There seems to be two Bullish scenarios being compared in these threads for 2016. It's a good problem to have; debating the PATH to higher prices, but the path makes a big difference on how we take advantage of such a move. Weigh in below.
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I voted Hockey stick with the idea that "flat" is +/- ~$20/share. I think based on recent volatility that this is "flat."
i voted hockey stick as well.
given the implicit question of the poll is what will Q1 earnings bring (positive response or negative response), i will give my thoughts on the Q1 earnings.
the big thing i have been grappling with lately (and i'm sure everyone else) is what tesla is going to say at their Q1 ER about the acceleration of model 3 production. it is the 400k reservation elephant in the room, so tesla cannot just be silent on it. and if they don't address it head on in their shareholder letter you can bet your bottom dollar that it will be the first question asked by (any self-respecting) analysts.
i don't see how elon avoids talking about it, even if it is around the edges. and along those lines i feel like whatever comes out of that discussion is going to have to impact analysts' projection models. 500k cars a year in 2020 just isn't going to cut it with this kind of demand. i could see elon either being a bit coy about capital raises (we don't currently have plans to but will be opportunistic as in the past) or coming out strong and saying here is our plan to increase production to 1 million cars in 2020; we don't have an imminent need to raise capital given our current cash flow projections, but we reserve the right to come to market at any time.
in any case, i don't see how he gets away from the Q1 earnings call without divulging some details (news), so i guess i fall more in the just up camp.
any thoughts?
surfside
I don't see how they can state they plan to self-finance with a straight face, given the current number of reservations in the queue.I think they can dodge the question if they like. They can just say they plan to self-finance, repeating the message from the last ER. Then say they will do an "opportunistic" raise if they feel its best. That is the 2013 playbook. The current statements on the record are that they can self-finance (Q4ER) and that they are "rethinking" their plans (Tweet). So they can just say they are still thinking. If so, that validates Deliberate "DTU" since they are walking past opportunities to give positive guidance.
i agree that they can dodge the question of a capital raise, but i guess what i was trying to say is that i don't see how they can (or why they would, unless they are trying to encourage DTU) dodge the questions about the acceleration of production. and for me i think their response to that question will more likely than not drive the stock up as people digest tangible recognition of higher production amounts sooner than previously expected.I think they can dodge the question if they like. They can just say they plan to self-finance, repeating the message from the last ER. Then say they will do an "opportunistic" raise if they feel its best. That is the 2013 playbook. The current statements on the record are that they can self-finance (Q4ER) and that they are "rethinking" their plans (Tweet). So they can just say they are still thinking. If so, that validates Deliberate "DTU" since they are walking past opportunities to give positive guidance.
I don't see how they can state they plan to self-finance with a straight face, given the current number of reservations in the queue.
Hence the "straight face".Let the people on the call chuckle and point out that isn't really answering the question. They can just be coy if they want. But not without giving up the game.