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Elon's demand "secret weapon" ...what is it?

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I think you might be onto something with the Solar City statement. Imagine if Solar City sold the Tesla as a mobile Uninterruptible Power Supply for home use only - it technically would not be an automobile for this usage and could legally circumvent the legal terminology used to define an automobile - since it would be a dual use item - it could be sold through two channels - one by Tesla as a automobile in the states that allow it and the second through Solar City as a home backup solution....

If the dealerships can pass asinine laws --

I think my Tesla is really just a mobile UPS...(for home use only) - where do I sign up? I just bought a Honda PowerStroke 6800, would love to have fully redundant systems, Solar, UPS, GRID and Generator options on my home!
 
Thinking more about EM's comments, I came t 2 conclusions:
1) He wouldn't have to deploy the secret weapon if he didn't need to, or if the timing wasn't right.
2)Based on premise #1 , I think the weapon is "Marketing and Advertising". Pretty boring compared to all the other ideas, but I think the way he stated the comment it would be this basic.

Piggy backing other ideas:
I would like to order my model S from Amazon, and have them deliver it to my house using their ariel drone :biggrin:.
Or go to Apple to buy an iPhone, "..and almost forgot, can you add a model S to that."
 
My hope is that it is something that increases production. If they do something to sell a lot more than they are currently, every new buyer waits longer. I don't believe they can make rentals--they can't get them into the hands of buyers right now because of production constraints. Isn't everything going really well, except they can't make them fast enough?
 
Hold on, I missed something. Can someone explain to me the point of unleashing a secret weapon to drive demand when your company is production constrained?

Once the GF is online, OK, but now? I don't see the point.

Unless, of course, they plan on having resolved certain production constraints and then release the secret weapon. But as jerry33 said, it was delivered as an 'if we need to, we have a secret weapon that should drive demand and answer the dealerships' - I'd have to go back to check to make sure, but I think his comment was in response to a demand question. No guarantee they'd release the secret weapon. I'd view it as a means of covering the bases depending on all sorts of possibilities that could happen throughout this year.
 
My hope is that it is something that increases production. If they do something to sell a lot more than they are currently, every new buyer waits longer. I don't believe they can make rentals--they can't get them into the hands of buyers right now because of production constraints. Isn't everything going really well, except they can't make them fast enough?

Well that would be a supply-side secret weapon then wouldn't it? :)
 
I've already posted this on the Apple-car thread, but here's my guess for the 'secret weapon' to increase demand:


Apple is working with Tesla on the infotainment/autopilot systems, and Tesla will sign a multi-year exclusive deal with Apple in which only Teslas will be shown with the Apple (CarPlay?) software at Apple stores (although other car brands could have Apple software). If you want to so see the new product integrated in an automobile, Apple stores will have some Teslas available. Once in the car the Apple Genius will say, "You really can't try autopilot on a stationary car, so we'll take it out on the road. But remember, this isn't a test drive. You're just evaluating the software." And then you'll press the accelerator in 'Insane' mode, and forget all about software. :wink:


Anyone will be able to 'test drive' a Tesla in all 50 states at hundreds of more locations. And the Apple addicts will now have the closest thing to an Apple car. (I don't buy for a second the rumours that Apple is actually interested in building a car from scratch.)
 
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Unless, of course, they plan on having resolved certain production constraints and then release the secret weapon. But as jerry33 said, it was delivered as an 'if we need to, we have a secret weapon that should drive demand and answer the dealerships' - I'd have to go back to check to make sure, but I think his comment was in response to a demand question. No guarantee they'd release the secret weapon. I'd view it as a means of covering the bases depending on all sorts of possibilities that could happen throughout this year.

I think this excerpt covers the section you are referencing.

from http://seekingalpha.com/article/290...arnings-call-transcript?page=2&p=qanda&l=last
Rod Lache

Hi, everybody. I apologize if this has been answered. I’d some phone problems here, but I was hoping you might be able to help us with what you see as the run rate of sales for Model S right now and that bridge to the 55,000. Should we look at the 40,000 deliveries or maybe it’s 46,000 if you annualize what you did and add in the delayed Model D? Is that a run rate, and then to get from here to 55,000, where is China now? What does it need to be and what actually are you including for the Model X this year?

