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Cost to own Model 3 AWD vs Subaru Outback

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I've driven through a foot of fresh snow in my model 3. It had no problem pushing through the snow. You'll want to go slow or you might damage front bumper, but the car has plenty of traction (at least with winter tires it does) and power to push the snow out of the way. I wouldn't want to do it every day, but there aren't that many places that get a foot of snow everyday.
 
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Model 3 insurance is 60%+ higher in Michigan than other cars of similar age/MSRP. Most of that increase is in the comprehensive and collision premiums. There are also higher state vehicle registration costs to offset the lack of taxes paid at the pump - but these costs are significantly higher than any tax paid at the pump annually. With these increases any savings on fuel and oil changes are essentially wiped out (unless you drive significantly more than the average person of 12-15k / year).

Now this varies state to state. In your state there may be no price difference from the vehicle you are currently driving.

Buy a Tesla if you have a real affinity of working towards a greener earth (the car itself doesn't really get you there until your source of power is clean/renewable as well). Or you really like the cars. Do not buy a Tesla thinking you are going to save money. The price is still a bit too high compared to other options.

Good luck.
 
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You might want to check with your car insurance agent on the cost for the M3. Some people have gotten unpleasant surprises with the unexpected high cost of insurance, but it seems to vary widely by company. Before the M3, my wife had an Audi RS3 and the M3 is actually a bit less expensive to insure for us, but it is still more expensive than my Porsche which is crazy.
What Porsche model? My Model 3s are significantly less to insurance than any other non-vintage vehicle I own. Porsche Panamera Turbo was almost $100 more per month than the 3. (State Farm)
 
Haven't read though all the replies yet, so sorry if I'm doubling up on info.

We compared the long-term cost of ownership for an LR AWD Model 3 vs. a Subaru Crosstrek (probably a bit cheaper but also more efficient, I'll get into that) in Excel heavily before getting the Model 3. We do a lot of rural driving (really need max range), highway commuting, would really prefer AWD, and like smaller vehicles. I also do all my own oil changes etc., but don't really go through brakes (we're gentle drivers that use gearing more than friction brakes to slow down). My wife is very much from "drive it 'til it dies" background, so this wasn't a light decision (thus the Excel sheet!). So I feel like we're similar in some regards here. Keep in mind I compared new-to-new though, not used. Worth noting that Model 3 has high resale value, so a used Model 3 vs. a used Subaru might technically make the Model 3 look worse than new comparisons.

If you want more the details (but I'll summarize here), check out my old thread: Is a Model 3 really cheaper?: A simplified analysis from an owner. The takeaway is that you should buy the Tesla if you have some motivator beyond cost.

Even with very expensive gas prices but relatively decent electricity rates, my calculated break-even point is about 14 years. I think this is more than I mentioned in that thread, because I've now accounted for some things I didn't know at the time (e.g. all charging inefficiencies, insurance, more pessimistic about Winter efficiency). At this point I expect some random catastrophic failure from either vehicle and I just can't predict the cost of that, so I basically will call it even long term. The costs all vary by your gas prices, your electricity rates, and your insurance rates. But at the end of the day, the multiple-thousand dollar differences between the vehicles does take quite some time to catch up. There's actually not a lot of difference in this regard when comparing my cheap electricity vs. your somewhat free electricity! But you do have much cheaper gas, which tilts favour to the Subaru.

I'd make the following observations about Tesla vs. Subaru:
  • Model 3 AWD isn't AWD. The front motor engagement is rare and weak. It'll help remove you if you're stuck or help you accelerate faster than everyone else from red light. But it is a primarily RWD car, and behaves a lot like one albeit with decent response to traction loss.
  • Subaru actually has more usable assistance goodies like Rear Cross Traffic Alert that Tesla doesn't have. You may prefer these over things like AutoPilot/AutoSteer which will be of limited or no use in snow or more rural roads.
  • If the nearest Service center is more than 2h away (especially if Subaru is closer), this becomes painful. Mobile Service is not available everywhere. You often cannot bring a Tesla to any ol' garage with the issues I've seen on here (EV-specific failures).
  • Model Y (not 3) has a better mode for snow conditions that uses both motors. I think it's the off-road mode or something.
As for upcoming EVs, I've been keeping an eye on Volkswagen. They actually seem relatively competent and will have stuff coming to North America soon (you may need to wait a year or two extra depending on what model you desire).

