CPUC NEM 3.0 discussion

[sunwarriors]

More doom and gloom:

Insurer: 75% of California rooftop solar companies are high risk, more bankruptcy on the way

Solar Insure told <b>pv magazine USA</b> the financial stability of rooftop solar companies operating in California is in question. Despite this, California reaffirmed recent anti-solar decisions in a recent appeals court hearing.

pv-magazine-usa.com

This article has a link to the rental/school building rule so yeah, they aren't helping the "poor" people neither for anyone who actually believes the rich vs. poor narrative.

"The market conditions have led to a rise in “grid defection,” where customers cut the cord and rely on their own solar assets to power their home. As solar equipment costs inherently go down over time, grid defection could represent an existential threat to private utilities. Current legislation makes it very difficult to defect from the grid, and CPUC’s pro-utility attitude could likely place this at risk for being legislated out in the future, further placing Californians at the mercy of rising utility prices."

(bold/size increase added by me)


From:

https://www.reddit.com/r/solar/comments/18omsrg

 

[cali8484]

"The market conditions have led to a rise in “grid defection,” where customers cut the cord and rely on their own solar assets to power their home. As solar equipment costs inherently go down over time, grid defection could represent an existential threat to private utilities. Current legislation makes it very difficult to defect from the grid, and CPUC’s pro-utility attitude could likely place this at risk for being legislated out in the future, further placing Californians at the mercy of rising utility prices."

(bold/size increase added by me)

More proof the CPUC is the key problem. The IOU's have always been greedy but the big change recently is that CPUC has become more pro-utility than ever.

Is there any history of successful rate payer driven changes/removal of CPUC members?

Anyone aware of orgs like TURN (TURN) having any past success?

 

[BGbreeder]

I think that over the years TURN and its affiliates have chalked up a fair number of successes, but consumer vs. utility disputes are very much David and Goliath in terms of resources, with high dollar advertising campaigns often able to win in the short term.

The current proposals do get utilities extra income, but making power cheaper/kWh, disincentivizing small scale solar and storage, while imposing a per customer fee that is highly regressive seems so sub-optimal.

I am confident that changes will be made, Nevada being a good example, but I think that "how soon?" is a "who the heck knows?"...

I do think that there are very real challenges of how to provide stable power to customers as production shifts from large scale fossilfuel and nuclear plants toward variable renewable supplies, in particular how to pay for the transition, and how to pay for the maintenance of the grid scale transmission and distribution costs. Having customers switch to larger and larger demands as electrical cooking, hot water, heating and cooling and EV charge demands add to the systemwide loads is not simple, and adds to the complexity.

I would spare some thoughts and sympathies for the folks trying to plan 30-50 years out in the face of all of these changes (and more, including changing state and federal legislation) trying to figure out solutions what might be viable, what might be cost effective, and what could enhance stability/reliability. That is an N-dimensional chess game.

All the best,

BG

 

[cali8484]

I think that over the years TURN and its affiliates have chalked up a fair number of successes, but consumer vs. utility disputes are very much David and Goliath in terms of resources, with high dollar advertising campaigns often able to win in the short term.

Yeah, have never seen so many PG&E TV ads/propaganda running constantly ... guess that's another reason for the rate hikes ...

 

[charlesj]

More proof the CPUC is the key problem. The IOU's have always been greedy but the big change recently is that CPUC has become more pro-utility than ever.

Is there any history of successful rate payer driven changes/removal of CPUC members?

Anyone aware of orgs like TURN (TURN) having any past success?

If I recall, TURN was not keen on solar and pushed how unfair it was to lower income folks. I was a member for many years but left when they were against solar and favored NEM3, as best I recall.

 

[getakey]

as expected

https://deal.town/the-mercury-news/the-rooftop-solar-industry-blames-pgande-and-gov-gavin-newsom-as-bay-area-businesses-struggle-FKBDU58TE

 

[miimura]

Most solar installers smartly stretched out the bubble of business from the rush to get in before the NEM 2 cutoff. I signed a contract for new solar on Nov 30th 2022, got all the permits and PG&E application completed in March 2023 and was finally installed in September 2023. Between the NEM change and the 2024 rate increase, I sure am glad that I committed to the solar expansion when I did.

 

[getakey]

Most solar installers smartly stretched out the bubble of business from the rush to get in before the NEM 2 cutoff. I signed a contract for new solar on Nov 30th 2022, got all the permits and PG&E application completed in March 2023 and was finally installed in September 2023. Between the NEM change and the 2024 rate increase, I sure am glad that I committed to the solar expansion when I did.

I'm in Sacramento area and installlers are still claiming a 7 year payback under NEM3

 

[sunwarriors]

It's be nice if some of the installers here honestly share how things are right now.

I'm biased as I honestly state about this whole NEM3.0 thing so even with these articles, it would be nice to hear real folks here if it's had an effect on their own business. There was obviously the rush prior to Apr 2023 and backlog.

I don't see how it can't have an effect, but you all know, the media/bias/headline grabbing articles/etc.

