Can I sell you a statue in NYC ? A big one with a great view of the city.
Did you see the comments? you think they are also mistaken like me?
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Elon Musk vs. Short sellers
- Thread starter jesselivenomore
- Start date
Did you see the comments? you think they are also mistaken like me?
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Got to play a gig at Ken Lay’s house the year that the RNC was held in Houston. Sure, charming fellow and all that. Come to think of it, I sold a ton of tech and maintenance to Arthur Andersen in the day job...
Seeing up-close all the human and economic wreckage in the wake of The Crooked E, I cannot say even Good Job to Jim Chanos because justice was not done. No reparations made. Their accomplice (or foil?) in the CA Blackouts, Reliant Energy, is still a going concern under new nameage NRG. And I saw Ken on a beach in Mexico a couple of years ago, grinning like an opossum.
Cannot say Chanos has an understanding of the renewable energy biz, even a YouTube Crash Course basic comprehension. He let that cat out of the bag when he said, in criticism of the Solar City acquisition, “... [solar] is going to be good for consumers, and for utilities getting into what we call Distributed Solar, large installations where they distribute it. But the business of putting things on peoples’ rooves (sic) is not economic (sic) for the companies doing it. That is the real problem.”
...Because “solar panels on rooves” IS the very definition of Distributed Solar. Am I wrong??
Scratch Jim and you expose a ‘blind pig’ still living off a 2001 truffle.
EDIT: even better bite of that particular video is how he Chansplains the difference between (baaaad) Tesla losses and (ohhhhh kay) Amazon losses... get this. The genius of Amazon’s sales model is freeing the consumer from having to go to a brick-and-mortar dealership, we now need only go online to transact and get the desired product. Say What, Jim?!? That’s how I bought Pearlie May from Elon! The same dude who introduced freedom from brick-n-mortar banking!!
Sorry if watching it induces brick-related damage to your viewing screen.
Seeing up-close all the human and economic wreckage in the wake of The Crooked E, I cannot say even Good Job to Jim Chanos because justice was not done. No reparations made. Their accomplice (or foil?) in the CA Blackouts, Reliant Energy, is still a going concern under new nameage NRG. And I saw Ken on a beach in Mexico a couple of years ago, grinning like an opossum.
Cannot say Chanos has an understanding of the renewable energy biz, even a YouTube Crash Course basic comprehension. He let that cat out of the bag when he said, in criticism of the Solar City acquisition, “... [solar] is going to be good for consumers, and for utilities getting into what we call Distributed Solar, large installations where they distribute it. But the business of putting things on peoples’ rooves (sic) is not economic (sic) for the companies doing it. That is the real problem.”
...Because “solar panels on rooves” IS the very definition of Distributed Solar. Am I wrong??
Scratch Jim and you expose a ‘blind pig’ still living off a 2001 truffle.
EDIT: even better bite of that particular video is how he Chansplains the difference between (baaaad) Tesla losses and (ohhhhh kay) Amazon losses... get this. The genius of Amazon’s sales model is freeing the consumer from having to go to a brick-and-mortar dealership, we now need only go online to transact and get the desired product. Say What, Jim?!? That’s how I bought Pearlie May from Elon! The same dude who introduced freedom from brick-n-mortar banking!!
Sorry if watching it induces brick-related damage to your viewing screen.
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SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Oops, misstated in my edit ... what he Chansplains here is the brilliance of Amazon using the “Dell Model,” our credit card gets charged when we order and they have 60-90-120 days to pay back their suppliers. Yeaaaaah, that’s also the Tesla model.
Would love to see Gali have some fun discussing this.
Would love to see Gali have some fun discussing this.
From what I’ve assessed, Chanos got initially excited over reports from staff on solarcity accounting called “retained value,” the leasing model, and securitization of of lease payments. If you want a current example, look at Sunruns financials as comparison.
He also attached his animus to Elon in general (because he was co founder and largest scty shareholder) and thus Tesla became a target in his drive to uncover the next big short. He did big interviews announcing his holy war and hasn’t looked back.
However he, in all his excitement and public proclaimations, failed really understand the business and neglected to see the reality of how it all worked. And as time has passed, his frustration has boiled up to desperation levels as Tesla has continued to grow in success. His statements about BMW I series being better as well as recent announcemts about Porsche being better being prime examples. When you start pulling out this as part of your “analysis” you indicate a slipping of confidence. I’m sure he didn’t have to say BP oil asthectics are coming for Enron to build his argument for that situation. I smell blood in the water and it’s definitely not Tesla’s. As I’ve said before, desperation seems to leads to foul play and Tripp might be the salient to uncover it. What rings in my head for Jim is the trading places line “turn those machines back on!!” Hes made too much of a public fuss to go back on his Tesla crusade and move on and cut losses. His remaining public credibility is hanging in the balance since he will be called out as being wrong on Tesla for the rest of his career after. If Tesla turns out to be one of the biggest or the biggest company in the world, this new rep could become legendary and washout his Enron resume go-to as his new brand.
I would tv interviewers to ask him these simple questions:
Have you driven the car?
Have you been to the gigafactory?
Have you been to Fremont?
Have you seen a solarcity install personally?