As for your longer day commute, no. Absolutely not, not without incredible risk and anxiety. You need a charge stop in between. On bad Winter days, I get 40% less compared to rated range. Everyone who tells you "just don't use the heat" is so wrong - you need to see out the windshield (it doesn't get heat from an ICE!) and your needs your unfrozen limbs/digits to operate the vehicle. For an average Winter day, I get about 30% less compared to rated - for a 310mi range LR AWD, that's only 217mi of range from 100% to 0%.

This is what I recommend when counting practical EV range:
  • For daily operation, assume you use the 10-90% segment of the battery for best battery health. (effectively 80% usable capacity; 310*0.8 == 248mi practical daily rated range)
  • For average Winter operation around freezing temps, take off 30% from your usable capacity. 173mi usable range in freezing Winter conditions.
  • For nastier Winter operation (-10C or 14F), take 40% off. That would be 149mi usable range.
See how quickly 310 rated miles can go to 150 real-world miles? Heating is expensive!

We're not sure how much better the Model Y will be. To my understanding, for daily driving, if below freezing temps, not much better actually. However if you have a hot battery just off of a Supercharger session, it can pull heat from that for quite a while. It might also do well at about 10C/50F ambient temps (Spring/Fall mornings?).

As for running it until it dies, I'll do my usual and counter the fan ideas here. Elon says the LR battery is good for about 1500 cycles, which he expects is 500,000mi. That is best-case scenario. The battery cares about kWh used, not miles. So heating, usage of Sentry mode, standby usage, personal driving efficiency, etc. all take away from that 500,000mi figure. Just something to keep in mind.

Last note, if you go for an EV, get a 240V charging setup for sure. We did OK on 120V and keeping it always charging when home (120km commute every day), but it was barely enough and also far less efficient. Your commutes are longer, and you really need to charge a lot to have the freedom to just decide to go somewhere else (unless you can rely on a Supercharger or CHAdeMO station [adapter required]). We had to use public charging a lot, which I'm sure the local coffee shop and lunch spot appreciated :D
 
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I compared insurance from my 2017 BMW 5 Series to a Tesla 3 and it would be $300 more to insure the Tesla 3 in Ohio with Erie Insurance. Can’t figure out why it would go up that much, when it is a less expensive car. I would also need to add a wall charger and also snow tires for the winter. Snow tires are a wash though, as they make your regular tires last longer.
 
That was really helpful. I had no idea EV suffered so much in the winter. Sure hope this improves as technology improves, as that is a massive loss. Thanks for posting.

Glad to help! But not much room for improvement unfortunately. If there is, it would be something revolutionary and we'd be using it everywhere! The problem even with the more efficient Model Y heating (heat pump) is there is basically very very little waste heat to move into the cabin. That's why being hot off a Supercharger would actually be useful, since the battery will be quite warm and that warmth can be moved to the cabin. More daily non-charging waste heat is really only available if the drivetrain is less efficient, which just means we'd have reduced range anyways. Cold just kinda sucks because everything needs to be a bit warm to operate properly.

That said, the heat pump should be incredibly useful for the 10C/50F area of temperature. Surprisingly, significant heating is still required at this point (I'd say about 20-25% loss compared to rated range for Model 3), but a heat pump can heat the cabin much more efficiently in these conditions to my understanding. I really hope they bring the heat pump to Model 3.

(A heat pump in my layman's understanding is basically a fairly efficient heat-mover: this is what air-conditioning normally is, but the same principle can be used for heating. For air-conditioning you're discharging the heat to the outside air. You can't just discharge the "cold" from the cabin as easily for heating, because you'd end up with a block of ice, so you need to either generate the heat less efficiently [Model Y can do this too] or pull from waste heat).
 
In your situation, I'd heartily recommend the Outback. We are all in on Tesla in our family, owning no ICE cars, but having owned an Outback and knowing how cold affects EV range, you're better off with an Outback until your situational charging infrastructure improves.
 
I have both a Model 3 and a 2019 Outback 3.6 Limited. The Outback gets about 27 mpg on the freeway year round, but more like 23 mpg around town. My wife drives it more than I do, so it's not a "lead foot" issue, for sure. That being said, we got a little snow in our area earlier this year and the Tesla did just OK in it, but the Outback never even gave us a moment of worry. If you're not going too fast in the Tesla it'd be just fine, won't slip around too much and will be OK in snow that isn't too deep. The range will definitely take a hit as you'll be running the heater to keep the windows from fogging up, but you should still get 200-220ish total out of a full charge. The Subaru on the other hand, you can crank up that heat and the heated seats, drive over much more snow, and you won't have to worry about range at all on long trips. I love both cars, but if you get snow regularly, get the Outback.
 
