Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Discussion: Model 3 and Y price drop Jan 2023 / April 2023 / Oct 2023 and All other Pricing Speculation going forward

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I think I locked in that $56,990 price, I can't believe it went up $1000 just in this last hour!!!!

The Tesla store was just about the close too, and I almost thought of not doing it but I felt I had to do it because Tesla never gives out free money if they don't have to.
View attachment 903087
How about tomorrow if they decrease the price by $13k? Would you feel some sort of way?
 
That’s a high internet rate period! my score 822 with a loan for 3.64 and 3.24 which I wil refinance to that expires in two weeks. Ny credit union. The CU rates are now higher.
Yeah, I'm too not worried about it. The absolute lowest rate Tesla could offer was 5.44 and the absolute lowest rate my CU could offer was 4.7 on a 60 month loan. Typical loan rates for most places hover at around 5 to 6 percent right now. Much more convenient to go through my Credit Union where I already have accounts and with only $24k financed and no early payoff penalty I plan on paying it off in about a year. Probably should have opted for a lower term to get a lower rate but with the quick payoff it's not really going to affect it too much (full 60 month term is $3k interest).
 
IMHO more a result of Elons visit to DC
I think it is more a result of Jim Farley's call to Uncle Joe. After both Tesla and Ford lowered their prices, Ford continued to be non-competitive per this chart.

1675543701444.png
 
  • Informative
Reactions: 240vPlug
I think it is more a result of Jim Farley's call to Uncle Joe. After both Tesla and Ford lowered their prices, Ford continued to be non-competitive per this chart.

View attachment 903349
That chart is outdated, all of the Mach-E's have the $7500 credit now from the new $80K and under SUV definition. However, I called around for a few Mach-E's in California and they were all above MSRP and had things like $999 additional "security" installed that couldn't be taken of the price.

I value the Tesla's charging network at about $8,000 plus for the vehicle. If the Net Price of a Mach-E California Route was $40,000 and the MYLR was $48,000, I would seriously consider the Mach-E. It would be even more interesting if the Mach-E could use the Supercharging Network. The Cyber Orange Metallic is a real cool color as well, my wife also hates that color which makes me like it more. However, I would still probably go Tesla because the lack of dealership nonsense, trying to get you to bring in the car for $100 air filter changes and changing break fluid at a ridiculous rate with regen braking.

Getting a Tesla is always a hectic process where things are done down to the wire, however once you get the car you don't need to deal with them much. I am still waiting for my offer on my 2013 Model S for a trade-in to get my MYP tomorrow that I snagged on Friday morning. I also refuse to use the Plaid payment service, Giving my account information and password? No thanks. Got a certified check to bring with me tomorrow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Happy Hippo
That chart is outdated, all of the Mach-E's have the $7500 credit now from the new $80K and under SUV definition. However, I called around for a few Mach-E's in California and they were all above MSRP and had things like $999 additional "security" installed that couldn't be taken of the price.

I value the Tesla's charging network at about $8,000 plus for the vehicle. If the Net Price of a Mach-E California Route was $40,000 and the MYLR was $48,000, I would seriously consider the Mach-E. It would be even more interesting if the Mach-E could use the Supercharging Network. The Cyber Orange Metallic is a real cool color as well, my wife also hates that color which makes me like it more. However, I would still probably go Tesla because the lack of dealership nonsense, trying to get you to bring in the car for $100 air filter changes and changing break fluid at a ridiculous rate with regen braking.

Getting a Tesla is always a hectic process where things are done down to the wire, however once you get the car you don't need to deal with them much. I am still waiting for my offer on my 2013 Model S for a trade-in to get my MYP tomorrow that I snagged on Friday morning. I also refuse to use the Plaid payment service, Giving my account information and password? No thanks. Got a certified check to bring with me tomorrow.
THE Mach E does not have a heat pump for those that need it and live in colder climates. That is a no go for me.
 
How about tomorrow if they decrease the price by $13k? Would you feel some sort of way?
If they did maybe I’ll cancel my order and re-order I wonder if anyone tried that.

