Don't cancel your M3 just yet....

[T34ME]

... just wow.

People drive carelessly and cause injury to innocent people, people smoke and cause health issues to non-smokers around them, people drive ICE and cause health issues for people who ride bicycles to work. People often make decisions that cause significant problems for people around them.

 

[vinnie97]

While I won't "dislike" this post it is, in my opinion, these types of absolute "all or nothing", "you should believe this way" type of comments that are going to drive away more people than anything else. Who cares what the motivation is to buying an EV? Telling people what their priorities should or should not be is the quickest way to alienate people and drive away an other wise potential EV adopter. These cars are going to have to be compelling on all fronts, not just the fact that they are no emissions. Otherwise they will continue to be the playground for perceived environmentalist "nut cases". Please understand, I am not saying you are in any way a nut case. I am saying that there is a part of the population, a significant part I would say, that feel these types of environmental arguments to be futile and political in nature. Not really the way to make friends and influence people if you get my drift.

Dan

Well said, you articulated it in a much less provocative way than I could've. I had to bite my tongue er fingers.

 

[T34ME]

LOL, ok. We are a 1-car family, choose to pay more to live in a city and neighborhood where most of our outings can be done by foot, and I choose to ride a bicycle over 10 miles a day to/from work in any Seattle weather that isn't accumulating snow.

I applaud your commitment. You are not my enemy and I am not your enemy. In fact, I would probably agree with you on as many things as I do with my wife.

I wanted the 3 to work for us, but it just didn't/won't and in the meantime, replacing our current ICE car with an ICE vehicle comparable or "better" than the 3 (EV-ness aside) will have to do. I can sleep easy at night knowing that I've made the best transportation choice possible for my family, and world given our situation (needing a slightly bigger car soon, wife's vehicle demands, gas mileage). We could grab a new S, but would probably have to start skipping a few meals and contributing less to savings to make it work - not ideal for our long game.

I can say with confident certainty that I have been married to the same wonderful woman (Happy Valentines Day dearest) for more years than you have existed on earth. That commitment has been born of compromise, by both of us. I have an inkling of the family dynamics that you faced in your decision to compromise with your wife. You have stated your reasons for your decision to cancel at least a couple of times on this forum. No further justification on your part is required. I suggest you make the best of that decision and move forward without continuing to bash Tesla. I have a feeling you will be a model 3/Y owner sooner rather than never.

 

[Saghost]

I agree


I agree


I agree


I agreed with the three points you made above so I don't think I am missing anything.

I am not sure how the rest of you are missing the single point I am making. You can always find an ICE that is equal to or better than a model 3 when it comes to performance, comfort, size, TOC, etc. What is distinctive and compelling about the model 3 is that it is a BEV that competes head on with comparable ICE cars. That is Elon's vision and mission to change lifestyles by providing a viable and compelling alternative for personal transportation. He says it succinctly in his Zero Emissions temp. license plate.

One thing that is distinctive and compelling about the Model 3, sure. Not the only distinctive or compelling thing, not the only reason to buy.

Elon realizes that the Stone age didn't end due to a lack of stones and that forcing people to live less comfortable lives to accomplish something important seldom works, so he created a car that's appealing to a lot of groups of people for a bunch of different reasons - that also happens to be zero emission.

Yes, being renewable transportation is central to Tesla's goal and mission statement. But they knew they couldn't win by that alone, so they built a better car that's attractive to folks who don't care about emissions, too.

 

[bonaire]

If Tesla makes it to production on Gen 4 and hit somewhere around Musk's target of 20K base, which I think is quite possible given the trajectory of battery prices, they'll have reached that target for a lot of climates and most of the US. Certainly the populous parts.

There will remain the tougher eggs of colder climates in NA, northern interior of the US and most of Canada. That's going to take a shift to solid-state battery tech I expect. Probably some rethinking of construction of the vehicles for better heat insulation (which has generally been pretty sloppy since designers could count on the waste heat from ICE).

But after that? I expect the tables will seriously turn on gasoline because of pressure on the retail supply infrastructure. Right now gasoline retail is ubiquitous, and the demand for it means it can even be (and is) used as a loss-leader. Grocery stores do this. Corner stations don't make much on fuel, their margins are mostly in the convenience store they are really running whose traffic is driven by people stopping to fuel up.

When that collateral traffic starts drying up the inherent subsidy for the fuel price is going to shrink with it, and I predict we'll start seeing a spiral the other way in support infrastructure.

A US-saleable electric car having good range with $20k USD base will only happen if the factory is in a distressed region - perhaps Vietnam. NEVs in China are under $10k but nobody in American would really want one. Unless you have a GEM car you want to upgrade from. But we do need that "electric Altima" style car of 200-mile range, $20k in base price, no incentives. That is a goal I think all automakers need to have. I wanted to see it by 2020 - but perhaps will not ever see it based on inflation and depreciation of the buying power of the USD.