You might want to check with your car insurance agent on the cost for the M3. Some people have gotten unpleasant surprises with the unexpected high cost of insurance, but it seems to vary widely by company. Before the M3, my wife had an Audi RS3 and the M3 is actually a bit less expensive to insure for us, but it is still more expensive than my Porsche which is crazy.

I live in Ohio an just received my Model Y VIN number today. Currently I drive a Mazda CX5 AWD Grand Touring. I checked with Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. who currently has my coverage, it is going to be a $150/yr. increase over my 2013 Mazda CX-5 to insure my brand new Model Y AWD.

A brand new Model 3, AWD is $42,690 plus $1,200 delivery puts you at $43,890. A 2020 Subaru Premium is $28,895 which is a difference of $14,995... If you keep your cars roughtly 8 years (judging by your information) you will save $22,400 in Fuel and Oil changes. I am retired and all of my money is in investments. I would never pull the $63,000 that I paid for my Model Y out of my investments when I can conserve the capital finance it for less than 2.5% through a Tesla arranged. The growth on the $63,000 makes almost have of the car payment...

Some Insurance companies numbers are nuts.... Check around....
 
Haven't read though all the replies yet, so sorry if I'm doubling up on info.

We compared the long-term cost of ownership for an LR AWD Model 3 vs. a Subaru Crosstrek (probably a bit cheaper but also more efficient, I'll get into that) in Excel heavily before getting the Model 3. We do a lot of rural driving (really need max range), highway commuting, would really prefer AWD, and like smaller vehicles. I also do all my own oil changes etc., but don't really go through brakes (we're gentle drivers that use gearing more than friction brakes to slow down). My wife is very much from "drive it 'til it dies" background, so this wasn't a light decision (thus the Excel sheet!). So I feel like we're similar in some regards here. Keep in mind I compared new-to-new though, not used. Worth noting that Model 3 has high resale value, so a used Model 3 vs. a used Subaru might technically make the Model 3 look worse than new comparisons.

If you want more the details (but I'll summarize here), check out my old thread: Is a Model 3 really cheaper?: A simplified analysis from an owner. The takeaway is that you should buy the Tesla if you have some motivator beyond cost.

Even with very expensive gas prices but relatively decent electricity rates, my calculated break-even point is about 14 years. I think this is more than I mentioned in that thread, because I've now accounted for some things I didn't know at the time (e.g. all charging inefficiencies, insurance, more pessimistic about Winter efficiency). At this point I expect some random catastrophic failure from either vehicle and I just can't predict the cost of that, so I basically will call it even long term. The costs all vary by your gas prices, your electricity rates, and your insurance rates. But at the end of the day, the multiple-thousand dollar differences between the vehicles does take quite some time to catch up. There's actually not a lot of difference in this regard when comparing my cheap electricity vs. your somewhat free electricity! But you do have much cheaper gas, which tilts favour to the Subaru.

I'd make the following observations about Tesla vs. Subaru:
  • Model 3 AWD isn't AWD. The front motor engagement is rare and weak. It'll help remove you if you're stuck or help you accelerate faster than everyone else from red light. But it is a primarily RWD car, and behaves a lot like one albeit with decent response to traction loss.
  • Subaru actually has more usable assistance goodies like Rear Cross Traffic Alert that Tesla doesn't have. You may prefer these over things like AutoPilot/AutoSteer which will be of limited or no use in snow or more rural roads.
  • If the nearest Service center is more than 2h away (especially if Subaru is closer), this becomes painful. Mobile Service is not available everywhere. You often cannot bring a Tesla to any ol' garage with the issues I've seen on here (EV-specific failures).
  • Model Y (not 3) has a better mode for snow conditions that uses both motors. I think it's the off-road mode or something.
As for upcoming EVs, I've been keeping an eye on Volkswagen. They actually seem relatively competent and will have stuff coming to North America soon (you may need to wait a year or two extra depending on what model you desire).

As for your longer day commute, no. Absolutely not, not without incredible risk and anxiety. You need a charge stop in between. On bad Winter days, I get 40% less compared to rated range. Everyone who tells you "just don't use the heat" is so wrong - you need to see out the windshield (it doesn't get heat from an ICE!) and your needs your unfrozen limbs/digits to operate the vehicle. For an average Winter day, I get about 30% less compared to rated - for a 310mi range LR AWD, that's only 217mi of range from 100% to 0%.