But it’s now $1000 increase. They increased the LR by $500 when the tax incentive was still the same at $55k. Most sources say Tesla will likely increase its prices back up.

20% off a new car seems like a big discount. I heard Ford was losing money trying to compete with Tesla.

I think Tesla will be losing money if they went down another $13k from $56.9k. I was almost considering to skip out on the price cut because the performance wasn’t an option at the time.

But I was only a few hours off from the new $1000 M-Y performance increase. I checked my invoice it was $56.9k base price.
 
Last edited:
$51.7k I think.

But I just realized the ASP would be worldwide, so since China prices are lower already the USA price might not change.
It does not matter what it was in 2022. As of Feb 4, 2023 avg ASP of Model Y ~53k in US and China. Most likely, they will drop prices again right after $7500 tax credit phase-out or after getting battery incentives from gov or after Fed raises the interest rate. The economy in a downturn while the production rate increases, Tesla wants to sell more cars in an inflationary env. So, keep cash tight, and don't say anyone you are lucky just because you bought $50K+ car in 2023. Given that Standard Range is $2k cheaper and Performance is $3k more expensive vs Long Range, CFO forecast on the earnings call the avg ASP for Model Y Long Range could be as lowest as ~$47K in 2023.

I would expect one more 1k price hike before March phase-out with the following $4k price drop. It's quite smart to increase demand the way Tesla does it.

Also, if you look into the price history of Model Y Long Range AWD lowest ASP was $48,990 in 2021. I think it's reasonable to wait for that price point, given more efficient production.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: cdub and vishnumrao
That chart is outdated, all of the Mach-E's have the $7500 credit now from the new $80K and under SUV definition. However, I called around for a few Mach-E's in California and they were all above MSRP and had things like $999 additional "security" installed that couldn't be taken of the price.

I value the Tesla's charging network at about $8,000 plus for the vehicle. If the Net Price of a Mach-E California Route was $40,000 and the MYLR was $48,000, I would seriously consider the Mach-E. It would be even more interesting if the Mach-E could use the Supercharging Network. The Cyber Orange Metallic is a real cool color as well, my wife also hates that color which makes me like it more. However, I would still probably go Tesla because the lack of dealership nonsense, trying to get you to bring in the car for $100 air filter changes and changing break fluid at a ridiculous rate with regen braking.

Getting a Tesla is always a hectic process where things are done down to the wire, however once you get the car you don't need to deal with them much. I am still waiting for my offer on my 2013 Model S for a trade-in to get my MYP tomorrow that I snagged on Friday morning. I also refuse to use the Plaid payment service, Giving my account information and password? No thanks. Got a certified check to bring with me tomorrow.
That chart is not outdated for the time period we were discussing which was after Musk's DC visit but before the Treasury dpt's new rules.

Your dealership experience illustrates why people hate to deal with them. Everyone has to make a living, but when the price gouging is just so in your face, it turns people off. Price of lumber rises after a hurricane blows through, but the buyer never sees something like a current MSRP. Good point wrt putting a value on the Supercharger ntwk. Good luck with the MYP.
 
Yeah the tax incentives are very likely changing/reducing after March, and the battery component / critical mineral sourcing requirements become more onerous over time with big changes Jan 1st 2024 and 2025.

If goods prices head back upwards, that will feed into inflation metrics being watched by central banks and will possibly contribute to higher interest rates for longer. Prices need to come down and stay down.
 
Yeah the tax incentives are very likely changing/reducing after March, and the battery component / critical mineral sourcing requirements become more onerous over time with big changes Jan 1st 2024 and 2025.

If goods prices head back upwards, that will feed into inflation metrics being watched by central banks and will possibly contribute to higher interest rates for longer. Prices need to come down and stay down.
So coming in March the IRS is expected to uphold the law‘s battery mineral (40%) and battery component (50%) in the US/free trade territories. Why did they allow this brief window where they weren’t concerned? Moreover does anyone know if they do uphold these %’s if Tesla or really any manufacturer currently meet them?

Furthermore consider that the White House wants to push EV adoption and that Musk and likely other lobbyists met last week and then suddenly many vehicles now have an $80k cap. I know this is anyone’s guess but I feel everything will be tweaked to sell more EVs. Whatever that looks like.
 