Elon Musk
Yes. So [indiscernible] even if our sales in China were zero this year, zero, I’m still confident we could do the 55,000 cars, [they might be zero] [ph]. So as far as what the mix is between S and X, it’s really tricky, I wish I could tell you with accuracy, but it really depends on how the production ramp goes with the X when we start up this summer. And even small changes in that ramp can have quite a dramatic effect on X production.
Deepak Ahuja
So, actually for the calendar year because it’s late.
Elon Musk
Exactly.
Deepak Ahuja
Long-term makes no difference.
Elon Musk
Yes, exactly. If we are producing and I would say 800 Xs a week, and if - several weeks it’s like several thousand cars. So it’s just really - it’s really tricky to predict it from - I can much easier predict like next year. Assuming people like the car, that’s where you start to see, yes, I don’t know, 40,000, 30,000 40,000 at least. Maybe, 50,000, let’s call it 30,000 to 50,000 Xs next year.
Rod Lache
Okay. And clearly up until now as you pointed out, you’ve been able to hit all these numbers without any advertising and marketing.
Elon Musk
And no endorsements, and no discounts.
Rod Lache
Right, to get…
Elon Musk
We haven’t paid anyone to pretend that they like our car.
Rod Lache
Right, and…
Elon Musk
Which is a very important point.
Rod Lache
And no franchise dealers and you know all these things that you know - people had said that you might need to do, you’ve been able to do it without any of them. But I’m just curious about kind of longer-term to get to the volume objectives that you are looking for this year and beyond, is - are all of those in your view achievable while avoiding the franchise dealer model, while holding back on advertising and marketing and while in some cases even raising prices for example, in Europe to adjust for currency or any of those impediments to the demand objectives that you have and would you modify the strategy in any way to achieve these volume numbers?
Elon Musk
I think we’re going to be okay on the demand side for this year. I mean maybe something changes next year but I think we’ll be okay and I don’t think we’re going have to do a bunch of advertising or [indiscernible] with the dealers or anything like that this year and or discount the cars or anything like that. So if I - I do want to emphasize that whenever you feel like a celebrity or some prominent person driving our car they all paid full retail. There was no discount. We didn’t give them the car, they are buying the car and they are driving because they really believe in the car, not because someone paid them to pretend that they do. So we may give them credit for the people [indiscernible] brought the car. So yes, I think we - I do have a secret weapon on the demand side that will probably start to deploy later this year for demand generation. We’ll see how that goes. It isn’t totally necessary but I think and it could be pretty interesting, I could [indiscernible] dealers.
Rod Lache
Okay. And just one last question I had, you mentioned in your letter that the margin was pressured half by revenue and half by cost factors. The FX part of this was pretty clear but there was a comment in there about deferred autopilot revenue, could you just explain, maybe just elaborate a little bit on what you meant actually in that description of the margin variance?
Deepak Ahuja
On that particular one, Rod, we announced several features that the autopilot functionality or hardware will deliver. Those features - although the hardware is in the car, some of them will get activated through software releases later this year. And so based on the [indiscernible] aspect of revenue for accounting we had to defer some of that revenue into 2015. And I think it’s as simple as that. Yes.
Rod Lache
Okay. That variance versus the 28% original objective or is that versus - what was that comparison against?

It's not the most accurate transcript but its close enough.

"So yes, I think we - I do have a secret weapon on the demand side that will probably start to deploy later this year for demand generation. We’ll see how that goes. It isn’t totally necessary but I think and it could be pretty interesting"

- - - Updated - - -

Hold on, I missed something. Can someone explain to me the point of unleashing a secret weapon to drive demand when your company is production constrained?

Once the GF is online, OK, but now? I don't see the point.

currently they have enough preorders to be able to produce full out even if something like half of the orders cancel. If supply started to catch up to that demand they would need to prevent cancellations or get enough more orders to offset cancellations.

They've also had a problem with speculators buying cars just to immediately or after a very short time sell them again. It makes it hard for them to measure true demand levels. If buy/use/sell bubble burst and the demand dropped noticably he is saying they could easily spur demand. He doesn't think they will need to but he is assuring the analysts and stockholders that he can cover a couple of unforeseen dips in demand with other possible "levers".
 
