Glad to see you are willing to back up your assertions with skin in the game. Although I think you are wrong in about a weeks time, good luck and be nimble.
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Glad to see you are willing to back up your assertions with skin in the game. Although I think you are wrong in about a weeks time, good luck and be nimble.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Zzzz...
Member
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I think realist is thinking that your situation, 500,000 cars/year, is unlikely and that in 5 years they will be stuck selling 40k cars still.
marvinat0rz
Member
Realist, out of curiosity: Do you have any opinion on Tesla's long-term prospects, or is your short thesis based only on Tesla being overvalued today by traditional automotive standards? I am long, but I could see a world where Tesla fell to $50/share in the short term. This would have to be based on a massively negative change in sentiment, maybe with a crash in the wider stock market. And I obviously believe it is very unlikely in the long term - Tesla will not be selling 20-40k cars/year five years from now, and any valuation has to account for this probability. If growth stocks were always valued on a "sensible" P/E, it would be a fantastic opportunity to make a lot of money.
Then again, John Petersen says that Tesla's fair value is $5/share, so maybe your short thesis is an optimistic one.
Then again, John Petersen says that Tesla's fair value is $5/share, so maybe your short thesis is an optimistic one.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Actually I think that if tesla fell down towards 50 dollars, we would have to consider the fact that Elon musk might get a margin call from Goldman and have to sell out a portion of his 100 million, in which case we'd see even more downward movement.
sub
Active Member
Anything could happen, and at some point tesla will have some sort of shorter term correction. What I don't get with people like realist, why all the negative energy? I bet your a joy to be around. I spend zero time thinking, reading, investing in any company I don't believe in. Why not go put your money behind something you believe in rather than wishing for things to go bad for others and a company? Good luck with that, I've removed everyone in my life that even remotely resembles this sort of negativity.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
The nice thing about being long is I have the luxury of staying focused on the long-term and ignoring the negativity of the shorts like our friend there. Sure, I hear his points ... but I evaluate companies for a living, have gotten to know a lot of the company management team, have met the talent they've hired, have walked the factory floor, witnessed the power of the culture and vision within the company, see how driven people are, own the product, experienced the customer service, watched acceptance changing, witnessed brand recognition growing exponentially, studied the financials, and believe in the future.
It's above $32? ... The rest is just noise.
Ha! As I recall, I paid $32.51 for my first batch. Some friends and family have said "you have GOT to sell, or at least keep your finger hovering over the button for when it tanks" ok, I'm paraphrasing. 2 things they don't seem to know: I'm in long with only spare cash I could afford to lose, and: a drop in price means 'buy more' not 'sell'. I'm a believer. ML
sub
Active Member
I'm with you for the most part, I'm well into the green but not as far as you. The shorts/bears don't affect me personally, just trying to illustrate their negativity. I can see playing short term downward movement of a stock as a pure financial play, but these shorts are obsessed with tesla failing. They have to be really miserable people to be around, they don't realize the negativity hurts them the most. Poor things, I guess they can put a price on happiness and apparently it's a lot lower than $164.
marvinat0rz
Member
I dunno, there should be room for opposing views on this forum. Seems like whenever someone who's short or even a bit negative shows up here, he gets pounced by 200 contributors, accused of trolling, accused of being stupid etc. I think opposing views are valuable feedback which should be appreciated. Which is why I encourage you to post, Realist.
sub
Active Member
Just to be clear, I'm not against realist posting or being on TMC, trying to understand his and other shorts psychology.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
I'm already up from jumping in yesterday.
To be clear. My long position remains untouched. I just can not resist a little "day trading" when the stock gets hit just before what I believe will be a very good Q3. It just does not make sense so why not make a little coffee money.
To be clear. My long position remains untouched. I just can not resist a little "day trading" when the stock gets hit just before what I believe will be a very good Q3. It just does not make sense so why not make a little coffee money.
It's all about Valuation.
Tesla is a 20 billion$ company. So far they have not generated a single $ on cash flow despite the surprising success of their flagship car Model S.
People try to justify the market cap through various arguments (technological leadership, brand value, Musk being a genius etc....)
All this "believing" and the sheer greed through the share's surge has created this massive bubble.
I don't have a crystal Ball, so indeed Tesla could go to 300 and higher. Still I see very viable chance for Tesla actually ending up as another Fisker. The people who really believe that Tesla can shake up the whole industry have obviously no insight into the forces and knowledge of this sector. The Model S is in fact already an outdated car and the only reason why companies like Toyota and BMW don't create a direct competitor is the profit margin.
I know that americans always see themselve as the leader in tech. But that is not how we think. I see no way for Tesla being sucessfull in Europe without subsidies. Musk wants to sell 10.000 cars a Year in germany. He will be lucky if he sells 1000. Japan might be worse still.
Tesla is a 20 billion$ company. So far they have not generated a single $ on cash flow despite the surprising success of their flagship car Model S.
People try to justify the market cap through various arguments (technological leadership, brand value, Musk being a genius etc....)
All this "believing" and the sheer greed through the share's surge has created this massive bubble.
I don't have a crystal Ball, so indeed Tesla could go to 300 and higher. Still I see very viable chance for Tesla actually ending up as another Fisker. The people who really believe that Tesla can shake up the whole industry have obviously no insight into the forces and knowledge of this sector. The Model S is in fact already an outdated car and the only reason why companies like Toyota and BMW don't create a direct competitor is the profit margin.
I know that americans always see themselve as the leader in tech. But that is not how we think. I see no way for Tesla being sucessfull in Europe without subsidies. Musk wants to sell 10.000 cars a Year in germany. He will be lucky if he sells 1000. Japan might be worse still.
Realist, is the "viable chance", as you put it, based on some sort of analysis, or on your opinion? What is that based on?
Tesla has already cleared many hurdles Fisker failed to clear.
They have a vastly superior supply chain than Fisker did, and are less reliant on it than Fisker was.
I do value opposing views, I just would like to know if yours is based on anything?
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Hmm, maybe you can enlighten us in which parts it is so seriously outdated? And considering the luxury or performance class of cars the Model S is not higher priced, in many cases it's far cheaper than the competing cars so seeing 1000 sales is being extremely pessimistic indeed. The 10k per year goal is at the end of 2014 when they have created the infrastructure to take range anxiety out of the question even for autobahn speed driving. That's one of the reasons Elon put focus on Germany and is investing hard in 2014 to german infrastructure. Creating 54 superchargers costs ca 8M, which is offset by sale of 4000 cars (the 2000 usd supercharger activation at sale) so it's a good investment.
Krugerrand
Meow
This is why you will be wrong in the end. You've made a gravely incorrect assumption (several actually). You can't possibly know the background of the people, or even the majority of the people, who 'really believe that Tesla can shake up the whole industry'. There's a whole group of people, right this very second, working at a little company called Tesla who believe. We know many of those Tesla employees believe because people talk to them every day and report how enthusiastic they are about what's going on at Tesla. We know many of those Tesla employees have insight into the forces and knowledge of this sector because they've come from other automotive manufacturers, some from very high levels. There are many people on this forum who believe and have insight into the forces and knowledge of this sector. Many of the original investors in Tesla and current investors, have insight into the forces and knowledge of this sector.
This is also why you will be wrong in the end. Your unwillingness to acknowledge the success that Tesla is already seeing in Europe. Your inability to comprehend the ingenuity of Model S, the Supercharger Network, and Tesla's business model. But mostly your lack of understanding of the man at the helm.
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