Elon Musk: EAP solved, on track for FSD completion in 2019 (No one else is close!)

[heems]

Not to rain on OPs parade but I think he’s simply and perhaps inadequately trying to state the obvious. The mechanism at hand is known. It’s called the hype curve - attached.

He is standing at the peak and yelling about being on the peak and about to dive in disillusionment. We get it. But that’s not relevant. Sure we are entering the trough of disillusionment or maybe even 30% in it. So what? Look the rest of curve. It’s coming +/- some years. No one can predict the future but everyone is going through the same motions. Get used to it.

 

[kvandivo]

It's a typo. Hype should be spelled "hope", and us old dudes with years of experience hearing Elon know that. He is filled with hope for the future of us all. We know it's not going to happen in his hopeful time frame. It never has. But he has hope, and that gives us hope. And it gives us fantastic cars, battery backup and solar, the Big Freakin' Rocket, plans for space travel. Come along and dream with us.

Maybe we should start noting that his tweets have lots of hypos in them.

 

[croman]

Not just that but simply everyday driving will cause this. Imagine driving through muddy water after a heavy rain and the cars next to you sprays your car and all of a sudden both your repeaters and rear-view cams are disabled.
Thanks for being one of the few thinking about this logically.

Done that. Not a drop on cameras. I wouldn't drive through it again but the cops made me and the roads were otherwise worse in other directions.

Also 2 months of winter without a car wash. No drops. Several snow falls, salt spray whatever. Tesla wins against that false attack meme. Only the back up camera can be easily disabled. Radar can be vulnerable depending on conditions too but those sensors are becoming less valuable to Tesla's approach.

 

[Bladerskb]

Done that. Not a drop on cameras. I wouldn't drive through it again but the cops made me and the roads were otherwise worse in other directions.

Also 2 months of winter without a car wash. No drops. Several snow falls, salt spray whatever. Tesla wins against that false attack meme. Only the back up camera can be easily disabled. Radar can be vulnerable depending on conditions too but those sensors are becoming less valuable to Tesla's approach.

huh? your car hasn't even activated the repeater until a week ago...
Not only that but the car uses the forward cameras only for lane keeping.
So how would you know what conditions affects the repeaters or not? smh

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla is not the only one that might be too optimistic about FSD. Waymo, which is considered the leader in FSD, boasted that their cars did not need safety drivers anymore because they had achieved FSD. Waymo even put out a video showing how they had achieved driverless cars. But now, we learn that their cars struggle with T intersections, unprotected left turns, distinguishing groups of people close together, merging in fast traffic, intersections near highways, and stopped cars.

Waymo’s Big Ambitions Slowed by Tech Trouble

 

[RDoc]

In the early 80's my wife was offered a job managing a software group for a major oil company that was working on natural speech recognition. They figured about 18 months to 2 years for single word recognition and another 2 years of so for continuous speech. (BTW, that's not how speech recognition is done)

She didn't take it and it's still a family joke.

The moral: Hype springs eternal.

 

[croman]

huh? your car hasn't even activated the repeater until a week ago...
Not only that but the car uses the forward cameras only for lane keeping.
So how would you know what conditions affects the repeaters or not? smh

I own the car. Coming up on third winter. If there isn't salt spray or mud in 2 years, there cannot be an issue. You have no experience or clue but that never stops you.

 

[Bladerskb]

I own the car. Coming up on third winter. If there isn't salt spray or mud in 2 years, there cannot be an issue. You have no experience or clue but that never stops you.

such sound logic you got going there. you an owner of one car doesn't experience a mud splash in 2 years equivalent of about 30,000 miles of driving. Means there cannot be a problem when you scale up to a fleet of 1 million cars that drives 30 million miles a day.

Immaculate logic you got there, can i borrow it some day?

Or you know, you can go outside get some very muddy water and splash your repeaters, retrieve video from camera and analyze. But no..it actually involves producing evidence which a tesla fan cannot allow.

