Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[dramsey]

Fairly simple answer, it Ain’t for sale. Your point?

Well, Musk has said on several occasions that he's open to licensing it to other manufacturers:

Tesla Will Support FSD Licensing For Other Manufacturers - CleanTechnica

Tesla will support Full Self Driving licensing by other manufacturers, Elon Musk said on Twitter. This is something that I suspected would

cleantechnica.com

 

[JHCCAZ]

1. OEMs are not outsouring motors from a specific company, they are all mostly creating their own motors and architecture.

I'm not sure that you're supporting the point you tried to make above.
On the one hand, you challenge Tesla enthusiasts (your apparent opponents) by strongly implying that "OEMs" would actively flock to purchase or license FSD from Tesla if they thought it worked.
On the other hand, you simply dismiss that they don't flock to license Tesla's inarguably industry-leading drivetrain architecture, because "they are all mostly creating their own".

So then which is it? In one arena Tesla's competitors are the rbiters of goodness in ADAS, evidenced by whether or not they beg Tesla for their IP - in the other, it means nothing if they don't.

I would also point out that you've been quite ready to accept optimistic projections of advanced ADAS availability from Geely/Mobileye (Zeekr) and iiRC Hyundai et. al. Why then do you think major worldwide oems aren't flocking en masse to any of those? ( hint, just maybe it's more complicated than your projection of Tesla bad, rest of Industry good)

2. Tesla does NOT make its own batteries, they are outsourced from LG Chem, CATL and Panasonic. The only car company that make their own battery is BYD.

On the contrary, Tesla actually does develop and make its own batteries, as well as buy them and manufacture them in close partnership with other major suppliers. They are involved in various models of verticality as well as procurement across the spectrum. This makes eminent sense because of their enormous and rapidly growing requirements in an area that has not at all settled out regarding technology and nanufacturing scale. You should be very careful in dismissing Tesla when it comes to battery technology, manufacturing, economics and growth.

I'm not trying to dismiss your opinions out of hand, it's obvious that you spend a fair amount of time and talent scouring the depth of the internet for information to support your theses. I'm not sure what motivates that. But I honestly think that if you are so concerned about being winning and being Right, you should spend more time understanding your opponent. If you only conclusion is ridicule, I submit you are not fully understanding.

 

[uscbucsfan]

He's trolling you. No one thinks that's a valid argument.

 

[clydeiii]

Bladerskb writes as though he is some ML/AI expert but never offers any actual evidence of this. What we do know for certain is that he hates Tesla autonomous tech and is likely to never be satisfied with it, regardless of how much it will improve.

 

[JHCCAZ]

He's trolling you. No one thinks that's a valid argument.

If you're responding to me, are you then saying that blader is simply a troll? I didn't say that.

I guess I'm not the expert on trolls, but in my experience they just throw out thinly supported negativity, very rarely with more than a surface effort and use of enough jargon to stay on the edge of the subject.

But he's been on here for a long time, and though all of his opinions are very one-sided, there's more depth behind it than your average troll. More, for example, then I see from that guy Gordon Johnson who is on the financial news shows all the time, throwing out of stream of tiny negative facts that just make him look pretty ridiculous. Also way more than 2101, who is just blasting an air horn in your face and laughing. More than Dan O'Dowd, who may have been impressive once but lost his marbles when Linux came along. You should probably bet on whatever these guys hate.

I see blader as someone who seeks respect but is going about it the wrong way. Has a good mind but he's trapped in bad habits, so once in a while I do engage. Those others? Not worth the time, just wannabe clowns who generate only the annoyance but none of the entertainment that you get at the circus. There are plenty of other truly entertaining naysayers on TMC.

 

[Bladerskb]

I'm not sure that you're supporting the point you tried to make above.
On the one hand, you challenge Tesla enthusiasts (your apparent opponents) by strongly implying that "OEMs" would actively flock to purchase or license FSD from Tesla if they thought it worked.
On the other hand, you simply dismiss that they don't flock to license Tesla's inarguably industry-leading drivetrain architecture, because "they are all mostly creating their own".

So then which is it? In one arena Tesla's competitors are the rbiters of goodness in ADAS, evidenced by whether or not they beg Tesla for their IP - in the other, it means nothing if they don't.

