Elon's quote about FSD disappoints me

[insaneoctane]

I don't know if anyone else caught something that Elon said on the Q4 2018 conference call, but as an avid EAP user (and potential future FSD purchaser), I was honestly disappointed....

Sure. We have - we already have full self-driving capability on highway. So from highway on ramp to highway exit, including passing cars and going from one highway interchange to another, full self-driving capability is there.

In a few weeks, we'll be pushing update that will allow the option of removing stock confirmed in markets where regulators approve it, which we believe that will be the case in the U.S.

This implies that Tesla thinks that FSD is essentially "solved" on the freeway. I use EAP every day on my commute. It's certainly at it's best on the freeway, but I don't think it is FSD caliber yet. In stop and go traffic I trust it with my hands off the wheel, but at full speed with automatic lane changes? I think I was disappointed to hear that FSD wasn't going to take freeway driving to another level beyond EAP. It would have to in order for me to trust it more than EAP. Again, I love me some EAP like the biggest fanboy, but I understand it's limitations. I wouldn't call today's EAP ready to be labeled FSD!

 

[wcorey]

I don't know if anyone else caught something that Elon said on the Q4 2018 conference call, but as an avid EAP user (and potential future FSD purchaser), I was honestly disappointed....


This implies that Tesla thinks that FSD is essentially "solved" on the freeway. I use EAP every day on my commute. It's certainly at it's best on the freeway, but I don't think it is FSD caliber yet. In stop and go traffic I trust it with my hands off the wheel, but at full speed with automatic lane changes? I think I was disappointed to hear that FSD wasn't going to take freeway driving to another level beyond EAP. It would have to in order for me to trust it more than EAP. Again, I love me some EAP like the biggest fanboy, but I understand it's limitations. I wouldn't call today's EAP ready to be labeled FSD!

EAP isn't FSD. FSD requires the V3 chip which will be available to pre-purchasers of FSD. FSD is under the second round of employee testing. Not stunt drivers, not simulated driving by software engineers but Tesla employees. Even advanced summons seems to be likely an FSD feature as it is the car driving by itself in a crowded environment. That, I think, blurs the line between FSD and EAP. For myself, I've prepurchased both.

 

[WileyTheMan]

I love EAP. It's been a great driving assistance tool and it's good to hear there are more features/improvements coming for it. But I agree that FSD is a huge leap from EAP so I am happy to wait to see what is actually needed for it (HW/SW) and pay the extra cash for the upgrade when it gets regulatory approval.

 

[Achilles]

Maybe they do have capability and just haven't released it to us yet...I hope anyway.

 

[wcorey]

I love EAP. It's been a great driving assistance tool and it's good to hear there are more features/improvements coming for it. But I agree that FSD is a huge leap from EAP so I am happy to wait to see what is actually needed for it (HW/SW) and pay the extra cash for the upgrade when it gets regulatory approval.

Here's the thing. It may be some time before Congress gives regulatory approval. As I recall, Congress took ownership of approval for FSD so it wouldn't come out legal in one state and illegal in the adjacent state. The reason EAP requires you to have your hand(s) on the wheel is to drive home the fact you are still the driver, therefor no legal liability or regulatory issues. To be sure, a day will come when FSD does not require a driver in the driver seat. A day will come where a Tesla or some other FSD car no longer come with a steering wheel or pedals. That's a long way off. I suspect FSD will roll out this year but, as EAP requires, it will require the driver to maintain 'control' of the car. It'll do the moves, read speed limit signs, yield signs, stop signs, traffic lights, etc, but an actively aware driver must be in the driver seat. Again, that precedent has already been set with EAP.

 

[Az_Rael]

Maybe they do have capability and just haven't released it to us yet...I hope anyway.

Yeah, I just hope Elon was talking about a developer version during the call. It is not clear he was, but one can hope.


My other theory is we are starting to see the campaign to water down what FSD is and what we will be getting with the pre-purchased package before Tesla moves on to the next hardware release. This happened with AP1, so I would not be surprised at all. (AP1 was going to be on-ramp to off-ramp, stop light/stop sign was coming and you were going to be able to summon your car from anywhere in the country).

 

[wcorey]

Maybe they do have capability and just haven't released it to us yet...I hope anyway.

They absolutely do! It's in round 2 of testing by selected Tesla employees as opposed to stunt drivers or the trainers for police recruits. It will need the V3 chip which will be free for FSD purchasers.
It's tough to 'water down' the meaning of "Full Self Driving". It'll probably still require active driver participation, ala EAP, as for the driverless cars there would need to be heated camera cavities, heated ultrasonics cavities, redundant computers, etc.

 

[silentcorp]

I'm not sure how FSD will work, right now NOA suggest me to change lanes to a "quicker" one on the left when I have less than a mile to my exit on the right in heavy traffic. It can't see far enough ahead to make that call, there are many situations like that where human interaction is required. I think this all needs a lot more time in the oven before it's ready for prime time.

 

[commasign]

One thing to keep in mind is that when Elon speaks about autopilot and self driving, he's referring to the car he drives which is running development hardware and software many months ahead of what is in production. I think he forgets that the rest of us are 6 versions behind what he has.

