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"Down then Up" or "Just Up"

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by austinEV, Apr 26, 2016.

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For 2016 Bulls, "Down then Up" or "Just Up"?

Poll closed May 3, 2016.
  1. "Down then Up". Q1ER will be meh to bad and stock will sag a little in the summer.

    54.3%
  2. "Just Up". Market has priced in Q1 delivery miss and will look at nice guidance, TE/GF news.

    21.7%
  3. Bearish for 2016. Down overall

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Something else. Detail in comments

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Flat for 2016.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Hockey stick: Flat until good news happens.

    23.9%
  1. austinEV

    austinEV Active Member

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    There seems to be two Bullish scenarios being compared in these threads for 2016. It's a good problem to have; debating the PATH to higher prices, but the path makes a big difference on how we take advantage of such a move. Weigh in below.
     
  2. Fallenone

    Fallenone Active Member

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    #2 Fallenone, Apr 26, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
    I'm thinking something else. Basically sideways until really huge EPS beat, FCF positive, and capital raise announced in Aug.

    Edit: changed my vote to Hockey stick.
     
  3. Familial Rhino

    Familial Rhino Endangerous Herbivore

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    #3 Familial Rhino, Apr 26, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
    Voted for "Just Up".

    Edit: Reading Fallenone's answer, I agree. I really wanted to say "Not Down".
    Edit2: Changed my vote to Hockey stick.
     
  4. austinEV

    austinEV Active Member

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    added some choices.
     
  5. Jonathan Hewitt

    Jonathan Hewitt Active Member

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    I voted Hockey stick with the idea that "flat" is +/- ~$20/share. I think based on recent volatility that this is "flat."
     
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  6. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    I voted "down then up" for no other good reason that I think there's a strong urge among a not insignificant share of the investors in TSLA to have themselves a little sell-off for no particular good reason other than wanting out of failed short positions. We've seen many times with the ER how there have been attempts at huge sell-offs immediately after the release of the ER letter, only to open the next day with a big gap-up. Almost like there's this pre-programmed sell-off executed regardless of what's in the letter, I guess to try to influence how people read it. I mean to try to influence people's interpretation of the letter (there's always going to be some good and some bad) by creating a dip and hoping that people therefore will perceive the news as overall bad.
     
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  7. austinEV

    austinEV Active Member

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    Agree. "flat" is trading in a range. $20 is reasonable
     
  8. surfside

    surfside Member

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    i voted hockey stick as well.

    given the implicit question of the poll is what will Q1 earnings bring (positive response or negative response), i will give my thoughts on the Q1 earnings.

    the big thing i have been grappling with lately (and i'm sure everyone else) is what tesla is going to say at their Q1 ER about the acceleration of model 3 production. it is the 400k reservation elephant in the room, so tesla cannot just be silent on it. and if they don't address it head on in their shareholder letter you can bet your bottom dollar that it will be the first question asked by (any self-respecting) analysts.

    i don't see how elon avoids talking about it, even if it is around the edges. and along those lines i feel like whatever comes out of that discussion is going to have to impact analysts' projection models. 500k cars a year in 2020 just isn't going to cut it with this kind of demand. i could see elon either being a bit coy about capital raises (we don't currently have plans to but will be opportunistic as in the past) or coming out strong and saying here is our plan to increase production to 1 million cars in 2020; we don't have an imminent need to raise capital given our current cash flow projections, but we reserve the right to come to market at any time.

    in any case, i don't see how he gets away from the Q1 earnings call without divulging some details (news), so i guess i fall more in the just up camp.

    any thoughts?

    surfside
     
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  9. austinEV

    austinEV Active Member

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    I think they can dodge the question if they like. They can just say they plan to self-finance, repeating the message from the last ER. Then say they will do an "opportunistic" raise if they feel its best. That is the 2013 playbook. The current statements on the record are that they can self-finance (Q4ER) and that they are "rethinking" their plans (Tweet). So they can just say they are still thinking. If so, that validates Deliberate "DTU" since they are walking past opportunities to give positive guidance.
     
