Haven't read though all the replies yet, so sorry if I'm doubling up on info.
We compared the long-term cost of ownership for an LR AWD Model 3 vs. a Subaru
Crosstrek (probably a bit cheaper but also more efficient, I'll get into that) in Excel heavily before getting the Model 3. We do a lot of rural driving (really need max range), highway commuting, would really prefer AWD, and like smaller vehicles. I also do all my own oil changes etc., but don't really go through brakes (we're gentle drivers that use gearing more than friction brakes to slow down). My wife is very much from "drive it 'til it dies" background, so this wasn't a light decision (thus the Excel sheet!). So I feel like we're similar in some regards here. Keep in mind I compared new-to-new though, not used. Worth noting that Model 3 has high resale value, so a used Model 3 vs. a used Subaru might technically make the Model 3 look worse than new comparisons.
If you want
more the details (but I'll summarize here), check out my old thread:
Is a Model 3 really cheaper?: A simplified analysis from an owner.
The takeaway is that you should buy the Tesla if you have some motivator beyond cost.
Even with very expensive gas prices but relatively decent electricity rates, my calculated break-even point is about 14 years. I think this is more than I mentioned in that thread, because I've now accounted for some things I didn't know at the time (e.g. all charging inefficiencies, insurance, more pessimistic about Winter efficiency). At this point I expect some random catastrophic failure from either vehicle and I just
can't predict the cost of that, so I basically will call it even long term. The costs all vary by
your gas prices,
your electricity rates, and
your insurance rates. But at the end of the day, the multiple-thousand dollar differences between the vehicles does take quite some time to catch up. There's actually not a lot of difference in this regard when comparing my cheap electricity vs. your somewhat free electricity! But you do have much cheaper gas, which tilts favour to the Subaru.
I'd make the following observations about Tesla vs. Subaru:
- Model 3 AWD isn't AWD. The front motor engagement is rare and weak. It'll help remove you if you're stuck or help you accelerate faster than everyone else from red light. But it is a primarily RWD car, and behaves a lot like one albeit with decent response to traction loss.
- Subaru actually has more usable assistance goodies like Rear Cross Traffic Alert that Tesla doesn't have. You may prefer these over things like AutoPilot/AutoSteer which will be of limited or no use in snow or more rural roads.
- If the nearest Service center is more than 2h away (especially if Subaru is closer), this becomes painful. Mobile Service is not available everywhere. You often cannot bring a Tesla to any ol' garage with the issues I've seen on here (EV-specific failures).
- Model Y (not 3) has a better mode for snow conditions that uses both motors. I think it's the off-road mode or something.
As for upcoming EVs, I've been keeping an eye on Volkswagen. They actually seem relatively competent and will have stuff coming to North America soon (you may need to wait a year or two extra depending on what model you desire).
As for your longer day commute,
no. Absolutely not, not without incredible risk and anxiety.
You need a charge stop in between. On bad Winter days, I get 40% less compared to rated range. Everyone who tells you "just don't use the heat" is so wrong - you need to see out the windshield (it doesn't get heat from an ICE!) and your needs your unfrozen limbs/digits to operate the vehicle. For an
average Winter day, I get about 30% less compared to rated - for a 310mi range LR AWD, that's only 217mi of range from 100% to 0%.
This is what I recommend when counting practical EV range:
- For daily operation, assume you use the 10-90% segment of the battery for best battery health. (effectively 80% usable capacity; 310*0.8 == 248mi practical daily rated range)
- For average Winter operation around freezing temps, take off 30% from your usable capacity. 173mi usable range in freezing Winter conditions.
- For nastier Winter operation (-10C or 14F), take 40% off. That would be 149mi usable range.
See how quickly 310 rated miles can go to 150 real-world miles? Heating is expensive!
We're not sure how much better the Model Y will be. To my understanding, for daily driving, if below freezing temps, not much better actually. However if you have a hot battery just off of a Supercharger session, it can pull heat from that for quite a while. It might also do well at about 10C/50F ambient temps (Spring/Fall mornings?).
As for running it until it dies, I'll do my usual and counter the fan ideas here. Elon says the LR battery is good for about 1500 cycles, which he expects is 500,000mi. That is best-case scenario. The battery cares about kWh used, not miles. So heating, usage of Sentry mode, standby usage, personal driving efficiency, etc. all take away from that 500,000mi figure. Just something to keep in mind.
Last note, if you go for an EV, get a 240V charging setup for sure. We did OK on 120V and keeping it always charging when home (120km commute every day), but it was barely enough and also far less efficient. Your commutes are longer, and you really need to charge a lot to have the freedom to just decide to go somewhere else (unless you can rely on a Supercharger or CHAdeMO station [adapter required]). We had to use public charging a lot, which I'm sure the local coffee shop and lunch spot appreciated