Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[Knightshade]

FSD Beta is legally limited to L2 for regulations and legal reasons. However once/if Tesla is confident that it can qualify for L3 then they would apply.

No, they wouldn't.

They literally told a government agency they would not

Do you think they lied in official government filings or something?


L3 and higher will be a future developed system, it is not FSDb per Teslas own words.

I can't believe you and others think that the FSD program has reach dead end.

It isn't a "dead end" it's the literal target of the program.

They fully intended FUTURE programs to be more advanced, but they are a different development effort.

Again, this is all spelled out, including why city streets (Teslas internal name for FSDb) is not intended to ever be more than L2 and why it can't be


I'd suggest you go read Teslas own words on this before discussing it further as you seem deeply unaware of what they've stated.


Or here, I'll just save everyone some time:

final release of City Streets will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature.

Note the words "final" and "Level 2"

Please note that Tesla’s development of true autonomous features (SAE Levels 3+) will follow our iterative process (development, validation, early release, etc.) and any such features will not be released to the general public until we have fully validated them and received any required regulatory permits or approvals."

L3+ will be ANOTHER development effort- not the city streets code everyone is calling FSDb in public.

You can dig deeper in the docs to find where they explain the technical reasons why if you wish (tl;dr is that the OEDR in city streets is incapable of higher than L2)

 

[electrifyme]

Elon claims are like the fake it till you make it saying.

 

[DarkForest]

FSD Beta is legally limited to L2 for regulations and legal reasons. However once/if Tesla is confident that it can qualify for L3 then they would apply. I can't believe you and others think that the FSD program has reach dead end. I can understand being doubtful of L4/L5 ever being reached. But what about L3? They are closing in on that and realistically I think it can be reached in a year or 2 (I also think L3 will be the best we get). So you belief is Tesla is giving up and stopping development on L3-L5 and will just say that L2 is it? If so then I they need to change the name to Autosteer on City Streets and can even remove Beta since they are through.

What do you mean by “qualify”?

AFAIK, they could call FSD “L3” today if they wanted to. All they’d have to do is take full financial responsibility for any incidents that occur because of FSD. Tesla isn’t going to do that with the current state of the Beta, and that’s why it’s L2.

Sure, there’s some additional paperwork to do in certain jurisdictions (eg California), but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t do it in several other jurisdictions.

Point being, the technology could some day become good enough to practically be L5, but it’ll always be L2 if Tesla doesn’t put its money where its mouth is (which means it would always require driver supervision).

 

[Daniel in SD]

Maybe Elon will bring in some Twitter engineers to get Chuck’s unprotected left to the first nine?

Elon Musk has pulled more than 50 Tesla employees into his Twitter takeover

Tesla employees who Musk enlisted to help with his Twitter takeover include Autopilot engineers, security information workers and other lieutenants.

www.cnbc.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Maybe Elon will bring in some Twitter engineers to get Chuck’s unprotected left to the first nine?

Elon Musk has pulled more than 50 Tesla employees into his Twitter takeover

Tesla employees who Musk enlisted to help with his Twitter takeover include Autopilot engineers, security information workers and other lieutenants.

www.cnbc.com

Yes, I was thinking of posting a variation of this in the Twitter thread (they were talking about getting rid of Twitter engineers, and it seems likely that Tesla will hire the ones let go!).

It seems like the hybrid team approach could be a real winner; just a week of hardcore coding by Twitter engineers and we will have 10.69.3.

Seemed like an mildly interesting related read:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1587168694408470528

They say getting the first 9 is the hardest.

 

[JulienW]

What do you mean by “qualify”?

AFAIK, they could call FSD “L3” today if they wanted to. All they’d have to do is take full financial responsibility for any incidents that occur because of FSD. Tesla isn’t going to do that with the current state of the Beta, and that’s why it’s L2.

Sure, there’s some additional paperwork to do in certain jurisdictions (eg California), but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t do it in several other jurisdictions.

Point being, the technology could some day become good enough to practically be L5, but it’ll always be L2 if Tesla doesn’t put its money where its mouth is (which means it would always require driver supervision).

Actually the difference between L2 and L3 is HUGE, legally and regulatory. L3 would have to be licensed or certified in each state that has a requirement and NHTSA would be all over it too and congress would LOVE to join in. L2 is just driver assistance features BUT L3 is 100% Full Self Driving. No way could the current system pass the regulatory hurdles for L3 and the liability would be prohibited.

It needs to be near bullet proof, reliable and offer some reasonable notice for when a take over is needed. Not just grab the wheel or hit the brakes when it is about to pull out in front for a car.

 

[jeremymc7]

Pushing to my car now.

FSD Beta 10.69.2.4
(2022.20.19)

 

[thewishmaster]

Maybe Elon will bring in some Twitter engineers to get Chuck’s unprotected left to the first nine?

Elon Musk has pulled more than 50 Tesla employees into his Twitter takeover

Tesla employees who Musk enlisted to help with his Twitter takeover include Autopilot engineers, security information workers and other lieutenants.

www.cnbc.com

There goes 10.69.3 if the autopilot heads are busy reading social media platform code lol

 

[kabin]

There goes 10.69.3 if the autopilot heads are busy reading social media platform code lol

Save the twitter, save the world!

