Coronavirus

[scottf200]

Quote: A recent study out of South Africa shows:
Unvaccinated + Omicron = Immunity to Omicron ONLY
Vaccinated + Omicron = Immunity to Omicron, Delta, Beta, C.1.2, AND D614G!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1493612030930075663

 

[scottf200]

BA.2 - more than "doubling" weekly it seems.
4 weeks ago: 0.4%
3 weeks ago: 0.7% [0.8% would be prev week double]
2 weeks ago: 1.6% [1.4% would be prev week double]
1 weeks ago: 3.9% [3.2% would be prev week double]

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

 

[Dave EV]

Quote: A recent study out of South Africa shows:
Unvaccinated + Omicron = Immunity to Omicron ONLY
Vaccinated + Omicron = Immunity to Omicron, Delta, Beta, C.1.2, AND D614G!

I find this interesting because Omicron was able to basically kill off Delta in a month once introduced to a population (1 month to < 10%, 2 months to < 1% as seen in your other post). If Omicron-unvaccinated are still vulnerable to Delta, shouldn't Delta still be hanging around with greater numbers?

 

[scottf200]

Quote: A recent study out of South Africa shows:
Unvaccinated + Omicron = Immunity to Omicron ONLY
Vaccinated + Omicron = Immunity to Omicron, Delta, Beta, C.1.2, AND D614G!

I find this interesting because Omicron was able to basically kill off Delta in a month once introduced to a population (1 month to < 10%, 2 months to < 1% as seen in your other post). If Omicron-unvaccinated are still vulnerable to Delta, shouldn't Delta still be hanging around with greater numbers?

Would that imply the below or am I thinking about it the wrong way:

UnVaccinated + Delta = Immunity to Omicron, Delta, Beta, C.1.2, AND D614G!

 

[EVNow]

I find this interesting because Omicron was able to basically kill off Delta in a month once introduced to a population (1 month to < 10%, 2 months to < 1% as seen in your other post). If Omicron-unvaccinated are still vulnerable to Delta, shouldn't Delta still be hanging around with greater numbers?

Not if there aren’t many people with delta to pass on the virus to unvaccinated omicron people.

ps: we can’t rule out re-emergence of delta once Omicron subsides.

 

[EVNow]

It’s always interesting to see how people whitewash history.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1493705687259656197

 

[Yuri_G]

BA.2 - more than "doubling" weekly it seems.
4 weeks ago: 0.4%
3 weeks ago: 0.7% [0.8% would be prev week double]
2 weeks ago: 1.6% [1.4% would be prev week double]
1 weeks ago: 3.9% [3.2% would be prev week double]

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

Check out BA1.1, also. It's interesting how it's taken hold here and in other western countries, while BA.2 has run rampant in Denmark. I wonder how much protection 1.1 will give against 2 if that does end up outcompeting the other sub-variants...

 

[wdolson]

Just curious as to where you have found evidence that Omicron 2 is more lethal. I’ve been searching and can’t find any info so far.

Really appreciate your posts on this forum thread, by the way!

Posted on page 1402 of this thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492924522730639364

I probably misread the data, but deaths are going up as Omicron 2 went up in Denmark.

 

[EVNow]

Finally Covid hits NewZealand. They are moving to containment phase from elimination.

Buying time: The good and bad of New Zealand's Omicron plan

Analysis - New Zealand's approach to Covid-19 can be boiled down to buy time - and it's worked. But now it's time to change tactics, writes Tim Watkin.

www.rnz.co.nz

 

[scottf200]

BA.2 - more than "doubling" weekly it seems.
4 weeks ago: 0.4%
3 weeks ago: 0.7% [0.8% would be prev week double]
2 weeks ago: 1.6% [1.4% would be prev week double]
1 weeks ago: 3.9% [3.2% would be prev week double]

Preprint: "Virological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2 variant"

Virological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2 variant

Soon after the emergence and global spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron lineage, BA.1 (ref[1][1], [2][2]), another Omicron lineage, BA.2, has initiated outcompeting BA.1. Statistical analysis shows that the effective reproduction number of BA.2 is...

www.biorxiv.org

"
Abstract
Soon after the emergence and global spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron lineage, BA.1, another Omicron lineage, BA.2, has initiated outcompeting BA.1.