 

[ℬête Noire]

One thing that is distinctive and compelling about the Model 3, sure. Not the only distinctive or compelling thing, not the only reason to buy.

Elon realizes that the Stone age didn't end due to a lack of stones and that forcing people to live less comfortable lives to accomplish something important seldom works, so he created a car that's appealing to a lot of groups of people for a bunch of different reasons - that also happens to be zero emission.

Yes, being renewable transportation is central to Tesla's goal and mission statement. But they knew they couldn't win by that alone, so they built a better car that's attractive to folks who don't care about emissions, too.

So.
Much.
This.

I've hoped for a long time that EVs would matter, that the potential benefits T43me mentions would be realized, but I never thought it was imminent that they could until Tesla articulated and started executing on this strategy. Shortsighted narcissism is far too thick on the ground to start with, and isn't even necessary wrong if you aren't solving their needs, too.

 

[ℬête Noire]

A US-saleable electric car having good range with $20k USD base will only happen if the factory is in a distressed region - perhaps Vietnam. NEVs in China are under $10k but nobody in American would really want one. Unless you have a GEM car you want to upgrade from. But we do need that "electric Altima" style car of 200-mile range, $20k in base price, no incentives. That is a goal I think all automakers need to have. I wanted to see it by 2020 - but perhaps will not ever see it based on inflation and depreciation of the buying power of the USD.

Very likely it's coming in 5-6 years ($20K in today's dollars).

Battery prices have at least another 60-70% to drop, probably 50% within 5 years, with only modest incremental tech advances. This is key because the rest of an EV vehicle is cheaper to build than an ICE.

 

[Saghost]

Very likely it's coming in 5-6 years ($20K in today's dollars).

Battery prices have at least another 60-70% to drop, probably 50% within 5 years, with only modest incremental tech advances. This is key because the rest of an EV vehicle is cheaper to build than an ICE.

Keep in mind, the effective cost to a consumer of an EV is generally lower than an ICE of similar purchase price due to fuel and maintenance and longevity. You don't really need a $20k EV IMHO - you need an EV with a TCO that matches the TCO of a $20k ICE car (and an effective advertising/education campaign.)

 

[eAdopter]

Getting back to the OP, keep in mind that GM, Tesla, and Ford are now the three largest U.S. automakers by market capitalization.

 

[voip-ninja]

People drive carelessly and cause injury to innocent people, people smoke and cause health issues to non-smokers around them, people drive ICE and cause health issues for people who ride bicycles to work. People often make decisions that cause significant problems for people around them.

And I'm sure you being alive and consuming resources is causing significant issues for other people.

Doesn't change the fact that this is a free country and you're free to make your own choices and carry on as you like. It's not your job or anyone else's job to force your point of view on me.

Forcing point of view (in some countries as the point of a gun) is the coward's way out of not being able to win an actual argument.

 

[bonaire]

Keep in mind, the effective cost to a consumer of an EV is generally lower than an ICE of similar purchase price due to fuel and maintenance and longevity. You don't really need a $20k EV IMHO - you need an EV with a TCO that matches the TCO of a $20k ICE car (and an effective advertising/education campaign.)

Lots of uneducated consumers out there. You've seen the banter about "will have to replace battery every 3 years" and all that. The one consumer negative that does have legs is the 30+ % range reduction in winter. That itself is a big hurdle.

 

[Saghost]

Lots of uneducated consumers out there. You've seen the banter about "will have to replace battery every 3 years" and all that. The one consumer negative that does have legs is the 30+ % range reduction in winter. That itself is a big hurdle.

There is certainly a lot of FUD around EVs that needs to be dispelled, yes.

I actually don't feel the range reduction much at all - presumably because I drive ~20 miles on the normal work day and seldom more than 50 miles at a time unless it's a road trip, and the car is rated for ~240 miles.

It means a few more or a few longer stops on long road trips, yes - but the range loss is much less on those (it's mostly about the cold cabin and cold pack,) and the time is kinda invisible anyway since you're doing things while it charges and working with the percentage at destination from Nav rather than a clock anyway (might be noticeable if you did the exact same trip lots and lots of times in good and bad weather, but not otherwise.)

Actually, winter performance is an EV Pro in my book - smooth torque to make the most of limited traction, preheating (with heated seats, finally!) before you ever set foot in the car, nearly instant heat when you don't preheat. My winters with my old ICE cars were much less comfortable.