 

[thewishmaster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1587317054478000128

Ok, maybe some hope after all

 

[MarcG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1587317054478000128

Ok, maybe some hope after all

Yippee, 2022.36 code base! Alternate routes, Caraoke, and energy app will finally be enabled on my Plaid

 

[2101Guy]

Elon is not saying Level 4, this is the exact same playbook we've seen for a long time where he's asked specifically about Level 4/5 and then he dances around with verbiage before arriving at "safer than human" something or other, march of 9s, etc

"The CEO of the electric car company has stated that the FSD program could potentially achieve Level 4 autonomy by the end of 2022"

 

[AndrewZ]

"The CEO of the electric car company has stated that the FSD program could potentially achieve Level 4 autonomy by the end of 2022"

I know how Elon's comments are being perceived by most people, but my opinion is that such statements are carefully worded and delivered to be interpreted a certain way while covering Tesla's butt by never actually saying Level 4. I think you need to interpret them through the lens of Tesla's lawyers, they'll go into court for the various lawsuits etc and say "after xx date, we said nothing about Level 4 and people shouldn't have expected full autonomy"

 

[Daniel in SD]

I know how Elon's comments are being perceived by most people, but my opinion is that such statements are carefully worded and delivered to be interpreted a certain way while covering Tesla's butt by never actually saying Level 4. I think you need to interpret them through the lens of Tesla's lawyers, they'll go into court for the various lawsuits etc and say "after xx date, we said nothing about Level 4 and people shouldn't have expected full autonomy"

"But I think we'll be pretty close to having enough 9s that you're going to have no one in the car by the end of this year. And certainly, without a question, whatsoever in my mind next year.
I think we'll also have an update next year to be able to show to regulators that the car is safer much so than the average human."

He's predicting driverless operation next year. Who care's if it's L4 if it's driverless? Anyway he's not promising it, just saying there's no doubt in his mind that it will happen.

 

[AndrewZ]

"But I think we'll be pretty close to having enough 9s that you're going to have no one in the car by the end of this year. And certainly, without a question, whatsoever in my mind next year.
I think we'll also have an update next year to be able to show to regulators that the car is safer much so than the average human."

He's predicting driverless operation next year. Who care's if it's L4 if it's driverless? Anyway he's not promising it, just saying there's no doubt in his mind that it will happen.

That transcript is not quite accurate, listen closely starting at 45:30 (exact wording at like 46:07)

He doesn't say you're going to have no one in the car by the end of this year, he says you can have -- this is like the 2016 video saying the person in the driver's seat is only there for legal reasons. None of this actually means driverless, he's describing a Level 2 ADAS that maybe could do most drives without a person touching the controls but will still require a butt in the seat with eyes pointed ahead and ready to take over in circumstances the car can't handle. But I also don't think it'll be able to give you advanced take-over warning you'd expect in a Level 3 system, so drivers will need to be constantly vigilant per Level 2.

This matters as it relates to Robotaxis and the overall value proposition, because I think there's approximately a 0% chance that ownership of the dynamic driving task will be transferred away from a person in the driver's seat by the end of next year. It would be great to be proven wrong though.

 

[DarkForest]

He doesn't say you're going to have no one in the car by the end of this year, he says you can have -- this is like the 2016 video saying the person in the driver's seat is only there for legal reasons. None of this actually means driverless, he's describing a Level 2 ADAS that maybe could do most drives without a person touching the controls but will still require a butt in the seat with eyes pointed ahead and ready to take over in circumstances the car can't handle. But I also don't think it'll be able to give you advanced take-over warning you'd expect in a Level 3 system, so drivers will need to be constantly vigilant per Level 2.

This is exactly what I expect to happen. I wouldn’t be surprised if next year Elon says something like, “It’s essentially L4, but the regulators will only let us call it L2.”

And he’ll conveniently leave out that the regulators won’t let them call it L4 because Tesla won’t accept financial responsibility for any accidents. Which means it would technically, essentially, basically, and factually be L2, period.

 

[Daniel in SD]

he says you can have

Exactly, you, meaning the owner of the car can have no one in car. He’s predicting it will have enough 9’s of reliability to operate without a safer driver and they’ll have the data to prove it.
I also think there’s a 0% chance of that happening but I’m not an AV expert.

 

[EVNow]

And he’ll conveniently leave out that the regulators won’t let them call it L4 because Tesla won’t accept financial responsibility for any accidents. Which means it would technically, essentially, basically, and factually be L2, period.

Or may be because levels are stupid.

 

[AndrewZ]

This is exactly what I expect to happen. I wouldn’t be surprised if next year Elon says something like, “It’s essentially L4, but the regulators will only let us call it L2.”

And he’ll conveniently leave out that the regulators won’t let them call it L4 because Tesla won’t accept financial responsibility for any accidents. Which means it would technically, essentially, basically, and factually be L2, period.

Agreed completely and I think this has honestly been the underlying theme the whole way through, the language has merely evolved over the years.

Exactly, you, meaning the owner of the car can have no one in car. He’s predicting it will have enough 9’s of reliability to operate without a safer driver and they’ll have the data to prove it.
I also think there’s a 0% chance of that happening but I’m not an AV expert.

I don't know what these data are supposed to mean for Robotaxis and fully autonomous vehicles -- is ownership of the DDT being transferred away from a human in the driver's seat? DDT ownership is what the Levels are all about, you could have a system that does 99.999999% of everything and is still Level 2.

When asked directly about the Levels, which are all about DDT ownership, Elon starts talking about interventions and the March of 9s -- I think that says it all. Elon fully knows what the Levels mean.

 

[Daniel in SD]

When asked directly about the Levels, which are all about DDT ownership, Elon starts talking about interventions and the March of 9s -- I think that says it all. Elon fully knows what the Levels mean.

Because he’s not interested in the regulatory aspect of the self-driving. All that matters to him is that the car can drive with no one in it at a safety level much greater than the average human.