Statistical analysis shows that the effective reproduction number of BA.2 is 1.4-fold higher than that of BA.1.

Neutralisation experiments show that the vaccine-induced humoral immunity fails to function against BA.2 like BA.1, and notably, the antigenicity of BA.2 is different from BA.1.

Cell culture experiments show that BA.2 is more replicative in human nasal epithelial cells and more fusogenic than BA.1. Furthermore, infection experiments using hamsters show that BA.2 is more pathogenic than BA.1.

Our multiscale investigations suggest that the risk of BA.2 for global health is potentially higher than that of BA.1.
"

 

[wdolson]

News coming out about BA.2, it looks like it's as dangerous as earlier variants and more contagious than BA.1. This could get bad:
As BA.2 subvariant rises, lab studies point to signs of severity

 

[madodel]

News coming out about BA.2, it looks like it's as dangerous as earlier variants and more contagious than BA.1. This could get bad:
As BA.2 subvariant rises, lab studies point to signs of severity

Well from the way so many are behaving around here, COVID is over, so chill.

 

[Dave EV]

News coming out about BA.2, it looks like it's as dangerous as earlier variants and more contagious than BA.1. This could get bad:
As BA.2 subvariant rises, lab studies point to signs of severity

The article is contradictory - on one hand it says that in countries where BA.2 is dominant, like the UK, deaths are on the rise, but then later it says it may be less deadly thanks to greater immunity.

Finally, it ends with talk of a "finish line" - the reality is that I don't think we're anywhere close to reaching the finish line, regardless of whether we maintain strict measures or let it run wild. It appears that we'll continue to have wave after wave of COVID unless maybe we can convince enough people to get enough COVID shots. It might not be until we add COVID shots to the standard array of childhood vaccinations that we might beat this down enough to fully go back to normal.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It appears that we'll continue to have wave after wave of COVID

I think it is really hard to predict, but I guess I hope and think it is possible that this will not be the case. I think it was Joseph Allen who said “three spikes and you are out” (of the vulnerable pool, not necessarily out of the pool of people who can still be infected). Hopefully that turns out to be true - it seems to be largely true for vaccines. If it is true in general we can’t have too much capacity for further damaging waves. Can we? I sound like a COVID denialist now, haha.

We’re moving rapidly towards a level of disease and CFR which put this close to a influenza level of mortality (probably still higher is my guess). That could definitely change with variants…but for now.

In the meantime hopefully we have finally learned, and stockpile long-lasting quality masks for all, rapid tests, improve healthcare resilience and testing supply chains, investing in cleaner air, and above all work on increasing access to therapeutics for all. Hopefully Paxlovid will prove effective and safe in a broad population and maybe we can use that to drive virulence down even further, even if the infectiousness proves unmanageable. The drug interactions are tough for a subset of the population but it seems manageable. Therapeutics might be the only long term way out of this mess if the baseline case rate does not go low enough.

In any case we need to take advantage of any breathing room we have, so we can have a nice staged, non-chaotic response to further spread and future surges, which will likely come. The good news, I guess, is that as long as COVID is around, influenza mortality, except for pandemic influenza, will probably remain low.

 

[EVNow]

It might not be until we add COVID shots to the standard array of childhood vaccinations that we might beat this down enough to fully go back to normal.

Depends ... does everyone need to get vaccines or just infections are enough. Seems to me by the end of Omicron wave - everyone in US would either have had Covid at some point or had vaccines. So, they would all have some level of immunity. Is that enough to turn Covid from a pandemic to an endemic virus ... ?