Basically what I said boils down to this.
When someone is asking for money to buy something, they go to a person they know has money.
When someone isn't asking for money to buy something, they use their own money.

OEMs are not asking for drivetrain, they are developing their own.
OEMs on the otherhand are asking for ADAS/AV tech.

Does that make sense? I should also add that Lucid (Sapphire) is THE industry-leading drivetrain architecture and they have been trying to license it to anyone and no one is calling. Why? Because everyone is doing it themselves.

I would also point out that you've been quite ready to accept optimistic projections of advanced ADAS availability from Geely/Mobileye (Zeekr) and iiRC Hyundai et. al. Why then do you think major worldwide oems aren't flocking en masse to any of those? ( hint, just maybe it's more complicated than your projection of Tesla bad, rest of Industry good)

I have called out alot of AV/ADAS companies for missed deadline, poor performance, etc. Check my post here for BMW.
Also I recently started calling out Mobileye for their current failure/delays to launch full highway & city supervision in china on the Zeekr on Reddit.
I do alot of calling out. Maybe not on this forum, but on reddit.

However, OEMs are still going to Mobileye. Polestar another brand of Geely is using supervision, Volvo might also be next.
VW's Audi/Porsche will also be using Mobileye supervision for 2026 cars which will be announced either end of 2023 or 2024.
Vinfast is also going Mobileye supervision.

Mercedes went to Nvidia.
BMW went to Bosch.
GM is doing inhouse (Ultra Cruise) with help from Cruise ofcourse.
Ford is apparently going in-house for consumer cars, but still unclear what they are aiming for.

There are still a number of OEMs that haven't made a decision yet/finalized their contractual agreements.

In China, OEMs that are looking for help are going to Huawei.

Why is anyone not calling up Tesla? Why isn't Elon tweeting about licensing?

On the contrary, Tesla actually does develop and make its own batteries, as well as buy them and manufacture them in close partnership with other major suppliers. They are involved in various models of verticality as well as procurement across the spectrum. This makes eminent sense because of their enormous and rapidly growing requirements in an area that has not at all settled out regarding technology and nanufacturing scale. You should be very careful in dismissing Tesla when it comes to battery technology, manufacturing, economics and growth.

I disagree but I'm not gonna dwell on this in particular.

My main point is, ARKINVEST for example just released updated financial presentation saying Tesla will be making hundreds of billions of dollars from FSD overnight. Why wouldn't other companies want to get in on this and also make billions from providing Tesla's FSD?

 

[DJT1]

Bladerskb writes as though he is some ML/AI expert but never offers any actual evidence of this. What we do know for certain is that he hates Tesla autonomous tech and is likely to never be satisfied with it, regardless of how much it will improve.

Yes, and let's see he is based in Michigan. Now, what car companies are based in Michigan - ahhh yes Ford, GM and Chrysler.

Could that explain his Tesla hostility?

 

[EVNow]

2. Tesla does NOT make its own batteries, they are outsourced from LG Chem, CATL and Panasonic. The only car company that make their own battery is BYD.

As a famous person once said, you can have your own opinion, but not your own facts

 

[EVNow]

Bladerskb writes as though he is some ML/AI expert but never offers any actual evidence of this. What we do know for certain is that he hates Tesla autonomous tech and is likely to never be satisfied with it, regardless of how much it will improve.

He has said in the past that he is a programmer with some 5 years of experience and was learning ML. I've asked him to clarify his conflicts of interests w.r.t. Tesla and he always refuses. He has also at times given info on GM ADAS that would be difficult for outsiders to easily get. This makes me think he either works for GM or a contractor for GM in their AV efforts. So yes, works for a direct competitor of Tesla and tons of conflict of interest that he refuses to disclose.

Extremely unethical.

 

[DanCar]

Bill Gates says driverless cars over the next decade.

The rules of the road are about to change

Bill Gates writes about his belief that we’ll reach a tipping point with autonomous vehicles and self-driving cars within the next decade.

www.gatesnotes.com

Boring and off topic, but I'm posting anyways.

 

[DanCar]

5 times less likely to be in accident using FSD beta compared to industry average if we believe below tweet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650594704067633154

Even if it is twice as less likely this means every car company should be licensing the tech, otherwise they are killing people.
Yeah, Dan O'dawd or something like wants to see more dead people, by taking away Tesla FSD.