I've already posted this on the Apple-car thread, but here's my guess for the 'secret weapon' to increase demand:


Apple is working with Tesla on the infotainment/autopilot systems, and Tesla will sign a multi-year exclusive deal with Apple in which only Teslas will be shown with the Apple (CarPlay?) software at Apple stores (although other car brands could have Apple software). If you want to so see the new product integrated in an automobile, Apple stores will have some Teslas available. Once in the car the Apple Genius will say, "You really can't try autopilot on a stationary car, so we'll take it out on the road. But remember, this isn't a test drive. You're just evaluating the software." And then you'll press the accelerator in 'Insane' mode, and forget all about software. :wink:


Anyone will be able to 'test drive' a Tesla in all 50 states at hundreds of more locations. And the Apple addicts will now have the closest thing to an Apple car. (I don't buy for a second the rumours that Apple is actually interested in building a car from scratch.)

Or from post 33

Given the statement was 'for demand side generation' AND related to battling the dealer situation. I'll go with a massive worldwide dealership distribution agreement with Apple. Overnight, every Apple Store will become an authorized dealer, CarPlay included. Concurrently delivering massive distributed demand at the lowest automotive customer acquisition cost in history, and immediately establishing 'dealerships' in every state (and every country).

Maybe I'm thinking too big here, but I believe Elon has this level in mind along with multiple Tera factories and Li-Ion mixing with and giving way to SuperCapacitance. This and more is why he's trying to tell you the opportunity here is Applesque in size, reach, and value....
 
For the record, the state laws that prohibit manufacturers from owning dealerships don't care, in the examples I've reviewed, whether (a) the cars are new or used, or (b) whether the manufacturer is selling its own cars or other manufacturers'. This knocks out some of the ideas kicked around so far.
 
I don't get this love fest with Apple. If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's probably still a duck. Just having Apple sell Tesla cars isn't going to be some magic bullet to get around the states auto franchise laws. First, Apple would need to apply to every state to become an auto dealer, and that doesn't just happen overnight. Second, once that happens, the dealer associations would be getting injunctions in one day to halt the sales of cars through Apple. Third, Apple has nothing significant to gain from such an arrangement, other than making enemies with the auto dealers and their associations.
 
For the record, the state laws that prohibit manufacturers from owning dealerships don't care, in the examples I've reviewed, whether (a) the cars are new or used, or (b) whether the manufacturer is selling its own cars or other manufacturers'. This knocks out some of the ideas kicked around so far.
Thx Robert. I was very skeptical on this one. You've squelched it, though I suspect there will be further posts advocating anyway.
 
Apple is working with Tesla on the infotainment/autopilot systems,

The number one reason to doubt this is that Tesla isn't using Apple Play, and is instead writing their own software. The number two reason is that if Apple becomes a dealer, Tesla automatically loses any claim to having their own stores so direct sales is out the window, the price of a Tesla goes up 30% or more (just like online books*), and Tesla's gross margin drops significantly as Apple will take a 30% cut.

* I'm really ticked off about online books. With no retail stores, no printing costs, and no transportation costs, the price of an ebook should be 50% less than a paperback book, instead it's the same. To add insult to injury, the online books appear to be just fed into an OCR and published. The few I have are replete with spelling errors and just plain wrong words without even any cursory editing.
 
How about political ads that expose the cronyism of the auto dealer associations? Nobody really likes the dealers, and when you see the political games they play you like them even less. Moreover, if you are a politician taking money from these guys, you really, really, really do not want the public to know what the game is. Just ask Chris Christie. Tesla has a lot to gain from shining a little light into situation.

how about Tesla ads like Lee Iacocca used to do? Just Elon in the frame with a Model S and Model X and him telling it like it is. "These are the best cars you can buy. They're electric and you never have to pay for gas ever again. Sadly though, were not allowed to sell them to you in certain states because we only sell direct our customers and not through dealers."
 
how about Tesla ads like Lee Iacocca used to do? Just Elon in the frame with a Model S and Model X and him telling it like it is. "These are the best cars you can buy. They're electric and you never have to pay for gas ever again. Sadly though, were not allowed to sell them to you in certain states because we only sell direct our customers and not through dealers."

That would backfire as people in those states wouldn't even try. I spend a lot of time at car shows explaining how easy it is to purchase a Tesla. Many are surprised you can get them here (most think you have to drive to CA to get one rather than just picking it up locally).