Elon "About to end range anxiety"

[Kevin Harney]

Some guy posted that his car apparently had an early software update. (post#404).

Before the update, the car used around 310-320 Wh/mile. After the update, it used around 270 Wh/mile.

Assuming the car has 80 kWh available for use:

80kWh*1000=80000 Wh Total energy reserve.

Divide total energy reserve by energy consumed per mile: (before and after update) Oh, and lets assume the car used 320 Wh/mile before update.

80000/320=250 miles. EPA-spec is 265 miles. (i think?)

Now lets apply the "data" we have from post#404:

Assume 270Wh/mile, and usable reserve of 80kWh:

80000/270=296.29miles.

That´s an improvement of:

296.29/250=1.185=18.5 %, quite a lot, if it´s true that is. Now I have no idea what the available energy is to the actual engine, but let´s assume it is 85 kWh:

85000/270=314.8 miles. (But this is probably unrealistic)

Like the math. Thanks. How does 30 miles eliminate range anxiety ? I believe that they will announce a major partner in superchargeres like McDonalds or Exxon with thousands of locations all over the world. to add to that.

 

[sandpiper]

If you were the CEO of a couple of companies and on the board of a few more with probably an 80-90 hour work week... would you spend time on TMC?

Oh wait, there are people here who probably have 80-90 hour work weeks. Not sure I proved my point

I'm sure he doesn't waste a lot of time here. But I'm sure he checks on it on occasion. There's real business value in getting opinions straight from your customer - especially if you're the type of manager who digs into the details.

 

[skilly]

If you had devoted a decade and substantial amount of your energy to developing something, and if there was one forum of enthusiasts from around the world who generally love what you've done, and were regularly offering opinions (admittedly of varying quality), would you occasionally check it out?

Of course Elon checks on this once in a while. I'm sure he does more-so after what he knows will be a controversial comment/tweet/press release. It's probably the one way that he can get DIRECT personal and unfiltered feedback from his most dedicated supporters.

I also wouldn't be surprised if somebody in his organization is assigned to post here once in a while, not as a shill, but to help manage expectations. Perhaps Elon himself does it.

I think that's a stretch. Perhaps of course, but TMC is full of "pro-Tesla" people...not necessarily a place that he needs to change opinion on.

And that person managing expectations - all I can say to that is good luck with that. There is a lot of great information on this site, but when it comes to speculation about TM, such as this most recent post, it would be like shuffling deck chairs on the titanic. The conspiracy theorists and overall interpretation would be just an overwhelming sea of "noise" to sift through. He's better off waiting for the proactive members that reach out to his email. Then they can collect that data for patterns and then craft a response with his signature, while its really written by an intern after it past legal and communications approvals.

 

[SteveS0353]

Range anxiety stems from perceived lack of fuel to reach a destination. This happens in ICE cars too, but is mitigated to a large extent by the ubiquitous number of gas stations. One drawback of the EV experience today, even with Supercharging is that it takes time to charge, more than filling a gas tank. So, to end range anxiety for Model S owners, or at least reduce it to the same level of anxiety as with ICE cars, there would need to be two things happen -- a rapid and dramatic increase in charging infrastructure, and a significant decrease in charging time. Press releases are usually reserved for public announcements which impact 3rd parties, potential new owners, analysts, ..., as well as the faithful. So, here is my guess...

1. One thing that has intrigued me is that VisibleTesla reports shore current (going into the charge port) and battery current, and they are not close when the car is charging. I've noticed that the battery current is typically around 50% of the shore current. There is another thread here about some cars being limited to 60kW charging, with all sorts of wild speculation about limiting charging for "locals" at SuperChargers. Assuming 100% efficiency for a second, if 120kW peak power can be delivered to the car, an 85kWh battery pack (75kWh usable capacity) can be charged from dead empty, whatever that is, to 100% in 37.5 minutes (assuming no taper, linear accumulation of charge,...). That corresponds to a range increase of 265 miles in 40 minutes. Connecting the dots for a second, perhaps the Tesla engineers have parsed the massive amount of data they have accumulated with real-world Supercharger use, and realized that they can get more energy into the battery much more quickly without risking the longevity of the battery pack. Perhaps the OTA software upgrade could be to remove or significantly modify the taper in the charge characteristic, and increase the amount of power the Supercharger can dump into the battery such that 60kW peak power is enough to charge the battery the promised 170 miles in 30 minutes. At 60kW peak power, the losses are smaller, both in the Supercharger and in the car, and the peak demand is lower at the SuperCharger site. At 120kW, assuming everything is linear, a model S could accumulate 170 miles in 15 minutes -- now that's getting close to filling an ICE gas tank.
2. The press conference will announce a partnership with a worldwide partner to make Superchargers rapidly ubiquitous.