So coming in March the IRS is expected to uphold the law‘s battery mineral (40%) and battery component (50%) in the US/free trade territories. Why did they allow this brief window where they weren’t concerned? Moreover does anyone know if they do uphold these %’s if Tesla or really any manufacturer currently meet them?

Furthermore consider that the White House wants to push EV adoption and that Musk and likely other lobbyists met last week and then suddenly many vehicles now have an $80k cap. I know this is anyone’s guess but I feel everything will be tweaked to sell more EVs. Whatever that looks like.
Guidance on the components and minerals was initially to be released by the end of 2022, but this transition period is result of that being delayed until March. I’m sure there’s lots of back and forth, consultation in setting up tracking for all this stuff, etc.

There doesn’t seem to be any indication that demand is a problem with the current EV lineups, so I’m not sure that would be a big selling point. The key is to not use taxpayer money to subsidize further control of the battery supply chain by foreign entities of concern and to incentivize bringing that supply chain onto our shores and the shores of other friendly partners.

I personally think maybe Tesla could produce some vehicles meeting all of the current requirements, but it might be small volume compared to total production/sales. Who knows though, that’s just total speculation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dougfox
The IRS/Treasury Dept. has now re-classified all MYs as SUVs and thus they will all qualify for the Federal Tax Credit when the MSRP does not exceed $80K (as long as your yearly income is under $150K for a single person or $300K for a married couple). Prior to this update the MY's without the 3rd row seats were not classified as SUVs and thus did not qualify for the tax credit if the MSRP exceeded $55K. One thing this change in the classification does is give Tesla the flexibility to increase base price for MYs to back above $55K and still have buyers still qualify for the tax credit. This may not happen soon, but I wouldn't be surprised is if happens sometime later this year depending of how the demand for MYs plays out in the coming months.

Update: appears Tesla already increased the base price of the MY-P by $1K.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: enemji
The IRS/Treasury Dept. has now re-classified all MYs as SUVs and thus they will all qualify for the Federal Tax Credit when the MSRP does not exceed $80K (as long as your yearly income is under $150K for a single person or $300K for a married couple). Prior to this update the MY's without the 3rd row seats were not classified as SUVs and thus did not qualify for the tax credit if the MSRP exceeded $55K. One thing this change in the classification does is give Tesla the flexibility to increase base price for MYs to back above $55K and still have buyers still qualify for the tax credit. This may not happen soon, but I wouldn't be surprised is if happens sometime later this year depending of how the demand for MYs plays out in the coming months.

Update: appears Tesla already increased the base price of the MY-P by $1K.
 
Good conversation here and Ron J. hit it on the head. Well done. My question, we don’t qualify for any ev tax incentives and wondering if we should just wait a few more months to order a MYLR to see if these safety-updates or upgrades will be installed. From what I’ve read, HD radar will first be introduced into the Cyber truck if that actually ever comes to fruition. Any point in waiting or just buy it now?
 
Good conversation here and Ron J. hit it on the head. Well done. My question, we don’t qualify for any ev tax incentives and wondering if we should just wait a few more months to order a MYLR to see if these safety-updates or upgrades will be installed. From what I’ve read, HD radar will first be introduced into the Cyber truck if that actually ever comes to fruition. Any point in waiting or just buy it now?
Just my gut feeling, because one never really knows with Tesla. But I wouldn't expect any updates to the MYLR (except for price increases) in the near future. Any hardware updates are probably quite a long ways out.
 
Last edited:
Good conversation here and Ron J. hit it on the head. Well done. My question, we don’t qualify for any ev tax incentives and wondering if we should just wait a few more months to order a MYLR to see if these safety-updates or upgrades will be installed. From what I’ve read, HD radar will first be introduced into the Cyber truck if that actually ever comes to fruition. Any point in waiting or just buy it now?
with Tesla, the next best thing can happen any day. If you wait for the next best, you will never own. Best to hop on for the ride and in a few years, re-evaluate whether worth it to trade in for newest model