Discussion: Model 3 and Y price drop Jan 2023 / April 2023 / Oct 2023 and All other Pricing Speculation going forward

[mknmike]

I'm shopping M3 or maybe MY before year end, and started really looking at inventory in late August / early September. I was thinking that the inventory discounts were a normal thing. However, looking at this chart, it seems that they were simply at all-time-highs at that point, and right now inventory seems to be dwindling. So while I don't anticipate any price hikes in the M3 or MY before the end of the year, it seems like maybe I should not expect a Q4 inventory push like they had in August/September. Anyone else have opinions on this?

 

[cdub]

it seems like maybe I should not expect a Q4 inventory push like they had in August/September. Anyone else have opinions on this?

From watching there always seems to be an end of quarter/year inventory push. Keep in mind there was also a price drop after last dec and most recently now after the push.

Thankfully the current price drop brought it to around the inventory price I paid for my car.

 

[cdub]

Personally the highland reveal made me realize I didn't want to wait for the new Y refresh. I hate the idea of no stalks and I really like the wood trim. Maybe I am getting old. Lol. Tried the turn signals on steering wheel on the X in the showroom and hated it. Didn't like how it felt.

 

[mknmike]

Personally the highland reveal made me realize I didn't want to wait for the new Y refresh. I hate the idea of no stalks and I really like the wood trim. Maybe I am getting old. Lol. Tried the turn signals on steering wheel on the X in the showroom and hated it. Didn't like how it felt.

That's certainly a concern for us too. I think that maybe I could get used to turn signals on the steering wheel, but I don't know about shifting gears with a touch screen. I want to be able to switch gears parallel parking quickly. If I have to go to a touch screen and say "hmm" ever time I switch gears. I like the idea of the sleeker exterior with a lower drag coefficient, and to look like I'm driving a newer car, and get more miles per "tank", but not enough to try and convince my wife that losing a stalk is worth it. So even if buying a 3, we are happy it's an older version we will get. Could it be that perhaps Tesla is banking on lots of people thinking like us and drying up the old inventory? I will be watching.

Is there anywhere that you can see what Tesla is currently building? It's great to be able to see inventory, which I expect to only decline until they ramp up production. But why would they ramp up production on model 3 when they are retooling for the new version? I understand they are still taking orders for the existing old M3 in the US. So they are still building. But are they going to still be building at the rates they have in the past? I bet that when they do a big production push, they will let it be known to the public that they are, and say something like "now is the last time to get the old M3 with a stalk" or something like that. Maybe not. You all will know better.


Batteries... Which M3 or MY is it that is supposed to have the best battery?

 

[mknmike]

Another pricing / searching related question. This doesn't really matter to me at the moment, but I noticed when refreshing my local inventory page that a demo vehicle shows up in the list for a split second before disappearing. Maybe it's not quite in my area? Or maybe they are intentionally not including demo vehicles in the "new" at this time.

It doesn't really matter right now bc we don't want white, and a $200 discount isn't worth not getting a "new" one anyway. I just want to know how to navigate the site in case a demo we DO want shows up. Here's a screen shot of what is seen on my screen only for a split second before being removed.

 

[pipestem]

IDK, just check frequently. We got a service loaner back in March at a pretty large discount, I found it at 11:30pm, but was not there earlier.

 

[pipestem]

Regarding batteries, I think you choose the model you want, and then get the battery, more than the other way around. RWD in both cases seems to have LFP now. But if you want the AWD, power, absolute range (not daily range), and can afford it, then you will choose the LR AWD versions. LFP seems good so far, but we don't have a lot of long term data on it, yet.

 

[vickh]

Regarding batteries, I think you choose the model you want, and then get the battery, more than the other way around. RWD in both cases seems to have LFP now. But if you want the AWD, power, absolute range (not daily range), and can afford it, then you will choose the LR AWD versions. LFP seems good so far, but we don't have a lot of long term data on it, yet.

It's not certain that RWD=LFP for Y. Reps I spoke too said not to charge to 100% per memo. Not sure if it's the form factor or chemistry

 

[mknmike]

Which Teslas have LFP batteries?