If both those (or something along those lines is announced on Thursday) then EV range anxiety would be essentially mitigated, impacts the entire fleet, has worldwide impact,...

Just my $0.02

 

[skilly]

Like the math. Thanks. How does 30 miles eliminate range anxiety ? I believe that they will announce a major partner in superchargeres like McDonalds or Exxon with thousands of locations all over the world. to add to that.

unless its Superchargers (which would be mucho banko) you still have the other aspect of range anxiety which is a LOT of time for charging.

 

[Kevin Harney]

Range anxiety stems from perceived lack of fuel to reach a destination. This happens in ICE cars too, but is mitigated to a large extent by the ubiquitous number of gas stations. One drawback of the EV experience today, even with Supercharging is that it takes time to charge, more than filling a gas tank. So, to end range anxiety for Model S owners, or at least reduce it to the same level of anxiety as with ICE cars, there would need to be two things happen -- a rapid and dramatic increase in charging infrastructure, and a significant decrease in charging time. Press releases are usually reserved for public announcements which impact 3rd parties, potential new owners, analysts, ..., as well as the faithful. So, here is my guess...

1. One thing that has intrigued me is that VisibleTesla reports shore current (going into the charge port) and battery current, and they are not close when the car is charging. I've noticed that the battery current is typically around 50% of the shore current. There is another thread here about some cars being limited to 60kW charging, with all sorts of wild speculation about limiting charging for "locals" at SuperChargers. Assuming 100% efficiency for a second, if 120kW peak power can be delivered to the car, an 85kWh battery pack (75kWh usable capacity) can be charged from dead empty, whatever that is, to 100% in 37.5 minutes (assuming no taper, linear accumulation of charge,...). That corresponds to a range increase of 265 miles in 40 minutes. Connecting the dots for a second, perhaps the Tesla engineers have parsed the massive amount of data they have accumulated with real-world Supercharger use, and realized that they can get more energy into the battery much more quickly without risking the longevity of the battery pack. Perhaps the OTA software upgrade could be to remove or significantly modify the taper in the charge characteristic, and increase the amount of power the Supercharger can dump into the battery such that 60kW peak power is enough to charge the battery the promised 170 miles in 30 minutes. At 60kW peak power, the losses are smaller, both in the Supercharger and in the car, and the peak demand is lower at the SuperCharger site. At 120kW, assuming everything is linear, a model S could accumulate 170 miles in 15 minutes -- now that's getting close to filling an ICE gas tank.
2. The press conference will announce a partnership with a worldwide partner to make Superchargers rapidly ubiquitous.

If both those (or something along those lines is announced on Thursday) then EV range anxiety would be essentially mitigated, impacts the entire fleet, has worldwide impact,...

Just my $0.02

+100000 that is my guess also

- - - Updated - - -

unless its Superchargers (which would be mucho banko) you still have the other aspect of range anxiety which is a LOT of time for charging.

I do not think most people are afraid of charging times. They are afraid of running out of juice. But yes a SC at each McDonalds. Stop for a bite to eat and head on out. IMHO that would be HUGE !!

 

[dhrivnak]

Maybe he will announce the Roadster battery upgrade is ready and give a reasonable price. Knowing there will be a cost effective battery upgrade will also give many Model S customers comfort.

 

[skilly]

Range anxiety stems from perceived lack of fuel to reach a destination. This happens in ICE cars too, but is mitigated to a large extent by the ubiquitous number of gas stations. One drawback of the EV experience today, even with Supercharging is that it takes time to charge, more than filling a gas tank. So, to end range anxiety for Model S owners, or at least reduce it to the same level of anxiety as with ICE cars, there would need to be two things happen -- a rapid and dramatic increase in charging infrastructure, and a significant decrease in charging time. Press releases are usually reserved for public announcements which impact 3rd parties, potential new owners, analysts, ..., as well as the faithful. So, here is my guess...

