CPUC NEM 3.0 discussion

[wwu123]

It doesn't seem like CPUC is taking into consideration that residential solar has capital costs, I don't think they really care whether it's $2/w now, or $4-8/w that current owners may have paid in the last 10 years. While I don't profess to know what the right balance of costs is for different ratepayers, the reality is that these measure would pretty much kill future solar installations, and then there will be no more new solar owners to "subsidize" non-solar users, or vice versa. Then making the fees here actually moot for new solar owners, as there wouldn't be any.

We can look at Nevada, they had the same arguments in 2015 “when non-solar residential customers are said to be subsidizing those without solar for using NV Energy’s grid.” They killed NEM outright, with no grandfathering, in 2015, and residential solar installs died within two years - so much so that they brought back a NEM successor in 2017. You can see the impact of both years in the graph:

 

[h2ofun]

The details are in my earlier post. If you don't believe my statement that "the only part of [the Order] that references NEM1 and NEM2 is item 12," you can look at the proposed decision yourself:

https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M430/K903/430903088.PDF

That, of course, may differ, but hopefully not for the worse.

Cheers, Wayne

I am not saying you are wrong, but they are not done and things are not heading in the right direction. So, I am trying to plan options for worse case.

Even if you are right, trying to see my house with a 240 buck per month fixed cost on the roof is not attractive to anyone, IMO. Right now I am no longer recommending to anyone to get solar.

 

[holeydonut]

I am not saying you are wrong, but they are not done and things are not heading in the right direction. So, I am trying to plan options for worse case.

Even if you are right, trying to see my house with a 240 buck per month fixed cost on the roof is not attractive to anyone, IMO. Right now I am no longer recommending to anyone to get solar.

In 2035 when you could be getting hit with a $240 per month (or possibly $456 per month since they could include your 5x batteries in the size/fee), your electricity bill will probably be over $1,000 without solar and batteries. So, you're still coming out 'ahead' in some weird draconian way even with the obnoxious fees.

What troubles me is how the vast majority of California's have been experiencing the boiling-frog BS where their energy prices are going up at an alarming clip and yet they don't seem to care. California (non-CARE) customers have like 4x the national average for non-income-assisted energy. But all these millions of people have been gaslit by PG&E to think this is normal.

And PG&E wants to increase energy by another 25% over the next 4 years. The vast majority of Californians have for some reason just accepted the reality that they're on pace for 4-digit monthly electricity bills in a decade or so.

 

[Merrill]

The other issue I have is California has in the past been one of the most progressive states in the Union, if this happens we will be going in the wrong direction. Hard to believe that Newsom is on board with this it would be nice to know where he stands with this. I got no feed back from the emails and calls.

 

[RKCRLR]

I'm in agreement that solar under NEM1/NEM2 is lopsided and results in lower income people that can't afford solar or don't have their own home to pay disproportionately more for their energy. But NEM3 goes too far.

I understand the need to provide a "storage charge" to support the grid infrastructure but is should be based on how much you actually send to the grid for "storage" proportional to the impact on the infrastructure, not an arbitrary connection fee based on your solar size regardless of how much you produce.

When I made the decision to invest in solar it was based on an ROI under the rules in place at the time. I may have made a different decision for the best place for me to invest if I had known the rules were going to be changed after I made the commitment. The government taketh your money and it is up to you to find ways get some of it back. The government was in a big rush to incentivize solar and it looks like they are regretting the decisions they made.

I made an investment based on a commitment to have NEM2 cost structure in place for 20 years. If they renege on their commitment it will be the last time I voluntarily participate in or vote in support of anything that relies the government doing what it says it is going to do no matter how good the cause. This would be the last straw.

 

[h2ofun]

In 2035 when you could be getting hit with a $240 per month (or possibly $456 per month since they could include your 5x batteries in the size/fee), your electricity bill will probably be over $1,000 without solar and batteries. So, you're still coming out 'ahead' in some weird draconian way even with the obnoxious fees.

What troubles me is how the vast majority of California's have been experiencing the boiling-frog BS where their energy prices are going up at an alarming clip and yet they don't seem to care. California (non-CARE) customers have like 4x the national average for non-income-assisted energy. But all these millions of people have been gaslit by PG&E to think this is normal.

And PG&E wants to increase energy by another 25% over the next 4 years. The vast majority of Californians have for some reason just accepted the reality that they're on pace for 4-digit monthly electricity bills in a decade or so.