LFP battery technology is more affordable than other alternatives. Here are the Tesla models that have LFP batteries.

electrifynews.com

This 2022 article does contain info on LFP batteries:

What Batteries Are Tesla Using In Its Electric Cars?

Tesla is the world's largest electric car manufacturer and many wonder what batteries the company uses. Let's take a look at what we know.

insideevs.com

2021 (OLD) article with video of a LFP / Prismatic battery:

See Inside Of The Tesla Model 3's LFP Prismatic Battery Pack

Tesla accustomed us to using lithium-ion cells in cylindrical form factor, starting with 1865, 2170 and 4680, but there is one exception - prismatic LFP cells.

insideevs.com

On the Model 3 Tesla Ordering Page, this statement makes it look like the LFP batteries are using in the standard range vehicles.

Very Cold Weather​

For the best long range driving experience in the coldest driving conditions, we recommend a Long Range or Performance Model 3.
(EDIT: Note this statement is NOT under the MY info, just M3)
That sure makes it look like the LFP is used in the stadard range M3 (and MY that is yet to again be available in the US in inventory).

I wonder if the Philadelphia area is "very cold weather". We are looking at a model 3 to add to our old AWD Honda vehicles. So if it's THAT bad, we can take one of the old ICE vehicles. My wife is more OK with buying a tesla if it's not eliminating one of our versatile old junkers. Adding a M3 is cheaper than replacing our Honda Pilot with a MY. So that's why I'm mostly looking at the M3. Maybe in the future we can buy a used higher-end model or something.

 

[EatsShoots]

Which Teslas have LFP batteries?

LFP battery technology is more affordable than other alternatives. Here are the Tesla models that have LFP batteries.

electrifynews.com

This 2022 article does contain info on LFP batteries:

What Batteries Are Tesla Using In Its Electric Cars?

Tesla is the world's largest electric car manufacturer and many wonder what batteries the company uses. Let's take a look at what we know.

insideevs.com

2021 (OLD) article with video of a LFP / Prismatic battery:

See Inside Of The Tesla Model 3's LFP Prismatic Battery Pack

Tesla accustomed us to using lithium-ion cells in cylindrical form factor, starting with 1865, 2170 and 4680, but there is one exception - prismatic LFP cells.

insideevs.com

On the Model 3 Tesla Ordering Page, this statement makes it look like the LFP batteries are using in the standard range vehicles.

Very Cold Weather​

For the best long range driving experience in the coldest driving conditions, we recommend a Long Range or Performance Model 3.
(EDIT: Note this statement is NOT under the MY info, just M3)
That sure makes it look like the LFP is used in the stadard range M3 (and MY that is yet to again be available in the US in inventory).

I wonder if the Philadelphia area is "very cold weather". We are looking at a model 3 to add to our old AWD Honda vehicles. So if it's THAT bad, we can take one of the old ICE vehicles. My wife is more OK with buying a tesla if it's not eliminating one of our versatile old junkers. Adding a M3 is cheaper than replacing our Honda Pilot with a MY. So that's why I'm mostly looking at the M3. Maybe in the future we can buy a used higher-end model or something.

I'm in NY and we got an m3 lfp this summer. I have experience with electric cars in the winter. I made a long post and deleted it because it's off topic here. LFP are worse in winter but mainly electric car range is terrible in winter anyway--expect ~40% range reduction. I am in NY and bought a model 3 LFP in the summer, for what it's worth.

 

[mknmike]

I'm in NY and we got an m3 lfp this summer. I have experience with electric cars in the winter. I made a long post and deleted it because it's off topic here. LFP are worse in winter but mainly electric car range is terrible in winter anyway--expect ~40% range reduction. I am in NY and bought a model 3 LFP in the summer, for what it's worth.

I agree it is a bit OT, but the cars with LFP is pertinent to pricing since they are less expensive to manufacture (perhaps also cheaper to replace if ever needed). I'd be interested in your post though. Feel free to PM to links on the topic. Thanks!

 

[EatsShoots]

I agree it is a bit OT, but the cars with LFP is pertinent to pricing since they are less expensive to manufacture (perhaps also cheaper to replace if ever needed). I'd be interested in your post though. Feel free to PM to links on the topic. Thanks!