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  10. Familial Rhino

    Familial Rhino Endangerous Herbivore

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    I don't see how they can state they plan to self-finance with a straight face, given the current number of reservations in the queue.
     
  11. surfside

    surfside Member

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    #11 surfside, Apr 26, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
    i agree that they can dodge the question of a capital raise, but i guess what i was trying to say is that i don't see how they can (or why they would, unless they are trying to encourage DTU) dodge the questions about the acceleration of production. and for me i think their response to that question will more likely than not drive the stock up as people digest tangible recognition of higher production amounts sooner than previously expected.

    EDIT to add one last point -- given elon's comments about and attitude towards TSLA's stock price previously (essentially that he tries not to think about it), at the end of the day, i guess i just don't believe at my core that elon is going to intentionally do things to bring the stock down. now i think he masterfully played the shorts with a barrage of good news in 2013 (part 5 of a 3 part announcement), but i just don't see him manipulating news/announcements in such a way so as to encourage the stock to go down so that more shorts pile on for a bigger rise later. that just doesn't seem like the way elon thinks from my time following him and this company. i think he is going to call it like it is, and if people don't like it the stock will go down after earnings....if people see the long term potential the stock will go up following earnings. but something that i am confident of is that elon knows that the good news will eventually come and overcome the shorts, so it doesn't really matter if it is DTU or just up.

    surfside
     
  12. austinEV

    austinEV Active Member

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    Let the people on the call chuckle and point out that isn't really answering the question. They can just be coy if they want. But not without giving up the game.
     
  13. Familial Rhino

    Familial Rhino Endangerous Herbivore

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    Hence the "straight face". :)
     
  14. doctoxics

    doctoxics Member

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    #14 doctoxics, Apr 26, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
    I voted "just up". The stock price is holding up remarkably well considering the production miss for Q1. The financials for Q1 have been priced in; the guidance for Q1 should give the stock price a boost. An acceleration of Gigafactory1 construction, a decrease in time to M3 release, and an increase in M3 production ramp should all provide a major boost to the stock price. Then there is the achievement of positive cash flow in Q2-Q3 and the acceleration of a lucrative energy storage business. On top of this is the fact that the shorts have shot their wad and have little ammo left to push down the stock price. What's not to like as a shareholder?
     
  15. EinSV

    EinSV Member

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    #15 EinSV, Apr 26, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
    Voted "Just Up."

    Far from a sure thing but I think there are better than even odds that the recent actions by Tesla mean there will be a release of info on TE and perhaps other things in the near term that will be sufficiently credible that, combined with other factors, will cause a TSLA price jump.

    After that, there is a reasonable chance that the dominoes start to fall, there is a short squeeze and a cap raise. So many things to invest in to make the car business ramp 5-10X in a few years (GF 2, Factory 2, supercharger network, service centers, supply chain, tons of engineering) there is a reasonable chance they'll want to start sooner than later.

    Also, even with a negative ER for Q1 it is hard to see a huge drop in the stock price given the massive Model 3 orders which have not yet been priced into the stock. Tesla is fighting hard against the strongest bear argument -- i.e. that Model 3 will be a money loser, which they wouldn't do right now if for some reason they were ok with the stock falling temporarily.
     
  16. rdalcanto

    rdalcanto Member

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    Since I consider going down to 235 after earnings as staying flat, I chose hockey stick. I do think going to 235 is in the cards. I just hope it quickly comes back to the 250 range before going to 300 after Q2 ER.
     
  17. Hogfighter

    Hogfighter Professional Lurker

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    DTU camp, although hockey stick could happen as well. And by 'down', I'd be quite surprised to see anything lower than 200. I'd be buying like crazy at that price point, and I ain't alone.
     
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  18. Fallenone

    Fallenone Active Member

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    TA wise, looks like D. Hopefully TU :)
     
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  19. austinEV

    austinEV Active Member

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    Wow there has been a surge in DTU. Prior to 2 trading days ago, the leading vote was sideways then up. Now that the price has barely nosed down DTU has fairweather fans coming in :) BTW, voting closes tomorrow. I figure after Wed we will basically know.
     

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