While Tesla has floated the idea of a '2170 backup plan' battery pack, they would have done it by now IMHO.I am hoping those of us that get the 2170 models without the new castings are not getting an inferior car. I am guessing the new updated models will be more of a benefit to Tesla and won’t be too noticeable by the consumer.
The 2170 pack is a redesign, and only needed if the 4680 had a significant hiccup in engineering.
They've been waiting on 4680 because most of the cost advantage is with using them, not the 2170, which they buy from Panasonic.
The new MY chassis build v2.0 will be
1) faster and cheaper to manufacture - they keep the profits on the batteries, and the process uses 2/3 the number of robots
2) be lighter by 10% overall (440lbs) - which means they can reduce the battery pack kWh rating if they so choose and still get the range
handling and performance will significantly benefit from that reduction in weight as well
3) potentially have better fit/finish, since the chassis that the body panels are hung on will be more dimensionally consistent (2 castings vs bunches of welded steel stampings)
There are thousands of Front Megacastings stacked up outdoors on the lot at Fremont, and piles already made at Austin.
As I'm sure you know, MY has been being built with the Rear Megacast since spring of 2021.
It looks like spring of 22 introduces the 4680 and the new chassis for it.
Even today, more calibration chassis have been delivered to Austin that exhibit the empty floorpan for a 4680 structural battery pack (the 2170 pack would have a reinforced floorpan).
All this is of course speculation, based on available evidence but speculation nonetheless. Only Tesla knows what how and when, and they're not talking.
The Media frenzy when real evidence emerges will fan the fanboi flames and the order books will get flooded again.