The post I did end up making made me look drunk.

In any case for the longer post, I googled the impact of LFP batteries on Winter range in Teslas, and what I could glean was nothing very quantifiable at all—just that they are not good—followed by plenty of anecdotes equally applicable to all electric vehicles (because imo all electric vehicles suffer mightily in the winter). The model 3 rwd is a killer deal right now. We have 11k miles on ours in < 3 months. I would buy another but don’t want to lose our other vehicle’s awd. That’s why considering an LR y to sit next to it.

 

[Doug1000]

Wondering how many people are in this situation?

I bought my 2022 MY Performance, took delivery in July 2022, total out the door price was $76.5K including taxes and fees. Yesterday I went to the Tesla shop, test drove an X and S. Both those cars are a lot smoother than the MY in my opinion. Driving the MY, I am always avoiding bumps and potholes here in New England.

I asked what an exactly the same 2023 MY Performance would cost today, and the total was $60.3K, see the screenshot, and then last night Tesla reduced the MY price price another $2K. So, I paid $18.2K more than I could have waiting about a year. Yes, I bought the car for the price last year and agreed to pay it.

If I ever sell it or trade this MY in, I get taken to the cleaners, since buyers can just buy a new one. Even keeping the car for 20 years, I still lose about $900K/year.
Ouch, this is by far the most expensive car decision I have made in 30 years.

 

[Mike728]

...
If I ever sell it or trade this MY in, I get taken to the cleaners, since buyers can just buy a new one. Even keeping the car for 20 years, I still lose about $900K/year.

Say what?

 

[Doug1000]

$18K price reduction in 1 year divided by 20 years, if I were to keep the car that long, is $900/year I meant, good catch! Who else has this situation...

 

[jmaddr]

This is asked often. Everyone who bought around the same time is in the same situation. However, that is all paper loss at this time. If you were to sell today, certainly you would take more of a bath. If you were to sell in...say...5 years, the depreciation curve flattens and you take less of one, not to mention when the price increases again (and it will, as well as dip again) you get some back. Ebbs and flows is common in car pricing, Tesla must makes it's front page as they change MSRP monthly it seems.

 

[father_of_6]

not to mention when the price increases again (and it will, as well as dip again) you get some back. Ebbs and flows is common in car pricing, Tesla must makes it's front page as they change MSRP monthly it seems.

Yeah, I suspect come January 1st the demand will far exceed the supply. Then those that need one and are willing to pay more will be opening their wallets and begging for you to sell...

But you won't sell. Because at that time, you'll feel so much better about how much the car is "worth" that you'll want to keep it. Until a year later when prices drop again.

I got my Model 3 at the end of 2020, just a few months before they started installing heated steering wheels. I still cry myself to sleep every night thinking about my poor, cold hands on the wheel.

 

[Doug1000]

Yeah, I suspect come January 1st the demand will far exceed the supply. Then those that need one and are willing to pay more will be opening their wallets and begging for you to sell...

But you won't sell. Because at that time, you'll feel so much better about how much the car is "worth" that you'll want to keep it. Until a year later when prices drop again.

I got my Model 3 at the end of 2020, just a few months before they started installing heated steering wheels. I still cry myself to sleep every night thinking about my poor, cold hands on the wheel.

 

[Doug1000]

Good points, especially on the heated steering wheel, at least I got that! Not sure the price will go back up anywhere near what we paid. I will say this, I certainly will delay my Cybertruck order until the prices come DOWN.

 

[Doug1000]

This is asked often. Everyone who bought around the same time is in the same situation. However, that is all paper loss at this time. If you were to sell today, certainly you would take more of a bath. If you were to sell in...say...5 years, the depreciation curve flattens and you take less of one, not to mention when the price increases again (and it will, as well as dip again) you get some back. Ebbs and flows is common in car pricing, Tesla must makes it's front page as they change MSRP monthly it seems.

I'm feeling better already, you are right, after 5+ years, the used prices will stabilize. It is a paper loss only. Still your are also right, Tesla monthly price changes do make the front page, there should be a futures market for these vehicles!