1. One thing that has intrigued me is that VisibleTesla reports shore current (going into the charge port) and battery current, and they are not close when the car is charging. I've noticed that the battery current is typically around 50% of the shore current. There is another thread here about some cars being limited to 60kW charging, with all sorts of wild speculation about limiting charging for "locals" at SuperChargers. Assuming 100% efficiency for a second, if 120kW peak power can be delivered to the car, an 85kWh battery pack (75kWh usable capacity) can be charged from dead empty, whatever that is, to 100% in 37.5 minutes (assuming no taper, linear accumulation of charge,...). That corresponds to a range increase of 265 miles in 40 minutes. Connecting the dots for a second, perhaps the Tesla engineers have parsed the massive amount of data they have accumulated with real-world Supercharger use, and realized that they can get more energy into the battery much more quickly without risking the longevity of the battery pack. Perhaps the OTA software upgrade could be to remove or significantly modify the taper in the charge characteristic, and increase the amount of power the Supercharger can dump into the battery such that 60kW peak power is enough to charge the battery the promised 170 miles in 30 minutes. At 60kW peak power, the losses are smaller, both in the Supercharger and in the car, and the peak demand is lower at the SuperCharger site. At 120kW, assuming everything is linear, a model S could accumulate 170 miles in 15 minutes -- now that's getting close to filling an ICE gas tank.
2. The press conference will announce a partnership with a worldwide partner to make Superchargers rapidly ubiquitous.

If both those (or something along those lines is announced on Thursday) then EV range anxiety would be essentially mitigated, impacts the entire fleet, has worldwide impact,...

Just my $0.02

exactly what I said, but you said better

The only thing that I would add is a hope that they could increase the size of usable capacity - not a double E so unsure about the rules/restrictions in this regards. Ultimately, I think if they could expand the charging infrastructure and reduce charge timing, its going to have a significant impact...the same type of impact that Elon is foreshadowing.

 

[iadbound]

If you had devoted a decade and substantial amount of your energy to developing something, and if there was one forum of enthusiasts from around the world who generally love what you've done, and were regularly offering opinions (admittedly of varying quality), would you occasionally check it out?

Of course Elon checks on this once in a while. I'm sure he does more-so after what he knows will be a controversial comment/tweet/press release. It's probably the one way that he can get DIRECT personal and unfiltered feedback from his most dedicated supporters.

I also wouldn't be surprised if somebody in his organization is assigned to post here once in a while, not as a shill, but to help manage expectations. Perhaps Elon himself does it.

Elon may read these forums from time-to-time. However, I doubt Elon or somebody else acting at his or Tesla's direction is secretly posting here. It's the sort of thing the lawyers frown on when you're a publicly traded company. The last thing you need in a SEC investigation or a shareholders derivative suit is discovery of your CEO's secret accounts where he can post trade secrets, misdirection, or stock-pumping nonsense.

 

[Beckler]

I think there is some over-analysis going on about the wording. He's probably exaggerating a bit and typing off-the-cuff thoughts because he's excited about whatever it is. ("So much for range anxiety!" would be something similar.) It doesn't mean it technically and by definition ends range anxiety. He's not some god whose sentences can be parsed to determine exact meaning.

 

[sandpiper]

I think that's a stretch. Perhaps of course, but TMC is full of "pro-Tesla" people...not necessarily a place that he needs to change opinion on.

And that person managing expectations - all I can say to that is good luck with that.

No debate about that! It would be like trying to divert a river with a spoon.

There is a lot of great information on this site, but when it comes to speculation about TM, such as this most recent post, it would be like shuffling deck chairs on the titanic. The conspiracy theorists and overall interpretation would be just an overwhelming sea of "noise" to sift through. He's better off waiting for the proactive members that reach out to his email. Then they can collect that data for patterns and then craft a response with his signature, while its really written by an intern after it past legal and communications approvals.

I don't buy it. When you run a company it's VERY tough to get the raw opinions of your customers. Every layer of management/marketing puts it's own spin onto the data when they filter/analyze it. In my opinion there is zero chance that he doesn't occasionally stick his head in here directly to get a flavor for what is being said. He's a human being after all and when you've put so much effort into creating something, you want to know what people think.

 

[Zythryn]

Once again, Elon specifically said this would be via an OTA update to the entire fleet.
A plan for rapidly expanding the number of superchargers doesn't fit that description.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see that.
If you are expecting it, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[skilly]

I do not think most people are afraid of charging times. They are afraid of running out of juice. But yes a SC at each McDonalds. Stop for a bite to eat and head on out. IMHO that would be HUGE !!

