Elon Says Level 5 by the end of the year....

[Simavon]

Completely out of the question with the current hardware. Try reversing the car with a large water droplet on the rear camera. Can't see anything. Try driving south in winter in early morning low sun "Left door pillar camera blocked or blinded". These are fundamental problems that software can't fix.

 

[Mr H]

I was driving along a very twisty narrow country lane with no road markings and no proper passing places. I wondered what FSD would do on meeting a tractor (or indeed a cyclist) coming the other way... Then driving across a private airfield, I had to divert over the grass to avoid a plane parked on the road / taxiway. How would a car with no driver controls cope?

They’ll have wings by then like Chitty Chitty Bang Bang

 

[AnthonyLR]

"I feel like we are very close."

Anyone can feel but can the car pass the tests is another issue.

Yes, anyone can feel. But this guy felt he could revolutionise the automotive industry with electric cars when most people said he couldn't. And he felt rockets could be reusable if they landed on their tails, which no one had done before. So when he feels something can be done, I feel comfortable believing him.

 

[MrBadger]

Sounds like he was practising his elevator pitch...

 

[AndrewGR]

I’m sure that if L5 ever comes to fruition from any automaker there will be limits on the road types it will work on and a barrier where it will cross over to finding safe harbor and aborting the process.

L5 doesn’t mean a car can drive on any surface or in any condition, it means it must be able to drive you without attention either to your destination or to safe harbor without crashing.

So far as I can see SAE (J3016) Automation Levels defines
Level 5 to mean 'Full Automation' under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver

Wikipedia adds the comment 'steering wheel optional'.

That's a very tall ask. I suppose you can be fussy about what is defined as a roadway, but a car without a steering wheel is going to be very limited if it can't go everywhere a human driver could go. I'd see that as including parking in the required spot in a grass field being temporarily used as a car park for an event - probably under instruction from a human marshal.

 

[mtndrew1]

So far as I can see SAE (J3016) Automation Levels defines
Level 5 to mean 'Full Automation' under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver

Wikipedia adds the comment 'steering wheel optional'.

That's a very tall ask. I suppose you can be fussy about what is defined as a roadway, but a car without a steering wheel is going to be very limited if it can't go everywhere a human driver could go. I'd see that as including parking in the required spot in a grass field being temporarily used as a car park for an event - probably under instruction from a human marshal.

I’m taking “roadway” as not meaning driving across a lawn and an airfield.

In any event I’m sure this will be hashed out over time should such a feature ever come to fruition. Right now I’d settle for rock solid lane centering.

 

[Saghost]

I’m taking “roadway” as not meaning driving across a lawn and an airfield.

In any event I’m sure this will be hashed out over time should such a feature ever come to fruition. Right now I’d settle for rock solid lane centering.

That sort of thing will probably separate high functioning level 4 cars from true level 5 cars at some point in the future.

A level 4 car that can handle all of the normal roads in populated areas and routes around the extreme cases when necessary is probably perfectly adequate for most people.

 

[mtndrew1]

That sort of thing will probably separate high functioning level 4 cars from true level 5 cars at some point in the future.

A level 4 car that can handle all of the normal roads in populated areas and routes around the extreme cases when necessary is probably perfectly adequate for most people.

Agreed. And even though I was sold L5 for my $7,000 I’d be perfectly happy with L3/L4.

 

[Drew57]

....."There are many small problems.

.... ie most of our European cities, towns, side roads & lanes.

 

[Sparkeur]

I was coming back from Bordeaux yesterday on the A10 in full FSD with Nav. Once I got into the rhythm, my confidence soared as we changed lanes with ease, swooping past lesser mortals as they burnt their fossil fuels. Then, we approached the toll booths. Chimes, messages, braking, turning, swearing, embarrassment ensued as previous mortals sailed past me with quizzical looks on their faces.
Level 1- I think.

 

[Tam]

Yes, anyone can feel. But this guy felt he could revolutionise the automotive industry with electric cars when most people said he couldn't. And he felt rockets could be reusable if they landed on their tails, which no one had done before. So when he feels something can be done, I feel comfortable believing him.

This "feel" is not about whether FSD can be done or not in the future, but it's about whether it can be done this year.

I doubt Tesla FSD will ever pass an SAE Level 5 test for years or decades from now.

But sure, I do think that Tesla FSD and driverless Tesla Robotaxi just like in science fiction will be real sometime in the future.

It's the same with going to Mars. It will happen in the future but I doubt that will happen with SpaceX's timeline set for 2022 when we don't even have the desired rocket "Starship" in production today.

Elon Musk has a habit of setting a deadline to move things along but oftentimes, those deadlines are not honored. Not because he's dishonest but it's just the nature of science, physics...

 

[pgkevet]

I'd guess it means one of two things// either that they have the final design for HW4 or that they have got their new AI computer up and running (or nearly up and running) that's supposed to analyse all the feedback situations in parallel. Actually getting it functional and safe is another matter...
..In theory the process should be logarithmic in application and updates...

It's still Tesla Time and vapourware until proven

 

[Jason71]

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha
(breath)
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha

 

[totoro722]

My interpretation of his statement is: “Later this year we will have our major software rewrite finished, and that will give us all of the tools we need to get to level 5”. Does not mean he thinks he is close to releasing Level 5 for general use. Nor does anyone else.

 

[Dilly]

Closest I’ll ever get to FSD is making the wife drive...

 

[MacJester]

Ahaha haha haha.

The mention of roundabouts on the FSD summary is still missing in action. And the damn thing can’t even really park itself.

Maybe, maybe L3 over the next couple of years, but something that can take the kids to school and then drive itself home is a loooooong way away.

 

[Battpower]

'Basic functionality for level 5' was his exact words

errr, maybe he means something like Level 2? Gotta start somewhere.

 

[Battpower]

I was coming back from Bordeaux yesterday on the A10 in full FSD with Nav. Once I got into the rhythm, my confidence soared as we changed lanes with ease, swooping past lesser mortals as they burnt their fossil fuels. Then, we approached the toll booths. Chimes, messages, braking, turning, swearing, embarrassment ensued as previous mortals sailed past me with quizzical looks on their faces.
Level 1- I think.

I know! No lanes at all. I had all kinds of fun on the autoroutes with FSD.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha
(breath)
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha haha ha ha ha

X 10000..... 0000000 ........000000

passes out......................

 

[Battpower]

My interpretation of his statement is: “Later this year we will have our major software rewrite finished, and that will give us all of the tools we need to get to level 5”. Does not mean he thinks he is close to releasing Level 5 for general use. Nor does anyone else.

What suggested that such reasonable comments have any place in this thread?

Having the tools to start doing the job .... so that in how many more years might it be finished?

 

[Battpower]

Try reversing the car with a large water droplet on the rear camera. Can't see anything.

Never mind the droplet of water.... after dusk you plain can't see much at all out of the rear view with MCU2 on MS.