Some theoretical numbers:
Say I put 1.3kW of PV panels on a unshaded 34 degree tilt due south roof in my area, connected to a 1 kW inverter. Per PVWatts (I used 10% system losses and 98% inverter efficiency; could use some pointers to know if those inputs are reasonable) that system is expected to generate 2150 kWh per year.
Now if the $0.05/kWh exported average I read is accurate (didn't look into that), and if the $8/kW monthly charge is based on inverter size, then exporting all that energy would generate $12/year ($108 - $96).
Obviously it makes no economic sense to install 1 DC W of PV panels at a cost of $2-$3 to get a return of $0.01/year over the life of the panels. So the value of PV will be solely in the avoided costs from reduced electricity import when the PV energy is consumed behind the meter.
Then if at least 1/9 of the generated energy is consumed behind the meter, the $8/kW monthly charge will outweigh the value of any energy exported. Thus, as referenced in post #140 above, if interconnecting with a non-export agreement is a way to avoid the $8/kW monthly charge, it will be advantageous to do so, and simply generate less PV energy.
In other words, the proposal appears to provide an economic incentive for reduced PV exports, which I'm pretty sure is a net negative for the state.
Cheers, Wayne
Hi Wayne, a couple of thoughts for you.
One) where did you read this $0.05 kWh equivalence for the $8 per kW per month access charge?
I gave a weird example yesterday of my own system actually used PG&E's grid to move a total kWh in one month. Assuming my Powerwalls are
not included in the monthly access charge, then my hypothetical calculation was that the monthly access charge would be $0.05 per kWh I moved to and from the grid.
But I don't think I've seen anywhere else mention the $8 per kW per month kind of works out to $0.05 per kWh transported. I would be interested to learn if someone else is coming up with that hypothetical burdened value on a per kWh transported basis.
Two) I agree with you that there appears no reasonable way for a solar-only household that only uses 1/9 of contemporaneously generated solar power behind the meter to make any sense of a PV install.
However, there is an angle of NEM 3 that few are talking about. The joint IOUs have structured their NEM 3.0 proposal (and now the CPUC's proposal) in such a way as to discourage the creation of a system that offsets 100% of home loads. You can see in the Appendix B of the CPUC proposal that the systems sized to only 50% of load have a much shorter payback.
Basically PG&E has posited that NEM 3.0 will continue to encourage solar adoption, but only small-ish arrays where maybe 2/3 of the contemporaneously generated solar power is immediately consumed behind the meter. This way the...
a) $8 per month is spread across a much smaller amount of kW-AC.
b) the homeowner gets to save by paying less during the daytime
c) the homeowner is encouraged to reduce energy consumption from 6pm to 9pm per the TOU policies
Personally I think this is all a load of BS. But it is the way that PG&E has explained why their ROI calculator is "right." The law that says new housing needs solar doesn't say it needs solar to offset 100% of usage. The NEM 3.0 policies proposed so far would basically work against the spirit of the law that was passed to encourage solar adoption. And somehow the CPUC thinks this is the right move. Sad.
TLDR PG&E wants people to adopt new systems that only offset 25% or 50% of annual usage. They want to discourage anyone who tries to offset 100% (or more) of their annual usage.