Have you talked to leasees of solarcity?
Have you seen how the payment system works for these leasees, examined a billing cycle?
Have you actually seen anything in person?
I actually think Tesla should pump up Chanos. Make him the face of the opposition. Make Chanos the brand of Tesla counter argument. And when he’s fails miserably, the mantra will be for all those who come after will be “don’t get Chanos-ed” betting against Tesla. Memorialize his name as the tarbaby albatross over any future big short position on Tesla. Something in trade lore to fear being “chanosed” by Tesla if trying to short the stock big.
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I would actually like him to take Galileo up on his challenge to debate him on CNBC. Classic 'old school' vs 'millenial'
Have you driven the car?
Have you been to the gigafactory?
Have you been to Fremont?
Have you seen a solarcity install personally?
Have you talked to leasees of solarcity?
Have you seen how the payment system works for these leasees, examined a billing cycle?
Have you actually seen anything in person?
Right, they (the usual rubes) would never ask those questions, that might make sense!!!
This debate would be best on a major YouTuber social media celebrity FB live, twitter, etc..
No talking points, but straight raw conversation. It would break the internet, it would break ratings.
Can’t clutch pearls of traditional canned media anymore. The consumer wants real talk and if elon goes on one of these channels and calls out naysayers to ask him questions live. What if he asked Chanos to call in and ask him anything? Again, anything elon does to dispel rumors or engage with the broader public in a conversational way will only build confidence and familiarity. Twitter is one way, but going on celebrity channels (the hot sauce one would be priceless) would really get his message out the way he wants and a greater number of people would connect with it then through stiff, time limited, agenda/advertising driven, between commercials segments.
Tesla cut off Dana Hull some time ago. This is sad for her because her job is to cover Tesla. Since she cannot get Tesla's story, she's publishing crap.
I predict she won't last long at Bloomberg.
If you look past the headline, this article is chock full of information.
Elon Musk Is The Donald Trump Of Silicon Valley
Good news and boring news. I found out who Montana Skeptic is - he is indeed a former commercial litigations lawyer, now managing a family office for an eccentric billionaire (nice job of you can get it!)
Now the boring part - no connection whatsoever to Jim Chanos directly nor any big oil connections despite having practiced law in Houston, Texas. Just boring commercial litigation stuff mostly for property developers. I have even listened to him arguing a (boring) case in court and it matches with the voice in the QTR podcast.
His antipathy to Tesla seems to be ideological. He has donated heavily to another lost cause - 2012 Mitt Romney campaign. Follows usual Republican weirdos on Twitter etc.
Overall, a pretty harmless guy with a lot of free time.
I think it's better NOT to share it. Considering the PR damage that Tesla's lynch mob did to Tripp ( "scaring" him into a hotel ), it makes for bad optics. "WE" might know better than to do something so rash with that info, but there are plenty of lurkers who aren't as aware of how bad their actions would make Tesla look.
If I share his name, it is a google search away from getting both his home addresses in NY and Montana (even interior pics of his home!), his employers etc.
However, I will consider sharing the information privately with @Curt Renz or Tesla or anyone who want to send him a cease & desist letter for defamation/online harassment.
Montana Skeptic on Twitter
Montana Skeptic on Twitter
Oh. And MS drives a dieselgate infested Audi. LOL.
Singer3000
Member
Late to the party but just wanted to say thanks for such an extraordinary, eye-opening post.
It helps to explain several things, most notably the pivot to short term free cashflow instead of aggressive growth, the conference call outburst and the slightly odd Twitter concern for small shorts such as the Tesla Charts guy (Elon likely has genuine fears for the small timers with only a little information and/or expertise, getting swept up by the tide of organised money).
There are still legitimate risks to this company but some of the positions argued on these pages in recent months have been fruit loopy. How much of that has been organised and how much is simply the witterings of the greater fool? Who knows.
It helps to explain several things, most notably the pivot to short term free cashflow instead of aggressive growth, the conference call outburst and the slightly odd Twitter concern for small shorts such as the Tesla Charts guy (Elon likely has genuine fears for the small timers with only a little information and/or expertise, getting swept up by the tide of organised money).
There are still legitimate risks to this company but some of the positions argued on these pages in recent months have been fruit loopy. How much of that has been organised and how much is simply the witterings of the greater fool? Who knows.
I actually agree with Soros. I was following foreign exchange at the time. While it's possible for a central bank to *lower* the value of a currency whenever they want (by printing money), it's actually quite hard for a central bank to *raise* the value of a currency. The Bank of England was trying to drag the pound up, when fundamental macroeconomic factors said the pound was going to go down. They were trying to do this by massive purchases of pounds using foreign currency -- essentially, the Bank of England was trying to manipulate the market for pounds. However, they were limited by how much non-pound currency they had to make those purchases.
Soros had the ability to sell more pounds than the Bank of England could buy. This overwhelmed the BoE's market manipulation and the pound reverted to its "natural" macroeconomic price (determined by demand for pounds from industrial companies, etc.)
Anyone with a large enough hedge fund and a good understanding of the macro trends in forex could have done the same thing. What most hedge fund people were missing at the time was the understanding of the macro trends in forex.
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