I disagree...once I start factoring in additional HOURS to my road trip, it becomes an issue. For example, I live in NorCal and I am going this weekend to SoCal. It would add a good 90min of additional waiting around to make that trip in my Model S vs my ICE. I love it for my daily vehicle around the bay and have no problem with range for an entire day of driving locally. When I think about an already 5.5hr drive becoming 7 to 8 hrs, its an issue....I don't think I'm alone in this thought, except for maybe on this site...I might see 20 MS cars in a Bay Area commute; however, driving to Orange County down the i5, if I see one its a rare moment.

 

[Edgewood Dome]

He's not some god whose sentences can be parsed to determine exact meaning.

Sigh, now it's back to worshiping the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

 

[sandpiper]

I disagree...once I start factoring in additional HOURS to my road trip, it becomes an issue. For example, I live in NorCal and I am going this weekend to SoCal. It would add a good 90min of additional waiting around to make that trip in my Model S vs my ICE. I love it for my daily vehicle around the bay and have no problem with range for an entire day of driving locally. When I think about an already 5.5hr drive becoming 7 to 8 hrs, its an issue....I don't think I'm alone in this thought, except for maybe on this site...I might see 20 MS cars in a Bay Area commute; however, driving to Orange County down the i5, if I see one its a rare moment.

I'm with you skilly. It does make a very real difference. Removing taper would be a huge improvement.

 

[Kevin Harney]

I disagree...once I start factoring in additional HOURS to my road trip, it becomes an issue. For example, I live in NorCal and I am going this weekend to SoCal. It would add a good 90min of additional waiting around to make that trip in my Model S vs my ICE. I love it for my daily vehicle around the bay and have no problem with range for an entire day of driving locally. When I think about an already 5.5hr drive becoming 7 to 8 hrs, its an issue....I don't think I'm alone in this thought, except for maybe on this site...I might see 20 MS cars in a Bay Area commute; however, driving to Orange County down the i5, if I see one its a rare moment.

I agree with your sentiment. I agree that it is inconvenient. Scared of it ? No. I think # of locations will relieve MOST of the anxiety. Charging times will follow that. People are MORE scared that they wont get there. That has a bigger consequence.

 

[sandpiper]

Sigh, now it's back to worshiping the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

Point me to the beer volcano!

 

[HillCountryFun]

Some guy posted that his car apparently had an early software update. (post#404).

Before the update, the car used around 310-320 Wh/mile. After the update, it used around 270 Wh/mile.

Assuming the car has 80 kWh available for use:

80kWh*1000=80000 Wh Total energy reserve.

Divide total energy reserve by energy consumed per mile: (before and after update) Oh, and lets assume the car used 320 Wh/mile before update.

80000/320=250 miles. EPA-spec is 265 miles. (i think?)

Now lets apply the "data" we have from post#404:

Assume 270Wh/mile, and usable reserve of 80kWh:

80000/270=296.29miles.

That´s an improvement of:

296.29/250=1.185=18.5 %, quite a lot, if it´s true that is. Now I have no idea what the available energy is to the actual engine, but let´s assume it is 85 kWh:

85000/270=314.8 miles. (But this is probably unrealistic)

I believe that the above thread is a part of what's in store for Thursday's press conference. Let's call the above a FUNDAMENTAL DRIVE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT. I believe that this feature combined with 2 other software components may be the secret sauce:

- Eco Mode - That adds another 15% to 20% improvement in range by reducing consumption via performances limits
- Navigation Update - Multi-point navigation with auto routing through SuperChargers and PlugShare chargers

So, we'd see a significant improvement in overall range as well as a navigation tool to always get us to a charger. I believe a combination of all of these enhancements would be worthy of a press conference.

T-minus 70 hours and counting...

 

[rogbmw]

You know....I just think I will sit back and wait until Thursday to find out.....I guess we will really know what it means then.....:biggrin:

 

[1208]

Agreed about charge times! But from a different angle.

IMHO one of the biggest things preventing ICE drivers buying EVs is the waiting time to charge, when it takes them a few minutes at a petrol station.

If somehow the update brought charge times down to 10mins that would dramatically increase demand.

Hang on... http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/42492-Elon-s-demand-secret-weapon-what-is-it maybe its the secret weapon he mentioned. :wink:

Charge times at supercharger = refuel times at ICE petrol/gas stations :smile: