Delay in model X launch?

[Merrill]

Won't it be nice when the Model X is revealed and the design studio is up and running so we can tear that apart as well.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Sounds like Eds was a disgruntled worker, who took some insider discussion/knowledge and tainted it with his own negativity and posted it here on TMC. I don't think he broke and TMC rules, but he likely broke an NDA either signed by him or his employer. I'm sure Tesla Legal felt that due to the NDA, they were in their right to request a take-down on TMC.

Of course, this is all speculation (like most everything else on this forum). To be honest, I haven't followed this thread very closely because it seemed to me that Eds wasn't objective (he clearly sounded like someone with an axe to grind) and hence I didn't feel like I could trust his posts. I left it up to AR to see if he could filter out some truth from his posts.

Of course Tesla is going to spin the Model-X release as a victory. They had planned that from the start and thats what they would do for all their releases. They are going to focus on the positives of the Model-X and try to minimize the fact that this vehicle is 2+ years delayed. They have effectively said it was going to be delayed again on the last conference call, since previously they said it would be revealed at the end of summer (September 22) and now they say the end of the month (September 30?). That's around 1 week, so no big harm. After 2+ years, we're used to these delays.

I've refrained from posting to this thread, but I wanted to throw my 2 cents in before it died (wishful thinking?)

A fair post.

Just one comment:

One man's disgruntled employee could be another's whistleblower (in the most benign sense in this case), though. Sometimes people out what they feel is in the wrong - not because they personally felt mistreated. It is often quite impossible to say from public information whether or not someone is merely annoyed at the situation and wanted to blow the whistle on it to vent a little - or felt personally mistreated and went for revenge. In the latter the motivation to twist things is usually much higher than in the former.

 

[bonnie]

You ignored my point, though. Elon did mention design changes:

Originally Posted by Elon Musk CC
unexpected challenges which can range from force majeure to simply having to redo a design because the initial design was wrong

Now, it is of course possible you didn't hear Elon say that - but can you at least now acknowledge he did? Or are you saying Matias' quote is wrong?

We agree to disagree on the perspective issues, of course. If we could at least agree on those facts you too see so keen on.

Of course I heard him say that. ​But again, perhaps you're just not fully comprehending what I wrote. I know English is not your native language.

 

[gizmoboy]

Won't it be nice when the Model X is revealed and the design studio is up and running so we can tear that apart as well.

That's all I want!

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Of course I heard him say that. ​But again, perhaps you're just not fully comprehending what I wrote. I know English is not your native language.

Ouch.

 

[simplejack]

I've been lurking on this forum for the past few years after I reserved my MX. I read threads everyday and generally find the bickering humorous, but at this point I have to ask a question.

What is more plausible based on all the information that is known to date:

1. Tesla is delaying showing the MX to it's CUSTOMERS because they believe the features are so ground breaking that they want to hold them back for fear that they will be copied by other manufacturers.

2. Tesla is actually changing the design of things and does not want to reveal until they can confirm the design.

I personally believe #2 and think that Tesla will be launching the Design Studio sometime in late Sept and will deliver less than 100 cars in Q3. It makes absolutely no business sense for a public company to not show a final design when you revise guidance down. If you had a confirmed final design, you would showcase that right now to combat the delay in deliveries. Oh, and for the few of you that are saying they did not revise guidance down because they kept the 55k at the top of the range, that is not how it works. They most definitely revised guidance down.

The net/net is that there clearly is a delay in the MX, but it does not appear to be as material of a delay as the previous ones.

 

[AlMc]

I feel the need to cleanse my soul by admitting to periodically having to check this thread.
Sorry, I have nothing to contribute as it appears that everything that could be said has been said............

25-30times

 

[gizmoboy]

I've been lurking on this forum for the past few years after I reserved my MX. I read threads everyday and generally find the bickering humorous, but at this point I have to ask a question.

What is more plausible based on all the information that is known to date:

1. Tesla is delaying showing the MX to it's CUSTOMERS because they believe the features are so ground breaking that they want to hold them back for fear that they will be copied by other manufacturers.

2. Tesla is actually changing the design of things and does not want to reveal until they can confirm the design.

I personally believe #2 and think that Tesla will be launching the Design Studio sometime in late Sept and will deliver less than 100 cars in Q3. It makes absolutely no business sense for a public company to not show a final design when you revise guidance down. If you had a confirmed final design, you would showcase that right now to combat the delay in deliveries. Oh, and for the few of you that are saying they did not revise guidance down because they kept the 55k at the top of the range, that is not how it works. They most definitely revised guidance down.

The net/net is that there clearly is a delay in the MX, but it does not appear to be as material of a delay as the previous ones.

OP's assertion was less than 100 Xs delivered by end of year, not just Q3.

Less than 100 for Q3 sounds very likely to me -- practically a given, I'd say.

 

[sub]

#3. They don't want model X to consume model S purchases until they absolutely have to since it will take them some time to ramp up.

 

[mikes_fsd]

OP's assertion was less than 100 Xs delivered by end of year, not just Q3.

Less than 100 for Q3 sounds very likely to me -- practically a given, I'd say.

+1 on this.

I think much of confusion with less then 100 delivered is the time frame! We know plenty of people on this forum who are holders of Model X Sig <100, if they did not get their cars by end of September, TMC will be the first in line to know.

 

[GVTesla]

#3. They don't want model X to consume model S purchases until they absolutely have to since it will take them some time to ramp up.

Totally agree. That sounds like the most sensible thing to do for Tesla at this point.

 

[Trnsl8r]

Sorry, I'm new to this thread. What have I missed? :redface:

A new low in TMC history.

