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Elon: FSD Beta tweets
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
Don’t understand. I thought that FSD Beta still needed frequent interventions. Much more than for instance Waymo
What version of fsd beta is Musk talking about that only rarely requires interventions? If he’s referring to the current latest version he must be smoking more than just some weed.
Looks like Tesla is maintaining their 2-week cycle at least internally. 10.10 originally released Friday February 4th, and the next 10.11 would have been February 18th except deprioritized for 10.10.2 to address recalls and cellular connectivity. So now 2 weeks later for 10.12 targeted March 4th but pushed a few days for a fix and/or extra testing to release Tuesday.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
To me it sounds like he is saying - beta not good enough to merge with highway stack - but close. So, they will wait till it’s good enough before 11.
Everything else is fluff.
Highway is flawless for me. Drives 100+ miles a day, changing lanes, switching highways, in and out of toll lanes and carpool lanes.l without any input from me.
I don’t feel it needs any work. The only stuff that needs work is sensitivity to semis, not so much how it handles the roads. I’m happy they are focusing on city streets before merging them.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Yes but that is with the NOA stack. Tesla wants to do highway driving with the FSD Beta stack so that all driving is done with the same stack. So Tesla needs to move the FSD Beta stack to highway driving. But this requires testing and tweaking the FSD Beta stack to make sure it can handle highway driving as well or better than the NOA stack.
M109Rider
Active Member
Looks like the statement “interventions are so rare on city streets” is referring to a version we don’t have yet. He’s not referring to the version out now.
Also looks like he a few versions ahead.
That’s promising though. !!
We get the beta in Canada this Friday also. Very nice.
Also looks like he a few versions ahead.
That’s promising though. !!
We get the beta in Canada this Friday also. Very nice.
Close but not flawless for me.
Glad it's working great for you but I still find NoA moves into faster lane when it shouldn't. Cars shouldn't have to break to let me in which means I have to cancel the lane change or require lane change confirmation. This happens on every highway drive with moderate traffic.
2nd major problem is rain. If there is a light to moderate rain for 10-15 minutes most of time NoA becomes limited. And worse at night. This may not happen often in California but in other parts of the country this is more common and a potential foundational problem for FSD. I wonder how often Elon has driven in rain?
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
This is classic Elon. He just claims that Tesla is "close". We don't know what "close" means, we don't know what "so rare" means. His disclaimer that "No point in doing so until passing that threshold" gives him a way out if progress slows. Elon will just tweet that "FSD is harder than we thought" and promise "2 weeks" and "next update will blow your mind".
Yes that is what he is saying. But from our experiences, it seems unlikely that city interventions are close to being rare enough. In fact, even the Tesla faithful on Twitter are telling Elon that they are still seeing a lot of interventions in their city driving.
To be fair, I don't think Elon is claiming city interventions are close to being able to remove supervision. He is just claiming that they are close to where the team can shift focus to the highway stack. He is just talking about when FSD Beta is "good enough" that the team can start working on something else. For all we know, maybe Tesla's internal metric for shifting to highway stack is when city interventions are 1 in 100 miles. In which case, Elon might be telling the truth that city interventions are "close". Since Elon won't release disengagement data, we really have no idea.
It does raise some questions though. When Tesla does shift focus to the highway stack, will that mean that FSD Beta in the city is done? Will Tesla not do any more work on FSD Beta at that point? I hope Tesla will continue working on city driving after they shift to the highway stack. But it sounds to me like Elon thinks FSD beta is close to being "good enough".
There's no way they are anywhere near only 1 intervention per 100 miles on city streets. I have a disengagement every 1.25 miles or so on 10.10.2, plus a go-pedal tap intervention every few miles.