There is zero advantage having solar if the credits are wholesale, AND 8 bucks per kw. I have not done a spread sheet, but seems it might still be cheaper to 100% disconnect my solar from grid export, and save 3000 or more per year? Am I wrong, how about a spread sheet with some numbers?

 

[holeydonut]

There is zero advantage having solar if the credits are wholesale, AND 8 bucks per kw. I have not done a spread sheet, but seems it might still be cheaper to 100% disconnect my solar from grid export, and save 3000 or more per year? Am I wrong, how about a spread sheet with some numbers?

You're missing the most important aspect which is the noontime production (when grid export is lowest value) should be the time you're banking suds (I forget who called it suds; I like suds) in your batteries for use later.

In a decade, you could expect EVs to be V2H capable and battery prices continue to drop. If you look at the pace that the private sector has innovated energy solutions, it is realistic that will be able to take your entire EV charging setup and some home loads off-grid.

Assuming this CPUC proposal goes through as is; you are highly knowledgeable of real emergent demand/need. I'm 99% sure your conviction + @wwhitney 's expertise could find some workable solution for you. And imagine if you made a business out of this since you know there are millions of homeowners that would want this type of solution as they peel off their old NEM.

You have 14 years to work on solving a real need. Time to get started man.

Or just be like me and @jjrandorin and plan on moving out of this state in 15 years.

 

[h2ofun]

You're missing the most important aspect which is the noontime production (when grid export is lowest value) should be the time you're banking suds (I forget who called it suds; I like suds) in your batteries for use later.

In a decade, you could expect EVs to be V2H capable and battery prices continue to drop. If you look at the pace that the private sector has innovated energy solutions, it is realistic that will be able to take your entire EV charging setup and some home loads off-grid.

Assuming this CPUC proposal goes through as is; you are highly knowledgeable of real emergent demand/need. I'm 99% sure your conviction + @wwhitney 's expertise could find some workable solution for you. And imagine if you made a business out of this since you know there are millions of homeowners that would want this type of solution as they peel off their old NEM.

You have 14 years to work on solving a real need. Time to get started man.

Or just be like me and @jjrandorin and plan on moving out of this state in 15 years.

Again, I will believe the 14 years nothing changes when I see the final vote of the CPUC. Until them, looking at options. BUT, telling folks to not get solar anymore

 

[getakey]

I'm in agreement that solar under NEM1/NEM2 is lopsided and results in lower income people that can't afford solar or don't have their own home to pay disproportionately more for their energy. But NEM3 goes too far.

I understand the need to provide a "storage charge" to support the grid infrastructure but is should be based on how much you actually send to the grid for "storage" proportional to the impact on the infrastructure, not an arbitrary connection fee based on your solar size regardless of how much you produce.

When I made the decision to invest in solar it was based on an ROI under the rules in place at the time. I may have made a different decision for the best place for me to invest if I had known the rules were going to be changed after I made the commitment. The government taketh your money and it is up to you to find ways get some of it back. The government was in a big rush to incentivize solar and it looks like they are regretting the decisions they made.

I made an investment based on a commitment to have NEM2 cost structure in place for 20 years. If they renege on their commitment it will be the last time I voluntarily participate in or vote in support of anything that relies the government doing what it says it is going to do no matter how good the cause. This would be the last straw.

Totally agree. I cannot see any ROI for a new solar system using NEM3

 

[holeydonut]

Again, I will believe the 14 years nothing changes when I see the final vote of the CPUC. Until them, looking at options. BUT, telling folks to not get solar anymore

The only thing in the latest rulemaking proposal on modifying NEM 1 and NEM 2 is changing their maximum grandfathering from 20 to 15 years. I get it that you're worried the CPUC would actually make things worse in the coming weeks since the old AB-1139 (Gonzalez) threatened to reduce grandfathering to 10 years.

But at this time, such a change wiping out legacy NEM grandfathering below 15 years in the final NEM 3 seems unlikely. The CPUC has basically handed the IOUs and handed non-residential (like Wal-Mart who sought beneficial VNEM policy and no grid access fees) everything they wanted.

It's now up to the general public and residential solar rights advocates to try and pull the CPUC to a middle ground by having non-residential pay more and by having PG&E screw us all less.

 

[brian.c]

Again, I will believe the 14 years nothing changes when I see the final vote of the CPUC. Until them, looking at options. BUT, telling folks to not get solar anymore

I think at this point, we can't trust the 15yr grandfathering... So in 2 years when they need more money, they change again to 10yr... If you are planning solar now, cancel and wait until there are protections put in place keeping them from changing the rules later.

