Current Delivery Times

[Arkbird]

Alright folks, the missus has been out and about in the recent days so I've been bored. Decided to crunch the numbers on the pace of this thread's activity since its inception on April 6th.

Takeaways: Our volume seems to have overall increased slightly but a much smaller peak on VIN day in Q3 compared to the beast that was Q2. May 25th was insane...1074 posts! Over this thread's lifetime we're averaging 209 posts per day which spans about 10 pages per day. As each week progresses, we do less work and post here more often. Weekends are slower.

Why'd I do this? I'm a nerd. Also, awhile ago I made a random stab at what page we'd be on come my delivery (hence the page 4000 in my signature). I decided to see if I could get a more "scientific" estimate from the data. Linear seems an okay fit on average, so I went with it. Nothing else came close without overfitting. Given my current EDD my new guess is page 2777 purely based on a visual look at the plot and I like all the sevens.

Full spreadsheet is in the second tab in my EDD spreadsheet (also linked in my signature). I may or may not update it. Depends how bored I am.

Enjoy.
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With this data I'm betting on getting delivery around page 2500 and VIN 315XXX.

 

[collaGOunltd]

Also, awhile ago I made a random stab at what page we'd be on come my delivery (hence the page 4000 in my signature). I decided to see if I could get a more "scientific" estimate from the data. Linear seems an okay fit on average, so I went with it. Nothing else came close without overfitting. Given my current EDD my new guess is page 2777 purely based on a visual look at the plot and I like all the sevens.

I joined this thread on page 913 and took delivery on page 1795 thanks for reminding me to check!! I forget what my initial guess was

 

[collaGOunltd]

With this data I'm betting on getting delivery around page 2500 and VIN 315XXX.

It’s crazy that we really are nearing 300 series VINs!!

 

[loggedout]

With this data I'm betting on getting delivery around page 2500 and VIN 315XXX.

Early on I thought I could hit 420. I think that's a late January build though. Probably 350ish for me.

 

[kjyam99]

Since some people really care about current delivery times and us staying off topic, my EDD hasn't changed in over 4 weeks. Still have had the same EDD since 8/31. Looks like those estimates when you order are pretty accurate as it was originally November when I ordered and my EDD is saying November.

FWIW my original EDD when I ordered on 6/6/21 was mid-July to late August...it was off by a month.

 

[PatrickTM]

Man it looks amazing. Also you are lucky to get the rear door PPF!!! That’s so nice of them to add that. Don’t think any car manufacturers add that without additional price

My 2015 Prius also came with rear door strips of PPF. It was standard, and not something my wife negotiated during her four hour negotiation

 

[srnewby54]

Since some people really care about current delivery times and us staying off topic, my EDD hasn't changed in over 4 weeks. Still have had the same EDD since 8/31. Looks like those estimates when you order are pretty accurate as it was originally November when I ordered and my EDD is saying November.

My original EDD was 11/30-12/20 and my current EDD which has not moved in over a month is 12/13-1/2. Hoping I move back to the original EDD if not earlier, but who knows!

 

[Tes-ty]

Alright, alright, alright...Home delivery in about 5 hrs! Been working with the SA to switch my Tesla financing to cash, with DCU listed, so I could get the rate match. Then switch back to Tesla financing to complete the paperwork. Tesla has been great, so far.

Besides the 1.5 - 2hr hold time with DCU to confirm the loan, it's all coming together.

And then…SA called, “you wanted the MYP white one, right?”.

“No, the MSM MYLR that just got VIN’ed (282xxx) two days ago”

SA, “Oh, that’s still in Freemrn being built today. We’ll deliver it tomorrow afternoon.”

Welcome to Northern California during EOQ, folks!

 

[PatrickTM]

Since some people really care about current delivery times and us staying off topic, my EDD hasn't changed in over 4 weeks. Still have had the same EDD since 8/31. Looks like those estimates when you order are pretty accurate as it was originally November when I ordered and my EDD is saying November.

Same here. If we’re going to have on-topic talk, my EDD disappeared around day 4 and has remained absent. Now day 10. EDD was October, which was clearly wrong since it’s essentially a September order, and new Sep orders were “March” at the time.

Not much to report, not much excitement.

 

[kjyam99]

And then…SA called, “you wanted the MYP white one, right?”.

“No, the MSM MYLR that just got VIN’ed (282xxx) two days ago”

SA, “Oh, that’s still in Freemrn being built today. We’ll deliver it tomorrow afternoon.”

Welcome to Northern California during EOQ, folks!

I talked to the delivery guy and he said his location was delivering 50 cars today..

 

[MY-user]

This is crazy, if you order MYLR now, the delivery is April 2022.

 

[Arkbird]

Same here. If we’re going to have on-topic talk, my EDD disappeared around day 4 and has remained absent. Now day 10. EDD was October, which was clearly wrong since it’s essentially a September order, and new Sep orders were “March” at the time.

Not much to report, not much excitement.

When you took yours off hold, was it for February, March, or April?

 

[Arkbird]

It’s crazy that we really are nearing 300 series VINs!!

Right! I was slowly following production since the beginning but only ever actively following this year when the heated steering wheel was put in. That's when I knew I would be able to get one and that was back in the what 100XXX series VINs?

Early on I thought I could hit 420. I think that's a late January build though. Probably 350ish for me.

Once Giga Texas comes online, I imagine the VINs will really start to shoot up.

FWIW my original EDD when I ordered on 6/6/21 was mid-July to late August...it was off by a month.

Hmm yeah it seemed to start really backing up in the July/August timeframe as if Tesla wasn't expecting the demand + chip shortage.

My original EDD was 11/30-12/20 and my current EDD which has not moved in over a month is 12/13-1/2. Hoping I move back to the original EDD if not earlier, but who knows!

I would love for mine to move up but definitely wouldn't be happy if it moved back at this point. I'm tired of paying for gas and even Sam's and Costco aren't doing it for me.

 

[collaGOunltd]

I'm tired of paying for gas and even Sam's and Costco aren't doing it for me.

Our Sam’s was out of gas this weekend. Not gonna lie, I was feeling a little smug sitting there in the MY

 

[ImperfectTes]

That quick turnaround from VIN to delivery is amazing in California!!!

Like. You’d have to have financing done at lightning speed if you’re not paying cash. It can be done for sure but between filing the form, waiting for the bank to get process it, getting supporting documents if needed. Yikes.

 

[Ayaz]

Typo - Its actually Red ext with White interiors

Your Red/White MY from June order gives me hope.

 

[collaGOunltd]

Like. You’d have to have financing done at lightning speed if you’re not paying cash. It can be done for sure but between filing the form, waiting for the bank to get process it, getting supporting documents if needed. Yikes.

I think Tesla financing would be the way to go in that regard due to the quickness of their determination. It was nearly instant for us both times (initially the day we ordered and then again after we had our VIN because it expired). Refinancing after delivery would be an option if you could get better terms or have a preferred lender.

 

[Oldguywaits]

So what I read from expert analysts on this board: Next month will mostly focus on EU deliveries and maybe US west so for those of us on the east coast with July ODs it will be November. I think it makes sense as EDDs have been pretty much stuck in Nov for many July ODs

 

[boingolover]

So what I read from expert analysts on this board: Next month will mostly focus on EU deliveries and maybe US west so for those of us on the east coast with July ODs it will be November. I think it makes sense as EDDs have been pretty much stuck in Nov for many July ODs

As far as I understand it, Shanghai will be doing EU exports until the factory in Berlin comes online. Also, I think as the end of quarter push ends this week, we may see more uniform distribution of cars after that's over. Seems the last little bit they've been focusing on West Coast.

EDIT: Tesla's Shanghai factory exports 8,210 Model Y cars to Europe in July - Global Times

 

[Arkbird]

Our Sam’s was out of gas this weekend. Not gonna lie, I was feeling a little smug sitting there in the MY

I'm surprised my local one hasn't has this happen. The lines are always super longer but it is the cheapest gas around at $3.50. I know that doesn't compared to you California folks but it still hurts.