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Elon Says Level 5 by the end of the year....

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#41
As Elon so truthfully and correctly points out:

"There are many small problems.

And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.

Real-world testing was needed to uncover what would be a "long tail" of problems, he added."

No kidding. How long has it taken them to decide they've been using the wrong tools up until now?

No L5 this year.... L3 this year and L4 by end 2021 also feels unlikely but worth dreaming about, and I would be dead happy with that.
 
#43
Would you agree that the move from L2 to L3 is where you actually start to need /see some L5 functions?

L2 just fancy driver asssist.

L3 + requires the car to start getting good and dependable.
 
#44
To be fair to the autopilot folks the system has gained more capabilities in the last 90 days than the prior three years. It was effectively lane keeping and cruise control for quite some time and now it’s driving in town, lane changes, lights, stop signs and all.

Doesn’t mean L5 is happening but credit where credit is due. The pace has certainly picked up.
 
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#45
Battpower said:
Real-world testing was needed to uncover what would be a "long tail" of problems, he added."

No kidding. How long has it taken them to decide they've been using the wrong tools up until now?
Click to expand...

The “long tail” Elon discusses I think is not new problems as such, but instead a description of the mathematical accuracy of the NN, and the exponential increase in training it needs to chase those extra decimal percentage points of accuracy.

They talked about this “Long tail” at length at last years FSD investors day. Well worth a watch.
 
#47
JupiterMan said:
The “long tail” Elon discusses I think is not new problems as such, but instead a description of the mathematical accuracy of the NN, and the exponential increase in training it needs to chase those extra decimal percentage points of accuracy.

They talked about this “Long tail” at length at last years FSD investors day. Well worth a watch.
Click to expand...
Funnily enough I was playing with a neural network training simulator yesterday. Know all about those long tails.

In my 'game' the nn never learned to differentiate between certain characters. Gave me some real appreciation of just what is involved.

I've watched the investors day video a couple of times. First time it was quite impressive......
 
#50
gangzoom said:
Elons promise from 4 years ago....

Click to expand...

Even then, it still slammed on brakes for pedestrians even though they were well on the sidewalk.

Looked like speed was set low too, which wasn't so obvious due to sped up playback.

And on the right turn where it stops dead just after making the turn.....

And at intersection where it makes a left nearly into a car coming from right also doing a left cutting right to left in front of the Tesla.

Based on that, my guess would be that after 4 years, tea break is over and they are finally getting back to work to try again!

It is still pretty cool that the car could make that drive (relatively) so long ago, but it doesn't say much for progress since then. You could say they had (some) L5 functionality back then. About the same as they have now.
 
#52
mtndrew1 said:
Doesn’t mean L5 is happening but credit where credit is due. The pace has certainly picked up.
Click to expand...

It probably has in California but over this side of the pond, we pay the same amount but don't see the same results. In fairness, some of the problem might be regulatory but the feeling is we are not even near pushing those limits yet. We have lane changes ('ish) but there's no town driving or lights or stop signs - the car sees them but it doesn't act on them.
 
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#54
ChrisA70 said:
I'm confident genuine FSD is years away. Right now their adaptive cruise control isn't even as good as our £17k Seat Ibiza!
Click to expand...

Just browsing through the current manual and there are loads of exclusions and caveats for pretty well every driver assist function.

If the driver is still required to take responsibility for so many assist features, many of which just don't work usefully, L5 is still a long way off.

Attached hints at the current state of TACC quite well:
 

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#55
I drive down the A38 in the Midlands quite often. A bit South of Burton on Trent on the Southbound carriageway there is what can only be described as something like a humpback bridge. This is on a 70mph dual carriageway so its not what you would expect. It doesn't seem too humpy on the northbound but on the south its quite pronounced to the point where at 70mph+ you feel like you are actually leaving the ground. Its quite un-nerving if you aren't expecting it . Its even more un-nerving if you have autopilot on because it instantly freaks out and switches off. I have so far tried down as low as 60mph but so far have not been able to navigate it successfully.
Maybe ill try 50mph next time....
 
#56
Jason71 said:
I drive down the A38 in the Midlands quite often. A bit South of Burton on Trent on the Southbound carriageway there is what can only be described as something like a humpback bridge. This is on a 70mph dual carriageway so its not what you would expect. It doesn't seem too humpy on the northbound but on the south its quite pronounced to the point where at 70mph+ you feel like you are actually leaving the ground. Its quite un-nerving if you aren't expecting it . Its even more un-nerving if you have autopilot on because it instantly freaks out and switches off. I have so far tried down as low as 60mph but so far have not been able to navigate it successfully.
Maybe ill try 50mph next time....
Click to expand...
I’m seeing the General Lee from Dukes of Hazard and hearing “yeeeee-haaaah!”
 
#57
Every time I drive, I make a mental note of things I think an automatic vehicle just couldn't do at the moment. Roadworks which change a road layout for an afternoon; letting someone through a gap; responding to someone letting you go, etc. If everything is 100% vanilla, I'm sure the technology is there, but it baffles me how we can be close to solving for the humanity in it all, the times when there are no rules and it needs judgment, empathy, etc.
 
#58
Due to the lockdown and accompanying lack to driving instructors, last month I decided to start training my own autonomous level 5 driving intelligence. I have to say it's going better than I expected. After no more than 10 hours I feel she exceeds current FSD technology in most areas including the ability to read road signs and tackle roundabouts. No phantom braking so far either. It's not all plain sailing. Smart summon and parking are at best equivalent to Tesla Technology. Like tesla FSD self driving sometimes disengages at this point due to moisture obscuring the optical sensors. Unlike FSD Chocolate seems to be the most effective remedy.
All in all I am quite pleased though having totted it up the total, cost so far over the last 17 years does significantly exceed the £7000 Tesla are asking and future maintenance costs are likely to be higher as well.
 
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#59
I had a thought about this yesterday...

I can’t see how the Model 3, perhaps all the current cars, could do proper full self driving with their current camera configuration.

On my commute I have two T junctions where I have to pull out from the “leg” part (I’m sure there’s a better vernacular for this). It involves peering forwards to see what’s coming from either side, before pulling out.

As far as I can tell the Model 3 could never do this because the side cameras either point backwards (the two on the wings) or are mounted just in front of the rear seats (the B pillar ones).

So unless I’m missing something this is simply a challenge that the car cannot currently solve. And T junctions are ubiquitous.

Thoughts?
 
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