Elon tweets - count @ 198k & rethinking prod - east coast doomed?

[TaoJones]

Always thought it curious that CO offers $6K and CA just $2.5K. Rationalizations and excuses aside, it will be interesting to see how State participation changes once the federal tax credit goes away.

Of course, this will be after most of the States penalize alt-fuel owners for having the temerity to not pollute. Er, to not pay gas taxes ostensibly in support of road budgets.

Wouldn't mind seeing an ICE tax for contributing to air pollution-related deaths from lung cancer. Am sure NADA would fight that one, yeah.

 

[luvnMyTS]

I think east coaster's are getting worried about nothing.

Best I can tell, employees get first dibs. Current owners get next priority. Of the current owners, those on the west coast get first crack at it since they're closest. After that, I think it just turns into orders based on your place in line. I think the West to East priority will only relate to the early orders for existing owners. For those out of the country, that's probably a different story. Would assume the US will have it's preorders filled before the rest of the world. If you're not in the US, probably looking at 2020 at the earliest.

 

[souslik]

Would assume the US will have it's preorders filled before the rest of the world. If you're not in the US, probably looking at 2020 at the earliest.

No way. Judging from S and X I'd guess first deliveries in Europe will occur no later than one year after production start. Maybe more of a hope than a guess, though.

 

[StudMuffin]

I think priority is easy to do
1. Employees west to east(would think almost all in Cal)
2. Existing Tesla owners west to east
The next priority is just a guess but easily done by time blocks
3. First 24 hour time block or could be in store orders first day west to east
4. Second day orders west to east
As the reservations slow down they might move to week or month time blocks. And on down the line as well as other parts of the world in there somewhere.

 

[Tezlah]

Only time will tell, but as an East Coast line waiter like you, even though I was near the front of the line (well 35th out of 300), I think will be lucky if I get the car before 2019 unless I order the larger battery and AWD, which means >$50,000 (most likely). And that's if Tesla is on time.

With ~100,000 people ahead of me (West coasters, Midwest, fully optioned) I (we) just can't expect to get a Model 3 within 12 months of the first one rolling off the line. Tesla hasn't even delivered 100,000 vehicles in the US since their founding. To expect that in less than a year is too optimistic.

The tax credit being phased by time is nice - if 200,000 is Q2 2018, then a Q1 2019 gets me $3750, Q2-Q3 at least gets $1875.

I have the same fear, as an east coast non-owner that stood in line early on the 31st, however..

Tesla only said that deliveries would START on the west coast and move east. They did not say all west coast deliveries will be fulfilled first, then move east. They simply said deliveries will START on the west coast... I interpret this as, west coast people who ordered in-store on the 31st will be before me, then mid-west in-store orders on the 31st; then east coasters who ordered in-store on the 31st.

That would put people who ordered in store on the east coast on the 31st at no further back than 75-100K (probably much closer, knowing that 115K WORLDWIDE reservations were made by reveal time)

If Tesla delivers 150K Model 3s by the end of 2018, people like you and I will be in relatively good shape. I'm guessing mid-late 2018 delivery time, even if you're ordering just a few options, but maybe I'm overly optimistic.

Am I missing something?

 

[Bimbels]

I have the same fear, as an east coast non-owner that stood in line early on the 31st, however..

Tesla only said that deliveries would START on the west coast and move east. They did not say all west coast deliveries will be fulfilled first, then move east. They simply said deliveries will START on the west coast... I interpret this as, west coast people who ordered in-store on the 31st will be before me, then mid-west in-store orders on the 31st; then east coasters who ordered in-store on the 31st.

That would put people who ordered in store on the east coast on the 31st at no further back than 75-100K (probably much closer, knowing that 115K WORLDWIDE reservations were made by reveal time)

If Tesla delivers 150K Model 3s by the end of 2018, people like you and I will be in relatively good shape. I'm guessing mid-late 2018 delivery time, even if you're ordering just a few options, but maybe I'm overly optimistic.

Am I missing something?

Well, maybe. (You're missing something.) they will be starting with higher optioned cars. So it's not going to go by the reservation list according to who was in line when. It will probably go by battery size/P option firet. X owners will attest there doesn't seem to be logic (as they interpret the list.)

 

[rnelsonee]

I have the same fear, as an east coast non-owner that stood in line early on the 31st, however..

Tesla only said that deliveries would START on the west coast and move east. They did not say all west coast deliveries will be fulfilled first, then move east. They simply said deliveries will START on the west coast... I interpret this as, west coast people who ordered in-store on the 31st will be before me, then mid-west in-store orders on the 31st; then east coasters who ordered in-store on the 31st.

That would put people who ordered in store on the east coast on the 31st at no further back than 75-100K (probably much closer, knowing that 115K WORLDWIDE reservations were made by reveal time)

If Tesla delivers 150K Model 3s by the end of 2018, people like you and I will be in relatively good shape. I'm guessing mid-late 2018 delivery time, even if you're ordering just a few options, but maybe I'm overly optimistic.

Am I missing something?