 

[MountainRatMat]

It's be nice if some of the installers here honestly share how things are right now.

I'm biased as I honestly state about this whole NEM3.0 thing so even with these articles, it would be nice to hear real folks here if it's had an effect on their own business. There was obviously the rush prior to Apr 2023 and backlog.

I don't see how it can't have an effect, but you all know, the media/bias/headline grabbing articles/etc.

Purely anecdotal but I personally have a lot fewer solar door-to-door salesman in my neighborhood since NEM3.0 was established.

 

[getakey]

The Complete List of Solar Bankruptcies and Business Closures

2023 has brought immense challenges, with higher interest rates, tighter financing, and adverse policy shifts which have contributed to solar bankruptcies.

www.solarinsure.com

 

[Redhill_qik]

The Complete List of Solar Bankruptcies and Business Closures

2023 has brought immense challenges, with higher interest rates, tighter financing, and adverse policy shifts which have contributed to solar bankruptcies.

www.solarinsure.com

Everyone is quick to blame NEM 3.0, but is it really NEM 3.0?

List of Major Solar Contractors That Went Out of Business in 2023

• Pink Energy - Blamed Generac for system failures, tons of customer complaints, possible fraud
• MC Solar - Fraudulent and scamming behavior - Florida AG action
• Harness Power - Might not be fraud, but lots of complaints on their work - Solar Reviews, Yelp, CBS
• NM Solar Group - Fraudulent behavior - New Mexico AG Action
• American Solar Advantage - Significant number of complaints - Yelp, BBB
• Kuubix Energy - Significant number of complains, also does business as Fastrac Energy and Good 3nergy - EnergySage
• Erus Energy - Negative reviews BBB, GPB Capital bought Erus in 2016 and has been indicted for fraud
• Infinity Energy - Poor reviews - SolarReviews

Of these 8 companies only 4 actually did work in California and would have been impacted by NEM 3.0. There are another 11 smaller companies that have closed in California. I'm not going to look through the other 11 to see if there are any details on why they closed.

Companies that do good work at reasonable prices with good financial controls should survive. Maybe they need to let go of some crews as the number of installs drop, but that should not crater the entire company.

 

[getakey]

Everyone is quick to blame NEM 3.0, but is it really NEM 3.0?

List of Major Solar Contractors That Went Out of Business in 2023

• Pink Energy - Blamed Generac for system failures, tons of customer complaints, possible fraud
• MC Solar - Fraudulent and scamming behavior - Florida AG action
• Harness Power - Might not be fraud, but lots of complaints on their work - Solar Reviews, Yelp, CBS
• NM Solar Group - Fraudulent behavior - New Mexico AG Action
• American Solar Advantage - Significant number of complaints - Yelp, BBB
• Kuubix Energy - Significant number of complains, also does business as Fastrac Energy and Good 3nergy - EnergySage
• Erus Energy - Negative reviews BBB, GPB Capital bought Erus in 2016 and has been indicted for fraud
• Infinity Energy - Poor reviews - SolarReviews

Of these 8 companies only 4 actually did work in California and would have been impacted by NEM 3.0. There are another 11 smaller companies that have closed in California. I'm not going to look through the other 11 to see if there are any details on why they closed.

Companies that do good work at reasonable prices with good financial controls should survive. Maybe they need to let go of some crews as the number of installs drop, but that should not crater the entire company.

Good analysis and good point, but I think NEM3 is having a big negative impact and the results may not have been seen yet. I'd like to hear from someone that is on NEM3 and what their savings actually is

 

[miimura]

I agree that the Net Billing Tariff will cause many job losses for solar installers, but bankruptcy is either poor management or taking advantage of a financial mechanism in the law.

 

[DP26]

Coupled with the likely/by law change for the big 3 to a monthly access fee and lower kWh, leaves little or no room to save money before the solar hardware gets old. Plus interest or cost of funds, etc.

 

[buckets0fun]

I agree that the Net Billing Tariff will cause many job losses for solar installers, but bankruptcy is either poor management or taking advantage of a financial mechanism in the law.

How do you figure?

Many users / customers cannot justify the longer breakeven that comes from NEM3. Driving down the ability for installers to generate revenue.

Am I missing something you’re eluding to?

 

[miimura]

How do you figure?

Many users / customers cannot justify the longer breakeven that comes from NEM3. Driving down the ability for installers to generate revenue.

Am I missing something you’re eluding to?

I am mostly saying that if the demand evaporates, a well run business will go through an orderly closing, not bankruptcy. BK is only necessary if the business is not well managed or is over leveraged.

 

[h2ofun]

I am mostly saying that if the demand evaporates, a well run business will go through an orderly closing, not bankruptcy. BK is only necessary if the business is not well managed or is over leveraged.

Smart business use bankruptcy, why not?

 

[miimura]

Smart business use bankruptcy, why not?

I was also alluding to that by saying “taking advantage of a financial mechanism in the law”.

 

[mspohr]

Nevada also...