 

[croman]

such sound logic you got going there. you an owner of one car doesn't experience a mud splash in 2 years equivalent of about 30,000 miles of driving. Means there cannot be a problem when you scale up to a fleet of 1 million cars that drives 30 million miles a day.

Immaculate logic you got there, can i borrow it some day?

Or you know, you can go outside get some very muddy water and splash your repeaters, retrieve video from camera and analyze. But no..it actually involves producing evidence which a tesla fan cannot allow.

How do Tesla cameras self clean?

 

[Bladerskb]

How do Tesla cameras self clean?

uhm what part of that thread did you splash mud and take a pic afterwards? Notice i never mentioned salt spray. But specifically mud splash.

 

[croman]

uhm what part of that thread did you splash mud and take a pic afterwards? Notice i never mentioned salt spray. But specifically mud splash.

Driven through a corn field. Mud is child's play. Dozens of times. Once through 14 inches flash flood. River flooded Banks. Nasty mud smelled like rotten fish. Did professional wash.

You literally have no idea. Really amusing actually.

 

[Bladerskb]

Driven through a corn field. Mud is child's play. Dozens of times. Once through 14 inches flash flood. River flooded Banks. Nasty mud smelled like rotten fish. Did professional wash.

You literally have no idea. Really amusing actually.

Huh? water simply rinses itself..I said mud not flash flood.

 

[Kruegmeister]

Driven through a corn field. Mud is child's play. Dozens of times. Once through 14 inches flash flood. River flooded Banks. Nasty mud smelled like rotten fish. Did professional wash.

You literally have no idea. Really amusing actually.

Flash Flood, Riverbank, Nasty Mud...
Croman said MUD, MUD, MUD

Don't drink and forum...

 

[tyson]

Not only did he say he drove through mud but the premise of "splash mud on the camera" will work to defeat ANY FSD system that relies on vision.... Including humans!

 

[Kruegmeister]

Bladerskb is on Reddit & Arstechnica spreading the same "Knowledge & Wisdom"
There is only 1 reason to devote that much time against Tesla, This is what he is paid to do...
You'll never get him to concede a point so aside from the comical readings it's useless to argue...
Tesla you should just hire this "expert" to get you on the right track...

I mean how many times does he have to reply with another Boom! Before we stop laughing???

 

[tyson]

Yeah, I realize that I really shouldn't feed the trolls...

 

[Bladerskb]

Again ... please, could you tell me which brand / model should I buy now, today, on 2018 for that level of autonomy? Please note that I live on a small town 20 miles from Madrid (Spain/Europe). Half of my daily commute are on secondary roads, where we have just one lane on each direction and the paintings are not very clear (although Autopilot interprets and drives them as good as I do).

I am ready to jump from Tesla to the company that autonomously drive this last 5% I am still driving manually on my daily commute.

Please, no demos, videos, dreams nor future availability, for that we already have the 2016 Tesla FSD demo which at this point we all agree it's just bullshit. Any demo or unavailable technology just goes to the bullshit bag, with the Tesla Demo.

But if you want, we can compare demos to demos. In that case, the 2016 Tesla demo is as impressive as imaginary.

I don't get this. All the automakers and other companies already told you their timeline for their systems.
Ranging from 2019-2021. So saying where can i buy so and so is illogical.

You have a group of guys telling you 5 years and every year they show you a video and statistical data of their progress.
Then you have a guy that told you 2 years, then sold you systems promising that. But 2 years later has nothing to show for it. Then 3 years later released a NOA system that .01% of a FSD system.

Isn't he the one you should be facing your pitchfork and knife at seeing as he swindled and bambozled u? not the people saying 5 years whose delivery date is still not at hand?

Doesn't make any sense.

Elon said repeatedly that he was close to cross country demo in 2017 and said if it didn't happen in the end of the year it will be very close. 25 months later and yet still nothing. Was Tesla actually very close? Well let's say Tesla was very very close. Lets say they were 75% there.

That means their system could go over 2250 miles before disengagement.
THATS ASTONISHING!

