of 14 days is somewhat arbitrary, and it may be heavily influenced by remaining Delta cases)

0.6% would be about 20x compared to a ratio of 0.03%, so while this isn't scientific, I don't think that the actual US numbers support the idea of such a low IFR. (At least not yet.)

Compounded by this dataset would still be a mix of Delta and Omicron. Further compounded by the fact that people on ventilators don't usually die quickly (average time on a vet with COVID I suspect is 3 weeks +/- a week).

 

[Norbert]

Compounded by this dataset would still be a mix of Delta and Omicron. Further compounded by the fact that people on ventilators don't usually die quickly (average time on a vet with COVID I suspect is 3 weeks +/- a week).

Agreed, as I more or less mentioned. It probably would be better not to put parenthesis around "At least not yet". Perhaps in 2-4 weeks such a calculation might become much more accurate. Or "less inaccurate".

EDIT: See EDIT above. Some other numbers showed that end of December the percentage of Delta infections was still so high that the calculation doesn't say anything about Omicron. (The CDC even reduced its estimates for the Omicron percentage some time ago.) Omicron's death rate might really be very low.

 

[golfcart]

1) It’s too early to determine IFR even if you could.

2) IFR is very difficult to ascertain.

3) It’s irresponsible to talk definitively about it without knowing underlying vaccine status.

However, it seems clear that we got lucky and Omicron is comparatively mild overall. It does look substantially worse than influenza on average if you are not vaccinated. Not a walk in the park. It’s not clear yet what its exact virulence properties are if you are vaccinated.

It’s still a highly virulent pandemic virus, and not to be trifled with without vaccination. An IFR of 0.3%, for example, would be awful. Your quoted 0.03% - could be reasonable for a mostly vaccinated population (looks like it was about 90% for the sample in question in the Danish summary). Still higher than desired but potentially getting to a manageable situation.

Did you read the paper? Nothing irresponsible about reporting what they found. The study followed confirmed cases of the variant and discussed the outcomes. Highly vaccinated Danish population is faring (relatively) well against this variant… that is good news. Acknowledging good news is ok

 

[golfcart]

I'm all good. Honestly, had worse colds. But thanks for the well wishes.

Vaccine-primed immune response is doing it thing. I just wish I could SMELL again! LoL.

Had 4 family members get it in the last 2 weeks and all said the same thing. 4-5 days of cold symptoms then back to normal except one person lost sense of taste. Glad you have fared well.

 

[golfcart]

[See EDIT below]

Using US numbers for deaths Jan 5 - Jan 12, compared to case numbers 14 days earlier, Dec 22 - Dec 29, I get using worldometers.info numbers:

Cases: 54698241 - 52524348 = 2173893
Deaths: 867197 - 854709 = 12488
Ratio: 0.6% (rounded from 0.574%, not calling it IFR or CFR since this is not a scientific method, for example the offset of 14 days is somewhat arbitrary, and it may be heavily influenced by remaining Delta cases)

0.6% would be about 20x compared to a ratio of 0.03%, so while this isn't scientific, I don't think that the actual US numbers support the idea of such a low IFR. (At least not yet.)

EDIT: Checking some more numbers I found that end of December the percentage of Delta (vs Omicron) was still so high as to make this calculation quite meaningless. Omicron might very well have a quite low death rate.

If I read the paper correctly the .03% in the study I referred to was from a Danish group of confirmed omicron cases where they followed the outcomes of those confirmed cases. So there is no mixing of variants in that number. One could certainly argue that Americans are likely less healthy and less vaccinated overall than Danish folks but it’s a nice ballpark starting point IMO.

 

[Norbert]

If I read the paper correctly the .03% in the study I referred to was from a Danish group of confirmed omicron cases where they followed the outcomes of those confirmed cases. So there is no mixing of variants in that number. One could certainly argue that Americans are likely less healthy and less vaccinated overall than Danish folks but it’s a nice ballpark starting point IMO.

I would take the study as a good sign, but not more than that, for two reasons:
1) The absolute number of deaths in the study is quite low and might be somewhat random.
2) More importantly, the timespan of observation seems to have often been too short, and especially since Omicron does appear to be milder per person, it might on average take longer to die from it, in case that happens. Also, not being a doctor, I'd have the question if then instead it might have a lasting negative effect in some number of cases.

 

[wdolson]

COVID (Omicron) rampant here. Neighborhood of about 50 homes, half of them are positive. Good number of cases at the school.

I've had symptoms for about a week, very mild (head cold basically), and today I lost my sense of smell. Otherwise fine, but I'm assuming I have it. Not going to waste a test to confirm, as at this point it doesn't matter, testing would not change anything.

Hope you feel better soon. It's interesting your symptom pattern. Someone my partner works with had the same pattern, he got it from his anti-vax daughter and her kids, he tested positive, and had what seemed like a head cold for about a week, then lost his sense of taste and smell. It's been dragging on almost three weeks for him.

My partner was concerned his condition was deteriorating, but this might just be how it progresses in some people. He has some risk factors like a heart condition and I think he's in his late 70s. He did get boosted as soon as he could, so he's triple vaxed.

 

[msm859]

I'm all good. Honestly, had worse colds. But thanks for the well wishes.

Vaccine-primed immune response is doing it thing. I just wish I could SMELL again! LoL.

So personal question, were you boosted? And if so what do you say to the people who question why anyone should get boosted if it doesn't stop them from getting Covid? AND for those same people if they do get Covid should they then still get boosted?
Thanks, and speedy recovery.