 

[Big-T]

LOL, ok. We are a 1-car family, choose to pay more to live in a city and neighborhood where most of our outings can be done by foot, and I choose to ride a bicycle over 10 miles a day to/from work in any Seattle weather that isn't accumulating snow. I wanted the 3 to work for us, but it just didn't/won't and in the meantime, replacing our current ICE car with an ICE vehicle comparable or "better" than the 3 (EV-ness aside) will have to do. I can sleep easy at night knowing that I've made the best transportation choice possible for my family, and world given our situation (needing a slightly bigger car soon, wife's vehicle demands, gas mileage). We could grab a new S, but would probably have to start skipping a few meals and contributing less to savings to make it work - not ideal for our long game.



More comfort, reliability, and peace of mind that your car won't be stuck in a service center for a while-longer than a while. Jury is still out on reliability of the 3, but if we ever came out to a newer car that wouldn't start that morning, that'd be the last time we'd tolerate that (eve or not, wife would never stop talking about how the car doesn't work and wouldn't feel comfortable relying on it to get our kids around; it would either need to be fixed with certainty or replaced with a different vehicle). We've always driven Hondas/Acuras and have only had to spend around 2-3 hours per year at a dealership or 3rd party shop getting oil changes. Otherwise, the cars just work.



Agree. But I need a car soon and no later than summer, and simply can't rely on Elon's estimates. Two rear facing car seats will not fit in our ILX, and strapping an infant and toddler to my bike or trying to transport them on a bus across the city for medical appointments just aren't options we're willing to explore.



Nice as in a safe, quiet, comfortable, reliable, and dare I say luxurious ride. Our son slept a lot in the car during his first year, and I assume our next kid will sleep in the car too. The Model 3 is a nice looking EV (externally at least) that's probably safe (won't know until crash test ratings are available) with great EV range. However, if you're apples-apples comparing it to a 330i or A4, like my wife and a lot of the mass market are and will, I just don't think it's a superior car. It was a bit loud and choppy feeling on the road compared to our lame, tight suspension ILX (read: less comfortable ride than our crappy ILX's). If all I wanted was a new luxury car and didn't care about going EV, I'd rather throw $50k at a BMW or Audi instead of a 3, and think a lot of people simply looking for a nice new luxury car will feel similarly after they get to ride in or drive one.



I'm saying that, after spending a few hours in a 3, the $50k version should be priced at $35k, and I'm sorta dreading seeing what the $35k interior will end up being. Making the PUP interior standard on the $35k version would make it a home run compared to other luxury sedans in its class. I do not think that the interior of the PUP 3, other than the all glass roof, is that nice, premium, or qualifies as luxurious. The fake plastic wood, other internal plastics, and especially piano black center console come across as cheapish. The seating material and carpeting also seemed kinda cheap. I think that Tesla can do better, and hopefully they will at some point.

Hey 206er, I echo A LOT of what you're saying, you may want to check out the new 2018 Honda accord Touring, aside from it being an ICE vehicle, on paper it hits a lot of things that the Model 3 is promising or/promised:

• 35k car (really)
  
• 0-60 in 5.5 sec
• HUD
• Rain sensing wipers
• Driver aids like TACC / Lane Assist / etc
• 2 LCD screens
• Leather

It goes on and on for features - the one thing it doesn't have is the cool factor of a Tesla (and yes it's not an EV), but if my SR model 3 gets pushed out beyond Q3, I also can't wait longer and will be taking a hard look at this, it'll tick a lot of the boxes. Sure it'll be like dropping the supermodel for a plain looking person with a lot of other great attributes but hey love the one you're with I guess. Here's a video review.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Keep in mind, the effective cost to a consumer of an EV is generally lower than an ICE of similar purchase price due to fuel and maintenance and longevity. You don't really need a $20k EV IMHO - you need an EV with a TCO that matches the TCO of a $20k ICE car (and an effective advertising/education campaign.)

1) Rehash of bonaire's point; "New" needs to be clearly better. The forces of FUD are mighty and they are coming, New's case must withstand them. You'll find it expressed as a number of ways, and with various supposed factors by which New must be better, but it really boils down to "no brainer"....because that's pretty much what you'll have to work with a lot of the time. People that can't be bothered to think it through, because they've got a whole lot other things going on in their lives that they are trying to sort out, too.
2) Another facet to #1; "Pay more now and you'll get this treat later." This is an inherently harder sell. I wish more optimism in my fellow humans was warranted but we've got some hardwired mistrust of this concept buried deep in our lizard brain and not all are up to overcoming that. *shrug*
3) Depending on the state of infrastructure at a given point, there can already be some extra cost there anyway. I dropped $700 to set up my house with a dedicated 240V line into my garage, and that was DIY. Sure I'll get ROI for that within months, and this will ease over time as infrastructure shifts, but initially there will be a bit of bump there.
4) I want better. Screw this treading water crap, we can do better for ourselves.