Releasing that to the fleet would bring such exponential level of safety that has never been seen before.
Let's say they were only 50% there. That's still 1500 miles before disengagement. AP today can't even go 10 miles before disengagement.

Instead we get a useless NOA. if Tesla actually had a software that could go 1500 miles before disengagement they would release it in a heartbeat. You should be asking yourself why haven't Tesla released software that can do what's happening in those demos.

Isn't that the point of Tesla and taking the incremental agile approach? What others release as a demo progress, Tesla should be releasing as a production software. But we get the garbage that is NOA.

When other companies start missing their timeline by 12+ months then you can start heckling them. Elon is already off by 12 months already.

Timeline: The future of driverless cars, from Audi to Volvo

 

[mongo]

I don't get this. All the automakers and other companies already told you their timeline for their systems.
Ranging from 2019-2021. So saying where can i buy so and so is illogical.

You have a group of guys telling you 5 years and every year they show you a video and statistical data of their progress.
Then you have a guy that told you 2 years, then sold you systems promising that. But 2 years later has nothing to show for it. Then 3 years later released a NOA system that .01% of a FSD system.

Isn't he the one you should be facing your pitchfork and knife at seeing as he swindled and bambozled u? not the people saying 5 years whose delivery date is still not at hand?

Doesn't make any sense.

Elon said repeatedly that he was close to cross country demo in 2017 and said if it didn't happen in the end of the year it will be very close. 25 months later and yet still nothing. Was Tesla actually very close? Well let's say Tesla was very very close. Lets say they were 75% there.

That means their system could go over 2250 miles before disengagement.
THATS ASTONISHING!

Releasing that to the fleet would bring such exponential level of safety that has never been seen before.
Let's say they were only 50% there. That's still 1500 miles before disengagement. AP today can't even go 10 miles before disengagement.

Instead we get a useless NOA. if Tesla actually had a software that could go 1500 miles before disengagement they would release it in a heartbeat. You should be asking yourself why haven't Tesla released software that can do what's happening in those demos.

Isn't that the point of Tesla and taking the incremental agile approach? What others release as a demo progress, Tesla should be releasing as a production software. But we get the garbage that is NOA.

When other companies start missing their timeline by 12+ months then you can start heckling them. Elon is already off by 12 months already.

Timeline: The future of driverless cars, from Audi to Volvo

Remind me, what is the current disengagement rate for v9/ NoA on a limited access freeway? Seems most of a cross country drive could be handled, mileage wise.

 

[Tam]

...NOA system that .01% of a FSD system...

I like Tesla's system better because it allows its users all over the world to participate in the work in progress even though it's only 0.01% capable for now and even with some risks of fatalities and lawsuits and I am quite tired waiting for others to allow me to buy into their systems.

 

[Bladerskb]

I like Tesla's system better because it allows its users all over the world to participate in the work in progress even though it's only 0.01% capable for now and even with some risks of fatalities and lawsuits and I am quite tired waiting for others to allow me to buy into their systems.

Call your senators and complain, they are the ones holding back L3 in the states. According to Amon there will be 2 million L3 cars running on Mobileye Eye4 in 2019.

But my point is, shouldn't Tesla software be more than .01%? If other companies are gunning for 2019,2020 and 2021. Shouldn't Tesla have released software that should replicate what these other companies have in-house? And for those that say Tesla is ahead. Then Tesla should have software that frankly trumps them all right?

Yet we have .01%? Something must be amiss.

Think about it. Time is running out for elon. We are 12 months from 2020. Other automakers timeline is about to catch up to him.
When this happens, what will Elon do? he can't promise anymore. It would be too shameful.

Nissan will launch more than 10 self-driving vehicles by 2020

Here's a description of Nissan's L3 Highway system for Japan that was delayed from 2018 into 2019

Two years later in 2018, Nissan's "multiple-lane control" will be offered. That, as you might imagine, will expand the single lane system into multiple lanes. With that capability, it will be able to autonomously negotiate road hazards as well as change lanes during highway driving.