Debating adding FSD to existing order at $10K

[Tam]

Wait…hasn’t Elon previously stated quite emphatically that radar and LiDAR are nonstarters for him/Tesla? That he will ONLY use. Vision for FSD?

Or are there persons here who don’t trust his word?

Trust, but verify.

It's true that a human has 2 eyes while Tesla Vision has 8 cameras so, in theory, it can be superman.

I can verify that Tesla Vision indeed has 8 cameras but so far since the prediction in 2013 that Tesla's way would achieve autonomous driving by the year 2016 has not come true. And that prediction was 9 years ago:

Elon Musk Says Self-Driving Teslas Are Three Years Away

t's a gradual approach that may be exactly what the coming autonomous vehicle segment needs.

www.vice.com

In the meantime, just 1 year prior to that prediction, the year 2012, Google Autonomous Vehicle (now Waymo) already demonstrated that a blind person indeed could ride on a driverless Prius equipped with LIDAR in addition to other sensors.

Waymo has continued to do that since October of 2020 in geofenced Chandler, AZ for the past 2 years or 8 years after the first ride for the blind.

So the technology for collision avoidance has been here with LIDAR for years while Tesla Vision is still risking collisions.

 

[father_of_6]

I believe a safe camera-only system won't happen. Indeed, humans do it with 2 eyes, but our brains are vastly more complex than any software in existence.

Coordinated cameras can detect 3d objects by "reassembling" all of the different angles, but it's not bulletproof. Perhaps a filled in pothole could be misrepresented as a large object sitting in the road.

How was the car allowed to hit that bollard in AI Addict's video? Did it not know there was an object there? With LiDAR, the car wouldn't have to determine if there was an object there, it would 100% know it. There are virtually unlimited edge cases like this. Tesla's current solution is to fallback to the human brain at the very last second. No thanks.

 

[PACEMD]

I am the opposite. After I got the taste of how bad summon and smart summon are, I haven't used it at all. Same with Navigation on Autopilot: It kept making irrational choices by changing lanes then do it again for no obvious reasons so instead of fighting it, I've just turned it off. Same with FSD beta: I've turned it off rather fighting it. So basically I paid more for the privilege of turning it off and I've just been using Autopilot instead. Autopilot has fewer features but it's much more predictable and less crazy.

We all have different experiences, needs, and expectations. For me, FSD/NOA has been generally flawless. I get in my M3P at home and say take me to work 150 miles away or days later take me home. I rarely have to intervene. That alone was more than worth the money, but then I'm not struggling either. Summons is not really a thing.

 

[Tam]

...We all have different experiences, needs, and expectations....

Very true. When someone complains that FSD beta crossed the double yellow lines toward the opposing traffic, there are people who also said the opposite that "mine doesn't".

Mine went the wrong direction of a one-way street at 2 MPH before I manually took over (was resolved with subsequent firmware updates):

But of course, others would say it doesn't happen to them.

When a visitor to an orthopedic ward says that "My bone is not broken" what does that prove? Those broken bone patients are fakes?

When a tire has been working for years then suddenly it got a flat. Someone would say their tires are not flat! What does that prove? Just because 99% trouble-free tire doesn't mean the flat didn't happen to an unlucky person.

 

[Krash]

…do we realistically think that Beta will be opened up for everyone by the end of the year…

Not a chance

…Do we think the subscription price will hold at $199 for some time or do we see steady increases there…

Steady increases

...Would you say the resale value on it is 50%?…

Not 50%. Currently 10% ish.

…No one can know for sure if FSD will hold it's value long term in the used market.

But because it doesn’t hold any value now, you can make a pretty good guess.

 

[PACEMD]

Very true. When someone complains that FSD beta crossed the double yellow lines toward the opposing traffic, there are people who also said the opposite that "mine doesn't".

Mine went the wrong direction of a one-way street at 2 MPH before I manually took over (was resolved with subsequent firmware updates):

But of course, others would say it doesn't happen to them.

When a visitor to an orthopedic ward says that "My bone is not broken" what does that prove? Those broken bone patients are fakes?

When a tire has been working for years then suddenly it got a flat. Someone would say their tires are not flat! What does that prove? Just because 99% trouble-free tire doesn't mean the flat didn't happen to an unlucky person.

