But common sense says that it isn't even close to being a statistically significant sample. Many people only enter their data when they configure (I certainly did), so I imagine it under-represents deferred orders by a huge margin.
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Dual Motor priority?
- Thread starter Rss7
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But common sense says that it isn't even close to being a statistically significant sample. Many people only enter their data when they configure (I certainly did), so I imagine it under-represents deferred orders by a huge margin.
I fully understand the implications of statistical significance and sample size.
I was responding to one thing only: The assertion made by LCR1 that in order for the spreadsheet to be useful it has to include every reservation holder. Period.
Responding as though I said anything other than that is arguing a point that I didn't make.
Pure speculation, but I have a feeling that Tesla is planning to turn on AWD configurations ~ June 10th, with deliveries starting July 2.
If my suspicions are correct, the white interior could be enabled anytime from mid-March too, depending on Q1 & Q2 projected S/X deliveries.
If my suspicions are correct, the white interior could be enabled anytime from mid-March too, depending on Q1 & Q2 projected S/X deliveries.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
But, once they are at 5k / wk, all the deliveries to date will be outnumbered in one week of non-owner deliveries.
No the assertion was that you need some sort of reliable number, not only do you not have every reservation to know for sure, you don't have even half a percent of them to get
Has nothing to do with what my statement was referencing.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Original post:
The rest of them:
So my original post was that people would trade in, then the comment about money, my response that 99% of current M3 owners already owns an S/X so money isn't a concern for most. Nothing said after that is relevant to my post that people who wanted a M3 now are willing to trade later for an dual motor and/or performance model.
And to think that a car selling for $10K over net price now will suddenly be a 30K loss is ridiculous, even for me to say. Sure they won't carry a premium but they won't loss half their value over night.
Additionally: Your comment also assumes that only people who currently own teslas have money and once they are producing 5K/wk those people couldn't afford to upgrade if they want. 25% of households in america make more than 100K. Of the 127 million households in America, that's 31 Million homes, tesla has sold less than 200K cars. Think about it .
The rest of them:
So my original post was that people would trade in, then the comment about money, my response that 99% of current M3 owners already owns an S/X so money isn't a concern for most. Nothing said after that is relevant to my post that people who wanted a M3 now are willing to trade later for an dual motor and/or performance model.
And to think that a car selling for $10K over net price now will suddenly be a 30K loss is ridiculous, even for me to say. Sure they won't carry a premium but they won't loss half their value over night.
Additionally: Your comment also assumes that only people who currently own teslas have money and once they are producing 5K/wk those people couldn't afford to upgrade if they want. 25% of households in america make more than 100K. Of the 127 million households in America, that's 31 Million homes, tesla has sold less than 200K cars. Think about it .
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Quinnipiac is well known and trusted in the polling industry. Their sample rate for a US national poll is around 1,250 US voters. Given that US voters in the last election were about 63 million people that works out to a sample rate of about .002% of the voters. That means the spreadsheet has a 100 times larger sample rate than trusted national polling. Now it's probably skewed somewhat because almost everyone on the forum would be considered an enthusiast but the sample size is not insignificant.
The sample is hugely skewed. Not only is everybody an enthusiast, but mostly people who are eager to configure are the ones paying attention and entering information in the spreadsheet at all (as I said before I didn't fill out the spreadsheet until after I ordered). The entire science of polling is getting a representative sample. To try and argue that the spreadsheet is reflective of anything is just wrong. And if you are making some abstract point that has nothing to do with how accurate the percentages on the spreadsheet are then who cares.
sperkin
Active Member
I would think the configurator reigns supreme as between the two. Though, to reconcile, it may mean that dual motor will be "first" available in mid 2018, but not "really" available until Late 2018. I have decided not to rely on (at least pay no attention to) the estimator or configurator. I sleep better that way.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You may want to read a bit more on this. The national polls were within margin of error. What they got wrong was specific swing states, that happened to matter a lot. Ofcourse, the pundits got it quite wrong.
Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton
It Wasn't the Polls That Missed, It Was the Pundits | RealClearPolitics!
We are a very late reservation holder and owner (invite 2/14/18) and received the exact same windows as you posted. I think the window where you get to "configure or hold place in line" is just an estimate when Tesla in general expects to start shipment of those versions out, not that you will get one then. The window you get with the actual Delivery estimate for each version is your personal timeframe and the one I would go by. I think it more accurately reflects your place in line.
There were weeks/months of owner invites (those who reserved from 3/31 and before us) that will come before us in configuring for AWD and it seems reasonable to me that they would be able to order their AWD weeks/months before us. Some of the early owners have said they have a mid-2018 AWD delivery estimate and ours was Aug-Oct 2018 and last updated to late-2018. It also makes sense that early (3/31) non-owners would fall in the delivery line right behind the end of the line deferring owners.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
It's not the absolute number of people in the spreadsheet, it's whether or not they are a statistically representative sample of the orders. There are many reasons the people in the spreadsheet could be "different" than the reservation population. However, for this purpose, the only thing that matters is people who have received invites and have deferred (or not).
DanL3
Member
I also am a very late reservation holder.
I expect that Telsa will at some time decide that the dual motor is ready for production and at that time they will add it to the configurator for anyone that had previously been able to configure. So on that day, they will get more dual motor configuration requests than they can make. At that time all invitations to us very late reservation holders will stop. The time from configure to VIN will go way up. Maybe the 3-6 weeks will become 1-3 months for those that configure dual motors. Tesla will work through all of those and then get back to inviting the very late reservation holders to configure after they have shipped dual motor cars to all the earlier people that had deferred configuration.
By the way, the same thing will happen when they allow the SR battery.
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