 

[Jedi2155]

I think Elon is thinking about it from a "feature" perspective. Feature wise, FSD on the freeway is already here short two major things:
1 - requiring driver to physically engage turn stalk
2 - ability of the driver to not have to pay attention.

Otherwise, what other features are you asking for in terms of highway driving?

GIVEN THAT.....

Now as we should all know the difference between having a feature and how well it actually works, which is a far cry from what as end users we expect from FSD. I think Tesla will continue to figure out how to optimize self driving for the nearly infinite number of edge cases that come up in daily driving, but at this point its a refinement process rather than feature set creation.

 

[Glamisduner]

I think the key word is "capability". He does not mean that EAP actually works as FSD.
For example, my laptop has the capability to have 64gb of memory. But it currently has only 32gb.

 

[Peteski]

It's tough to 'water down' the meaning of "Full Self Driving". It'll probably still require active driver participation, ala EAP, as for the driverless cars there would need to be heated camera cavities, heated ultrasonics cavities, redundant computers, etc.

Yeah, EAP soon shuts down in bad weather when I can still easily drive the car myself. All it takes is a bit of snow or some heavy rain and it's over and out. I think we are still a million miles away from not requiring a human with a steering wheel.

 

[NHK X]

I think Elon is thinking about it from a "feature" perspective. Feature wise, FSD on the freeway is already here short two major things:
1 - requiring driver to physically engage turn stalk
2 - ability of the driver to not have to pay attention.

Otherwise, what other features are you asking for in terms of highway driving?

GIVEN THAT.....

Now as we should all know the difference between having a feature and how well it actually works, which is a far cry from what as end users we expect from FSD. I think Tesla will continue to figure out how to optimize self driving for the nearly infinite number of edge cases that come up in daily driving, but at this point its a refinement process rather than feature set creation.

Exactly.

 

[Mayhem]

I think he means the core functionality is there. And it is. But it's not perfect, and arguably not even that good. But with time the existing feature set will become more and more refined, such that even if they add no additional new features, a robust/refined NoAP will be what people expect as FSD on the interstate.

 

[insaneoctane]

Maybe I'm reading too much into what he said......The question that was asked that he was answering in my quote above is "When will customers start to see full self-driving features?" and his answer just sounded too much like "Well we've already solved it on the highway...." I'm sure there are many more layers to this, but if Tesla just took off the steering wheel "nag" and enabled lane changes thru NoAP without stalk confirmation for owners of FSD and said it was feature set #1 in FSD, I'd be totally NOT IMPRESSED.

 

[Knightshade]

Here's the thing. It may be some time before Congress gives regulatory approval. As I recall, Congress took ownership of approval for FSD so it wouldn't come out legal in one state and illegal in the adjacent state.

Literally none of that is accurate.

Self driving is determined at the state level- and is already legal in some states as long as the car otherwise follows all existing driving/traffic laws.

 

[Jedi2155]

Maybe I'm reading too much into what he said......The question that was asked that he was answering in my quote above is "When will customers start to see full self-driving features?" and his answer just sounded too much like "Well we've already solved it on the highway...." I'm sure there are many more layers to this, but if Tesla just took off the steering wheel "nag" and enabled lane changes thru NoAP without stalk confirmation for owners of FSD and said it was feature set #1 in FSD, I'd be totally NOT IMPRESSED.

I think there's still a misunderstanding here. FSD implies FSD in all road types surface and highway. If that was all Tesla does for FSD owners too, I'd be totally upset. I imagine we'll eventually get Stop Sign and Stop Light recognition though. Right turns seems relatively simple. Left turns are going to a monster to code against (double left turn with no lane markings, yields, etc.) though.

 

[LukasSwan]

I think Elon is thinking about it from a "feature" perspective. Feature wise, FSD on the freeway is already here short two major things:
1 - requiring driver to physically engage turn stalk
2 - ability of the driver to not have to pay attention.

Otherwise, what other features are you asking for in terms of highway driving?

GIVEN THAT.....

Now as we should all know the difference between having a feature and how well it actually works, which is a far cry from what as end users we expect from FSD. I think Tesla will continue to figure out how to optimize self driving for the nearly infinite number of edge cases that come up in daily driving, but at this point its a refinement process rather than feature set creation.

Sheesh . When I bought EAP in 2016 it said that automatic Lane changes on freeway were EAP. It's terrible that there is confusion about FSD.

 

[LukasSwan]

I think there's still a misunderstanding here. FSD implies FSD in all road types surface and highway. If that was all Tesla does for FSD owners too, I'd be totally upset. I imagine we'll eventually get Stop Sign and Stop Light recognition though. Right turns seems relatively simple. Left turns are going to a monster to code against (double left turn with no lane markings, yields, etc.) though.

No kidding. Remember, pedestrians have right of way in crosswalk. How is it supposed to make a decision about a pedestrian standing on the far corner reading their phone, when it is trying to turn left across two lanes of traffic.... Meanwhile the light that is way up above overhead turns yellow.

 

[aronth5]

It will certainly be telling if the announcement of the Model Y includes more cameras, and advanced radar.
I'm expecting that to happen but it will also send a clear message that the current hardware will not be capable of full FSD without the driver paying attention.
Then again I don't expect my Model 3 will ever be capable of full FSD with it's current package of cameras, ultrasonics and radar.
And I did purchase FSD so I will be able to experience the journey for better or worse.