Oh you might be right (although as the other commentor noted, options are a big factor). I'm just a cynic I do expect some East coasters to get their Model 3 before some West coasters sure - it depends on Tesla's motivation. If they just want to have a small 10,000 for easy observation or repair, that's fine. But I'd bet it's because it's cheaper to deliver to LA than to NoVa, so Tesla is only incentivized to deliver to us after the publicity starts to get negative enough.

Also were you at Tyco or the Mall by chance? I was at the Tyco service center (35th in line) - it was fun.

 

[jerry33]

But can they do that many in addition to the Model S and X's that they have to build?

They have plenty of space and the M3 can't be built on the same production lines, so it should be possible. I'd expect the first year to be low just like the first Model S year was slow. However, M3 production won't affect S or X production.

 

[roguenode]

Always thought it curious that CO offers $6K and CA just $2.5K. Rationalizations and excuses aside, it will be interesting to see how State participation changes once the federal tax credit goes away.

Of course, this will be after most of the States penalize alt-fuel owners for having the temerity to not pollute. Er, to not pay gas taxes ostensibly in support of road budgets.

Wouldn't mind seeing an ICE tax for contributing to air pollution-related deaths from lung cancer. Am sure NADA would fight that one, yeah.

EV proponents in Colorado worked with the state legislature to get the current rebate in place. The tax rebate formula is base retail of the car x battery size (in kWH / 100. There's a cap at $6000, which the model 3 should hit. It is in place through 2021. As a tradeoff, Colorado EV owners each pay and additional EV fee of $50 with their annual car registration, a portion of that goes to funding public EV charging stations (Level 2). It's one of the better state models I've seen and I recommend those that want to push their state representatives to take a closer look at it.

I am a non-owner/employee and will likely get a middle spec 3 (45k or so) car. My expectation is half the fed rebate and the full CO rebate, combining for $10,750 rebates the year following my delivery. One of the many benefits of living in this state. We definitely envy CA's SC network though.

 

[Tezlah]

Oh you might be right (although as the other commentor noted, options are a big factor). I'm just a cynic I do expect some East coasters to get their Model 3 before some West coasters sure - it depends on Tesla's motivation. If they just want to have a small 10,000 for easy observation or repair, that's fine. But I'd bet it's because it's cheaper to deliver to LA than to NoVa, so Tesla is only incentivized to deliver to us after the publicity starts to get negative enough.

Also were you at Tyco or the Mall by chance? I was at the Tyco service center (35th in line) - it was fun.

I was at the Tyco Sercice Center, about 45th or so in line, so not too far back from you. Great experience!

 

[CT200h]

IT would be nice to have a regional breakdown of the 232,000 or so orders . remember for all of us in the USA we are lucky to be 1st in the worldwide scheme of deliveries. west coast 1st then the rest of the usa. 100,000 or more of the reservations could be from other countries and not affect us at all.

BTW I was at Tyco rd around 10:30am, about 150 plus in front of me but I was finished by 11:50am

 

[pmich80]

No because the US tax credit only applies to the first 200,000 cars they sold in the US. They have sold plenty overseas and will continue to without any affect to the US tax credit.

that is actually incorrect. theyre phasing it over the next few quarters after they sell 200,000. So individuals in the following 2 quarters after they sell 200,000 will still get the full tax credit then half of that the following 3rd quarter and then 1/4th of the last quarter.

 

[MassModel3]

So consider this:
If a car delivery truck can hold 10 cars, and that one truck is delivering between zero and 300 miles from the factory (150 mile average one way, 300 mile average round trip), then by the time the truck has 6,000 miles on it it could theoretically deliver 20 loads, or 200 cars. If that same truck were to deliver to the east coast, it could deliver 10 cars with a return trip for the next load.

The deliveries to the west coast makes complete sense when looked at in this way. Tesla wants to get as many cars out the door as fast as they can, and east coast deliveries just don't make that happen.

At some point they weighed the difference between profit for highly optioned cars to the east coast versus low to no options delivered abundantly to he west coast. Where the graphed profit margins for each of these crosses is where Tesla draws the line to deliver to new areas.

Unfortunately, the next logical conclusion is that the more reservations they get up front, the longer the delay will be for the east coast because there are going to be more highly optioned west coasters who will keep the profit margins from shifting east as soon as they otherwise would.

 

[Justmurr]

I ordered not long after 10am EST...but I think as an east coaster who isn't a current owner it would prudent to not count on getting much in the way of a federal credit.....I will be optioning my model 3 as if I'm paying full price.
Back to waiting.

 

[deonb]

So consider this:
If a car delivery truck can hold 10 cars, and that one truck is delivering between zero and 300 miles from the factory (150 mile average one way, 300 mile average round trip), then by the time the truck has 6,000 miles on it it could theoretically deliver 20 loads, or 200 cars. If that same truck were to deliver to the east coast, it could deliver 10 cars with a return trip for the next load.

Why not just use one of the trucks that come from Detroit and Indiana that delivers, you know... the other 99% of cars being sold in California, and send them back out full?

