Advice/Speculation on end of Q3 2023 promos?
I have a 2018 Model 3 LR RWD FSD with 103K miles. I had planned on trading in for a Y or Cybertruck in 2024 (but I didn't reserve Cybertruck till 2020, so likely 2025 before I would be eligible for one). This FSD transfer program has me interested. I see that inventory Y's are already discounted $500 and I am wondering whether this discount will increase at end of Q3 2023. Or will they roll out Free Supercharger Mile promo (which if I read fine print correctly, FSD transfer program purchases will probably not be eligible for). Wondering whether to just go ahead and pull the trigger on a New Y now (Aug 2023) or Wait till mid Sep 2023 to see how desperate Tesla is for Q3 sales? Or just forget FSD and wait for cybertruck. Thoughts?
Assuming you have any interest in FSD at all, I suggest that you take advantage of the transfer program. With over 100k miles on your M3, I think it's a good time to start with a fresh Model Y.
Sure, they might bump up the discount on inventory cars But unless you have a committed offer Tesla or another buyer for your used M3, you also need to remember that as brand new Tesla prices are discounted, this also discounts the value of used Teslas in the market.
There's a possibility that announcements or well-publicized leaks regarding the refreshed Model 3 Highland will induce them to blow out the last of the present production, but whether this happens within September is unknown. Even if so, those deals may not apply to Model Y, as its refresh is farther down the road.
The so-called Osborne effect could go either way for Model Y. Once the M3 Highland details are known (possibly before the end of September), then if they're generally significant and positive it could hurt Model Y demand as people will expect at least the same benefits from the Juniper Y refresh. OtOH if there's some negative Highland aspect that gets well publicized (like maybe a cheapened interior, or some other cost saving feature removal, or some very early quality hiccups that are well publicized), then maybe a bunch of people will stop holding their breath and rush out to get an existing Y - especially within the FSD transfer offer. It hinges a lot on social media sentiment which is kind of fickle as you know.
The Cybertruck is a huge unknown in terms of availability to anyone who's deep down the waiting list. Who knows the prices and configurations that will eventually arrive, not to mention the configurations that will be available during the presumably higher demand of the first couple of years of production. You might as well say you're waiting for the entire EV market to develop, which it will.
so if it's a question of moving as soon as you see an inventory vehicle you like, versus waiting a few more weeks, I would not wait. But if you're really not too motivated, the bigger question is whether they will renew the transfer offer someday after the refreshed models are all available.
Your call obviously, but I would probably take the chance to replace the 100k+ vehicle with a configuration that I really want, and not be rushed by procrastinating another month. If there's a rush of other procrastinators, you won't get any discount at all and you'll have to settle for whatever configuration is available.