Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Good to see deaths finally starting to drop again.

ICU numbers down 20% from peak as well, so hopefully they will keep dropping.

I am not optimistic about the chances of getting to levels from April or the prior year on cases, and deaths. But hopefully it happens.

In the past I would have thought there was real potential to get to low levels, but it seems like there is no way we’ll get to a point where a winter surge won’t happen. It just seems to be like Trevor Bedford models, where waning immunity and the transmissibility are just too much to allow a drop to extremely low levels, like influenza.

Hopefully he is wrong for the first time, though.

The only hope I have is that our underascertainment of infections has actually not been as high as we thought (traditionally 3-4x, but maybe it is as low as 2-2.5x), which would increase the likelihood of lower overall disease levels once everyone actually has some immunity.

Have to be honest, don’t have a lot of confidence in the booster either - though I do think it will very likely help make it really mild if I do get it.

Been nice to not be sick at all for the past three years. Infection control really works! Prior to the pandemic I had already started being careful with door handles and hand hygiene, which helped a bit, but never realized just how readily things could spread via the air.

 

[Jeff N]

I had both, no issues. A bit of a sore arm in the COVID side. No continual, but it would hurt if the arm bumped into something. Basically the same as all the other COVID shots I've had.

Same here when I got them together a year ago.

 

[scottf200]

Via: "Dr. Cyrus Shahpar - @WhiteHouse COVID-19 Data Director, emergency physician, epidemiologist, years in global health emergency preparedness and response"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573309508650156033

 

[DrGriz]

Via: "Dr. Cyrus Shahpar - @WhiteHouse COVID-19 Data Director, emergency physician, epidemiologist, years in global health emergency preparedness and response"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573309508650156033

We are just 2 months out from our last booster. Delayed getting it to July because when we donated blood to the Red Cross in late May, our covid antibodies tested extra high (they were looking for candidates for convalescent plasma donations). So we felt confident that waiting was OK. So the recommendation is to wait at least 2 months after the last booster. Some experts say 3-4 months would be better. We will probably give it another 2 or 3 weeks which will put us at 3 months.

 

[dhanson865]

Let us know how that goes - the COVID shot has enough temporary side effects that I didn't want to get both at the same time despite never having more than a slightly sore arm with the flu shot as the anecdotes I've heard about getting both is that it's not fun.

Also, I wanted to wait for October for the flu shot so that antibody levels are higher during the typical peak flu season. Speaking of which - are there any good flu status tracking websites?

Edit: I did find this CDC website which currently shows flu activity at very low levels:

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report

Learn more about the weekly influenza surveillance report (FluView) prepared by the Influenza Division.

www.cdc.gov

Moderna by itself was no issue for me.

Moderna + Flu at the same time no issue for me (I think I did that in 2021 with the 3rd stab of Moderna aka 1st booster). Couldn't tell the difference between the combo and just taking the Moderna by itself.

Moderna + Shingles vaccine at the same time was much rougher (did that in June 2022). Just a slight headach that a single Tylenol pill handled and an upset stomach that I took a pepto tablet every few hours to settle.

I haven't taken the shingles vaccine by itself yet (might do that tomorrow) so I can't say if the covid vaccine was any part of it, maybe it was just the shingles vaccine that made it rough.

I won't double up with the shingles vaccine this time because the timing isn't right for the next covid booster but I would have no hesitation to take the flu and covid shots on the same day at least with my past reaction as a guide.

 

[DrGriz]

Moderna by itself was no issue for me.

Moderna + Flu at the same time no issue for me (I think I did that in 2021 with the 3rd stab of Moderna aka 1st booster). Couldn't tell the difference between the combo and just taking the Moderna by itself.

Moderna + Shingles vaccine at the same time was much rougher (did that in June 2022). Just a slight headach that a single Tylenol pill handled and an upset stomach that I took a pepto tablet every few hours to settle.

I haven't taken the shingles vaccine by itself yet (might do that tomorrow) so I can't say if the covid vaccine was any part of it, maybe it was just the shingles vaccine that made it rough.

I won't double up with the shingles vaccine this time because the timing isn't right for the next covid booster but I would have no hesitation to take the flu and covid shots on the same day at least with my past reaction as a guide.

I would say for my average patient shingles vaccine is harder on you than any covid vaccine. YMMV

 

[shinytop]

I had shingles several years ago. Very unpleasant experience.

 

[DrGriz]

I had shingles several years ago. Very unpleasant experience.

Worth not getting again. Vaccine is very good. Much better than Covid over time.