 

[h2ofun]

The only thing in the latest rulemaking proposal on modifying NEM 1 and NEM 2 is changing their maximum grandfathering from 20 to 15 years. I get it that you're worried the CPUC would actually make things worse in the coming weeks since the old AB-1139 (Gonzalez) threatened to reduce grandfathering to 10 years.

But at this time, such a change wiping out legacy NEM grandfathering below 15 years in the final NEM 3 seems unlikely. The CPUC has basically handed the IOUs and handed non-residential (like Wal-Mart who sought beneficial VNEM policy and no grid access fees) everything they wanted.

It's now up to the general public and residential solar rights advocates to try and pull the CPUC to a middle ground by having non-residential pay more and by having PG&E screw us all less.

Am not worried about the 15 years. Am worried about when the 8 bucks start, and when the exports basically only get wholesale cost

 

[h2ofun]

I think at this point, we can't trust the 15yr grandfathering... So in 2 years when they need more money, they change again to 10yr... If you are planning solar now, cancel and wait until there are protections put in place keeping them from changing the rules later.

Yep, which again is why I am just starting to ask, if needed, could we get a fw upgrade to the GW which stops ALL exporting, so I could go back to PGE and eliminate my solar PTO with them, if needed. Yep, I have zero trust that calif really cars about being green. I spent TOO much money, and now this. Again, where are all the green folks saying this is great, go to total solar, etc.?

 

[wwu123]

I'm in agreement that solar under NEM1/NEM2 is lopsided and results in lower income people that can't afford solar or don't have their own home to pay disproportionately more for their energy. But NEM3 goes too far.

I guess in some ways, the infrequent revisions of NEM couldn't fairly account for the rapid drop in cost of solar installs. If you halve the installation cost, you halve the payback period, and double the ROI (roughly). Installed per-watt costs dropped from $7.5/watt in 2010 to half that by 2014. Then from 2014 to present, by almost another 50% if you use Tesla's $2/watt pricing. This has made it more lopsided or less lopsided depending on what you paid and when you paid it.

The utilities have compensated a bit by flattening tiers and shifting TOU periods, but it doesn't overcome the drop in costs

The NEM3 propsal swings it back towards non-solar, perhaps too far, but who can predict whether future cost drops might swing it to a more equitable balance?

 

[brian.c]

Yep, which again is why I am just starting to ask, if needed, could we get a fw upgrade to the GW which stops ALL exporting, so I could go back to PGE and eliminate my solar PTO with them, if needed. Yep, I have zero trust that calif really cars about being green. I spent TOO much money, and now this. Again, where are all the green folks saying this is great, go to total solar, etc.?

I had been pricing out new all electric appliances, not anymore. New electric heater for the pool, not anymore.

 

[h2ofun]

I had been pricing out new all electric appliances, not anymore. New electric heater for the pool, not anymore.

Smart!

 

[h2ofun]

I guess in some ways, the infrequent revisions of NEM couldn't fairly account for the rapid drop in cost of solar installs. If you halve the installation cost, you halve the payback period, and double the ROI (roughly). Installed per-watt costs dropped from $7.5/watt in 2010 to half that by 2014. Then from 2014 to present, by almost another 50% if you use Tesla's $2/watt pricing. This has made it more lopsided or less lopsided depending on what you paid and when you paid it.

The utilities have compensated a bit by flattening tiers and shifting TOU periods, but it doesn't overcome the drop in costs

The NEM3 propsal swings it back towards non-solar, perhaps too far, but who can predict whether future cost drops might swing it to a more equitable balance?

Even at the lower prices, what it cost me to put 30Kw of solar on was NUTS! Thought I was trying to be a good green citizen. I guess not.

 

[skepticcyclist]

Just encouraging more who already have solar to go with gas over electric (if possible.) Imagine how much more will be exported if everyone with all electric appliances switched them over to gas (water heater, clothes drier, stove/range, furnace, pool/spa heater, and etc..)

 

[wwhitney]

And how much warmer the planet will be!

(Not much, actually, but still a step in the wrong direction. Keep replacing gas appliances at end of life with electric.)

Cheers, Wayne

 

[Merrill]

It is hard for me to understand what California is doing, let’s require solar on new builds and some cities have banned gas hookups then let’s penalize solar.