 

[AlanSqB]

Hey 206er, I echo A LOT of what you're saying, you may want to check out the new 2018 Honda accord Touring, aside from it being an ICE vehicle, on paper it hits a lot of things that the Model 3 is promising or/promised:

• 35k car (really)
  
• 0-60 in 5.5 sec
• HUD
• Rain sensing wipers
• Driver aids like TACC / Lane Assist / etc
• 2 LCD screens
• Leather

It goes on and on for features - the one thing it doesn't have is the cool factor of a Tesla (and yes it's not an EV), but if my SR model 3 gets pushed out beyond Q3, I also can't wait longer and will be taking a hard look at this, it'll tick a lot of the boxes. Sure it'll be like dropping the supermodel for a plain looking person with a lot of other great attributes but hey love the one you're with I guess. Here's a video review.

If you are going that route, consider the PHEV Clarity at least. It has most of the features listed above and most people will be able to do all daily driving in full EV mode. 37K gets you the full touring model which is still eligible for tax incentives. In my case that brings the total cost down to about $25k.

The accord is a fine car, but the Clarity gives you EV options with little compromise.

 

[Hitman007]

Another "bankrupt by the end of year" thread by you again? Nice try at starting a new one but you're already 1/4 into the year from the start of your last thread... so you only have 8 months left and I'm counting... your time is running out:

Having Tesla bankrupt in a year is a near impossible task even with the worst bottlenecks in production imaginable. Anyone who says anything to the contrary just needs to take a look at Sirius and its flirtation with bankruptcy and how hard that is to do when so much has been built up, since creditors will work out deals, and people will come in and buy it out and take over. No one will throw this baby down the drain within a year. Of course, Tesla is not past potential difficult times, and even possible buyouts, restructuring, etc. But bankruptcy in a year is utter nonsense that insults the intelligence of anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of how big business and bankruptcy work.

My prediction on Model 3/Tesla

Even Professor Altman, who developed the widely accepted test for this prediction based on financial statements requires a minimum two year period when the result predicts bankruptcy -- because bankruptcy within a year is difficult given the process and statutory time limits. But we know financial statements and statutory time limits are well beyond your comprehension. And to make it even worse, when called out, your concern suddenly turns to my "misguided soul" -- which means gibberish. Please just throw in the towel instead of using religious imagery that only makes you look foolish. It takes a big man to admit when he's wrong. Something tells me we'll never hear that from you, though, even in one year's time.

My prediction on Model 3/Tesla

Man I sound grouchy in that last one.

Tesla is just months from a total collapse, says hedge-fund manager

 

[ℬête Noire]

Tesla is just months from a total collapse, says hedge-fund manager

 

[Surfer]

Hey 206er, I echo A LOT of what you're saying, you may want to check out the new 2018 Honda accord Touring, aside from it being an ICE vehicle, on paper it hits a lot of things that the Model 3 is promising or/promised:

• 35k car (really)
  
• 0-60 in 5.5 sec
• HUD
• Rain sensing wipers
• Driver aids like TACC / Lane Assist / etc
• 2 LCD screens
• Leather

It goes on and on for features - the one thing it doesn't have is the cool factor of a Tesla (and yes it's not an EV), but if my SR model 3 gets pushed out beyond Q3, I also can't wait longer and will be taking a hard look at this, it'll tick a lot of the boxes. Sure it'll be like dropping the supermodel for a plain looking person with a lot of other great attributes but hey love the one you're with I guess. Here's a video review.

I’m not Tesla fanboy but the last Honda Accord I drove sucks. For $35K get a heavily discounted Alfa Giulia instead. Or a BMW.
Honda Accord really sucks driving wise. Zero fun.

 

[seattlite2004]

Tesla is just months from a total collapse, says hedge-fund manager

SPAM .. Maybe.

Serious questions.... What happens with the $1K deposits if they fold? Are the vehicles still drivable with all current features without the motherahip?

 

[ℬête Noire]

SPAM .. Maybe.

Maybe? Hahaha.

By last Q numbers Tesla still had something like 2 years of cash burn in hand, and that was still under conditions of negligible M3 sales. I thought I'd already hit Ignore on 'Hitman007' for past nonsense he'd been spewing. Have now corrected that oversight.

P.S. If somehow it came to pass that Tesla went into receivership without you having gotten around to pulling out your $1K, it'd probably take a little extra time for the courts to get you your money. It's all highly hypothetical what would happen exactly because it'd depend on exact structure of the finances at the time and that's inherently an unknown because it'd have to be a lot different than now and what's reasonably expected from the current position.