Looks like most states are getting ready to get stop all the mask mandates. At some point federal government will remove mask restrictions on public transport too and we'll be at Denmark level of "free-for-all".

Then, we'll either see a huge wave or waning or steady case rate. If we see a huge wave, Covid would not have become endemic - if after restrictions are lifted, the case count still reduces, we would be entering the endemic phase.

Either way, we should not be surprised to see reinfection/breakout case led wave in the winter. We'll never get enough people boosted every 6 months ...

 

[scottf200]

BA.2 - more than "doubling" weekly it seems.
4 weeks ago: 0.4%
3 weeks ago: 0.7% [0.8% would be prev week double]
2 weeks ago: 1.6% [1.4% would be prev week double]
1 weeks ago: 3.9% [3.2% would be prev week double]

FYI, using the 1.4 fold (aka 40%) increase over prev Omicron, I just did the straight extrapolation to see how long until BA.2 takes over.

 

[Terminator857]

FYI, using the 1.4 fold (aka 40%) increase over prev Omicron, I just did the straight extrapolation to see how long until BA.2 takes over.

Thanks for that math. Can you share the spreadsheet?

 

[Dave EV]

Depends ... does everyone need to get vaccines or just infections are enough. Seems to me by the end of Omicron wave - everyone in US would either have had Covid at some point or had vaccines. So, they would all have some level of immunity. Is that enough to turn Covid from a pandemic to an endemic virus ... ?

Don't forget newborns - infants are at higher risk of complications from COVID than older children, so we absolutely need a safe vaccine (probably 2-dose) to add to the list of 25 or so other vaccinations infants receive before the age of 15 months. By the time children are 18, the typical child will have received 30+ or so vaccination doses against a wide spectrum of disease and that doesn't even count annual flu shots.

Immunization Schedules for 18 & Younger

View and print CDC recommended immunization schedules.

www.cdc.gov

Once a COVID vaccine is added to the standard list of recommended vaccines one should receive, we will hopefully get close to the point where we can treat COVID as endemic.

 

[bkp_duke]

You're ignoring newborns - infants are at higher risk of complications from COVID than older children, so we absolutely need a safe vaccine (probably 2-dose) to add to the list of 25 or so other vaccinations infants receive before the age of 15 months. By the time children are 18, the typical child will have received 30+ or so vaccination doses against a wide spectrum of disease and that doesn't even count annual flu shots.

Immunization Schedules for 18 & Younger

View and print CDC recommended immunization schedules.

www.cdc.gov

Once a COVID vaccine is added to the standard list of recommended vaccines one should receive, we will hopefully get close to the point where we can treat COVID as endemic.

Data to support this assumption/conjecture, please. In the 0-5 group, deaths AND long-term complications are extremely EXTREMELY rare. Which is a good thing, because data for the vaccine trials in this group is really bad. The vaccine just isn't nearly as efficacious in this group as the 5 and older population.

I know none of my colleagues (pediatricians) that are rushing to immunize this group currently. Hospitalizations are more rare than seasonal influenza in this group.

EDIT - and mothers that are vaccinated while pregnant have been shown to deliver strong antibodies to their fetus', providing newborns up to 6 months of protection (6 months is pretty universal for the "fade off" of maternal antibodies).

 

[Doggydogworld]

BA.2 - more than "doubling" weekly it seems.
4 weeks ago: 0.4%
3 weeks ago: 0.7% [0.8% would be prev week double]
2 weeks ago: 1.6% [1.4% would be prev week double]
1 weeks ago: 3.9% [3.2% would be prev week double]

1/22 - 0.4% of 715k cases/day = 2860 BA2 cases/day
1/29 - 0.7% of 514k cases/day = 3600 BA2 cases/day
2/5 - 1.6% of 292k cases/day = 4675 BA2 cases/day
2/12 - 3.9% of 178k cases/day = 6900 BA2 cases/day

This doesn't strike me as explosive growth.