 

[JRP3]

Ironic

Pfizer's chief executive tests positive for COVID-19 for second time in two months

Albert Bourla, the head of the company that created one of the most widely used coronavirus vaccines, said he was "feeling well and symptom free".

news.sky.com

 

[DrGriz]

Ironic

Pfizer's chief executive tests positive for COVID-19 for second time in two months

Albert Bourla, the head of the company that created one of the most widely used coronavirus vaccines, said he was "feeling well and symptom free".

news.sky.com

You have to wonder a little bit about that. Since it was less than 2 months he was following the guidelines by not having the bivalent booster. It seems too late for Paxlovid rebound. Yet, the strains haven't changed significantly. Anyway, kind of interesting.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Ironic

Pfizer's chief executive tests positive for COVID-19 for second time in two months

Albert Bourla, the head of the company that created one of the most widely used coronavirus vaccines, said he was "feeling well and symptom free".

news.sky.com

So was he tested to attend an event, because he was exposed, or because "symptom free" actually means felt sick?
I wonder how Paxlovid use plays into these quick reinfections?

 

[scottf200]

Looks like there are 3 variants "expanding"

 

[TehPuddingMan]

How do I stop getting notifications and/or block a thread?

 

[Daniel in SD]

How do I stop getting notifications and/or block a thread?

One simple trick to stop COVID!

 

[TehPuddingMan]

One simple trick to stop COVID!

View attachment 858849

Thank you!

 

[jerry33]

How do I stop getting notifications and/or block a thread?

You can also go to settings and select what kind, if any, notifications you want. So you can have watched threads with no notifications.

 

[scottf200]

First I've heard of BQ.1.1

Below via: Science | AAAS

Nearly 3 years into the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 faces a formidable challenge: finding new ways around the immunity humans have built up through vaccines and countless infections. Worrisome new data show it is up to the challenge. Several new and highly immune-evasive strains of the virus have caught scientists’ attention in recent weeks; one or more may well cause big, new COVID-19 waves this fall and winter.
...
Immunologist Yunlong Richard Cao at Peking University and his colleagues found similar results for BA.2.75.2 after testing blood samples from 40 people who had been vaccinated with three doses of CoronaVac, a vaccine made from inactivated virus, and 100 more who had been vaccinated and then had breakthrough infections with BA.1, BA.2, or BA.5. The team found that BQ.1.1 had a similarly striking ability to evade antibodies.

1 of 2

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576716682512388096

2 of 2

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577025081263685632

 

[scottf200]

COVID State of Affairs: Oct 5 -- Katelyn Jetelina

COVID State of Affairs: Oct 5

Here we go again. The start of a new wave. Eyes are on Western Europe, as hospitalizations are uniformly increasing. As we’ve seen throughout the pandemic, some are hospitalized “with COVID19,” but it’s important to note that the Germany’s numbers are reported purely as “

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Here we go again. The start of a new wave. Eyes are on Western Europe, as hospitalizations are uniformly increasing. As we’ve seen throughout the pandemic, some are hospitalized “with COVID19,” but it’s important to note that the Germany’s numbers are reported purely as “for COVID19.” In other words, not only are infections increasing, but so is severe disease.

Interestingly, no new subvariant is driving this wave, as the majority of cases are still the “old” BA.5 subvariant. This means changing weather, waning immunity, and/or changing behaviors are the culprit. This theory is only solidified when we see patterns are not changing in neighboring country Israel, for example, whose weather hasn’t started changing yet.
<snip
1 Convergent evolution. Subvariants with similar mutations are popping up independently across the globe. CA.1 popped up in one place with a R346X mutation, while BQ.1.1 popped up in a different spot with the same mutation. This pattern has been the hallmark of COVID-19, so this isn’t necessarily surprising. What is noteworthy is where these mutations are happening—a spot that helps Omicron continue to partially escape immunity.

2 Notice BQ.1.1 (in red above). This is a direct descendant of BA.5. While it has the most spike mutations, we picked the BA.5 formula for U.S. fall boosters. Our boosters will work best if this subvariant dominates in the future. For now, BQ.1.1 is winning the race in Europe, so this may have a good chance of taking over in the U.S. We may get lucky.

3 This is what we know. More than 90% of testing and sequencing has been stopped across the globe. This means we are largely flying blind and there may be a surprise in the mix we are unaware of just yet.
<snip>

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Lots of minor Omicron variants out there. Fortunately no big shifts. Guess we’ll see about fitness. Waiting for Trevor’s analysis, but he might wait for winter wave onset to comment. Seems like so far it’s progressing according to his perpetual COVID analysis. If only there were something we could do to increase immunity levels. Unfortunately there is not.

 

[shinytop]

We could be adult and require all get the vaccinations unless their is a firm medical reason they cannot receive it. We do this for schooling, the military, foreign travel, whey not for allowing everybody to live.