This is what I recommend when counting practical EV range:
  • For daily operation, assume you use the 10-90% segment of the battery for best battery health. (effectively 80% usable capacity; 310*0.8 == 248mi practical daily rated range)
  • For average Winter operation around freezing temps, take off 30% from your usable capacity. 173mi usable range in freezing Winter conditions.
  • For nastier Winter operation (-10C or 14F), take 40% off. That would be 149mi usable range.
See how quickly 310 rated miles can go to 150 real-world miles? Heating is expensive!

We're not sure how much better the Model Y will be. To my understanding, for daily driving, if below freezing temps, not much better actually. However if you have a hot battery just off of a Supercharger session, it can pull heat from that for quite a while. It might also do well at about 10C/50F ambient temps (Spring/Fall mornings?).

As for running it until it dies, I'll do my usual and counter the fan ideas here. Elon says the LR battery is good for about 1500 cycles, which he expects is 500,000mi. That is best-case scenario. The battery cares about kWh used, not miles. So heating, usage of Sentry mode, standby usage, personal driving efficiency, etc. all take away from that 500,000mi figure. Just something to keep in mind.

Last note, if you go for an EV, get a 240V charging setup for sure. We did OK on 120V and keeping it always charging when home (120km commute every day), but it was barely enough and also far less efficient. Your commutes are longer, and you really need to charge a lot to have the freedom to just decide to go somewhere else (unless you can rely on a Supercharger or CHAdeMO station [adapter required]). We had to use public charging a lot, which I'm sure the local coffee shop and lunch spot appreciated :D

Sounds good. Looks like you found your own answer. I would get the turbocharged outback. I came from only owning Subarus.
 
I have a fairly lengthy commute (110 miles 3 days a week and 230 miles one day a week). Can I expect the M3 LR AWD to make that 230 mile drive in the winter without any range issues?
I figure the outback would get around 28 mpg so that's about $2500/year on gas at $2.5 per gallon, or about $200 a month. Add in 5 oil changes a year at $35 each (I always do my own oil changes with whichever full synthetic oil is on special) so that's another $175 plus brakes and filters and other things should get me close to $2800 a year to operate the Outback. I feel like the numbers are getting me close on the M3 (assuming a can find a slightly used one LR AWD for $35-40k) unless I'm forgetting something, which is why I am here.
Thanks

OP, have you considered a Rav4 Hybrid?
 
I can't see myself buying anything that doesn't plug in. The main reason I installed this much solar was to offset another EV. Right now we are giving electricity away to the utility company every day the sun shines. And not just a little -- on a sunny day we produce more than double what we consume.
I should add that the picture I posted was mostly to illustrate the hill. That much snow is unusual for this area. Luckily we did have the Subaru when that 20" snow fell.
The idea of comparing the m3 to the outback was mainly to help convince my wife that buying a car like the m3 can be financially reasonable. Right now I'm thinking I'll likely try to squeeze one more year out of the Prius. I feel like the used m3 market should be more buyer friendly next year. Then if I'm still making that 230 mile commute next year I'll just drive the volt that one day a week.
Everyone has been very helpful here. Possibly the most responsive forum I've ever visited. Thanks.
 
Model 3 AWD isn't AWD. The front motor engagement is rare and weak. It'll help remove you if you're stuck or help you accelerate faster than everyone else from red light. But it is a primarily RWD car, and behaves a lot like one albeit with decent response to traction loss.

I was a bit critical to Model 3's AWD my first 2018-19 winter. Sometimes the car would find amazing traction and best other similar weight/size cars. However, sometimes I was not confident driving uphill on compacted snow the same speed as other cars around me, and that never happened to me as I was used to dominate snowy roads on all my previous cars: Audi S4 (still current, same clearance), Acura RDX, Subaru Outback.
After upgrading to V10 software last year the Model 3's AWD dynamics subtly changed and I was very confident driving cold, snowy and slippery roads this past winter. Had no complaints. In fact, the car saved me from a collision when on a very slippery road a trailer swung when behind a truck that lost traction.

82099947_10156461541670764_575771319858102272_o.jpg


I imagine you made your statements based on how you feel the front engages but it is far from what I feel. Technically there's no reason for Tesla to not be able to distribute the torque between front and rear perfectly.
 
Model 3 AWD isn't AWD. The front motor engagement is rare and weak. It'll help remove you if you're stuck or help you accelerate faster than everyone else from red light. But it is a primarily RWD car, and behaves a lot like one albeit with decent response to traction loss.

This video shows that the front engages as needed in the snow, and is neither rare, nor weak:
It is what convinced me to get the AWD Model 3. (If I had known about the Acceleration Boost before I bought it, that would have also been a swing factor).