So FSD is like an unbroken bone smashed to smithereens or an unflat tire with a hole in it running on the rim? Or something else entirely who in the ham sandwich knows, if everyone doesn't have the exact same experience how on earth can we even survive? You know what I don't dig? When I say I was shot in the head with a bazooka and other people say, hey that never happened to me! What does that prove?

 

[sleepydoc]

Exactly, that’s the dilemma I can get it now for $10K vs $12k after the purchase. Lots of great information in this post. I have friends with Teslas one says Autopilot is enough and then others say auto lane change, stop light controls are godsends. Also I live in Austin, not too far from HQ, I feel like City streets would perform pretty good here because of the Tesla HQ advantage.

Ok - $2k difference = 10 months of subscription at current prices.

I just made a similar post in another thread - for the average driver I would recommend waiting and either subscribing or purchasing when it’s actually available. We know Elon’s time estimates are wildly overoptimistic and unreliable and it’s anyone’s guess when FSD beta will be widely available (like AP is now.) Based on the current trajectory I’d say 2-3 years (but don’t hold me to that!)

The downside to this approach is you can’t participate in FSD beta and Tesla will remove the FSD option if you trade in the car. They’re not enrolling new people in FSD beta right now anyway and as has been discussed above, no one knows what the resale value of FSD will be. If Tesla makes drastic improvements and it starts to live up to the promise It might be worth more. Currently it’s not worth much.

 

[VT_EE]

I have FSB Beta on my 2018 3. I find the software worthless and only activate when I feel like helping out the Tesla engineering team. It has a very long way to go before being useful IMO. No way would I pay anywhere near $10k or $12k for FSD. It would have to be near perfect to warrant that price. I will add that auto-lane change, NOA, and summon were part of Enhanced Auto Pilot, not FSD when I purchased. I wish Tesla would bring back EAP at a much cheaper price than FSD. I have gotten zero value from the $3k I put down for FSD.

 

[Goose66]

The ONLY replies you will get here are the (same) dozen anti-FSD posters that reply at nausea.

Here's my nausea-causing anti-FSD reply:

The biggest reason I wouldn't add $10K FSD to the car is that its value on resale/replacement of the car is undefined. Will you get some prorated value for this if the car it totaled or you sell it to a 3rd party. Right now the answer seems to be more often no. The subscription at $200 a month just makes a lot more sense financially, especially when you can turn it on and off at will. Based on my experience, you will play with all the features for a month and show off the parlor tricks to your friends, then end up using Navigate on Autopilot on long trips and not much else.

 

[PACEMD]

Here's my nausea-causing anti-FSD reply:

The biggest reason I wouldn't add $10K FSD to the car is that its value on resale/replacement of the car is undefined. Will you get some prorated value for this if the car it totaled or you sell it to a 3rd party. Right now the answer seems to be more often no. The subscription at $200 a month just makes a lot more sense financially, especially when you can turn it on and off at will. Based on my experience, you will play with all the features for a month and show off the parlor tricks to your friends, then end up using Navigate on Autopilot on long trips and not much else.

That's a fair statement.

 

[sleepydoc]

The ONLY replies you will get here are the (same) dozen anti-FSD posters that reply at nausea.

gee - I see a lot of thoughtful responses in this thread and I’m not nauseated at all!

 

[Firocity]

Lots of great responses folks. I am leaning towards just getting it. The whole reason I looked at Tesla in the first place was for the FSD to be able to make family road trips easier. I know I can toggle on subscribing and unsubscribing to the subscription. My thoughts are what if the subscription price gets bumped to $250 or more. Also having seen the city streets driving recently I see more utility beyond just using it for roadtrips.

 

[OliverM3]

Lots of great responses folks. I am leaning towards just getting it. The whole reason I looked at Tesla in the first place was for the FSD to be able to make family road trips easier. I know I can toggle on subscribing and unsubscribing to the subscription. My thoughts are what if the subscription price gets bumped to $250 or more. Also having seen the city streets driving recently I see more utility beyond just using it for roadtrips.

You'll have to let us know on your eventual result if it was worth it to you after living with it for awhile. I'm just to on edge to use something like that. So it's not something that would be relaxing for me.

 

[sleepydoc]

Lots of great responses folks. I am leaning towards just getting it. The whole reason I looked at Tesla in the first place was for the FSD to be able to make family road trips easier. I know I can toggle on subscribing and unsubscribing to the subscription. My thoughts are what if the subscription price gets bumped to $250 or more. Also having seen the city streets driving recently I see more utility beyond just using it for roadtrips.