 

[kabin]

5 times less likely to be in accident using FSD beta compared to industry average if we believe below tweet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650594704067633154

Even if it is twice as less likely this means every car company should be licensing the tech, otherwise they are killing people.
Yeah, Dan O'dawd or something like wants to see more dead people, by taking away Tesla FSD.

Yep. It would almost be believable if I could, at a minimum, take short drives without: breaking the law, almost hitting something, upsetting those sharing the road, ... And honestly, FSD isn't driving the vehicle and therefore can't be attributed to any perceived improvement.

 

[JB47394]

Even if it is twice as less likely this means every car company should be licensing the tech, otherwise they are killing people.

There's a slight problem with selection bias there. We'd need to know the accident rate of Tesla drivers before they had a Tesla - or the accident rate of Tesla owners when not driving their Tesla. People who choose to buy Teslas may be many times safer than the average driver.

 

[willow_hiller]

Yep. It would almost be believable if I could, at a minimum, take short drives without: breaking the law, almost hitting something, upsetting those sharing the road, ... And honestly, FSD isn't driving the vehicle and therefore can't be attributed to any perceived improvement.

At the very least, I think this data is strong evidence to disprove the hypothesis that FSD Beta is a danger to others on the road. Whether Tesla drivers are inherently safer than average or not, the human + FSD Beta combo is objectively safe.

 

[KArnold]

I'm a bit suspicious as well. I like FSDb, but I'm also a nerd.

I pity the man who someday might tell my wife "This is how you drive this car...". And she insists on a manual transmission too - I love her so!! She has a good ICE appreciation.

Point being, it takes a special personality type to use FSDb safely today. A good size group would not dare consider it as is. That has to skew the stats - perhaps AP and FSD drivers were better than average drivers to begin with?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

the human + FSD Beta combo is objectively safe.

As a reminder, having your headlights off also is correlated with lower accident rates (pre-DRL).

“Nationwide almost half (49%) of passenger vehicle occupant fatalities occur during nighttime. This, coupled with the fact that approximately 25 percent of travel occurs during hours of darkness, the fatality rate per vehicle mile of travel is about three times higher at night than during the day.”

This was from a while ago, when DRL were less common, so I think it is possible having headlights on dramatically increased the risk.

Should we force people to turn off their headlights, to improve safety, and bring these figures in line?

Every day that goes by with people using headlights means more death. It should be illegal!!!

Think about the parallels here. This is analogous to the argument you are making.

I don’t think we have any information about FSD comparative safety. All we can say is that there is a lower accident rate in the situations where it is on, than there is compared to the general case of other vehicles, but not in the same scenarios, at all. So there is no way to compare.

Hopefully some day Tesla will publish some data.

 

[Bladerskb]

Hopefully some day Tesla will publish some data.

This will never happen. Tesla preys on the ignorance of the masses. Why would they do such a thing when their fans praise them for releasing two misleading sentences instead?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That has to skew the stats - perhaps AP and FSD drivers were better than average drivers to begin with?

Can’t do that comparison since the data don’t cover that.

The no active safety vs. total US fleet probably roughly compares just the vehicle differences and driver differences (obviously still very imperfect!).

I guess I am kind of surprised that with LDA/AEB/FCW/BSD turned off it is still that much better than the entire rest of US vehicles but I guess it could be reasonable.

Not sure there is anything to conclude when comparing that state to anything else though.

I do wonder what the number is with FCW/AEB/BSD/LDA (with and without TACC on) is though - and why they don’t mention it!

 

[EVNow]

This will never happen. Tesla preys on the ignorance of the masses. Why would they do such a thing when their fans praise them for releasing two misleading sentences instead?

When will you be honest and start stating your conflict of interest when writing about Tesla ?

 

[JupiterMan]

There's a slight problem with selection bias there. We'd need to know the accident rate of Tesla drivers before they had a Tesla - or the accident rate of Tesla owners when not driving their Tesla. People who choose to buy Teslas may be many times safer than the average driver.

Perhaps true in early days, but this will be trending towards average with every Tesla sold. Seeing as there are now millions on the road I would suggest the Tesla driver average is likely pretty close to the overall average by now.