Elon Tweet: No 'significantly new consumer-facing technology' in Model 3

[JohnSnowNW]

I stopped reading or caring at this point. The Lexus IS is not a fully electric car with great range and the ability to fuel up at home.

I think what people need to understand, and its very simple. If the model 3 is not profitable, Tesla is done. Period. The party is over. Because they have spent so much in Capex to build out Gigafactory1 to make the Model 3 possible. Profitable means some features that fanbois think are must haves are not really all that necessary. Tesla is not in the business of providing you with what you want, they are working to transition to all renewable energy and focusing on trying to take down the 2 biggest uses of that energy for people.. Solar + Battery and Car + Battery. Any of this other minutia is meaningless. Paddle shifters? really? What exactly does All weather drive have over the torque control from the electric motor?

When ever you try to think about what Tesla is doing, they are first and foremost trying to survive to the next step. There is no true competition yet, so you wont see them reaching to try to beat something that doesnt yet exist. When there is an awesome electric Lexus IS then maybe. Right now its the fugly Bolt and that's about it.

My guess is that by the end of 2018 they will have some type of refresh on the interior to help broaden the appeals. I think they will do the same with S/X by the end of this year to help better differentiate between 3 and S and help them better compete with the higher end S clash and 7 Series and what ever the big Lexus is.

Tesla claims too be competing with ICE, and most likely quite a few people are cross-shopping the Model 3 with other Premium sedans...or at least making comparisons. So, I think it's relevant to discuss what is on offer from non-BEV offerings. The Model 3 isn't the Bolt, and Tesla isn't trying to compete with the LEAF. Joe public doesn't necessarily care if the vehicle is electric, but they are going to care how the Model 3 stacks up against other vehicles...and that's who Tesla should be aggressively targeting.

That said, I don't think the Model 3's spartan dash is going to be as concerning as many on this forum seem to think...and I certainly expect the comfort level of the interior to be optioned enough to satisfy those forking over the cash for the upgraded interior package.

 

[Red Sage]

My guess is that by the end of 2018 they will have some type of refresh on the interior to help broaden the appeals. I think they will do the same with S/X by the end of this year to help better differentiate between 3 and S and help them better compete with the higher end S clash and 7 Series and what ever the big Lexus is.

A great rant that I agreed with right up to this paragraph. Tesla already had their 'refresh' of the Model S last year. There won't be another one before it is replaced with a new version of the car. The Model X hasn't even seen it's two-year anniversary. Please note that these Tesla Generation II vehicles have an eight-year product cycle. The Model S was refreshed in 2016, halfway through that product cycle, at the four year mark. So, if there is a facelift or refresh to change up the Model X, that probably won't happen until 2019. And the Model S will see a completely new version arrive in 2020.

They aren't going to turn Model S into a luxoboat. That's just not going to happen. Anyone that craves the 'comfort' or 'luxury' that is presented by Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, AUDI, or Porsche needs to lobby those companies to build fully electric cars because Tesla ain't gonna do it. Tesla already outsells the flagship vehicles from all those companies with the Model S.

There is no evidence that their #1 position would improve further by concentrating on 'broadening' their appeal. I think there is more evidence that attempting to do that is what lessens appeal. When Acura's product line was completely different from others, they led the so-called 'entry level luxury' segment. The instant they started to turn their cars into luxoboats with higher price points and alphanumeric nameplates they lost market share and became barely more than an also ran. Tesla will and should continue to do what is working for them, until such time that it isn't working anymore.

Watch these videos to get some insight into what Tesla's Design Team has as a core philosophy:

2014 Magical Team Honoree: Tesla Model S Design Team

Tesla Model S Head of Product Design (Behind the Scenes)

 

[Reciprocity]

A great rant that I agreed with right up to this paragraph. Tesla already had their 'refresh' of the Model S last year. There won't be another one before it is replaced with a new version of the car. The Model X hasn't even seen it's two-year anniversary.

Was referring to interior only. We already know what 2170 will come to S/X by end of year. The reason I think the interior refresh is that they never have, and they need to further differentiate between S and 3. I also think this is when you will see some kind of augmented reality like HUD that Panasonic has been showing off.