 

[JBare]

IT would be nice to have a regional breakdown of the 232,000 or so orders . remember for all of us in the USA we are lucky to be 1st in the worldwide scheme of deliveries. west coast 1st then the rest of the usa. 100,000 or more of the reservations could be from other countries and not affect us at all.

BTW I was at Tyco rd around 10:30am, about 150 plus in front of me but I was finished by 11:50am

That would be nice. I was I. the mall at 10:20, I'd say about 150 in line ahead of me. By the time I walked I. To order I guesstimated another 50 behind me.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Elon max out that Fed rebate; as in making sure the 200,000th car was sold on day 1 of a quarter to help out the most Teslonians for their support.

 

[EinSV]

The great thing about so many reservations flooding in is that it gives Tesla better insight on how to plan their factories so they are producing the right number of cars for the demand from the get-go.

Elon has already said they need to rethink production in light of the number of reservations. It is highly likely that a second production factory will be in the works soon, probably either in China (most likely) or Europe. With a factory or factories built to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles right off the bat (after a little break-in period) the ramp-up will be much faster than what most people anticipate, and people who have already ordered (wherever they live) are likely to get their Model 3s sooner than they might expect.

After Elon and Tesla have a chance to rethink production in light of the huge number of Model 3 reservations, we will likely hear more about Tesla's plans to accelerate the ramp-up, including targeting max capacity at Fremont sooner than expected and very likely a new factory to expand beyond the capacity at Fremont. Then everyone, regardless of where they live, will get their Model 3s sooner than many on this thread are predicting.

 

[eloder]

So consider this:
If a car delivery truck can hold 10 cars, and that one truck is delivering between zero and 300 miles from the factory (150 mile average one way, 300 mile average round trip), then by the time the truck has 6,000 miles on it it could theoretically deliver 20 loads, or 200 cars. If that same truck were to deliver to the east coast, it could deliver 10 cars with a return trip for the next load.

The deliveries to the west coast makes complete sense when looked at in this way. Tesla wants to get as many cars out the door as fast as they can, and east coast deliveries just don't make that happen.

At some point they weighed the difference between profit for highly optioned cars to the east coast versus low to no options delivered abundantly to he west coast. Where the graphed profit margins for each of these crosses is where Tesla draws the line to deliver to new areas.

Unfortunately, the next logical conclusion is that the more reservations they get up front, the longer the delay will be for the east coast because there are going to be more highly optioned west coasters who will keep the profit margins from shifting east as soon as they otherwise would.

It doesn't quite work that way. For one, trains are very popular for moving cars over great distances. Secondly, the truck can take cars back on a return trip. The trucks (and freight in general) often have multiple stops, routes, tracks, etc. so that it takes a few weeks or more to complete one round trip.

I personally (just a guess) believe the west coast priority is going to be minimal, just to help account for the time zone difference and help keep cars in high infrastructure areas in case of early issues.

 

[MassModel3]

It doesn't quite work that way. For one, trains are very popular for moving cars over great distances. Secondly, the truck can take cars back on a return trip. The trucks (and freight in general) often have multiple stops, routes, tracks, etc. so that it takes a few weeks or more to complete one round trip.

I personally (just a guess) believe the west coast priority is going to be minimal, just to help account for the time zone difference and help keep cars in high infrastructure areas in case of early issues.

A bit after I posted I considered the train piece. Yes, a huge amount of freight and vehicles are quickly transported across the country by train, and I would love to see trains with 2 or 3 hundred Model 3's crossing the country, and it'll probably happen eventually, but local deliveries will always go just a bit more quickly than long distance deliveries. But as you point out, taking trains into consideration lessens the bleak output I initially outlined. Bear in mind, too, that the vehicles need to be transported both to and from a train yard, adding time and logistics to the transport process. Local deliveries don't need all those steps -- put the car on a truck and the next stop is a service center, versus truck to train to truck to service center.

As for trucks taking cars both directions, yes, that will absolutely be the case. But the fact of the matter is that we're only talking about Moel 3's outbound from Fremont. Return haulers carrying Fords and Chevy's does nothing to move more Model 3's, it only provides for more trucks on the road that Tesla can use for transporting. Filling the load in both directions helps the truckers, but doesn't really move more of the vehicles coming from a given plant.

 

[eloder]

As for trucks taking cars both directions, yes, that will absolutely be the case. But the fact of the matter is that we're only talking about Moel 3's outbound from Fremont. Return haulers carrying Fords and Chevy's does nothing to move more Model 3's, it only provides for more trucks on the road that Tesla can use for transporting. Filling the load in both directions helps the truckers, but doesn't really move more of the vehicles coming from a given plant.

That's just how freight works. Tesla (and other automakers) aren't waiting for one specific truck to come to and from destinations. They pay more for the initial trip to go longer distances, sure, but they don't have any additional wait time whatsoever related to a return trip. Whether Tesla sends 100k vehicles to the east coast over a month or over a year, it's going to cost exactly the same.