That said, roughly 80% of my disengagements are things that don't happen on the highway:
- mailbox-related swerving
- too far left on un-marked roads
- can't turn right without straying out of the lane on sharp or somewhat sharp right turns
- signaling right approaching roundabouts, even if not planning to take the first exit
- trying to pass queued cars at stop sign / traffic light by driving in oncoming travel lane
The only categories of my most common disengagement reasons that could happen on the highway are:
- following a lead car too closely, especially in cold or poor weather
- poor lane change choices
So, if they would increase the follow distance or allow the follow distance setting to work on FSD, and respect the setting to require lane change confirmation on the highway, I would feel pretty good about how FSD should perform on the highway. An added bonus would be if they can finally figure out how to properly visualize the position of a semi truck beside me.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Yes, my experience is similar. But that is just one small sample. There might be areas where the disengagement is better. For example, there are areas in CA that are overfitted where the disengagement rate is probably much better. My guess is Elon is looking at interventions on his daily drives. He might be seeing a disengagement rate of 1 per 60 miles on his daily commutes. He might consider that close to 1 per 100 miles. Remember, in earning calls, Elon has cited his personal drives as evidence of how good FSD Beta is. Many of Elon tweets show a shocking naivety about the real state of FSD Beta. Elon seems to think in his optimism that FSD beta is closer to L4 than it really is.
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
Yes, that was exactly my question, too. I hope he’s not referring to 10.2. If he is I have news for him!
How are you doing that? The NoA stack still requires confirmation of lane changes and I’ve never had it successfully use a carpool lane.
Yup -nailed it. It’s also classic entrepreneur/CEO speak. Make a statement that at first blush sounds awesome and promising but on closer inspection leaves out enough critical information so there’s enough ambiguity that it’s really close to meaningless.
I’m on 10.2 like @GranularHail and in addition to the issues he pointed out I’ll add intersections. The biggest critical difference between highway driving and city driving is intersections. Highways either have no intersections or have stoplights which are the most controlled and easiest to navigate. Cities have 4 way stops, completely uncontrolled intersections, 2 way stops, 5 way intersections, roundabouts, etc. as well as more traffic traveling in different directions.
I’ve yet to have FSD navigate an intersection without a stoplight well. Yesterday I was at a 4 way stop with no other cars around and clear sightlines. The car did the typical stop, then proceed like a scared turtle with little jerky starts until it finally felt safe to proceed. The problem is it does that until it’s virtually all the way through the intersection. Once the car has entered the intersection you just need to proceed (unless something suddenly enters your path.) Stuttering in the middle of the intersection is actually more dangerous. It does the same thing when tuning from a side street onto a larger street with traffic driving 45 MPH. in stead of taking the opportunity to turn into an opening, it starts then stutters and hesitates until a car is practically upon it.
I’ve seen people comment that all they had to do was ‘goose the car a bit’ by pressing on the accelerator, but think about what you’re doing there - you’ve looked, verified that there are no cars, bikes, pedestrians, verified you have the right of way and verified that the opening is large enough to proceed meaning FSD is either unable to confirm all this or unable to appropriately respond.
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
Agreed - I would guess the issues he faces in his commute get much more attention than issues everyone else is facing, too!
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Not really sure what Elon is trying to say here. Is he saying self-driving cars will make traffic worse?
EDIT: he seems to be saying that we will become more aware of how bad traffic is in a self-driving car because we will notice the traffic more instead of focusing on driving. But in a real self-driving car (driverless), you are just a passenger, so why would it matter? You could just read a book or watch a movie and ignore traffic.
EDIT: he seems to be saying that we will become more aware of how bad traffic is in a self-driving car because we will notice the traffic more instead of focusing on driving. But in a real self-driving car (driverless), you are just a passenger, so why would it matter? You could just read a book or watch a movie and ignore traffic.
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SilverString
Member
Generally I agree but I still have problems getting into turn lanes early enough. I live about a mile and a half off any center lined marked roads with hills and swerves and one spot where the road curves fully 90 degrees at a tee and only one stop sign for those entering, so even now with 10.10.2 I always disengage in this area coming and going. I have successfully navigated it a few times without disengagement but it is scary and unpredictable.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
“well” is relative. But you seem to be on the other extreme.
For me FSD handles vast majority of intersections with zero problems. Unprotected turns are iffy.
One place where FSD lags is in driving etiquette. Being slow to start at empty intersections, slow at roundabouts or going in the middle of unmarked roads are all situations where we feel the driving etiquette is being broken. They are not usually comfort or safety issues. These are the situations where youtubers don’t disengage and thus claim zero disengagement drives.
Like a bus. So people are already doing it and while they're not "defeating" traffic, they are defeating it in the way he's describing. And on a bus, you're reducing cars on the roadway and increasing passenger throughput.
I initially read his tweet as meaning that a highway full of autonomous vehicles would no longer have to slow down, as every car could move at the most efficient speed with the most efficient spacing. But obviously that makes little sense.
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