I'm not talking about lux boats, just better then they are now. The have the enthusiasts and techy folks, they will want to capture more of the S class and 7 series crowd. Still not talking about matching those brands, just make people used to that level not recoil in disgust.

 

[Red Sage]

Was referring to interior only. We already know what 2170 will come to S/X by end of year. The reason I think the interior refresh is that they never have, and they need to further differentiate between S and 3. I also think this is when you will see some kind of augmented reality like HUD that Panasonic has been showing off.

I'm not talking about lux boats, just better then they are now. The have the enthusiasts and techy folks, they will want to capture more of the S class and 7 series crowd. Still not talking about matching those brands, just make people used to that level not recoil in disgust.

I understand. But the interior saw its refresh already. The center console is now standard. Tesla doesn't have to get 'more of the S class and 7 series crowd'. They have already exceeded both audiences by a wide margin. Take a look at this:

2016 U.S. Sales of Flagship Vehicles
____ 1,478 ___ Acura RLX
____ 4,149 ___ AUDI A8 L
___ 12,918 ___ BMW 7-Series
___ 22,171 ___ Cadillac XTS
______ 782 ___ Genesis G90
____ 5,872 ___ Infiniti Q70
____ 3,834 ___ Jaguar XJ
______ 834 ___ Kia K900
____ 5,514 ___ Lexus LS
____ 5,261 ___ Lincoln Continental
____ 2,268 ___ Maserati Quattroporte
___ 18,803 ___ Mercedes-Benz S-Class
____ 4,403 ___ Porsche Panamera​

The Model S found 29,156 buyers in 2016 among U.S. buyers alone.

When people say that Tesla's cars should be 'better than they are now' it always leaves me perplexed. Because it isn't a complete statement. Sometimes they speak of 'quality', but then some of them actually mean 'execution' while others actually mean 'materials'. But honestly, most are speaking of 'style' and they really want the interior of a Model S to LOOK MORE LIKE other 'luxury' cars. Once again, that ain't gonna happen. Period.

Those who 'recoil in disgust' would have done so anyway. You can't win over everybody. The Model S has outsold the perennial #1 high end flagship, the Mercedes-Benz S-Class in three of the last four calendar years. The Model S has outsold the BMW 7-Series, AUDI A8 L, and Porsche Panamera in each of the last four calendar years straight -- both individually and in combined total sales.

2,268 people managed to convince themselves that they should get a Maserati Quattroporte last year. It could be that they were not impressed with the quality of execution or quality of materials on the interior of a Model S if they new about it, if they took the time to test drive one, and decided the Maserati was simply a better buy for their needs. Or, it could be they were all people who always wanted to own a Maserati and finally got one without shopping around at all.

It ain't about the interior. It's about the car. Tesla can improve their execution and get better materials from suppliers, but there is no need whatsoever to adjust their style and design, because they are... WINNING.

Please watch the videos I posted above. In the second one, the point you may need to see is illuminated beginning at about the 30:40 mark.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@Red Sage

Your comparison is a bit off though. Elon himself compared Model S to 5/6 Series (a bigger class), not 7 Series.

In the case of BMW/Audi/Mercedes Benz, those 5/6 Series vehicles (and equivalents) are "eating" into 7 Series (and equivalent) sales, unlike in the case of Model S...

 

[Red Sage]

@Red Sage

Your comparison is a bit off though. Elon himself compared Model S to 5/6 Series (a bigger class), not 7 Series.

In the case of BMW/Audi/Mercedes Benz, those 5/6 Series vehicles (and equivalents) are "eating" into 7 Series (and equivalent) sales, unlike in the case of Model S...

Once again, as I have noted multiple times in the past. The Tesla Model S competes directly against high end premium flagship vehicles. Often, people speak of this as a 'large luxury car' segment. Neither the BMW 5-Series, nor the BMW 6-Series is a flagship of the brand, nor a Large car. You don't have to believe me, but it's true, nonetheless. Evidence:

Per the EPA, the BMW 5-Series is a Midsize car. The BMW 6-Series is a Compact car. The BMW 7-Series and Tesla Model S are both Large cars. The EPA uses the combined volume of the Passenger and Luggage capacities of a vehicle to determine its size classification. Not the overall length. Not the wheelbase. Not the weight. Not price point. Not the press releases of the marketing department for a marque.

The actual amount of usable volume within the car itself. At 120 cubic feet or more, a vehicle qualifies as Large. The Model S just barely qualifies, but it does. At 110 cubic feet to 119 cubic feet, a vehicle qualifies as Midsize, as the 5-Series, Honda Civic and Accord, Toyota Corolla and Camry do and the Tesla Model ☰ likely will. At 100 cubic feet to 109 cubic feet, a vehicle qualifies as Compact, as are the BMW 5-Series and 3-Series sedans.

Trust me. I know what I'm doing.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@Red Sage

That is one way to look at it. But the reality is, the situations are not really comparable for sales numbers.

Audi's premium car (non-SUV) customers are split between A6-A8. BMW's 5-7 Series. Tesla has only Model S.

Model S, features-wise and starting-price wise, are also closer to that range, than just the high-end...

And finally, Elon Musk himself corrected a Twitter poster that Model S is not comparable to 7 Series, but 5/6 Series.

 

[Red Sage]

@Red Sage

That is one way to look at it. But the reality is, the situations are not really comparable for sales numbers.

Audi's premium car (non-SUV) customers are split between A6-A8. BMW's 5-7 Series. Tesla has only Model S.

Model S, features-wise and starting-price wise, are also closer to that range, than just the high-end...

And finally, Elon Musk himself corrected a Twitter poster that Model S is not comparable to 7 Series, but 5/6 Series.

It is not 'a' way to look at it, it is 'THE' way to look at it. Elon most recently clarified that the Model S will remain the flagship of the Tesla line. It is best to compare it against the flagships of other lines in sales.

Tesla even celebrated being the winner of the 'large luxury car' segment by including a reprint of a chart from a website that mentioned it within one of their quarterly reports to stockholders. It is, to my knowledge, one of the few times that anything official from Tesla even bothers to mention the word 'luxury' at all. Typically, they only use the word 'premium' instead when referring to their own cars. Keep in mind, the online article that listed such cars was also wrong, in that it listed cars such as the A6 and A7 as competitors to Model S as well -- and both of those are Midsize instead.

Look at the numbers, and you'll see there is no particular 'split' between those who buy AUDI A6, A7, or A8 at all. It is painfully clear that with only 4,149 sales during 2016 the A8 is not their top selling passenger car. Nor is the A7 at 6,558 that year. The A6 dwarfed sales of them both -- not 'split' as you claim, but demolished them -- by selling 18,686 vehicles to U.S. Customers during 2016. Saying their sales were 'split' makes it seems as if they were relatively even, and they were not. And every single one of them got their butts handed to them by the Model S with 29,156 units sold in 2016. Despite the level of 'luxury' they supposedly provide.

The BMW 5-Series barely outsold the Model S, at 32,408 units sold. The BMW 6-Series found fewer buyers than the A8 with only 3,947 units moved in 2016. These aren't competitors to the Model S, they compete with A6/A7 and E-Class. Speaking of which...

Some people may have claimed the Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class was a 'competitor' to the Model S. But look it up, and you'll find that for all its heft and length, it is a COMPACT car officially. Sometime during 2016 Mercedes-Benz got tired of its lagging sales and just began to roll its minute totals into those of the E-Class. That made for an overall total of 50,896 units that reached U.S. Customers during 2016. Once again, the E-Class is not a competitor to the Model S, because it is Midsize, and not the flagship of the line.

Tesla will have a Midsize car. It will be the Model ☰. It will be perfectly placed to compete against both lower end and higher end Midsize vehicles. It's gonna be fun.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@Red Sage

I am not disputing the EPA classification, I am just disagreeing with its relevance.

What I meant by split should be obvious: I meant that Model S captures sales potential from a number of differently sized vehicles, whereas Audi, BMW etc. split their capture potential amongst a number of vehicles. Meaning: Model S is being bought by people coming from not only Audi A8/7 Series, but also from Audi A6/5 Series, and - given its unique nature as a large-battery EV - from many more classes...

Indeed, the fact that Audi A6/A7 sell so much more than A8 is telling. After all, they are closer to Model S in both actual car size (not some theoretical calculation) as well as price, than Audi A8 is. Model S also sells much more than Audi A8, not surprisingly... BUT Audi A6-A8 combined (the full range similar to Model S) sells much more than Model S.

Look, I don't dispute the fact that Model S is an excellent and versatile vehicle that has been able to grab marketshare from a range of vehicles, from a lowly Prius to much higher-end Germans. This is a huge accomplishment from a relative start-up like Tesla! But to simply compare it amongst luxury models is disingenious. That is not the whole truth.

As a personal anecdote, my previous car was an Audi A8, then a Model S. I also have owned two Audi A6s (still own one). It remains my opinion Model S is closer to an Audi A6 than it is to an Audi A8 in, well, pretty much everything.

 

[melindav]

The 2017 IS Line -- The boldly restyled IS line not only turns heads on the road, it even refuses to go unnoticed while parked.

a neighbor of mine has an IS, and it turns heads, but not sure in a good way (IMO, of course).

 

[Reciprocity]

@Red Sage if you love the Lexus is so much and think the 3 should mimic it, you should look up the sales numbers there cuz I never heard of 400000-500000 reservations for those.

 

[Red Sage]

@Red Sage

I am not disputing the EPA classification, I am just disagreeing with its relevance.

What I meant by split should be obvious: I meant that Model S captures sales potential from a number of differently sized vehicles, whereas Audi, BMW etc. split their capture potential amongst a number of vehicles. Meaning: Model S is being bought by people coming from not only Audi A8/7 Series, but also from Audi A6/5 Series, and - given its unique nature as a large-battery EV - from many more classes...

Indeed, the fact that Audi A6/A7 sell so much more than A8 is telling. After all, they are closer to Model S in both actual car size (not some theoretical calculation) as well as price, than Audi A8 is. Model S also sells much more than Audi A8, not surprisingly... BUT Audi A6-A8 combined (the full range similar to Model S) sells much more than Model S.

Look, I don't dispute the fact that Model S is an excellent and versatile vehicle that has been able to grab marketshare from a range of vehicles, from a lowly Prius to much higher-end Germans. This is a huge accomplishment from a relative start-up like Tesla! But to simply compare it amongst luxury models is disingenious. That is not the whole truth.

As a personal anecdote, my previous car was an Audi A8, then a Model S. I also have owned two Audi A6s (still own one). It remains my opinion Model S is closer to an Audi A6 than it is to an Audi A8 in, well, pretty much everything.

Wait... 'full range similar to Model S'...? Dude. Seriously? The AUDI A6 starts at $47,600. You'd have to go back in time and get a Tesla Model S 40 with full Federal tax credit plus generous State incentives to have any hope of getting a car with anywhere near that final low cost from Tesla.

You want to add all the sales of the A6, A7, and A8 L together, just to make a frickin' point? C'mon, MAN! Will you want to do the same thing when the Model ☰ is available? Will that be 'fair' when the three vehicles offered by Tesla in the U.S. are outselling every SUV and Sedan and Coupe offered by the entire AUDI division? WHEN that happens, people will say the comparison is 'unfair' too! Tesla cannot win for anything if you keep moving the frickin' goalposts!

Let's look at this rationally.

During 2016 sales of AUDI A6, A7, and A8 L combined came to 29,393 units, just barely more than the 29,156 of Model S alone. That is not 'much more' than Model S at all! It is 237 units! the Model S by itself sold 99% as many vehicles as the three top-of-the-line AUDI passenger cars combined! Those AUDIs are cars that have starting prices from $47,600 to $82,500. The lowest of those is 70% the price of the base Model S today. It is composed of vehicles that are both Midsize and Large. The Model S is 6 cubic feet larger than the A6, but only one cubic foot larger than the A7. FYI... The original A8 (without the 'L') was Midsize as well, the Model S was 5 cubic feet larger. It went away in 2015, but sales have continued to drop, once again, despite the size and 'luxury' the A8 L offers.

Let's look at it individually.

• The Model S outsold the A8 L by a 7.02:1 ratio. The Model S outsold the A7 by a 4.45:1 ratio. The Model S outsold the A6 by a 1.56:1 ratio.
• The Model S matched 90% of 5-Series sales. The Model S outsold the 6-Series by a 7.39:1 ratio. The Model S outsold the 7-Series by a 2.26:1 ratio.
• The Model S matched 57% of E-Class/CLS-Class sales. The Model S outsold the S-Class by a 1.55:1 ratio.
• The Model S outsold the Porsche Panamera by 6.62:1.
• The Model S outsold the Lexus LS by 5.29:1.

And all this with the Model S, a car that was never meant to be a mass market product, and that many detractors claim is 'not luxurious enough'. Tell me, do your really need the Model S to outsell all of the cars within these product lines combined before you will grant Tesla a win? Or, will you simply move the goalposts again?

 

[Red Sage]

@Red Sage if you love the Lexus is so much and think the 3 should mimic it, you should look up the sales numbers there cuz I never heard of 400000-500000 reservations for those.

Perhaps you have not seen my other posts on the subject. I am not impressed by 'luxury' in any way. I merely called out Lexus IS as one of several vehicles that some who have been vocally dismayed by the interior of the Model ☰ may consider more appropriate for the market segment. You intimated that Tesla should put more effort into the concept, so that they could sell more cars by broadening their audience. I have merely provided evidence that may not be true at all. Once again, for the record, I believe that 'luxury' interiors are naught more than window dressing that commands premium pricing and enormous profit margins.

 

[Red Sage]

I was going to do a listing of the Feature Set for AUDI A4, but the AUDI website won't allow me to copy and paste, and there is no way I'm going to retype that long list... So check for yourself if you are interested:

2017 Audi A4 Sedan: quattro® | Price & Specs | Audi USA

 

[Reciprocity]

You intimated that Tesla should put more effort into the concept, so that they could sell more cars by broadening their audience. I have merely provided evidence that may not be true at all. Once again, for the record, I believe that 'luxury' interiors are naught more than window dressing that commands premium pricing and enormous profit margins.

To me it's more about differentiation between the 3 and S/X and they expect the 3 to satisfy a market segment that includes lower end 5 series and E class Benz. This is partially why the S60 is going away and maybe even S75 at some point when the 3 can fulfill that market.

Tesla only had 3 models, they each have to be able to address a broader market then BMW or Mercedes. If you look at the total number of vehicles sold our year by BMW, Tesla can match that or exceed that in 2018 with only 3 models. To do that, each model has to be able to cross segments in the markets. S will need to be M5 up to 6 and 7 series. The model 3 will need to satisfy the 3, 4 and low end 5 series market. S/X will need to be refreshed by the end of 2018 to accomplish that. I'm not talking about ultra luxurious, just not as plain as they are today. Currently S/X has just enough lux to be considered luxury. My prediction is end of 2017 with 2170 and some kind of HUD similar to what Panasonic has shown. It requires camera in the car to track the drivers head and eyes to create a sort of augmented reality that is projected out in front of the driver. That's my prediction, I'll be back here eating Crow if I'm wrong.

Model 3 can then have this HUD as an option sometime in 2018. It won't be in the 3 at release because they don't need anymore demand at this time. They also need to build the 20% smaller 3 at 50% of the cost of the S60. That's not easy. That means every part needs to cost half as much and require half as much labor to manufacture, ship and deliver.

Failure to do so is not an option. If they fail to make the 3 and at good margins, it will be the end of Tesla. It's infinitly harder to do so at 35k then it was at 100k for the S. In this context your arguments are silly and but well thought out.

You could say that maybe they don't need HW2. But that's silly because they need the safety features, and they need to win the autonomous race as much as they need the 3 to be successful and to do that they need the data from the 500000 3s in the wild.

What else could be sacrificed? And frankly, they don't agree with you that the lack of an instrument cluster is an issue. They just don't care that it bothers you...

"You won't care."

You need to find a way to cope. Because there really isn't any other viable electric option.

 

[Reciprocity]

was going to do a listing of the Feature Set for AUDI A4, but the AUDI website won't allow me to copy and paste, and there is no way I'm going to retype that long list... So check for yourself if you are interested:

No one on this forum cares about what Audi is doing with ICE vehicles. It's meaningless. When Audi comes out with a 215+ Mile range electric A4, and it's only 35k. Then it will matter. Until then, it's meaningless to the success and survival of Tesla.

 

[Red Sage]

No one on this forum cares about what Audi is doing with ICE vehicles. It's meaningless. When Audi comes out with a 215+ Mile range electric A4, and it's only 35k. Then it will matter. Until then, it's meaningless to the success and survival of Tesla.

Wow. It's already been explained that I added this information as a point of reference. You don't have to look at it. Please, go ahead and put me on [IGNORE], then you won't have to be bothered with my posts. From my point of view, if someone is going to be arguing points, they should do so from an informed position.

 

[Red Sage]

To me it's more about differentiation between the 3 and S/X and they expect the 3 to satisfy a market segment that includes lower end 5 series and E class Benz. This is partially why the S60 is going away and maybe even S75 at some point when the 3 can fulfill that market.

It will not be necessary to 'satisfy' those markets by doing things the same way that others have. Tesla does not exist to be the biggest automobile company in the world. They exist to offer an example of what can be done with electric vehicles. The goal has been to prove that a compelling electric vehicle could be built affordably and sold profitably on a mass market scale. The Model ☰ will accomplish that goal.

The hope is that by providing that example, acting as both the carrot and the stick, Tesla can lead the traditional automobile manufacturers to the promised land of sustainable transportation with long range electric vehicles that do not suffer the compromises that had been foisted upon them as compliance cars. Tesla will show them how to do it, offer them all the help they need in good faith. And, Tesla will correct them if they get out of line by beating the utter crap out of them in sales, diminishing their market share year over year until they fade away. Tesla knows they cannot do it all alone.

 

[ecarfan]

Nicely said. That is also the way I view Tesla. It cannot possibly build multiple models so as to compete in every car market niche, nor does it have to do so to fundamentally change the car industry and achieve its goal of converting the world's land transport fleet to vehicles powered by sustainable energy.

It will not be necessary to 'satisfy' those markets by doing things the same way that others have. Tesla does not exist to be the biggest automobile company in the world. They exist to offer an example of what can be done with electric vehicles. The goal has been to prove that a compelling electric vehicle could be built affordably and sold profitably on a mass market scale. The Model ☰ will accomplish that goal.

The hope is that by providing that example, acting as both the carrot and the stick, Tesla can lead the traditional automobile manufacturers to the promised land of sustainable transportation with long range electric vehicles that do not suffer the compromises that had been foisted upon them as compliance cars. Tesla will show them how to do it, offer them all the help they need in good faith. And, Tesla will correct them if they get out of line by beating the utter crap out of them in sales, diminishing their market share year over year until they fade away. Tesla knows they cannot do it all alone.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Nicely said. That is also the way I view Tesla. It cannot possibly build multiple models so as to compete in every car market niche, nor does it have to do so to fundamentally change the car industry and achieve its goal of converting the world's land transport fleet to vehicles powered by sustainable energy.

By the way, I agree.

I think Tesla will do just fine with a lesser number of models. That said, I think Tesla would be wise to make that lesser number of models comprised of very versatile models that can target multiple classes or niches in one car. Model S is that type of vehicle, it can appeal to an Audi A6 customer, an Audi A7 customer, even an Audi A8 customer. Heck, it has appealed to Prius customers.

Model 3, as a sedan, and Model X as a bit of a weirdmobile with strange doors and limited folding in 6/7 seaters are not quite as versatile. Model S is genius in the breadth that it covers. It is truly a job very well done by Tesla.