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Sounds like Eds was a disgruntled worker, who took some insider discussion/knowledge and tainted it with his own negativity and posted it here on TMC. I don't think he broke and TMC rules, but he likely broke an NDA either signed by him or his employer. I'm sure Tesla Legal felt that due to the NDA, they were in their right to request a take-down on TMC.
...

If he broke an NDA, he technically broke TMC rules. From http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/21568-Terms-of-Service?p=442665&viewfull=1#post442665

You agree to not use the Service to:
...
e. upload, post, email, transmit or otherwise make available any Content that you do not have a right to make available under any law or under contractual or fiduciary relationships (such as inside information, proprietary and confidential information learned or disclosed as part of employment relationships or under nondisclosure agreements);

I think the claims that let Tesla rule what is posted on this site are inherently false. There have been posts highly critical of Tesla service or quality (few, thankfully) that were not deleted or censored. Some received responses from Tesla themselves.

 

[vandacca]

A new low in TMC history.

Sorry, dry Canadian humour. I've actually followed this thread from the start, but didn't feel compelled to get involved due to biased nature of the OP. Just trying to lighten things up with BonnAR (apologies to both).

If he broke an NDA, he technically broke TMC rules. From Terms of Service

Yeah, I don't think the NDA is quite cut and dry (at least not as dry as Canadian humour). I'm certain that an argument can be made in both directions whether the OP broke any NDA. Personally, I think its the OP position at a Tesla supplier (more than anything he actually wrote) that concerned Tesla Legal. That and his poor attitude.

 

[dsm363]

Judging by this thread, I'm hardly alone in my opinion.

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I know this is an unpopular opinion by some, but I still offer my opinion that gossip seems to turn into unwanted when it might reflect badly on Tesla the company. This rarely happens when gossip has the reverse effect or pointed at competition. Same with criticism.

Obviously my opinion is that as a community we would do well to consider all gossip fairly - and of course determine which is believable and which is not - wholly independent on whether or not some company might like it.

You seem to think those who see things differently couldn't possibly have a good reason and just blindly accept anything Tesla says with zero thought put into it. Those who have had positive experiences must be delusional as only you and a select few others are intelligent enough to see the truth. That's was it seems you are saying.

 

[Blastphemy]

OP's assertion was less than 100 Xs delivered by end of year, not just Q3.

Less than 100 for Q3 sounds very likely to me -- practically a given, I'd say.

Based on Tesla's prior performance, I only anticipate 10-20 Model Xs delivered by the end of Q3, and fewer than 2,500 delivered for Q4. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[NigelM]

Based on Tesla's prior performance, I only anticipate 10-20 Model Xs delivered by the end of Q3, and fewer than 2,500 delivered for Q4. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.

Agree. But that kind matches what I think I heard (and read between the lines) on Wednesday's CC.

 

[MrBoylan]

What is more plausible based on all the information that is known to date:

1. Tesla is delaying showing the MX to it's CUSTOMERS because they believe the features are so ground breaking that they want to hold them back for fear that they will be copied by other manufacturers.

2. Tesla is actually changing the design of things and does not want to reveal until they can confirm the design.

I think it's a little of both, but there's more to it. Seems to me that Elon had some pretty bold ideas for the second/third rows that have turned out to be difficult to implement, possibly due to a supplier not holding up their end of the bargain. And when I heard Elon talk about "design changes" on the conference call, I assumed he meant the supplier came back with a seat design that didn't match Tesla's specs and the supplier had to go back to make revisions to the part (though that is subject to interpretation).

Tesla could probably build prototype seats by hand, with the help of 3D printers or a rapid prototyping machine, that they could use in the first few dozen cars (and they may be doing so). But I think Elon wants to try to minimize the delay between founders' cars/early customer deliveries and larger scale wide delivery to the general public. Two months after the first Model S customer deliveries, they were still only making about 15-20 cars a week, which was barely making a dent in their order backlog. And I would bet those who had been waiting for years were getting a bit antsy, particularly after they saw the "production" Model S launched and delivered to a select few in June, 2012.

I think Elon wants the next Model X that he shows to be right off the final production line and ready to be delivered to customers, complete with production versions of the artistic and ergonomic wonder of these mysterious middle/rear seats. This way, after those first few special people get their cars, Tesla will be ready and able to start fulfilling the 25K-ish backlog of Model X orders much quicker than they could with the Model S.

My two cents...

 

[MrBoylan]

#3. They don't want model X to consume model S purchases until they absolutely have to since it will take them some time to ramp up.

^This!

If the Model X is as awesome as I expect it to be, it will definitely impact Model S sales. And the longer people have to wait for their Model X to be delivered, the longer Tesla has to wait to realize the revenue (and the more likely it is for people to cancel). A Model S buyer in the hand is word two Xes in the bush. So Tesla is trying *NOT* to hype the Model X until customers can actually get one in a reasonable amount of time.

There are already somewhere between 25K and 30K active reservations for a car that has only been shown in prototype form in limited places. Imagine how the demand will ramp up after the formal launch when people actually start seeing them out in the wild (driven by someone not wearing a plaid shirt) and in the showrooms and test drive events.

 

[Gerasimental]

Sorry, I'm new to this thread. What have I missed? :redface:

Don't ask, just run and never look back! It's too late for me, I've been sucked in too deep already.

 

[gizmoboy]

Based on Tesla's prior performance, I only anticipate 10-20 Model Xs delivered by the end of Q3, and fewer than 2,500 delivered for Q4. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.

That sounds plausible to me too.