Sounds good - do what you think works best for you! Be aware that the capabilities will be much more limited until they start letting more people in to FSD beta (or have a good enough version that they are comfortable pushing it out to everyone). Hopefully this will be ‘soon,’ but who knows.

You'll have to let us know on your eventual result if it was worth it to you after living with it for awhile. I'm just to on edge to use something like that. So it's not something that would be relaxing for me.

I’ve found that for longer highway trips AP/FSD does quite well and makes the trip much more relaxing for me.

As far as in town driving goes it’s a mixed bag. After you‘ve used it for a while you do develop a sense of what it can and can’t handle. Still, are the unexpected “What the….!!!!” Moments. If your personality is such that those would cause significant stress and anxiety then you’re better off waiting.

 

[father_of_6]

I am leaning towards just getting it.

Thank you for your financial contribution. Pappa needs a new pair of gigapresses!

 

[t3sl4drvr]

I am leaning towards just getting it

I'll sell you FSD for $5000. You save 50%

Oh wait... One cannot sell it. Especially when it has not even been delivered yet.

 

[father_of_6]

I'll sell you FSD for $5000. You save 50%

Oh wait... One cannot sell it. Especially when it has not even been delivered yet.

Yeah, I'm feeling a bit sad right now that I didn't try harder to dissuade the OP. I want to remain unbiased, but I can't help but feel like I just encouraged a fellow human being to make a really bad choice.

 

[Skione65]

The ONLY replies you will get here are the (same) dozen anti-FSD posters that reply at nausea.

@Yelobird

By the way it’s “Ad Naseam”………

at nasuea - Google Search

www.google.com

Ski

 

[sleepydoc]

Yeah, I'm feeling a bit sad right now that I didn't try harder to dissuade the OP. I want to remain unbiased, but I can't help but feel like I just encouraged a fellow human being to make a really bad choice.

Why? People have differing goals, circumstances, viewpoints, etc. A bad choice for one person may be the right choice for another. There were several thoughtful replies that gave varying opinions, pros and cons and the OP chose what s/he thought was the right answer for him/her. What more could you want?

 

[JHCCAZ]

Lots of great responses folks. I am leaning towards just getting it. The whole reason I looked at Tesla in the first place was for the FSD to be able to make family road trips easier. I know I can toggle on subscribing and unsubscribing to the subscription. My thoughts are what if the subscription price gets bumped to $250 or more. Also having seen the city streets driving recently I see more utility beyond just using it for roadtrips.

I'll add my vote that you should feel comfortable getting it if:

• You're fairly interested technically
• You can still get it for $10K (what a deal! )
• You don't think your life will be lesser for having spent the money, when you look back on it a year from now.

I know it still falls short of the stated/implied goals and expectations (what doesn't in life?) but I don't regret the purchase at all.

As opposed to many opinions expressed already, I don't find that FSD's utility depends on road-tripping or limited-access highway driving. I use FSD (non-Beta) mostly on median- or center--turn-lane- divided suburban-type roads with traffic-light intersections. The Traffic Light and Stop-Sign Control feature, though requiring confirmation as a lead car, works very well and allows you to pay more attention, not less I think, to defensive observation of potential cross-traffic and other threats. Yes you still have to observe everything, but you spend somewhat less time staring at the upcoming light to see if it's going to change.

On these medium-type roads, the user-initiated auto lane change is good, and here again it increases confidence - not because you stop paying attention (l still check mirror and blind-spot over my shoulder before invoking it), but it helps watch for developing last-second situations as you continue to look in all directions. The occasional times I do Interstate driving, I've actually preferred this feature over the NoA lane-change; the latter seems to be a little more quirky but I haven't used it a lot. By the way, if I didn't have this feature I would be particularly annoyed at the car's very poor visibility to the rear.

I do expect that there may be some changes, both improvements and possible regressions, as the legacy Autopilot software stack gets replaced by the merged stack that will derive from the City Streets project. For example, I'm guessing (without direct knowledge) that they may remove the confirmation chime for FSD-Autopilot even when you're not asking the car to navigate turns for you. But in doing so, it may for example react more nervously to cross-traffic threats. Basically, you should assume that what you're paying for today will change and evolve, generally towards more capability in the wide-release FSD version, but certainly with some annoyances along the way that'll require you to re-adapt to the car's behavior on familiar routes.